Thursday 4/23/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 4/23 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 58 - 334 / $436.50 BEST BETS: 4 - 29 / $17.70

Best Bet: ALWAYS LOVE ME (4th)

Spot Play: SOOKIE (7th)


Race 1

(4) ENVIOUS HANOVER did show speed against better. Can move forward. (1) DENYITTOTHEEND has wheeled off three straight victories. Threat again from the fence. (3) GET THE LOOK was nailed for win honors last week.

Race 2

(5) CLIMATE HANOVER has tactical speed and is ready to pounce and score over this group. (2) MISS DOLLAR MAM is an upstate invader that rallied nicely to grab the score in her recent outing. (4) BIJOU THEATER can grab a share of the purse.

Race 3

(5) THUNDERS FURY should fit well against these. Can make some serious noise with a golden trip. (3) MYSTICAL WALTER put in a nice qualifier at Philly last time out. Might be a factor in here. (6) TIDEWATER TOMAHAWK got the job done two trips ago. Needs to step it up based on his last try.

Race 4

(1) ALWAYS LOVE ME moves to the fence where she was a sharp second two starts ago. Ready to get it done tonight. (2) LOCAL ART gets post relief after closing well last out for the placing. (3) SHELIKESITHERWAY was used up in the early stages last time around; not out of this.

Race 5

(5) STONEBRIDGE COWBOY was caught at the finish in his latest. He has been knocking at the door and is ready to atone for all the glory. (3) THUNDER NOISE took the pocket route home to victory in his last trip; very dangerous again. (2) BAZOOKA should fare well from the two slot. Watch out!

Race 6

(1) FLYING INSTRUCTOR has put in two seconds in a row. Moves now to the rail, where he might take these down the road for his first score of the year. (4) DANISHDUJOUR was nailed for the victory in his recent trip to the post; big threat. (5) LONG FIGHT HANOVER fits well in here and can't be counted out.

Race 7

(3) SOOKIE showed good late pace in her last two starts. With a fine-timed drive from Kakaley, she can make tonight a winning one. (2) NUTMEGS DESIRE gets post relief and it should help her cause for getting back on the winning track. (8) STAGE IT RIGHT flew home strong from the 8-hole last out.

Race 8

(3) SOMEPLACE SPECIAL scored two straight, now goes for a new barn plus gets the services of Brennan. Not out of the question for the hat trick. (5) AUCKLAND FLYER has tactical speed and fits with these. Main danger in this event. (2) KEEMOSABE gets a cozy post for a sharp outfit. Beware!

Race 9

(4) SHAWNEE DANCER was quite sharp upstate last out. Pacing mare is very capable of getting the job done with a perfect trip. (6) NO LIES took an easy lead in the stretch, but was nailed for the victory; threat. (3) MCEVER closed well for all the glory in her latest.

Race 10

(5) COCOA BEACH was very sharp in her last try. She is seeking her first victory of the year. This looks like a perfect spot for her to do just that. (2) HARMONY OAKS QUIKE put in two nice rallies. Should contend with these. (1) SUMMER SNOW gets the rail slot and is on the drop-down. Big factor.

Race 11

Pompano invader (2) JJS DOUGHNUT gets a cozy post to work with. He has tactical speed and it is good to see Sears with the assignment. Ready for action. (6) HARE CRAFT needs to return to his 4-2 trip to contend with this group; maybe. (5) MEETYOUATMIDNIGHT was sharp in his qualifier at Philly last out; ready for return to Yonkers.

Race 12

(8) TREVORS BEBE didn't race all that badly in her latest. Has the speed to overcome the eight slot and might have the ability to move forward. (3) GROUNDED closed well to nail down the place spot in her last try; main danger. (4) FOX VALLEY HERMIA will be closing in the final strides.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Rambam, 8-1
(6th) Seek to Destroy, 4-1


Evangeline Downs (1st) Forty One Won, 4-1
(2nd) Big Lil Red, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Mike the Hab, 8-1
(3rd) Shiloh, 3-1


Keeneland (4th) Fine Instincts, 9-2
(9th) Tia Flor, 8-1


Lone Star Park (5th) Gom Jabbar, 9-2
(9th) Darn Good, 3-1


Penn National (5th) Nina Smoked'm, 7-2
(6th) Diadema, 8-1


Pimlico (7th) Carolina Shag, 5-1
(9th) Big Feat, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Blackhawks (48-28) at Predators (47-25)

Date: April 23, 2015 9:30 PM EDT

If there was ever a scenario in which sports fans might prefer for their team to celebrate a series win in a visiting arena rather than their home city, this could be it.

The Nashville Predators organization has gone to great lengths to try to keep Chicago fans and their traditions out of Bridgestone Arena. That happens to be where the Central Division foes will meet Thursday night in Game 5 of their first-round series with the Blackhawks in a position to end the Predators' once-promising season.

The Predators have taken steps geared toward limiting options for Chicago fans to buy tickets for games in Nashville, and the organization has gone as far as electing to have the crowd sing the national anthem before games rather than a performer to silence Chicago fans' cheering of the anthem, as is part of the Blackhawks' home-ice tradition.

