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March Madness is NOW! Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
By JASON LOGAN

For those that think March Madness doesn’t begin until the selection committee has their say on that tense Sunday in mid-March, we say “WRONG”.

The official and oft-forgotten kickoff to the NCAA postseason begins this week when 13 mid-major conferences open their respective conference tournaments. Starting Tuesday, these leagues will fill out the first outright selections of the national tournament and, along the way, likely burst the bubble of a few major conference programs on the NCAA fringe.

Chances are you haven’t paid attention to these little leagues during the course of the season, since many of their games go without odds. Hell, you may not know some of them even existed. So we’re giving you a head start when it comes to capping these conference tournaments, pointing out the favorites, value underdog bets and live long shots to win.

America East (March 4, 8, 14)

Favorite: Albany Great Danes (21-8, 15-1) – With the America East a campus-sites tournament – no host school – Albany has home court to the finals. The Great Danes give up just 59 points per game at home – ninth lowest in the country.

Underdog: Stony Brook Seawolves (21-10, 12-4) – The lone conference blemish on Albany’s resume comes courtesy of the Seawolves, who ride a six-game winning streak into the postseason. Momentum is worth its weight in gold come March.

Long Shot: New Hampshire Wildcats (18-11, 11-5) – The Wildcats lost twice to Albany by a combined three points and have a win over Stony Brook. New Hampshire can knock down the 3-pointer and defend against it – two very key stats for playoff basketball.

Atlantic Sun (March 3-8)

Favorite: North Florida Ospreys -130 (20-11, 12-2) – North Florida gets home-court throughout this tournament, and can pile on the points in a hurry – averaging 83 points per home game (fifth in the country). It won both meetings with Florida Gulf Coast, who many pick to win this tournament.

Underdog: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +270 (21-9, 11-3) – The Eagles stumbled at the end of the year with two straight losses. Florida Gulf Coast is known more for its defense (39.1 FG% def) then the high-flying offense it wowed the nation with two years ago.

Long shot: South Carolina Upstate Spartans +370 (21-10, 8-6) – North Florida’s two conference losses came to the Spartans, who also played FGCU tough. South Carolina Upstate has a plus-5.4 scoring margin and the conference’s top scorer Ty Greene, who dropped 39 on North Florida and 31 on FGCU.

Big South (March 3-8)

Favorite: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (19-10, 13-5) – The Buccaneers locked up the No. 1 seed with a thrilling triple-overtime win against High Point Saturday. Charleston Southern can fill it up at home (averaging 80 points) and lives by the 3-pointer, and dies by the 3-pointer (27.4 3-pt attempts – second most).

Underdog: Radford Highlanders (21-10, 12-6) – Radford grabbed the No. 4 seed with a win in its season finale. The Highlanders have two wins over High Point and a road win at Charleston and boast a deep rotation with seven players averaging 5.9 points or more.

Long shot: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (18-13, 10-8) – The Bulldogs managed to win 18 games despite being ranked among the worst defensive programs in the country (74.2 points against). Gardner-Webb has been able to overwhelm the top teams in the conference with its explosive offense (75.1 points per game).

Colonial Athletic Association (March 6-9)

Favorite: James Madison Dukes +1,000 (19-12, 12-6) – Even though the Dukes are ranked No. 4 in the conference tournament, they take six wins in their last seven games (5-2 ATS) into the postseason. That momentum separates them from a deadlocked pack at the top of the conference. William & Mary are +200 faves to win the Colonial at the Superbook in Las Vegas but dropped three of its last five games of the season. The CAA is much more wide open than the odds would indicate.

Underdog: NC Wilmington Seahawks +600 (17-12, 12-6) – The Seahawks crapped the bed in the season finale, losing to Elon but has knocked off Northeastern and James Madison in recent weeks and sits No. 2 in the tournament seeding, and will play a banged-up Drexel team (missing CAA leading scorer Damion Lee) or a 8-23 College of Charleston squad.

Long shot: Elon Phoenix +1,200 (14-17, 6-12) – Elon came on late in the season with three straight wins to finish up, beating Northeastern and UNCW in that span. The Phoenix also beat No. 1-seed William & Mary earlier this year, who they will likely face in Round 2 of the CAA tournament.

Horizon League (March 3-10)

Favorite: Valparaiso Crusaders EVEN (26-5, 13-3) – Since Valpo won the league, it gets to host the tournament - a sweet deal for a team that went 13-1 at home. The Crusaders don’t budge much on defense and don’t give away second looks at the basket either, allowing just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Underdog: Green Bay Phoenix +150 (23-7, 12-4) – Seeded No. 2, Green Bay avoided a potential meeting with Cleveland State in the semifinals (lost both games to the Vikings). The Phoenix won the regular season title last year but were upset in the opener. They’ll be cautious of a letdown this time around.

Long shot: Detroit Titans +350 (14-17, 7-9) – Detroit is sitting No. 5 in the tournament and no one ahead of them wants them to advance. The Titans have victories over Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Oakland and was competitive in February with a 5-2 ATS record. Detroit is a dangerous 3-point threat at 39.1 percent in league games.

Metro Atlantic Athletic (March 5-9)

Favorite: Iona Gaels +120 (24-7, 17-3) – The Gaels can light up the scoreboard with an offense that posts 79.6 points per game – seventh in the country. Iona did, however, lay an egg in the season finale to St. Peter’s, marking the fourth straight game the Gaels have failed to cover.

Underdog: Rider Broncs +500 (21-10, 15-5) – Rider was one of the best bets during the regular season, going 17-9 ATS in its 16 lined games. The Broncs had a strong true road record at 11-4 and played some heavyweights in Kansas and Michigan State early in the year.

Long shot: Niagara Purple Eagles +300 (8-21, 7-13) – The Purple Eagles picked up half their wins in the final four games of the season, including a win over Rider, holding opponents to about 40 percent shooting. Niagara also played Iona to a one-point game, losing 80-79 at home. Momentum breeds upsets.

Missouri Valley Conference (March 5-8)

Favorite: Wichita State Shockers -300 (27-3, 17-1) – Wichita State is going dancing regardless of their tournament turnout. Wichita State proved it was top dog in the MVC with a convincing win over Northern Iowa and has covered in five straight heading into the postseason.

Underdog: Northern Iowa Panthers +250 (27-3, 16-2) – While UNI’s record is very close to WSU, Saturday’s 14-point defeat to the Shockers showed how much space is really between these programs. The Panthers give up just 54.6 points per game – fourth lowest in the country – and seemingly have an easier side of the bracket.

Long shot: Illinois State Redbirds +800 (15-15, 11-7) – With ranked rivals above them in the standings, Illinois State is giving great value in the MVC tournament. The Redbirds bring a four-game winning streak into the postseason and covered in both losses to Wichita State.

Northeast Conference (March 5,8,11)

Favorite: St. Francis (NY) Terriers (21-10, 15-3) – The Terriers limp into the postseason off a loss and a slim overtime victory in their final two games of the schedule. St. Francis has home court throughout the tournament, losing just one conference game in front of its fans.

Underdog: Robert Morris Colonials (16-14, 12-6) – Robert Morris takes a three-game roll into the tournament and was the lone Northeast team to come out of Peter Aquilone Court in Brooklyn with a victory. Rodney Pryor is playing the best basketball in the conference averaging 25.5 points in the last four games.

Long shot: Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-16, 9-9) – Sacred Heart closed the campaign with back-to-back wins and went 6-2 in its last eight games of the schedule. The Pioneers love to push the tempo, averaging 73.4 points on 72.3 possessions per game – running the 20th fastest tempo in college hoops.

Ohio Valley Conference (March 4-7)

Favorite: Murray State Racers -125 (26-4, 16-0) – The Racers were perfect in conference play but all that could be for nothing if Murray State can’t get the job done in the postseason. The Racers can put up the points - 78.8 per game – but do have flaws on defense and at the charity stripe.

Underdog: Belmont Bruins +260 (19-10, 11-5) – The Bruins earned the No. 3 seed in the tournament thanks to a late-season push that won four straight, including a victory over Eastern Kentucky. Belmont can also fill the stats sheet but hasn’t been its best away from home.

Long shot: Morehead State Eagles +260 (15-16, 10-6) – Morehead State also brings momentum into the postseason with three wins in a row. Those victories did come against the bottom half of the OVC East, but the Eagles have a swarming defense that turns mistakes into easy offense – forcing a league-high 14.9 turnovers per game.

