dave malinsky 4*
GAME: Maryland @ California Mar 19, 2009 2:55PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Maryland
Offered at: 2 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #725 MARYLAND over CALIFORNIA
2:55 Eastern
We wanted to wait this one out until the market move to Cal reached its peak, and now that +2 has become available across the board there is not hesitation to back the better team in this value range, and also one that matches up quite well.
Not much was expected from Maryland this season because of an uninspiring front-court, and when the Terrapins were rocked 108-91 at North Carolina on February 3rd it appeared that they had reached rock-bottom, and might not make any kind of post-season tourney at all. But as great coaches do Gary Williams reached back at that darkest moment. In the locker room of the Dean Smith Center he put in writing that the Terrapins would beat then Tar Heels in their rematch at College Park, and asked for any players that also believed to sign their names. It worked. As part of a late-season surge Maryland beat Carolina 88-85 at home in overtime, and the team is playing with an entirely different confidence level now.
There were also some personnel adjustments, with Sean Mosley entering the starting lineup at guard and Eric Hayes coming off the bench, and it is a move that worked for both players. Mosley adds a defensive and rebounding presence at the position, while a pure scorer like Hayes can often be at his best coming off the bench – he broke his former career high of 19 points twice in last weekend’s A.C.C. tourney, scoring 21 points against N. C. State and 20 against Duke (from Williams - "I think Eric Hayes -- maybe because of his background as being the son of a coach -- he gets a chance to watch for a couple minutes. He's able to see some things that help him when he gets in. And he knows that in the second half he's going to be in there most of the time.")
The insertion of Mosley may not have mattered more in any game than it will in this one. It is the size and defensive ability of the Maryland guards that keys the matchup, with Mosley’s 6-4, and the 6-6 of Greivis Vasquez, making it tough on Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher to find their usual open looks on the perimeter, and we will also see the 6-2 Adrian Bowie on 5-10 Randle as well. The Cal guards combined to knocked down 128 triples this season, while averaging 33.0 points per game, and if they are negated the rest of the arsenal is nothing special at all, particularly a defense that allowed 44 percent shooting, and only generated 401 turnovers in 32 games. This is a team that lacks post-season experience (two NIT games in three years, and a quick bow-out in the Pac 10 tourney last week); and does not merit the favorite’s role in this setting.
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