That tradition has in recent history included plenty of deep postseason runs, and the likelihood for another grew with Tuesday's 3-2 home win in three overtimes to give Chicago a 3-1 series edge.

Brent Seabrook scored a minute into the third extra session to make a 50-save effort from Scott Darling hold up.

Aside from the commanding series lead, there isn't much more that separates the teams. They've each scored 13 goals, while Nashville is 3 of 15 on the power play and Chicago is 2 of 15. Nashville's average shot advantage of 44.5-36.5 might be the most substantial difference. The Blackhawks have just found the net in both overtime games.

"Every game's been tight, every game's been on the line, a very competitive series," coach Joel Quenneville said. "Momentum's been shifting during games, and shift to shift for that matter."

Logic might lead one to think that would favor veteran Pekka Rinne, but it's been the inexperienced Darling who has stolen the spotlight - as well as Corey Crawford's starting job.

Darling took over after a 6-2 Game 2 loss in Nashville and won both home games. In three appearances in the series, all victories, the rookie has a .969 save percentage with an average of 42.3 saves per game. For the season, he's 12-4-0 with a .944 save percentage.

Continuing that in his first playoff start in Nashville is the next step, though he hasn't seen a huge drop-off away from the United Center. Darling is 7-3-0 with a .932 save percentage on the road, including a 3-1 victory in Nashville on Dec. 6.

Rinne, meanwhile, has seen his season fade along with the Predators'. He made 45 saves Tuesday, but fell to 8-13-4 with a .903 save percentage dating to Feb. 19 after going 34-7-2 with a .932 mark until that point.

Things have been especially bad with the team going 1-7-2 with 3.70 goals against dating to March 29.

"Our guys are a resilient group," said coach Peter Laviolette, who has been without defenseman Shea Weber and forward Mike Fisher due to lower-body injuries. "They will not cave. They will not go away quietly. They'll be ready to play Game 5, I promise you."

They might also be due for things to fall their way. Chicago has won six of eight meetings this season, though it holds just a 24-22 scoring edge and is 3 of 28 on the power play. The Predators have dropped seven of nine playoff games while conceding only a 25-22 scoring advantage.

Four of those 22 have come from a rejuvenated Colin Wilson in this series after the center went his last 15 games of the regular season without scoring.

The clubs' only other playoff series ended with the Blackhawks eliminating the Predators in Game 6 of the 2010 first round in Nashville. Chicago has won seven of 10 postseason meetings and three of five at Bridgestone.

Another win would send the Blackhawks to the conference semifinals for the fifth time in seven seasons under Quenneville, during which their .612 playoff winning percentage is the league's best.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Detroit has 2-1 series edge despite taking only 59 shots in three games (Tampa has 98); Lightning is 2-17 on power play in series, Red Wings 2-11. Lightning won eight of their last 12 games vs Detroit- eight of those 12 stayed under the total. Tampa Bay won four of its last six games overall, allowing 12 goals; they're 2-3 in last five visits to Motor City. Under is 5-2-1 in Lightning's last eight games. Red Wings lost three of last five home games.

Islanders/Washington split pair of 2-1 OT games on Long Island; Islanders are 5-8 in last thirteen games overall, with under 3-1-1 in last five vs Caps. Isles are 0-10 on power play in series-- only thirteen penalties total were called in last three games (Washington is 1-7). Caps won seven of their last 11 games; they outshot Islanders 31-20 in third period last three games. Home side won six of last eight series games. Islanders lost three of last four visits here.

Chicago scored after 2am in third OT Wednesday morning to take 3-1 series edge; Nashville lost nine of last ten games overall with pair of multiple-OT losses in this series. Predators lost six of last eight games with Chicago, with four of last five going over total- theyr'e 2-15 on power play in series, while Nashville is 3-15-- three of four games in this playoff series went over total. Blackhawks lost three of last four road games; four of last eight Nashville losses came in OT/SO.

Calgary is up 3-1 in this series, has won five of last six games with Vancouver- under is 4-1-2 in last seven series games- they scored five first period goals in Games 3-4, after not scoring in first two periods in Games 1-2. Flames have now won eight of last eleven games; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Calgary games. Vancouver is 2-12 on power play in series, Calgary is 4-11- they've only scored ten goals in whole series.

Home teams are 19-12 in this round; over is 14-13-4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's NBA Playoff Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Cavaliers at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST

LeBron James dropped the passive facilitator act and finished with a game-high 30 points in Game 2, imposing his will on the contest. He distributed seven assists like he did in the series opener, but was certainly more assertive in getting to the rim and took 22 shots. He hasn’t been perfect, shooting just 2-for-8 from 3-point range and committing 11 turnovers, but accomplished his mission of making sure new tag-team partners Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving got off on the right foot. VegasInsider expert Kevin Rogers points out that “while a member of the Heat, James’ squad took a 2-0 series lead in the first round of all four postseasons and in Game 3 on the road, Miami won and covered all four times, a good sign for backing the Cavaliers here.” Irving stole the show in Game 1 with a 30 points, including five 3-pointers, while adding 26 points on Tuesday. Love has shot poorly (8-for-22) but is averaging a team-high nine rebounds per contest. The Cavs opened -3500 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag. and are now -25000 up 2-0. Game 2 snapped a streak of three consecutive games that had gone over the posted total. Cleveland has won six of its last eight as a road favorite, going 5-3 ATS in that span.