Patriot League (March 3,5,8,11)

Favorite: Colgate Raiders +270 (15-16, 12-6) – Colgate finished as the No. 2 seed but has five wins in its last seven games, and those two losses have come by a combined three points. The Raiders also won both meetings with No. 1 Bucknell (+165) this season. This team can bring the rain from downtown, averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game on 40.2 percent shooting – ninth best in the country.

Underdog: Lehigh Mountain Hawks +425 (16-13, 10-8) – Lehigh takes on American U in Round 2, a team it beat in its last meeting, then would likely face Colgate in the semifinal. The Mountain Hawks have given the Raiders a tough go in their two clashes, and have a convincing win over No. 1 Bucknell. It could happen for the No. 3 seed.

Long shot: Lafayette Leopards +500 (17-12, 9-9) – The Leopards are dead eyes from downtown, shooting 40.3 percent from distance and knocking down almost eight 3-pointers per game. Lafayette ranks 26th in scoring at 75 points per game and took down Bucknell, Colgate and Lehigh this season.

Southern Conference (March 6-9)

Favorite: Wofford Terriers -125 (25-6, 16-2) – Wofford runs a very methodical offense, sucking almost every second off the shot clock. That’s helped the Terriers limit opponents to just 59.9 points per game. They bring a five-game winning streak into the postseason, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Underdog: Chattanooga Mocs +300 (22-9, 15-3) – The Mocs run at a much quicker tempo than their Southern rivals, scoring 72.8 points per game. They won their last meeting at home versus Wofford and boast four players averaging double figures.

Long shot: Samford Bulldogs +1,500 (13-18, 6-12) – Samford has a tough slate of schedule to finish the season, playing five of its final seven games on the road. The Bulldogs went 3-4 in that span with a 5-2 ATS mark. Samford has a freshman star in Christen Cunningham, who is playing his best ball of the season.

Summit League (March 7-10)

Favorite: South Dakota State -110 /North Dakota State +500 (21-9, 12-4/20-9, 12-4) – Nearly identical records from these rivals. Since they’re seeding No. 1 and No. 2, there’s a very good chance we see them in the final. Both closed the regular season with a loss. They split the season series but No. 1 SDSU has the softer side of the bracket this March.

Underdog: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +500 (17-13, 10-6) – Oral Roberts took a win over NDSU last week and closed with a victory over Denver. The Golden Eagles are without standout guard Korey Billbury, who was suspended at the end of the year. And while they’ve done OK without him in those two games, they will miss him in the backcourt when the postseason pressure builds.

Long shot: IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons +500 (16-13, 9-7) – The Mastodons have resume wins over North and South Dakota State and come into the postseason on an 8-2 run, going 9-1 ATs in that stretch. IPFW can win with offense or lock teams down on defense.

West Coast Conference (March 5-10)

Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -300 (29-2, 17-1) – The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to BYU in the season finale, which probably cost them a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga gets it done on both ends of the floor and that loss to the Cougars is likely a wake-up call for Mark Few’s squad.

Underdog: BYU Cougars +300 (23-8, 13-5) – The Cougars may have just punched their ticket to the Big Dance with that win over Gonzaga, and run the risk of a letdown in their opener. Brigham Young is the top scoring team in the country but doesn’t play much in the way of defense.

Long shot: Pepperdine Waves +1,000 (17-12, 10-8) – Behind the Zags, St, Mary’s and BYU, Pepperdine is playing in the shadows of those WCC heavyweights. The Waves won both games with the Cougars, knocked off the Gaels and gave the Bulldogs fits. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 54 points.

 

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Mid-Major Tournaments
By Bruce Marshall

After recently providing a look-ahead to the postseason extravaganzas conducted by the major conferences two weeks ago, we provide a quick preview for the conference tournaments of the lower-echelon Division I leagues in this edition.

The rather recent introduction of two events (the CollegeInsider.com Tourney, or CIT, and the College Basketball Invitational, or CBI) has provided more postseason slots and thus more opportunities for entries from the low-major leagues to have teams participate in tourneys other than the NCAA and NIT. Several of these loops are now sending multiple entries to the postseason, so it behooves handicappers to begin paying attention to these sides before they enter either the Big Dance, NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Many Las Vegas sports books, which routinely post numbers on several "added" conferences (Big Sky, Metro-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Summit, SoCon), will be including prices on almost all of these minor conference tournaments as well. Note that many of the upcoming conference tournaments will also be televised (the introduction of ESPN-3, which streams on computers, has added countless more college hoops viewing opportunities and will be providing added coverage for many of the lower-rung D-I conference tourneys).

We've listed below, by conference alphabetical order, upcoming tournament specifics for those lower-profile Division I leagues. Also included are any teams that enjoy home-court tourney edges; the top contenders in each loop, noted by italics, with any clear-cut favorite or co-favorite accompanied by an *; and last season's conference results in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT. Before Selection Sunday, we'll also review how these leagues have fared in recent Big Dance action.

March Madness...it's here!

AMERICA EAST...Top 8 teams qualify. Quarterfinals, semis, and final March 6, 8, 14 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Albany enters as the top seed. UMass-Lowell remains in its transition period from Div. II and is ineligible for the conference tournament.

Top contenders - Albany*, Stony Brook, Vermont, New Hampshire.

Notes...Defending tourney champ Albany turned on the jets once conference play commenced and proceeded to run away with the regular-season crown, earning home-court edge for as long as it stays alive in this event. Coach Will Brown's Great Danes have the ability to balance the floor because of the interior scoring threat provided by 6-6 PF Sam Rowley (14.3 ppg & 53% from floor; one of two returning starters from last season), which prevents foes from ganging up on Gs Peter Hooley (13.7 ppg) and 6-2 juco sparkplug Evan Singletary (12.7 ppg). Albany also didn't allow an A-E foe to crack the 70-point barrier until Vermont did it in the final regular-season game.

Stony Brook was the only league rep to beat the Great Danes (and did so on the road) and was good enough to win at Washington in pre-league play when the Huskies were still undefeated and ranked just outside of the national top ten. Beastly 6-8, 260-lb. jr. C Jameel Warney ranks among the nation's rebound leaders (5th at 11.5 pg) and recently exploded for a 32-point, 18-rebound stat line against Hartford. Warney's presence has helped the Seawolves to the nation's No. 4 ranking in rebound margin (+8.8 rpg). Puncher's chances go to Vermont, whose airtight defense allows only 57.6 ppg (ranking 13th nationally), and New Hampshire, which played Albany to the wire in both regular-season meetings, losing by 1 and 2 points, respectively.

Last year...NCAA - Albany lost vs. Florida, 67-55. NIT - Vermont lost at Georgia, 63-56. CBI - Stony Brook lost to Siena, 66-55.

ATLANTIC SUN...Tourney March 3-8 at homecourts of higher seeds. Florida Gulf Coast is the top seed.

Top contenders - North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, South Carolina-Upstate.

Notes...By virtue of last week's 76-62 win over FGCU in Jacksonville, North Florida has earned home-court edge in the A-Sun Tourney. The Ospreys were flying down the stretch, winning five straight to close the regular-season and catch Gulf Coast, relying on a balanced lineup featuring four DD scorers, led by soph G Dallas Moore (15.4 ppg). UNF can be very hard to beat when its triples are falling, as the Ospreys hovered near 40% beyond the arc all season and rank 20th nationally in three-point accuracy (39.6%). Everyone in the lineup can step back and hit 3s. FGCU still has some of the remnants of Andy Enfield's "Dunk City" team that made a longshot run to the Sweet 16 two years ago and made it to the NIT last season for HC Joey Dooley. Senior Gs Bernard Thompson (13.6 ppg) and Brett Comer (12.4 ppg) both played key roles in the unexpected run for Enfield two years ago.

USC-Upstate should at least return to another minor postseason event after winning 21 games this season following advancement to the CIT last March. Note that the Spartans beat North Florida in both regular-season meetings, won at Georgia Tech in pre-league play, and possess the Sun's top scorer in sr. G Ty Greene (20.1 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - Mercer won vs. Duke, 78-71; lost vs. Tennessee, 83-63. NIT - FGCU lost at Florida State, 58-53. CIT - East Tennessee State won vs. Chattanooga, 79-66; lost vs. Towson, 63-60; USC-Upsate lost vs. Towson, 63-60.

BIG SKY...Tourney March 12-14 at home of regular-season champion, unless that happens to be Sacramento State, which will not be able to host at its home Hornet's Nest Gym (capacity 1200) because of size limitations. If Sac State wins the Sky, the tourney could be held at any of three other locations, including the Reno Events Center, San Joaquin Delta College, or McClellan Park Gym. Top eight teams qualify.

Top contenders - Sac State, Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona.

Notes...The Sky's regular-season race remains up for grabs into the final games this weekend. Note that Sky notched a couple of eye-opening non-league wins before New Year's when Eastern Washington won at Indiana and Northern Arizona won at Saint Mary's. For most of the season, regional observers have regarded EWU as the team to beat, with G Tyler Harvey (22.8 ppg) leading the nation in scoring and PF Venky Jois (16.8 ppg) providing the interior scoring threat for the Eagles, who shoot almost 48% from the floor. But seasoned Sac State, with four seniors and a junior in a starting lineup that returned all five starters from a year ago for HC Brian Katz, has stayed near the top of the table all season. The Hornets have a crackling backcourt led by Gs Mikh McKinney (19 ppg), Dylan Garrity (13.6 ppg), and defensive stopper Cody Demps, shoots even better from the floor (48.4%; ranks 13th) than EWU, and also hits 40.5% beyond the arc (ranks 6th).

Montana has been a pleasant surprise for first-year HC and alum Travis DeCuire, who returned only one regular starter, G Jordan Gregory, now scoring a Grizzlies-best 17.2 ppg, but has also been able to benefit from former Washington and juco transfer PF Martin Breuning, a German import who has emerged as an interior force (16.9 ppg). The darkhorse to watch is Jack Murphy's NAU, which has been able to win on the road this season and can play a variety of different styles, but would prefer to run with a pair of former jucos, slashing wing Quinton Upshur (14.6 ppg) and go-go G Aaseem Dixon (12.6 ppg), while 6-4 soph G Kris Yanku has emerged as a difficult matchup and has been on a scoring tear (20.8 ppg last five) in recent weeks. Perennial contender Weber State still has to qualify for the event, and appears unlikely to make a late run with top scorer G Jeremy Senglin (15.4 ppg) currently out with a jaw injury.

Last year...NCAA - Weber State lost vs. Arizona, 68-59. CIT - North Dakota lost at UN-Omaha, 91-75; Northern Colorado lost vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 82-71; Portland State lost at San Diego, 87-65.

BIG SOUTH...Tourney March 4-8 at HTC Center, Conway, SC (home court of Coastal Carolina Chanticleers). The top five finishers receive byes into the quarterfinals; seeds 6 thru 11 compete in a play-in round.

Top contenders - High Point, Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Radford, Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, UNC-Asheville.

Notes...Absolutely wide-open event with the top seven teams separated by just three games in the league standings, which is similar to the logjam a season ago when Cliff Ellis' Chants of Coastal Carolina took advantage of the Myrtle Beach locale to win this event before giving No. 1 regional seed Virginia a mighty scare in the Big Dance sub-regionals. Ellis is back with a similar-looking team with four starters from a year ago, featuring a well-balanced, guard-heavy offense with four DD scorers led by sr. G Josh Cameron (13.2 ppg). The "wow" factor in the loop belongs to Scott Cherry's High Point and its highlight-reel 6-8 F John Brown (18.6 ppg), an ACC-caliber recruit whose windmill dunks have been featured on ESPN Sports Center and who has NBA scouts flocking to the Point. Cherry is also on the coaching radar of several higher-profile suitors likely to come calling after the season (many believe he ends up at George Mason, where he once coached under Jim Larranaga). But the Panthers have lost twice to Coastal Carolina, blowing a big lead at this venue on Feb. 6.

Charleston Southern also just dumped the Point in 3 OTs last Saturday to tie for the reg.-season title, and is regarded as a co-favorite with electrifying league high scorer Saah Nimley (21.5 ppg), a 5'8 bundle of energy who has scored 30 ppg over his last four outings. Gardner-Webb, with high-scoring F Jerome Hill (19.1 ppg), and UNC-Asheville, with explosive G Andrew Rowsey (18.9 ppg; lit up High Point for 39 last week), cannot be dismissed, while Winthrop boasts of one of the nation's top three-point threats in G Keon Moore (3.24 triples pg ranks 6th nationally).

Last year...NCAA - Coastal Carolina lost vs. Virginia, 70-59. NIT-High Point lost at Minnesota, 88-81. CBI - Radford won at Oregon State, 96-92; lost at Old Dominion, 82-59. CIT - VMI won at Canisius, 111-100; won vs. IPFW, 106-95; won at Ohio, 92-90; lost vs. Yale, 92-75.

METRO ATLANTIC...Tourney March 5-9 at Trans Union Center, Albany, NY. The top five seeds get byes in the first round; games will pit 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9, with winners advancing to quarterfinal round.

Top contenders - Iona, Rider, Manhattan, Monmouth.

Notes...Iona enters Albany as the top seed, but the Gaels have not been stretching many margins against MAAC foes, with most league wins by single-digit margins and with no spread covers in their last four. They're also off a loss at St. Peter's in Sunday's regular-season finale. But HC Tim Cluess has navigated through this event several times before, and Iona is once again among the nation's highest scoring teams (79.6 ppg ranks 7th). Four DD scorers include F David Laury (20.1 ppg), G A.J. English (19.5 ppg), and frosh firecracker G Schadrac Casimir (15.2 ppg and 43.8% beyond the arc), who pace the league's most-explosive outfit. Rider might be the hottest Metro-Atlantic entry, with wins in 7 of its last 8 games, and the Broncs have kept winning in recent weeks despite the absence of 6-11 C Matt Lopez, a Utah State transfer and leading scorer at 12.3 ppg...but apparently not yet missed.

Most regional observers believe the Manhattan Jaspers and entertaining HC Steve "Mini Vince Vaughn" Masiello have a shot at replicating last year's tourney upset if top scorer F Emmy Andujar (16.5 ppg) continues to get scoring help from G Ashton Pankey, hitting 56% from the floor over the past five games. King Rice's Monmouth played Iona very tough, winning once and losing by a point on the other occasion, and presents an interesting backcourt contrast with mini 5'8 G Justin Washington (13.4 ppg) and big 6-6 G Deon Jones (17.5 ppg last six). If a longshot is to emerge in Albany, most regional sources are warning about HC John Dunne's defense-tough St. Peter's, off of that Sunday upset over the Gaels.

Last year...NCAA - Manhattan lost vs. Louisville, 71-64. NIT - Iona lost at La Tech, 89-88. CIT - Canisius lost vs. VMI, 111-100; Quinnipiac lost at Yale, 69-68. CBI - Siena (champs) won vs. Stony Brook, 66-55; won vs. Penn State, 54-52; won vs. Illinois State, 61-49; won at Fresno State, 61-57; lost vs. Fresno State, 89-75; won vs. Fresno State, 81-68.

MEAC...Tourney March 9-14 at The Scope, Norfolk, VA (not the home court of Norfolk State, which plays its games at Echols Hall); First round pits seeds 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Florida A&M is ineligible due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - NC Central*, Norfolk State, Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Notes... Like last year when winning this event and advancing to the Big Dance, Levelle Moton's NC Central is the clear favorite entering Norfolk next week, as the Eagles have lost just one league game over the past two seasons (and none yet in the 2014-15 campaign). Only two starters are back from last year's NCAA team, but NCC has been able to benefit from former reserve 6-7 F Jordan Parks, scoring 14.3 ppg and shooting 63.4% from the floor, plus transfer Gs Anthony McDonald (via Mississippi Valley State; 12.9 ppg) and well-traveled all-name Nimrod Hilliard (via South Dakota and Lamar; 11.0 ppg), plus Florida Gulf Coast transfer Dante Holmes (10.6 pgp). The Eagles shoot better than 49% from the floor and are clear favorites in Norfolk. If any team is to challenge, perhaps it will be hometown Norfolk State, with a potent scoring combo of 6-4 G Jeffrey Short (19.3 ppg) & rugged 6-9 PF RaShid Gaston (15.3 ppg & 9.65 rpg), and within four of NCC on Jan. 17. UMES also might be worth watching with its dynamic duo of 6-8 juco F Mike "SNL" Myers (16.2 ppg) and 6-4 combo G Devin Martin (14.2 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - North Carolina Central lost vs. Iowa State, 93-75. CBI - Hampton lost at Penn State, 69-65. CIT - Norfolk State lost at Eastern Michigan, 58-54.

NORTHEAST...Quarterfinals March 4, semis March 7, final March 10, all at home of highest seed.

Top contenders - St. Francis (NY), Robert Morris, Bryant, Mount Saint Mary's.