The Celtics have held second-quarter leads in both games thus far, but the Cavs have won the third quarter by a combined margin of 53-40 and have therefore coasted into both fourth quarters with comfortable leads. Brad Stevens has put an emphasis on improving after the break, so don’t be surprised to see him mix things up in Game 3. Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Isaiah Thomas has come off the bench to score 22 points in both losses in Cleveland while also averaging 8.5 assists. He’s only playing 31 minutes per contest, so the adjustment may simply be to give him more run. Rookie Marcus Smart is averaging 10 points per game but is just 2-for-9 from 3-point range and has been dared by the Cavs to keep shooting. Avery Bradley is just 6-for-19, so Boston’s top defenders simply haven’t been able to find the range. Stevens sat Jonas Jerebko in Game 2 and gave more of Kelly Olynyk’s minutes to Jared Sullinger, who has started regaining his rhythm after missing 24 games post-All-Star break. Sullinger got 22 minutes and scored 14 points in Game 2, the most he’s managed since Feb. 11. The 6-11 Olynyk can still be useful in taking advantage of mismatches on the perimeter. Evan Turner has seen the majority of time on James and has averaged 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds, but is just 7-for-23 from the field. Rogers adds that “the Celtics put together a solid winning stretch at TD Garden from February through mid-March, but have dropped four of their past seven home contests. One of those wins came against a Cavaliers’ squad that sat James, Irving, and Love towards the end of the regular season in a 117-78 blowout, but Boston has compiled a 4-1 ATS record in its past five as a home underdog.” Boston was +1500 to pull the upset in this series per Sportsbook.ag. and is now +5000. Unders have prevailed in four of the Celtics last six games, including Game 2.

Bulls at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST

Right off the bat, we’ll get to see how engaged the Bucks crowd will be in their first home playoff game since 2013, only the sixth time they’ve hosted since ‘06. Complicating matters is the opponent, since Bulls fans are very likely to make their voices heard less than 100 miles from home. This is the first time the long-time rivals have met in the postseason in 25 years, but that’s not expected to alter the custom of Chicago fans finding tickets and being just as loud as the Milwaukee backers. Bulls Nation is riled up, too. Point guard Derrick Rose and former Marquette standout Jimmy Butler have thrilled Chicago with how healthy and explosive they’ve looked since returning from significant injuries. Rose has averaged 19 points and eight assists, getting to the rim and showing off an improved 3-point stroke, currently 5-for-13 from beyond the arc in the series. Butler is averaging 28 points through the first two games, shooting 18-for-33 (55 percent). His 31 points in Game 2 was the All-Star’s best scoring night since Jan. 29, helping the Bulls prevail despite the rest of the team shooting a combined 21-for-62 (33.8 pct) in a 91-82 win. Rookie forward Nikola Mirotic, typically able to give Chicago a boost with his perimeter touch and ability to create matchup problems, will miss Thursday’s game with a left knee strain suffered on Monday night. Kirk Hinrich (knee) has yet to play in the series but went through practice yesterday and will likely see his first postseason action. Joakim Noah has played through a hamstring issue and is averaging 15 rebounds per contest despite managing just 6.0 points per game. Pau Gasol is just 9-for-29 this postseason, but is averaging 10.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.5 blocks. The Bulls opened -750 to hold serve in this series according to Sportsbook.ag. and are now -7000. Chicago has won six consecutive games and has covered five of those. The under is 6-3-1 in the team’s last 10 games.

The Bucks are shooting just 37.4 percent thus far this postseason, including 8-for-33 from 3-point range (24.2 pct). They’ve been outrebounded 116-89 and are really being exposed by Tom Thibodeau’s elite defense. Jason Kidd is the only coach in NBA history to take two different teams to the postseason in his first two years as a head coach, but this group is much younger than last year’s veteran Nets squad and is viewing this more as a learning atmosphere than a pressure situation. Point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who came over at the All-Star break, has averaged just 2.5 assists in the series and has shot 9-for-25 (36 pct) from the field, taking just one 3-pointer. The Bulls have been cutting off his driving angles and daring him to take open perimeter looks. Shooting guard Khris Middleton has led the Bucks in scoring, averaging 20 points per game in the series despite shooting 40.5 percent, roughly the same clip he shot against them in four regular-season meetings (21-for-51). Talented young small forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting just 25 percent against Chicago (6-for-24), averaging 9.0 points and 8.0 rebounds. Milwaukee was 23-18 at home this season, but is just 4-6 at Bradley Center since March 18, going 4-5-1 ATS. The Bucks are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games as a home underdog. They opened at +500 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag., but are now +2000 after falling into an 0-2 hole. Five of their last seven games have gone over the posted total.