Notes...The Big Apple might have another NCAA Tourney entrant in Brooklyn-based St. Francis, which emerged as the team to beat in the NE Tourney when running away with the regular-season title. All after beginning the season with five straight losses. The Terriers start no one taller than 6'6 but get a lot of mileage from workhorse PF Jalen Cannon (16.5 ppg & 10.2 rpg), though Cannon played only ten minutes in the regular-season finale vs. Bryant, a game SFC lost by 10, ending its 9-game win streak. Barring Cannon's absence, the Terriers still rate as the favorite in this event. But that result gives Bryant and explosive sr. G Dyami Starks (18.5 ppg) some confidence heading into the conference tourney. Of course, we never want to dismiss the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, which has been to the postseason numerous times under HC Andy Toole and won at SFC on Jan. 24. The recent return to active duty of all-name sr. F Lucky Jones (14 ppg) is a boost for the Colonials.

Last year...NCAA - Mount Saint Mary's lost play-in game vs. Albany, 71-64. NIT - Robert Morris won at St. John's, 89-78; lost at Belmont, 82-71.

OHIO VALLEY...Tourney March 4-7 at Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN (not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays its games at the Gentry Complex, or Nashville-based Belmont, which plays its games at the Mike Curb Events Center).

Top contenders - Murray State*, UT-Martin, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont, Morehead State.

Notes...Steve Prohm's Murray State enters this week's tourney with the longest non-Kentucky win streak in the country (24 games), the last 16 of those vs. OVC foes. Postseason-savvy after last year's run to the CIT title, and with four starters back from that team, the Racers have the most efficient and effective attack in the Valley, led by soph G Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) and an offense that scores 78.8 ppg (ranks 13th), hits 48.3% from the floor (ranks 16th), and 39% beyond the arc. But keep in mind that the Racers enter the postseason having covered just 3 of their last 10 vs. the line. On their best night, the UT-Martin Skyhawks, coached by former Wyoming HC Heath Schroyer, have proven they can be a handful. (Note the UNLV connection at Martin, where Skyhawk AD Julio Friere was asst. AD, and from where he brought Schroyer from the Dave Rice staff, and from where Schroyer brought transfer G "Coupe" Deville Smith. scoring a UTM-best 14 ppg).

EKU was an upset winner in this event last season and recently got top scorer G Corey Walden (18.6 ppg; scored 35 last Saturday vs. Tennessee Tech) back from injury, while hometown Belmont and HC Rick Byrd, with several previous Big Dance visits, cannot be dismissed, especially with jr. G Craig Bradshaw (17.8 ppg) still in the fold. If looking for a longshot, perhaps take a peek at SE Missouri State, close in most of its losses and with one of the OVC's most-dangerous threats in versatile 6-5 swingman Jarekious Bradley (15.9 ppg; scored 28 in last Saturday's romp past Austin Peay).

Last Year...NCAA - Eastern Kentucky lost vs. Kansas, 80-69. NIT - Belmont won at Green Bay, 80-65; won vs. Robert Morris, 82-71; lost at Clemson, 73-68. CBI - Morehead State lost at Illinois State, 77-67. CIT - Murray State (champs) won at Missouri State, 66-63; won vs. UN-Omaha, 86-62; won vs. Towson, 85-73; won vs. Pacific, 98-75; won vs. Yale, 65-57.

PATRIOT...Tourney March 3, 5, 8, 11 all at home of higher seeds. Top four seeds receive byes in first round.

Top contenders - Bucknell, Colgate, Lehigh.

Notes...Most in the region figured Lafayette or Holy Cross would be the teams to beat in the Patriot this season, but instead it was the alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, Bucknell, emerging from nowhere to steal the regular-season crown and earn top seed in the conference tourney. Though, upon inspection, competitive losses to Villanova, Penn State, and Wake Forest in pre-league play hinted that the Bison were better than their 5-8 SU non-Patriot record. Bucknell (38.9% triples) can shoot it from deep, though top scorer G Chris Hass (15.4 ppg) has gone stone cold in a handful of recent games. The Bison are not untouchable. Colgate also took its lumps in a bumpy 3-10 non-conference SU ride, but its collection of sharpshooters hits 48.4% from the floor (15th nationally) and almost 40% beyond the arc. Looming ominously is preseason favorite Lafayette, sitting at mid-table at the conclusion of the season but with the most-explosive offense in the league (73.8 ppg and 40.2% beyond the arc), though it's 6-9 Aussie Dan Trist (17.7 ppg and 58% from floor while working solely near the bucket) that differentiates the Leopards from other contenders.

Last Year...NCAA - American lost vs. Wisconsin, 75-35. NIT - Boston U lost vs. Illinois, 66-62. CIT - Holy Cross won at Brown, 68-65; lost vs. Yale, 71-66.

SOUTHERN...Tourney March 6-9 at U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC.

Top contenders - Wofford, Chattanooga, Mercer, ETSU.

Notes...Defending conference tourney champ Wofford no longer had Davidson (off to the A-10) to worry about this season and quickly took charge of the league race. Vet HC Mike Young has taken several Terrier teams to the Dance, and the current version once again spins around savvy sr. G Karl Cochran (15 ppg), with jr. backcourt mate Spencer Collins often providing needed relief (such as Collins' 26-point effort in last week's crucial win at Mercer). Wofford, however, needs to be wary of stretch-running Chattanooga, coached by former Shaka Smart VCU aide Will Wade, who is going to be on many short lists of higher-profile schools looking for a coach in the offseason. The well-balanced Mighty Mocs won at Wofford on Feb. 12 and enter Greenville on a 6-game SU win streak. At 6'5, jr. G Casey Jones is a matchup headache and leads UTC at 14.2 ppg, with three others also averaging double-digit scoring. Mercer is over this season from the A-Sun, from where it qualified for the Dance and beat Duke a year ago, and vet HC Bob Hoffman also took the Bears to the CIT title a few years ago. All new starters this season, but Mercer remains a tough out with its deliberate style and solid defense.

Last year...NCAA - Wofford lost vs. Michigan, 57-40. NIT - Davidson lost at Missouri, 85-77. CIT - Chattanooga lost at East Tennessee (then a member of the Atlantic Sun), 79-66.

SOUTHLAND...Tourney March 11-14 at Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist, and Lamar are all ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - Stephen F. Austin*, Sam Houston State, Northwestern State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Notes...SFA and Sam Houston are once again the top seeds in this event, and the Lumberjacks need no introduction after making some noise in the Big Dance last March when upsetting VCU in the sub-regionals at San Diego. Coach Brad Underwood, a onetime Frank Martin aide, has a deadly-shooting team that hits 49.1% from the floor (7th best nationally) and three starters, including LY's Southland MVP Jacob Parker, still in the fold from the noisemakers of last March. Note that SFA took highly-ranked Northern Iowa into OT at Cedar Falls in November. Sam Houston gets another crack at the Lumberjacks in the regular-season finale on Saturday, and the Bearkats like to do it with defense, allowing only 58.4 ppg (ranks 16th). The team Southland onlookers are keeping an eye on is dangerous Corpus Christi, the only league rep to beat SFA over the past two seasons (the Islanders turned the trick on Feb. 14) and for good measure having dumped Sam Houston last week. AMCC, coached by former Rice HC Willis Wilson, is led by do-everything sr. G John Jordan (15.2 ppg & 5.2 apg).

Last Year...NCAA - Stephen F. Austin won vs. VCU in OT, 77-75; lost vs. UCLA, 77-60. CIT - Sam Houston State won vs. Alabama State, 71-49; lost vs. San Diego. 77-72; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won at Northern Colorado, 82-71; lost at Pacific, 89-60.

SWAC...Tourney March 10-14 at Toyota Center, Houston, TX. Alabama State is ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties; Southern U is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to failure to supply usable academic data to the NCAA, but will participate in the SWAC Tournament.

Top contenders - Texas Southern, Southern Prairie View, Jackson State.

Notes...The ineligibility of Alabama State has taken a top contender out of the league tourney. Thus, the path is paved for Texas Southern, which will have a hometown edge in the conference tourney that is being played a few miles from campus at the Houston Rockets' fancy Toyota Center. The Tigers opened some eyes in December with upset wins on the road at Michigan State and Kansas State, although this is one team that does not rely on the 3-ball, converting only 29.8% beyond the arc. The recent return of Nebraska transfer G Deverell Biggs (10.1 ppg) has given familiar HC Mike Davis his full complement of players, however, and the deepest roster in the SWAC deserves to be favored in Houston. With a 16-12 overall SU record, and with Alabama State ineligible, the Tigers are going to be the only team with a winning SU record next week at the Toyota Center.

Last year...NCAA - Texas Southern lost play-in game vs. Cal Poly, 81-69. CIT - Alabama State lost at Sam Houston State, 71-49.

SUMMIT...Tourney March 7-10 at the brand new Denny Sanford PREMIER Center, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena, or nearby, Vermillion-based South Dakota, which plays its home games at the Dakota Dome). Nebraska-Omaha remains in its transition period from Division II and is ineligible for the conference tourney, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT. The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference.

Top contenders - North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, IPFW.

Notes...This wildly-supported event in Sioux Falls moves into the new 13,000-seat Denny Sanford PREMIER Center and promises one of the most crackling atmospheres of all postseason events. Regional observers believe there is no clear-cut favorite, though they expect the final might come down to a border war between the "States" of North Dakota and South Dakota. Both have recent NCAA Tourney pedigrees, with the Bison of NDSU having qualified a year ago (and upsetting Oklahoma in the sub-regionals), though HC Saul Phillips moved to Ohio after last season. Star Bison sr. G Lawrence Alexander (19.3 ppg) might be the top player in the loop. The teams split their regular-season meetings, though Scott Nagy's SDSU Jackrabbits enter Sioux Falls off a stunning 80-64 upset at the hands of state rival South Dakota. Oral Roberts, back in the Summit after a recent stint in the Southland, and stretch-running IPFW, which lost to NDSU in the Summit final a year ago and owns one of the most intriguing weapons in the league in 6'9, 295-lb., C Steve "Not That Steve Forbes" Forbes (13.9 ppg), should be watched closely.

Last year...NCAA - North Dakota State beat Oklahoma in OT, 80-75; lost to San Diego State, 63-44. CBI - South Dakota State lost at Old Dominion, 72-65. CIT - IPFW won vs. Akron, 97-91; lost at VMI, 106-95; UN-Omaha won vs. North Dakota, 91-75; lost at Murray State, 86-62.

WAC...Tourney March 12-14 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Grand Canyon remains in its transition period from Division II and will be ineligible for the conference tournament, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Top contenders - New Mexico State*, UMKC, Seattle, CS Bakersfield.

Notes...The exception to the rule of conference tourneys, as no one shows up for this event at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas unless NMSU happens to be playing. And it should be an Aggie show once more, even with the Las Cruces bunch not as big or as formidable as recent seasons. But the rest of the league is suspect, and thus NMSU is an overwhelming favorite once more (and the WAC's only chance to have its champ avoid a 16 vs. 16 play-in game). The latest international discovery of HC Marvin Menzies, 6-9 Cameroonian frosh F Pascal Siakam (13.5 ppg; brother James plays at Vanderbilt), has emerged as a new Aggie star alongside 6-8 Parisian F Remi Barry (13.4 ppg) and 6-4 Canadian skywalker Daniel Mullings (13.2 ppg), back after missing more than a month due to injury. Cameron Dollar's Seattle U is the only WAC team to beat NMSU this season, and it would be a shocker if Menzies and the Aggies don't qualify for their fourth straight Big Dance.

Last year...NCAA - New Mexico State lost in OT vs. San Diego State, 73-69. NIT - Utah Valley lost at Cal, 77-64. CIT - Grand Canyon lost vs. Pacific, 69-67.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WCC Betting Notebook
By Marc Lawrence

WEST COAST CONFERENCE

Date: March 6-10
Venue: Orleans Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 6
Game 1 - San Francisco vs. Pacific
Game 2 - Santa Clara vs. Loyola Marymount

Saturday, March 7
Game 3 - Saint Mary's vs. Portland
Game 4 - Pepperdine vs. San Diego
Game 5 - Gonzaga vs. Game 1 Winner
Game 6 - BYU vs. Game 2 Winner

Monday, March 9
Game 7 - Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner
Game 8 - Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Tuesday, March 10
Championship - Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

TECH NOTES:

-- Favs 7-1 w/revenge… dogs > 8 pts off DD ATS win are 7-2 ATS…
-- Favs 9-3 off BB SU losses…
-- DD favorites 0-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…
-- DD favs 0-6 off ATS loss… dogs < 4 pts are 1-6 ATS vs opp w/revenge…
-- #3 seeds are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS as favorites 5 > points…
-- #4 seed dogs are 2-10 ATS…
-- #5 seeds are 11-3 ATS as favorites < 14 pts… #7 seeds are 0-6 ATS off a SU win…
-- #8 seed dogs are 4-12 ATS.

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Pepperdine

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Mighty GONZAGA has cut down the nets 11 of the last 14 years in this tourney while arriving to the title game all fourteen times in the process. The Zags’ 30-4 SU record all-time in this tourney speaks volumes and they are once again the team to beat as they continue their surge to earn a top seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Aside from being the most accurate shooting team in the nation, the Zags also rank in the Top 20 in 3-point shooting, defensive field percentage and rebounding. One note of caution, though: the Bulldogs are just 4-8 ATS as favorites of 12 or more points in this tourney, including 0-3 the last three...

Like Gonzaga, SAINT MARY’S has become a fixture in the finals of the WCC tournament, playing for the title five of the last six years while winning two championships in the process. And like the Zags, Mary is a glass cleaner with a +6.9 rebound margin. Good news for the Gaels: they are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS versus No. 3 or lower seeds in this tourney. The bad news: 1-8 SUATS versus No. 1 seeds...

BYU is playing its best ball of the season while dominating weaker opponents away from Provo this year, going 7-1 SU/ATS. The larger task at hand, though, will be overcoming a 1-12 ATS run of late in this tourney, including a 0-8 ATS record in games when not favored...

PEPPERDINE was the biggest spread-winner in the loop this season (17-8-1 ATS at press time, including 6-0 ATS as puppies of more than 5 points). The Wave is also riding a 22-9 ATS skein away from Malibu the past two seasons, including 14-3 ATS when playing off a win. We’ll continue to ride them here.

THE SLEEPER: SAN FRANCISCO
The Dons move back into their annual ‘sleeper’ slot thanks in large part to head coach Rex Walters and his dominating 92-62 ATS career mark in conference games, including 7-3 ATS in this tourney with Frisco. The Dons are also 12-6 ATS away from the city of Rice-a-Roni versus .666 or greater foes the last five seasons, including 3-0 ATS in this tourney. Now that’s a San Francisco treat.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, PACIFIC, SAN FRANCISCO AND SANTA CLARA VERSUS BYU
The Lions, Tigers, Dons and Broncos each fell twice to the Cougars this season, setting up an inspired revenge scenario. That’s because BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven conference tourney contests against foes seeking same-season double revenge-exact (not to mention the Mormons’ overall struggles in this tourney). Once again, we’re betting the Tabernacle Choir is not capable of pulling the hat trick against any of these entries in this tournament.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

WISCONSIN BADGERS (26-3) at MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (17-12)

Williams Arena – Minneapolis, MN
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -

No. 6 Wisconsin looks to improve its seed in the NCAA tournament with a road win against Minnesota Thursday.

Wisconsin hosted Michigan State on Sunday and came away with a 68-61 win as a 9-point home favorite. The Badgers were up big all game, but the Spartans kept fighting and came away with a backdoor cover. Wisconsin has won 11 of its past 12 games SU, but the team is just 4-7-1 ATS in those contests and hasn’t covered in each of its past four games.

Minnesota, meanwhile, beat Michigan State in its last game as well. The Golden Gophers went into East Lansing and won 96-90 as 8-point underdogs. The victory prevented Minnesota from losing its fourth straight game SU, and the team has covered in two straight now.

These teams last met on Feb. 21, when Wisconsin beat Minnesota 63-53 as a 14.5-point home favorite. The Badgers have won three straight games in this head-to-head series SU and seven of the past 10 SU as well. The Golden Gophers are 6-4 ATS in those games, but Wisconsin has won SU in four of its past five trips to Minneapolis. The Badgers are also 3-2 ATS in those games.

While Wisconsin has won 14 of its 16 conference games this season, the team is just 5-10-1 ATS. Minnesota hasn’t fared any better though, going 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS versus Big Ten opponents.

G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is out for this game, but should be back soon for the Badgers. The Golden Gophers are not currently dealing with any injuries.

The Badgers are one of the best two-way teams in college basketball, putting up 71.5 PPG (79th in NCAA) on 47.8% shooting (24th in NCAA) and allowing just 55.8 PPG (7th in NCAA). Bo Ryan coaches this team in a way that allows them to limit turnovers and emphasize taking advantage of mismatches.