Warriors at Pelicans – 9:35 PM EST

All five starters scored in double-figures in the series opener, but the scoring wasn’t quite as balanced in Game 2. Klay Thompson took his turn playing primary catalyst, connecting on 11 of 17 shot attempts to finish with a team-high 26 points. He averaged 19.7 points over three regular-season games, but shot just 41 percent against the Pelicans, so seeing him rebound from a 6-for-17 performance in Game 1 was reassuring. MVP front-runner Stephen Curry has been great, opening the playoff run with 34 points and adding 22 on Monday. For the season, his scoring output of 23.5 points in four regular-season meetings with New Orleans is right there near his average over 80 games (23.8), but he stepped his game up further at Smoothie King Center, averaging 29.5 and eight assists while shooting 11-for-18 from 3-point range. Despite the “Splash Brothers” getting off nicely, the key to persevering through a sneakily complicated series lies in the continued success of Draymond Green. The undersized power forward has been incredibly impressive defending Anthony Davis, who is a few inches bigger and longer, not to mention more talented. Green’s defense was the key in holding him to 9-for-22 shooting in Game 2 after his 35-point explosion on Saturday, keeping him from making a shot in five fourth-quarter attempts. Davis was 3-for-12 when Green guarded him. Andrew Bogut, the key to the Warriors winning a championship since they can’t replace his rim protection or how well he facilitates on offense from the five-spot, averaged 7.3 points,8.0 rebounds and 4.7 blocks against the Pelicans, during the regular season, has grabbed 28 boards and blocked five shots in the two wins in Oakland. VI’s Rogers researched that the “Warriors are favored on the road in the playoffs for the first time in 17 games, which stretches back to their first round upset of the Mavericks back in 2007. In the last three postseasons, Golden State has lost seven of 10 away from Oracle Arena, surrendering at least 100 points in five straight road playoff contests.” GSW opened at -5000 to win this series at Sportsbook.ag., by far the largest favorite of the first-round. Up 2-0, the Warriors are now -16500. The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight, but had covered in nine of 10 prior to this stretch. They’re 2-4 ATS against the Pelicans despite winning five of the six encounters.

When the Pelicans held off the Warriors 103-100 on April 7, Davis told reporters they considered themselves “an elite team” that “can play with anybody and beat anybody on any given night.” New Orleans put a couple of scares into Golden State at Oracle and is out to prove it can make this a series. Davis, despite his struggles with Green, is averaging 30.5 points, 9.0 boards and 3.0 blocks, so any chance the Pelicans have starts and ends with him. Unfortunately, Davis doesn’t have the help he envisioned since point guard Jrue Holiday (leg), missed Game 2 and is still dealing with soreness that has him questionable for Thursday. Tyreke Evans (knee) played 41 minutes after being limited to just 12 in Game 1. He came up with 16 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists on Monday but was visibly hampered and is just 4-for-15 in the series Ryan Anderson returned after missing most of March and still hasn’t been able to find the range. He shot 32 percent over nine April contests and is 2-for-11 in the series, making just one 3-pointer. Eric Gordon has continued to shoot the ball well and is 9-for-17 from beyond the arc in the series, lifting him to 33-for-67 (49 pct) from beyond the arc in April. Rogers likes that New Orleans can regroup at home, seeing this as “a favorable spot as a home underdog in Game 3. New Orleans owns a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record since the All-Star break when getting points at home, which includes victories over Toronto, Golden State, and San Antonio.” The Pelicans are also 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five home outings, winning three as a favorite and two as a dog. The Pelis opened at +1800 at Sportsbook.ag. and are at +4000. The under has gone 6-2-2 in New Orleans’ last 10 contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Warriors' success on the court, not helping bettors
Justin Hartling

The Golden State Warriors have won six consecutive games, including both of their playoff games so far, but are just 1-5 against the spread during that time. The Warriors have won each of those games by an average of eight points, but have been facing an average spread of -12.5.

Each of those six games were at Oracle Arena, but with the playoff series flipping to New Orleans ATS issues may become even more prevalent. Golden State was just 21-20 ATS on the road this year, as they were commonly road faves.

The Warriors are currently -5 for Game 3 against the Pelicans Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Thursday, April 23 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

The three series that resume action in the underdog's city for Game 3 haven't been all that dramatic yet as the home team never was much in doubt of losing either of the first two games. I think it's fair to say that if the home dogs don't win Game 3 on Thursday night then we probably are looking sweeps -- especially the Celtics and Pelicans need to win Game 3 against the two best teams in the NBA. I do think the Bucks will get one game from Chicago, which just can't seem to keep everyone healthy and is dealing with yet another injury.