C Frank Kaminsky (18.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 BPG) is one of the leading candidates to be the Naismith College Player of the Year. The big man is nearly impossible to guard with his ability to score around the basket and shoot out to the three-point line (42% 3PT). He had 31 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals in 37 minutes against Michigan State last game and 21 points (9-for-13 FG, 2-for-3 3PT) the last time he faced Minnesota. Kaminsky did, however, have just five rebounds in that game and will need to be more effective on the glass because the Golden Gophers outrebounded the Badgers 29-27 when these teams met in Madison.

F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another guy that is extremely tough to cover. Hayes had nine points, seven rebounds, three assists and a block the last time he faced Minnesota. He’s averaging 12.0 PPG over the past two contests and the Badgers will look to get him more involved this time around. Hayes has a very nice midrange jumper and also has the ability to really crash the boards when he has the right mindset. He’ll need to be aggressive as a rebounder in this one.

F Sam Dekker (12.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had one of his worst games of the season against the Golden Gophers. Dekker had just five points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-2 3PT) and three rebounds in 36 minutes that game and must find his stroke this time around. One thing he did do well was defend, as he blocked three shots in that game. Wisconsin needs Dekker to play well on both ends of the floor though.

G Bronson Koenig (7.6 PPG, 2.3 APG) continues to thrive as a starter for this team. Koenig was superb when he faced Minnesota last time, finishing with 17 points (4-for-10 FG, 3-for-6 3PT, 6-for-6 FT) and three assists in 39 minutes. He’ll need to take care of the ball and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates on Thursday.

Minnesota has played very well offensively this season, putting up 74.4 PPG (34th in NCAA) on 46.3% shooting (63rd in NCAA). This team moves the ball very well (15.9 APG, 13th in NCAA), but is not strong on the glass (33.1 RPG, 235th in NCAA).

They did, however, outrebound Wisconsin the last time they played them. Where this team struggles is on the defensive end, allowing 66.6 PPG (173rd in NCAA) despite 10.0 SPG (3rd in NCAA). The Golden Gophers will need to find a way to slow down a very efficient Badgers offense on Thursday.

G Andre Hollins (14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) is the most important player for Minnesota. Hollins had 17 points and four assists in 30 minutes in the win over Michigan State on Thursday, but he had just two points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-3 3PT) and two assists in the loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 21. Hollins is this team’s leading scorer and he will need to knock down some shots against the Badgers this game.

F Maurice Walker (11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) will also need to play well in this game. Walker had eight points, nine rebounds and two blocks in 29 minutes the last time he faced Wisconsin. He’ll need to be a little bit better offensively this time around. He is one of Minnesota’s most reliable scorers and will need to come through in this one.

G DeAndre Mathieu (8.5 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 SPG) had 11 points in 21 minutes in the last meeting between these teams. Mathieu is an excellent passer and knows how to get into the passing lanes. He should be in for bigger minutes this time around and will certainly be ready if his number is called late in the game.

G Nate Mason (9.6 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is yet another excellent backcourt player for this team. Mason is a very good outside shooter (41% 3PT) and had 11 points and five assists the last time these teams played. If he can find a way to create some turnovers then he’ll really be helping his team in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Hoops'

Badgers hope to solidify their hold on top spot in the Big Ten Conference with a victory over Minnesota Golden Gophers on Thursday. Badgers have reeled off a 14-2 record in conference play (5-10-1 ATS) however both blemishes have come in trips away from Kohl Center. Badgers lead by Frank Kaminsky (18.1) dropping a whopping 54.9% of his shots leads three players in double digits helping Wisky generate 72.3 PPG. Defensively, Badgers are the best defensive team in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country allowing just 55.7 PPG on 41.7% shooting. On the other side, Gophers having major challenges in the Big Ten have won just 6-of-16 matchups posting a 5-11 mark against the betting line. Gophers no slouches in putting the ball through the hoop average 74.4 per/contest behind three of it's own double digit scorers. But, defensively, Gophers are second worst in the conference allowing 66.6 PPG on 43.0% shooting. Badgers defeated Gophers 63-53 in Madison earlier this season but failed at the betting window as 14.5 point home chalk moving the mark to 1-5-1 ATS last seven meetings. Another interesting trends to be aware of. Gophers 1-7-1 ATS last 8 taking 6 or less points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wisconsin (-14) beat Minnesota 63-53 at home in first meeting 12 days ago; Gophers took one foul shot in whole game (Wisconsin was 11-14). Badgers lost last road game at Maryland, are 3-4 as road favorites, with four of six road wins by 8+ points. Minnesota lost three of its last four games, covered three of last four as an underdog; Gophers are 4-3 in Big 14 home games, with losses by 2-2-6 points. Big 14 underdogs of 6 or less points are 10-7 vs spread.

Arkansas (-6.5) waxed South Carolina 75-55 at home Feb 3, holding them to 27.9% from floor, forcing 20 turnovers in game that was 35-28 at half. Razorbacks won seven of last eight games, are 5-3 on SEC road, with six of eight games decided by 5 or less points (1-3 as road favorite). Carolina won three of last four home games but is 1-7 as an underdog this season. Gamecocks split last six games after starting SEC play 2-9. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-7 vs spread.

Memphis (-2) beat UConn 75-72 at home two weeks ago, despite giving up 19 offensive boards in game they led by 15 early in second half. Tigers lost last two games, are 4-3 on AAC road, 0-2 as road dogs, losing games on foreign soil by 14-18-11 points. UConn won last three games, is 2-5 as home favorite, winning last seven home games by 6+ points. Senior Night for Huskies' Boatright, key guy on national title team last season. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-6-1 vs spread.

VCU (-9) beat Davidson 71-65 Jan 7, forcing only 15 turnovers (+5) but Rams had defensive ace Weber then; VCU lost its last two games, is 3-4 in its last seven, losing two of last three road games. Davidson won last seven games; its Senior Night for Wildcat squad with only one senior in rotation- they're 7-1 as home favorites, with only loss to St Bonaventure. Davidson/Dayton are tied atop A-14; VCU can tie Davidson here. A-14 home favorites of more than 8 points are 12-15-1 vs spread.

Stanford (-6.5) beat Arizona State 89-70 at home Jan 24, leading 51-41 at half, scoring 1.29 ppp; Cardinal is just 3-5 in its last eight games though, losing last three road games by 1-16-6 points- they're 0-2 as Pac-12 dogs. ASU won its last three home games by total of ten points; they're 2-5 as Pac-12 favorite, 5-5 SU in last ten games. Stanford makes 38.3% on arc; Sun Devils are worst in Pac-12 defending the arc. Pac-12 home teams are 18-15 in games where spread was less than 5 points.

Sacramento State has game lead in Big Sky with two to play; if they win regular season title, they'll host Big Sky tourney for first time next week. Hornets won last three games by 7-8-13 points; they're 4-3 on Big sky road, with one win by more than seven points. Southern Utah won four of last six games after starting league play 2-8; they've covered six of last seven games, are 4-2 as home underdogs, with one loss at home by more than 4 points. Big Sky home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-9.

MVC tournament, St Louis
Missouri State beat Southern Illinois twice this season, 53-50 (+3) Dec 31 on road, 52-46 (-3) at home a month later; Salukis shot 33% in both games, had 58-25 edge in FTs taken - they're 2-7 in MVC tourney last seven years. Missouri State is 5-5 in this event last five years; they lost six of last eight games overall, are 6-7-1 as Valley underdogs. Salukis lost nine of last eleven games, are 2-3 as MVC favorites. Bears were just 7-31 on arc in two wins over SIU.

Drake beat Bradley twice this season, 69-57 (+8) in Peoria Jan 28, then 60-54 (-2) at home two weeks late; Bulldogs made 18-36 on arc in those games, Bradley just 13-46. Drake lost four of last six games, but covered four of last six as an underdog; they're 2-5 in this event since winning it in '08. Bradley lost its last seven games (1-4-2 vs spread); they lost last four games in this event, three by 14+ points, are 0-4 as an MVC favorite this season. These are four worst teams in MVC, not lot to choose from. .

MAAC tournament, Albany
Siena swept Niagara this year, beating Eagles 79-69 (-8.5) here (ran out to 21-1 lead) Jan 11, then 74-70 (+2) on road a week later; they made 50%+ from floor in both games, but Siena comes in here on 5-game skid- they're 2-9 in last 11 games, 3-4-1 as MAAC favorite. Niagara won its last four games, with three wins by 4 or less points. after starting 3-13 in MAAC play; they're 5-3 as MAAC underdogs. Siena is 7-1 in first game of this tourney last eight years; Niagara is 5-1 the last six years.