Game 3: Cavaliers at Celtics (+4, 204)

Boston has played a bit better than I expected in the first two games. Normally if you hold the prolific Cavs under 100 as the C's did on Tuesday then you have a good chance of winning because Cleveland isn't great on defense. However, the Cavs won 99-91. Boston just doesn't have anyone to deal with LeBron James (30 points) or Kyrie Irving (26). James passed Jerry West as the seventh-leading scorer in NBA playoff history. LeBron has a ways to go to catch No. 1 Michael Jordan, but it seems like he will eventually. James and Irving combined for Cleveland's final 28 points.

The Celtics starters combined for just 40 points, with Tyler Zeller leading the way with 11. That's obviously not going to cut it. Boston shot only 38.8 percent and was outrebounded by eight. Thanks to Isaiah Thomas' 22 points, the Boston bench outscored Cleveland's 51-7. But if your starters are getting demolished, that's little consolation. Boston has been dominated in the third quarter of both games; on Tuesday it was a 17-4 run that put the C's into a 14-point hole. Maybe the Celtics should just keep Kelly Olynyk on the floor. They outscored Cleveland by 13 points during his 21 minutes in Game 2.

Updated series line: Cavaliers -25000, Celtics +5000.

Key trends: The Cavs are 0-6 against the spread in their past six playing on one day of rest. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their past six at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The "over/under" has gone over in 10 of Cleveland's past 11 road games vs. teams with a winning home record.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.

Game 3: Bulls at Bucks (+3, 186.5)

Chicago improved to 5-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 91-82 win on Monday that was a bit tougher than the 103-91 Game 1 win. The Bulls had just 11 points after one quarter Monday and were only up three entering the fourth. Jimmy Butler followed his career playoff high of 25 points in Game 1 with 31 points (14 in the fourth quarter) in 46 minutes in Game 2. Coach Tom Thibodeau just never learns -- he keeps riding his guys so many minutes. Butler also had nine rebounds and nary a turnover. Derrick Rose was very quiet in the first half (0-for-7 from field) but finished with 15 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in 38 minutes, his most played by far since returning from his knee surgery. The news wasn't all good as rookie sensation Nikola Mirotic suffered a strained left quad and bruised knee and probably won't play in Game 3 or maybe not Game 4, either. He was injured during a skirmish with Milwaukee's Zaza Pachulia. There were a few scrums in the game. Mirotic has been pretty quiet in this series with just 13 combined points. Taj Gibson should see more minutes, but he's battling a shoulder problem. The Bulls might get back backup guard Kirk Hinrich here. He hasn't played yet in this series due to a knee problem.

The Bucks give the Bulls problems defensively but they just have no major offensive threats to scare anyone. Milwaukee shot only 35.6 percent overall and 4-for-17 from long range in Game 2. Khris Middleton led the team with 22 points, and only one other player had double digits: Michael Carter-Williams with 12. Giannis Antetokounmpo was just 2-for-11 from the field and Ersan Ilyasova 3-for-10. The Bucks scored 103 points per 100 possessions during the regular season but in these two playoff games have scored just 91 points per 100 possessions. They had a scant 13 assists in Game 2, two fewer than any regular-season game.

Updated series line: Bulls -7000, Bucks +2000.

Key trends: The Bucks are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 Thursday games. The over is 8-3 in the Bulls' past 11 road games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-1 in the past six.

Early lean: Bucks and under.

Game 3: Warriors at Pelicans (+5, 203)

Golden State took Game 2 on Monday 97-87, rallying from 13 points down in the first quarter. Klay Thompson had 26 points and Steph Curry 22. Thompson broke a 71-71 tie on the Warriors' first possession of the fourth quarter, grabbing an offensive rebound before throwing down a one-handed dunk. The Warriors never trailed again. Draymond Green showed why he's a top candidate for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. The Warriors led 88-84 when Green re-entered the game with 5:17 left in the fourth quarter, and the Pelicans scored only three points the rest of the way. The Warriors didn't play great, shooting just 9-for-30 from long range and 44.2 percent overall. Still, it was the team's 20th straight home win, and the Warriors are 42-0 this season when holding teams under 100 points.

Pelicans star Anthony Davis had 26 points and 10 rebounds, but he was 9-for-21 from the floor and clearly was fatigued in the fourth quarter as he played 45 minutes. The Warriors keep throwing Green and Andrew Bogut at him. The Pelicans shot only 37.8 percent. Guard Tyreke Evans was questionable for the game but did play and had 16 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Point guard Jrue Holiday also was questionable for Game 2, and he didn't play. I believe he will in Game 3, but he can't go more than 20 minutes or so. New Orleans was 28-13 at home this season and beat every other Western Conference playoff team in the Smoothie King Center except Portland, which only visited once.

Updated series line: Warriors -16500, Pelicans +4000.

Key trends: The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their past five games. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its past five at home. The under is 4-1 in the past five in New Orleans.

Early lean: Warriors and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Lebron James is 39-7 in first round games in his career; Cleveland won eight of last ten games overall, covering two of its last eight; they were 20-59 on arc, 50-59 on line in first two wins, as Irving was on court for 80 minutes, James 84. Boston covered nine of its last eleven games overall; they had only 13 fast break points in first two games, were -20 on the boards. Smart/Turner are 15-38 combined from floor in first two series games.