Fairfield lost 12 of last 13 games; win was 57-43 (+3.5) over St Peter's 12 days ago, holding Peacocks to 29.6% from floor. Stags covered five of last six games overall; they won first game in this event five of last six years; St Peter's lost four of last five games, is 3-10 vs spread when favored this season; they're 2-5 in first tourney game last seven years. St Peter's beat Fairfield 69-58 (-5.5) in first meeting Feb 7; they were +8 in turnovers in that game.

Quinnipiac beat Marist twice this season, 66-54 (-13) in first meeting on Jan 11, then 72-71 (-6.5) at Marist a week later; Bobcats come in losing four of last five games- they're 4-3 against spread in last seven games as favorite. Marist lost six of last seven games but is 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as an underdog. Red Foxes lost their first tourney game last two years by 2-6 points. Quinnipiac ended last year on 1-4 skid; they're on another 1-4 skid now.

Ohio Valley tournament, Nashville
Tenn-Martin (-1.5) beat Morehead State 75-72 in OT at home Jan 10, in only meeting this season; Skyhawks were down four with 4:01 left that night. Martin lost two of last three games, covered one of last four when favored, but they had bye last night, while Morehead won tough game by 5 over SE Missouri State, with only one Eagle playing more than 27:00- they used three subs 13+ minutes. This is only third time in decade that Martin had winning record; they won first tourney game other times.

Over last nine years, Belmont is 19-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins went 7-43 from arc in 74-63 loss at Eastern Illinois Jan 10, only meeting this season. EIU used two guys 33-38 minutes in win over Edwardsville last night; no one else played more than 29:00. Panthers lost by 19 to Belmont in only meeting LY. Bruins come in to this tourney winning last four games, covering five of last seven as a favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

-- San Diego State 60, UNLV 58-- Referee David Hall worked his 89th game in 111 nights this college basketball season.

-- Eight of UNLV's last nine losses were by 6 or less points or in overtime.

-- Turns out that Jim Harbaugh is a big fan of Judge Judy's TV show; who knew?

-- Odd fact: Werner Ladder is the official ladder of the NCAA tournament.

-- Dodgers apparently have offered to pay about half of the $56M they owe Andre Ethier over the next three years, if some team will trade for him.

-- Leftfield bleachers in Wrigley Field won't be available until at least May 11; ones in rightfield not until June at the earliest, as renovations at the ballpark are dragging. .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB BETTING: 2015 MLB PREVIEW: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Scott Spreitzer

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2014: 64-98
2015 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 71.5


MANAGER: Chip Hale (first season)

PITCHING:

The starting rotation is a glaring weakness to start the season. I could wrap-up the “Snakes” pitching preview simply by stating that Josh Collmenter is likely to be their opening day starter. The right-hander has 141 career appearances under his belt, but only 63 have come as a starter. His ERA as a starter is nearly one run higher than it is when he comes out of the pen. By the late stages of the season, you may not even find Collmenter in the rotation. The 29-year old may get the nod opening day due to the fact the D-backs have a lot of question marks behind him to start the 2015 campaign. Jeremy Hellickson comes over from Tampa Bay, but fly-ball pitchers don't normally find success at Chase Field. There are at least seven other potential starters entering spring ball, including top prospect Archie Bradley whose 2014 season was hamstrung by injuries. Bradley looks to be 100 percent healthy entering spring ball, and has been clocked at a top speed of 96 mph, which was faster than he was throwing in the minors last year. We expect Bradley to spend the opening weeks in the minors, but should be called-up to Phoenix during the summer. He has the “goods” to eventually become the team's ace. As for now, the rotation looks shaky with Collmenter leading the way. Other likely members of the April rotation include: Chase Anderson, Rubby De La Rosa, and Allen Webster. That's a rotation of nothing by righties. Left-hander Patrick Corbin is expected back in June after recovering from Tommy John Surgery. Vidal Nuno came to Arizona via trade last summer. Nuno enjoyed success with a higher strikeout rate as one would expect coming to the NL from the AL. Nuno will battle for a rotation spot with at least three other pitchers and a young crop of arms.

BULLPEN

Addison Reed struggled in the desert as the closer in 2014, but did finish with a decent K/BB ratio. Brad Ziegler and Oliver Perez are the set-up men. I'll be interested in Ziegler's results early-on. The righty was strong in the first half of the season in 2014, but injuries dented his numbers over the second half of the season. Perez has been outstanding from the left-side of the mound over the last two seasons. Randall Delgado struggled in 2014, but will start the season in long-relief in all likelihood. Those who miss the rotation will battle with Daniel Hudson, Matt Reynolds, and Evan Marshall for time out of the pen.

LINEUP

The strength of this team is their middle-of-the-order power. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, RF Mark Trumbo, and likely 3B Yasmany Tomas should make this a fun team to watch at the plate. If Trumbo can stay away from injury and Tomas is even close to the hype, opposing hurlers may be in for long nights at Chase Field. There were only 11 30-HR hitters in MLB last season. Arizona has three potential 30-HR hitters heading into 2015. They ought to get their share of chances to drive in runs with CF A.J. Pollack leading things off.

OUTLOOK:

Arizona will score runs, no doubt about it. The pitching rotation is shaky to start the season, but there's enough potential to make the Diamondbacks a NL West spoiler down the stretch this summer and let's not diminish my respect for new skipper Chip Hale, who helped put the small-payroll Oakland A's into the win column at an awfully high rate. I do believe this team will escape the dreaded 60's for a win total. I also believe the Diamondbacks have enough to climb over the 71.5 win total at the Westgate Super Book. However, I can't see this team topping 75 wins, so they won't likely be a play for me. Arizona's big jump may be just a season away.

Thanks, and good luck as always! Scott Spreitzer

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB BETTING: 2015 MLB PREVIEW: ATLANTA BRAVES
Scott Spreitzer

ATLANTA BRAVES

2014: 79-83
2015 OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL: 74.5


MANAGER: Fredi Gonzalez (5th season)

PITCHING:

Fredi and staff have said they're not going to reveal their exact pitching rotation quite yet. But based on one confirmation, Gonzalez expects Julio Teheran to be the man on the mound when the regular seasons gets underway in April. I would suspect the rest of the rotation will go in the order of Alex Wood with Shelby Miller next. Wood is a southpaw, who'll start between a pair of right-handers. Mike Minor, if healthy, will most likely take the fourth spot. But Minor was scratched from a Grapefruit League start already, due to shoulder soreness. This is worrisome for the Braves after Minor suffered from shoulder issues throughout 2014. If Minor doesn't fully heal by the start of the regular season, Mike Foltynewicz, Manny Banuelos, Eric Stults, and Wandy Rogriguez will battle for the fourth and fifth spots. Like Minor, Teheran is a fly-ball pitcher and there is concern after his velocity dropped by over 1 mph last season, after dropping another mph just a couple seasons prior to 2014. Teheran's 2.89 ERA may be a thing of the past as we saw some of his metrics head in the wrong direction last season. The shaky rotation and a weakened defense with two-thirds of the outfield no longer in Braves' uniforms means this rotation is going to struggle.

BULLPEN

Craig Kimbrel has been a rock and if Atlanta could get to him often, the Braves would be in great shape. But the weakened lineup and the fact two of his set-up men are no longer in Atlanta means we may see less of the star closer. As hard as he has thrown, his velocity was just fine a season ago, but will need to keep the free passes down. The Braves were expecting big things from Shae Simmons, but the 24-year old potential star underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss the 2015 season. Jason Grilli should see an uptick in 2015, but he is closing in on 40 years of age and will vie for a set-up spot. Jim Johnson is a far cry from the pitcher we saw in 2012, dramatically and quickly falling off from that 51 save season. The Braves' pitching coaches will work to get Johnson back on track to a certain extent, but with his control far from where it was just three seasons ago, he remains a question mark at best – as does the relief staff in general. Losing Simmons was certainly a major blow.

LINEUP

The 2014 Atlanta Braves finished second to last in the NL in runs scored. It's hard to imagine much of an improvement in 2015. Jason Heyward was traded to the Cardinals and Justin Upton is no longer a Brave after slamming 29 home runs and driving in 102 RBI. Melvin (formerly known as B.J.) Upton was hoping to turn around his fortunes at the plate after failing to top a .210 batting average the last two seasons. Upton may have to wait after suffering from inflammation in his left foot. He could miss the first month of the regular season while he recovers. There's nothing wrong with 1B Freddie Freeman, but with all the changes and nagging injuries, Atlanta will need key offensive production from Nick Markakis and Alberto Callaspo. It wouldn't hurt if 3B Chris Johnson can bounce back after a poor 2014 season at the plate. Johnson was terrible against right-handers and after opening the season in the clean-up slot, he finished 2014 hitting form the six and seven holes more often than not. Speaking of “holes,” SS Andrelton Simmons is exactly that on offense. And while I like Christian Bethancourt behind the plate (he'll get more starts than A.J. Pierzynski) he's a stiff with a bat.