Chicago made 24-65 from arc in first two series wins- they held the Bucks to 39%/36% from floor. Bulls won eight of last nine games with Milwaukee (7-1 vs spread in last eight)-- seven of last ten games stayed under total. Chicago won last five games. Bucks are 8-33 from arc in two games; they've only turned ball over 12 times in two games, but also have only 21 fast break points in the two games. Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.

New Orleans lost 10 of last 12 games with Golden State, losing by 7-10 in first two games- they were down only 55-52 at half in last game, after being down 18 in Game 1. Golden State won ten of last twelve games, but covered only one of last eight- they got to line 34 times in Game 1, but only 19 last game. Davis had 61 points for New Orleans in first two games, but other starters went 27-74 from floor, even with Evans back in lineup (41:00) in Game 2.

Home favorites are 8-8 in this round; home teams are 13-3 SU, with two of three road wins in OT-- over is 5-11.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Royals (11-4) at White Sox (6-8)

Game: 1
Venue: U.S. Cellular Field
Date: April 23, 2015 8:10 PM EDT

If the Chicago White Sox are to become serious contenders in the AL Central, they likely must find a way to end their struggles against the Kansas City Royals.

Looking to avenge a season-opening sweep at the hands of the reigning AL champs, Chris Sale and the White Sox open a four-game home set against the Royals on Thursday night.

Eager to begin after a busy offseason of personnel changes, Chicago (6-8) was outscored 21-7 while opening with three losses at Kansas City. The White Sox have averaged 2.6 runs while losing 14 of 17 to the Royals, and 2.1 in dropping 15 of the last 18 meetings at home.

Kansas City (11-4) returns to Chicago, where it clinched the franchise's first playoff berth in 29 years with a 3-1 victory over the White Sox on Sept. 26.

"(The Royals) play the game hard," Chicago center fielder Adam Eaton told MLB's official website.

After taking of two three from Cleveland, the White Sox have some momentum while trying to avoid a fifth consecutive defeat to the Royals.

"You're doing something right," Eaton said after Wednesday's 6-0 victory. "Hopefully that can continue."

A fractured right foot prevented Sale (2-0, 2.25 ERA) from opening at Kansas City, but he'll try to win his first three starts for a second straight season. The left-hander, who has struck out 14 and walked two over 12 innings, yielded two runs in six innings of a 12-3 win at Detroit on Saturday.

"I feel great," he said.

Though Sale is 6-6 in 13 starts against the Royals, he's posted a 2.61 ERA and received an average 2.31 runs of support. He improved to 4-3 at home versus Kansas City and dropped his ERA to 2.25 ERA after allowing a run in seven innings of a 3-1 victory July 21 in his only 2014 series start at U.S. Cellular Field.

The Royals, meanwhile, look to bounce back after falling 3-0 to Minnesota on Wednesday. Alcides Escobar had two of the six hits for Kansas City, which ranks among the major league leaders with 81 runs but was blanked for the second time in five games.

Escobar is hitting .444 with 11 runs scored in his last nine games versus Chicago, and .400 (18 for 45) against Sale.

Kansas City's Yordano Ventura (2-1, 4.80) pitched six-plus innings and allowed Jose Abreu's homer in the seventh and three other hits before leaving with a finger cramp in the season-opening 10-1 victory over Chicago.

Ventura exited his next start because of cramping in his calf and was ejected in the fourth inning of Saturday's 5-0 loss to Oakland for hitting Brett Lawrie just above the left elbow - likely in retaliation for an incident between the teams the previous night. The right-hander, who allowed five runs in 3 1-3 innings, was fined by MLB but not suspended.

"He's got some learning to do," manager Ned Yost said about Ventura, who turns 24 in June. "But you got to understand, he's a young guy. And I wouldn't say he's emotional, but he's got a real edge to him."

Abreu's home run is his only hit in five at_bats versus Ventura, but he's homered in back-to-back games and is 9 for 21 with 10 RBIs in the last five contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tigers closer Nathan reinjures arm
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Joe Nathan, who believed he was almost ready to resume his role as the Detroit Tigers' closer, experienced a setback during a minor league rehab appearance Wednesday.

Pitching for Triple-A Toledo while working his way back from a right elbow flexor strain, Nathan lasted just 10 of a scheduled 25 pitches before feeling a popping sensation in his arm.

"It feels like I broke my arm," Nathan told MLive.com. "I never have broken my arm, but I would assume this is what it feels like."

After Toledo's pitching coach and trainer came to the mound to check on Nathan, the right-hander attempted a warmup pitch but still didn't feel right. He then left the game against Louisville in Toledo, Ohio.

"I tried to play catch with the first one and if that one felt good, go from there," he told MLive.com. "But I still felt it. Definitely pain, obviously. I'm sure you could see that."

He plans to undergo tests, including an MRI exam.