OUTLOOK

Last November, I read a David Schoenfield article on ESPN that was entitled, “Braves Could Be One of the Worst Teams in 2015.” He mentioned the Braves won 96 games as recently as 2013 and suffered an unexpected drop to 79 wins last season, leading to a likely overhaul of the club. He was correct. The pitchers brought in are not ready for primetime, including Miller, who's simply overrated when you look at his numbers. Atlanta's offense will struggle from the opening pitch. And like Schoenfield said four months ago, maybe it would be wise to trade Kimbrel down the line for decent young talent, and restock a mediocre-at-best farm system. After all, a great closer on a bad team is useless. I have to agree. Atlanta has received some action in a positive manner with their win total rising a full game to 74.5 at Westgate SuperBook, but we won't pluck our money down on the Over, because I expect a 70-to-75 win season in 2015 for the Atlanta Braves.

Thanks, and good luck as always! Scott Spreitzer

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Opening Lines Thursday
by Alan Matthews

Davidson’s basketball program is probably best known as the alma mater of likely 2015 NBA MVP Steph Curry of the Golden State Warriors. He led the Wildcats to the regional final of the NCAA Tournament in 2008. Davidson didn’t return to the Big Dance until 2012 and was back in ’13 but missed out last year. The school has big one at home against Virginia Commonwealth on Thursday night to help boost the Wildcats’ at-large chances for this March. Davidson is the type of well-coached club no Power 5 team would want to face in the first round. Here’s a look at that game and two others that caught my eye.

No. 18 Arkansas at South Carolina (+1.5)

This SEC matchup is at 7 p.m. on ESPN2. Arkansas doesn’t have to worry about an NCAA Tournament bid. The Hogs are listed as a No. 5 seed in the East Region. This could be a major letdown game because in reality the Razorbacks have little to play for right now and they might be looking ahead to the home finale this week. South Carolina is simply playing out the string.

Another reason I don’t like Arkansas here is I don’t know how the Hogs aren’t flat after losing their game of the year on Saturday, 84-67 at Kentucky. That ended Arkansas’ seven-game winning streak. Just for a point of comparison, after losses earlier this season at Iowa State and Tennessee, the Hogs then lost the next game as well. UK’s amazing defense held the SEC’s top scoring team to just 37.5 percent shooting and 12 points below its average. The Hogs were 0-for-9 from long range in scoring 26 first-half points and trailing by 16. South Carolina (14-14, 5-11) ended a two-game losing streak with an 81-68 home win over Mississippi State on Saturday. Senior guard Tyrone Johnson had a career-high 28 points, and USC shot 46.3 percent (25-for-54) from the field, its highest percentage in 12 games. South Carolina’s 81 points vs. Mississippi State was its the most in an SEC game this season.

On Feb. 3 in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks beat the Gamecocks 75-55. Hogs star Bobby Portis had 18 points and 13 rebounds. Arkansas held USC to 27.9 percent (17-for-61) shooting and scored 21 points off 20 turnovers. Sindarius Thornwell led South Carolina with 16 points.

Key trends: Arkansas is 1-7 ATS in its past eight following an ATS loss. The Hogs are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. USC is 2-6 ATS in its past eight at home. It is 0-5 ATS in its past five following a win. Arkansas is 1-5 ATS in the past six at South Carolina.

Why take the underdog: I’ll admit that I thought USC would be getting a few more points, but this shapes up as an outright upset.

Temple at East Carolina (+6)

This American Athletic Conference game starts at 7 p.m. on ESPNU. The Owls have to have it as they are currently listed among the “Last Four In” and are a No. 12 seed, facing fellow No. 12 BYU in a play-in game in Dayton. ECU can play spoiler.

Temple (20-9, 11-5) ended a two-game losing streak with a 66-54 home win over Houston last Thursday. Junior guard Quenton DeCosey led the Owls with 16 points and tied his career high with nine rebounds, helping the Owls notch their 20th win of the season. Coach Fran Dunphy is now only three wins away from 500 in his career and has led the Owls to 20+ wins seven times in his nine seasons at the helm. Temple is the group that can’t shoot straight, ranking 340th in the nation with a field-goal percentage of .383. The team closes the season at home against UConn. East Carolina (13-16, 6-10) opened its first season in the AAC with a 1-6 mark but has won five of its past nine. The Pirates won at Central Florida 71-66 on Saturday. Terry Whisnant’s 3-pointer with 1:06 left gave East Carolina the lead for good, snapping the Pirates’ 15-game road losing streak. ECU shot 63 percent in the second half. The school is a solid 11-4 at home, including wins over Cincinnati and Memphis.

This is Temple’s first-ever trip to ECU. The schools played in Philly on Feb. 14 and the Owls won 66-53 thanks to a 34-18 halftime advantage that East Carolina could never trim under 11. Will Cummings was 7-for-7 for 17 points and six assists for the Owls.

Key trends: Temple is 6-1 ATS in its past seven after a win. The Owls are 5-1 ATS in their past six vs. teams with a losing record. ECU is 6-1 ATS in its past seven at home. The Pirates are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 after a win.

Why take the underdog: Temple should win, but ECU covers on Senior Night.

VCU at Davidson (-3)

It’s an Atlantic-10 matchup at 9 p.m. on ESPNU. Davidson is currently in a second place in the conference, a half-game back of Dayton (tied in loss column). The Wildcats are listed among the “First Four Out” for the Big Dance. VCU is 1.5 games back of Dayton and projected as a No. 7 seed for the NCAAs.

VCU (21-8, 11-5) lost one of its best players, and by far its best defensive player, in Briante Weber earlier this season. So I don’t think the Rams are a Final Four threat. They lost their second straight close game Saturday, 59-55 at home to Dayton. Down by two in the last minute, VCU had two chances to tie or take the lead. However, Treveon Graham missed a long 3-pointer. Mo Alie-Cox grabbed the rebound, but couldn’t convert the putback. The Rams scored just three points off turnovers and failed to score any fast-break points for the second consecutive game. That’s shocking with the “Havoc” defense. Graham is now just 22 points away from becoming the third player in VCU history to score 1,800 or more career points. Davidson (21-6, 12-4) beat George Washington 77-66 on Saturday for its seventh straight win. – Jack Gibbs (22) and Brian Sullivan (21) combined for 43 points and the Wildcats were 14-for-28 from long range. Davidson is averaging 11.8 3-pointers per game and shooting 45.3 percent from behind the arc at home this season.

Three of Davidson’s losses this season have come against Top-25 teams. That includes 71-65 at then-No. 20 VCU on Jan. 7. Gibbs, Davidson’s best player, was just 1-for-10 from the field. Graham led the Rams with 15 points and 10 rebounds. Weber was around then and had four steals and six assists. This will be VCU’s first-ever trip to Davidson.

Key trends: VCU is 6-15 in its past 21 after a loss. The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. Davidson is 13-3 ATS in its past 16 at home. It has covered four straight on Thursday.

Why take the favorite: Davidson is one of the nation’s top offensive teams, and that VCU defense looks vulnerable at moment. Plus a win here would be huge for the Wildcats.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEWSLETTER College Basketball Prediction From Jason Sharpe

Take #565 Niagara (+3.5) over Siena (5 p.m., Thursday, March. 5)
The Niagara Purple Eagles are one of the youngest teams in the country, and sometimes it takes a very young team all season long to figure things out. That looks like it’s the case here with this team as they started their season out just 4-21 overall before winning their last four contests coming into this game here. This Niagara team is one that plays all sophomore and freshman right now, and these are usually the type of players who will show the biggest improvements late in a CBB season. Take Niagara plus the points here in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NEWSLETTER NBA Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take #504 Portland over Dallas (10:30 p.m., Thursday, March 5)
The Blazers are just a better team at the current time. Dallas has gotten absolutely blown out in their last two road teams, both versus good teams. The Mavs are tough on the home, but just don’t have the moxy to go on the road and win in a tough environment, right now at least. This is the first game of a tough road trip for the Mavs as they have to go to Portland and Golden State, before finishing in L.A. versus the Lakers. Look for the road trip to get started on the wrong foot as the Blazers get the easy W. The Blazers are a tough matchup for the Mavs as their bigs are energetic and nimble. The also have the athleticism to chase Dirk around, limiting his open looks, and to slow down the Mavs wing players. Portland will be just too much tonight in front of their loud and rowdy home crowd.