Nathan, 40, got a one-batter save on Opening Day, striking out Minnesota Twins outfielder Torii Hunter, but he went on the disabled list two days later. Until Wednesday's setback, he was pleased with how quickly he was recovering and was hoping to be activated from the DL as soon as Friday.

"Until we go find out what's going on, I don't want to speculate on what it is," Nathan told MLive.com. "But, obviously, it was enough for me to take myself out of a game. And any time somebody walks off the mound is never a good thing."

News of Nathan's reinjury reached the Tigers in Detroit.

"I thought he was really close," Detroit manager Brad Ausmus said. "I think he thought he was really close until that one pitch. ...

"It hurts. We're a better bullpen with Joe in it, no question. So if (his absence is) extended, it hurts, but until we know what it is, I really don't want to speculate how long or what the impact is going to be."

Nathan finished with 35 saves last year but blew a career-high seven save chances while posting a 4.81 ERA and a 5-4 record. A six-time All-Star, Nathan has 377 career saves, including a high of 47 with the Twins in 2009.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wacha looks to continue hot start to season for Cards
Justin Hartling

Michael Wacha has been quietly pitching very well for the St. Louis Cardinals and he will take the mound Thursday. Through two starts on the season Wacha has posted a 2-0 record with a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

Wacha started once against the Washington Nationals last season and only allowed one run over seven innings pitched.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rays' Smyly expected back in the rotation Friday
Justin Hartling

The Tampa Bay Rays are expected to welcome Drew Smyly back to their starting rotation in time for their weekend series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

In Smyly's three rehab starts he tossed 8.2 innings with a 9/3 K/BB ratio and holding opponents to a .071 batting average.

After being acquired in the trade that sent David Price to the Tigers, Smyly posted a 1.70 ERA with the Rays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Amazing Mets'

New York Mets and Atlanta Braves go at it in an early one as they conclude a three-game set. New York will send out Bartolo Colon carrying a 3-0 Team Start Record along with a 1-0 TSR facing Braves this campaign. Atlanta will hand the ball to Julio Teheran also sporting a 3-0 TSR and 1-0 record vs Mets this year. Baseball handicapping demands digging a little deeper to get a better take on performance. Those whose focus is baseball betting have certainly done so, and have come up with the fact that Colon heads to the hill in great form sporting an impressive 20.67 Batter-Out-Rating per nine innings along with a sharp 0.80 WHIP while Teheran enters with a 13.33 BOR/9 and 1.41 WHIP. Those digging a little deeper will also find Colon has a sparkling 6-0 TSR as a home favorite in April, 5-3 TSR at home following a team victory the previous effort. This being a day game should also get the attention of sports handicappers as Colon has had solid results in the daylight posting a 9-3 TSR while Atlanta has struggled during road day games with Teheran going 1-4 in his last five situations. Mets loving home cookin' winning 11 in a row at Citi Field dating back to last season, 5-1 the past six when going for a 3-game series sweep the numbers point to New York.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, April 23, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I'm not ready to say the young Chicago Cubs can win the NL Central this season as I'd still give the edge to St. Louis. However, these Cubs won't quit. They won a wild game on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh with a ninth-inning rally to improve to 2-5 this season when trailing entering the ninth. That might not sound like much, but last year the Cubs were 0-79 in that scenario. A lot of matinee getaway games on Thursday afternoon, so keep in mind that some key players could get the day off or only be used as a pinch-hitter.

Yankees at Tigers (-121, 8)

It's a 1:08 start on the MLB network for this series finale, and it should be a nice pitching duel. The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka looked a bit off in his first two starts of the season, both coming at Yankee Stadium. However, in his first road start Saturday at Tampa Bay, he looked back to his pre-injury rookie form by holding the Rays to no runs and two hits over seven innings, striking out eight and walking no one. This is the first time Tanaka has faced the Tigers, so I'm fascinated to see him go against Miguel Cabrera. Detroit's Yoenis Cespedes faced Tanaka last season and was 3-for-5 with two RBIs. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez. He has been bombed in his last two starts after a great first one. Sanchez has allowed five combined homers in those past two and only four dingers all of last year. So maybe this won't be a pitching duel. Brian McCann has nine hits career off Sanchez in 32 at-bats with two doubles, a homer and eight RBIs.

Key trends: New York is 8-3 in Tanaka's past 11 on the road. The "over/under" has gone over in his past four away starts. The over has hit in five of Sanchez's past seven at home.

Early lean: Yankees and under.


Braves at Mets (-134, 7)

If New York wins Wednesday's game vs. Atlanta, and judging by the pitching matchup that's likely, then the Mets will be going for their 11th straight victory here. That's the team record, set in 1990. It will be tough Thursday as it's Braves ace Julio Teheran (2-0, 3.71). He beat the Mets on April 11 at Turner Field, allowing one earned run and two hits over six innings. He wasn't sharp last time out, allowing five runs and a career-high four homers in five innings of a no-decision in Toronto. Lucas Duda hits him well, going 7-for-20 with two doubles, two homers and three RBIs. Daniel Murphy is 5-for-15 with two doubles and two RBIs off him. Bartolo Colon (3-0, 2.25) starts for New York. He won in Atlanta on April 12, allowing three runs and six hits in seven innings in his worst start of the year thus far. Freddie Freeman is a career .462 hitter off him in 13 at-bats. Jonny Gomes is 8-for-21 with three solo homers off him.

Key trends: The Braves are 1-4 in Teheran's past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 6-1 in Colon's past seven in Game 3 of a series. The under is 6-2 in Teheran's past six vs. the Mets.

Early lean: Teheran ends the streak if it's still going. Also lean under.


Cardinals at Nationals (-151, 6.5)

Washington's lineup is nearly complete as Denard Span returned on Sunday from the DL and third baseman Anthony Rendon will begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Friday and could be back early next week. Max Scherzer (1-1, 0.83) has been all the Nats could have asked for thus far. He has yet to allow more than one earned run in his three starts, with his only loss coming when he gave up three unearned. Batters are hitting only .171 off him. He's from St. Louis, so this might have extra meaning. Very few Cards have faced him. Matt Holliday is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Michael Wacha (2-0, 1.35) has been about as good as Scherzer. The two total runs he has allowed thus far have come on solo homers, both against the Reds. Washington's Ian Desmond is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts against Wacha. Span is 0-for-4.

Key trends: The Cards are 5-1 in Wacha's past six pitching on five days of rest. The Nats are 6-2 in their past eight Game 3s. The over is 6-2 in Wacha's past eight on five days of rest.

Early lean: Nats and under.


Red Sox at Rays (+107, 7.5)

Tampa Bay took a four-game losing streak into Wednesday and is in the basement of the AL East, but the good news is that lefty pitcher Drew Smyly looks likely to get his first start of the season on Friday off the DL. For this series finale it's Jake Odorizzi (2-1, 1.74). All three of his starts have been quality and all three have come against AL East clubs. He has yet to allow a home run in 20.2 innings, and his 0.68 WHIP is second in the AL. Odorizzi is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in five career starts against Boston. David Ortiz, who is appealing his one-game suspension, is 1-for-10 career off him. Clay Buchholz (1-2, 6.06) has sandwiched two quality starts around one horrible one. He was 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts last year vs. the Rays. Evan Longoria is a career .200 hitter off him in 40 at-bats with 14 strikeouts. Asdrubal Cabrera is 4-for-9 with two solo homers.

Key trends: The Sox are 3-9 in Buchholz's past 12 vs. teams with a losing record. The Rays are 1-6 in Odorizzi's past seven following a quality start in his last appearance. The Sox are 3-7 in Buchholz's past 10 against Tampa Bay.

Early lean: Rays and over.


Royals at White Sox (-147, 7)

This is a series opener as the White Sox look for payback after getting swept three games to open the season in Kansas City, and the Pale Hose haven't sniffed .500 since. Should be an excellent pitching matchup here. It's Yordano Ventura (2-1, 4.80) for Kansas City. He pitched opening day and beat the Sox by holding them to a run and four hits over six innings. Ventura was part of all the fun against Oakland last weekend as he plunked Brett Lowrie on Saturday after a Josh Reddick homer, and Ventura was ejected. Adam Eaton, who is struggling at the plate this season, is 4-for-12 with two doubles off Ventura. Jose Abreu has a solo homer in five at-bats. Chris Sale (2-0, 2.25) missed that first series with the Royals but has been typically great in his first two starts. Lorenzo Cain hits him, going 13-for-37 with three doubles, two homers and six RBIs. Alcides Escobar hits .400 off Sale.

Key trends: The Royals are 7-0 in Ventura's past seven on the road. The Sox are 7-3 in Sale's past 10 series openers. The over is 5-0 in Ventura's past five against Chicago. The under is 5-2 in Sale's past seven at home in this series.

Early lean: Sox at +160 on the Runline and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing
118-75 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.1% | 47.3 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | ATLANTA at NY METS
ATLANTA is 19-6 (+15.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: ATLANTA (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.0)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

Six batters who have come to plate with most men on base this season:

T5) Kevin Pillar, Tor-- 48-- Knocked in only five of the 48 runners.

T5) JD Martinez, Det-- 48-- Helps to bat behind Miggy and Victor.

4) Ian Kinsler, Det-- 49-- Knocked in 16.3% of runners, best of six on this list.

3) Eric Hosmer, KC-- 51-- Knocked in four of 18 guys from second base.

2) Kendrys Morales, KC-- 52-- Knocked in four of eight guys from third base.

1) Marcus Semien, Oak-- 54-- Weird; he bats at bottom of Oakland lineup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play THURS: Orioles w/ Tillman +110

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo needs a Buc

Hondo’s losing streak grew to five Wednesday when the Tribe went belly up, but it ended right there because the Reds took down the Brewers to cut the debt to 240 clendenons.

Thursday: Mr. Aitch will go with his Locke of the Day — 10 units on the Pirates to patch together a victory against the Cubs.