Thursday 3/12/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB AAC Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 12-15
All games played at XL Center - Hartford, CT

TECH NOTES:
Teams off a DD SU win are 5-0 ATS
Teams are 4-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
Teams are 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU win w/ revenge

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SMU, TULSA, TEMPLE, CONNECTICUT

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The 2nd year of this newbie conference tournament finds former one-year lessee Louisville now calling the ACC home. Stepping in to fill their shoes is the Larry Brown-led SMU Mustangs, one of only two teams in the country to currently rank in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive field goal percentage (Utah the other). Last year’s NIT runner-up, the Ponies rebounded from a sluggish 2-3 start to lead the charge on this conference. They’ll need to overcome a putrid 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS recent conference tourney mark, including 9 straight losses... Frank Haith is one of three new coaches in the loop this season, leaving Missouri for TULSA in a surprise move. The Hurricane returned eight rotation players from last year’s NCAA tournament team and were tied atop the conference with SMU prior to Sunday's loss. Haith’s sparkling 15-5 ATS record in conference tourney games jumps off the page, as does his 17-4-1 ATS career mark as a favorite in games against opponents off a double-digit win.

Last season TEMPLE became the first team in school history to lose 20 or more games in a single season. As a result, the Owls missed out on the NCAA tournament for only the 2nd time in Dunphy’s 8-year tenure with Temple. An influx of transfers, coupled with a tenacious brand of defense, has the Owls in prime contention to snap three straight one-and-outs in this tourney and head back to the dance floor... And then there is CONNECTICUT, last year’s NCAA tournament champs. Kevin Ollie’s squad is certainly nowhere near last year’s level but you simply can’t ignore the Huskies’ postseason pedigree: 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in conference tourney play since 2011. Ollie’s 33-2 SU mark against sub .600 foes figures to find them advancing deep into this event. THE SLEEPER: CINCINNATI
20-win Bearcats bowed out as the top seed in this event to UConn last season and loom as a legitimate threat. An impressive 5-1 SUATS mark in games this season versus .750 or greater opponents confirms that notion.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY AGAINST ANY TEAM OFF A DOUBLE-DIGIT WIN
In analyzing results from this fledgling conference tournament last season, it’s apparent that no one team stands heads and shoulders above another. A shocking 0-5 SUATS mark by teams performing in AAC tourney games off a double-digit victory is proof of that judgment.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB A-10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at Barclays Center - Brooklyn, NY

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-2 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS losses
-- Favorites w/3+ days of rest are 13-3 ATS off BB SU losses
-- DD favorites are 2-5 ATS off a DD ATS win
-- Dogs are 14-30-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge
-- Dogs are 19-41-1 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #1 seeds are 0-4 ATS as dogs
-- #2 seeds are 11-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #4 seeds are 15-3 ATS L18 as favorites
-- #5 seeds are 0-6 ATS as dogs off SUATS loss
-- #7 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-0 ATS off DD SU loss and 6-1 dogs vs opp off SUATS loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: VCU, DAVIDSON, DAYTON, RHODE ISLAND

THE WAY WE SEE IT: This revamped conference has delivered 11 teams to the Big Dance the past two seasons, including six last year, with Dayton making it to the Elite Eight. Last year’s champ, VCU, was a preseason Top 20 squad, only to underachieve this campaign. The Rams also own spotty performances in conference tourney play, most notably a 1-8 ATS mark as double-digit chalk. In addition, Shaka Smart’s crew showed a propensity to play down to the level of opposition this season, going just 6-10 ATS versus sub .666 opponents. Still, the Rams are very dangerous and if they play anywhere to their preseason potential, they could be cutting down the nets at the Barclays Center.

Newcomer DAVIDSON arrived as a perennial power from the Southern Conference and did not disappoint. The Wildcats have appeared in 12 NCAA (missed last year) and 6 NIT tourneys, while owning 12 conference tournament titles since 1966. Veteran Bob McKillop has been the Davidson head coach for each of the last 26 years. Color this team experienced and dangerous (20-4 ATS this season at press time)... After being bounced by Florida in the Elite Eight, DAYTON played with renewed confidence this season. A 6-2 SUATS mark (at press time) against .500 or greater A-10 foes keeps the Flyers in a positive state of mind. RHODE ISLAND, the 3rd of four 20-win teams in this competitive conference, chewed up and spit out sub .666 foes this season, going 18-2 SU and 11-6 ATS. They stalled, however, with a 2-5 SUATS mark against anything better – all of which figures to earn them a win or two in this tourney.

THE SLEEPER: GEORGE WASHINGTON
The Colonials were pegged as the 2nd best team in this loop by the A-10 media before the first whistle sounded. And they played like it, bolting out to a 16-4 start before unraveling down the stretch. The feeling here is the lure of a 20-win season, coupled with a 16-7 ATS conference tourney record they bring to this party, is about to pay off as a 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record on neutral floors this season raises the bar.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON: NO. 1 SEED IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As competitive as this league is and has been, top seeds have been like annuities when arriving to the championship games. That’s confirmed by our well-oiled machine as it notes No. 1 seeds are 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in title games when facing a No. 2 or lower seed, including 6-0 ATS as favorites of 5 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-15
All games played at United Center - Chicago, IL

TECH NOTES:
-- Teams are 8-1 ATS w/DD SU revenge, dogs 6-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off BB SU wins w/revenge
-- DD dogs off a DD SU loss are 5-2 ATS
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 8-2 ATS w/same-season revenge
-- Teams off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS vs opp off a SU favorite loss
-- #1 seeds are 8-2 ATS S’07 vs #6 seeds or lower opp off SU win
-- #2 seeds are 5-1 ATS off 3 SUATS wins
-- #3 seeds are 2-8 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins and 1-4 ATS off DD ATS win
-- #5 seeds are 7-0 ATS off a SU dog win
-- #7 seeds are 5-0 ATS w/revenge, 0-7 ATS off SU loss vs opp w/revenge
-- #10 seeds are 6-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 7-1 ATS off BB SU losses and 8-2 ATS off SU loss

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: WISCONSIN, MARYLAND, OHIO STATE, MICHIGAN STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
The NCAA Tournament committee will have its hands full trying to decide which teams to leave home from the powerful Big Ten conference with as many as nine teams in the loop likely to have 20 wins by the time the nets are cut down in this tourney. WISCONSIN is the most likely choice to capture a No. 1 seed, and deservedly so. Only Kentucky and Virginia own fewer losses away from home at press time this season. While 12 of their 16 tourney wins have been by double-digit margins, the Badgers have been anything but money winners in conference play the past two seasons (13-22-2 ATS overall), and last won this title in 2008 – as a No. 1 seed. MARYLAND, slotted into the 10th spot by preseason poll beat writers, was a major overachiever thanks to a dominating 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS mark in games versus greater-than .777 foes this season. But a 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS record against No. 1 seeds in conference tourney games may end up biting the Turtles in the end.

Ranked 15th in the preseason polls, OHIO STATE disappointed despite an offense that ranked in the Top 10 in offensive field goal percentage. A 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS mark in games away from Columbus does not bode well. However, an 18-4 SU record in this event since 2007, with 6 title game appearances, could prove to be the perfect placebo needed. And speaking of strong Big Ten tourney history, last year’s champ MICHIGAN STATE brings a sparkling 22-12 SU record into this event since 1999. And when it comes to title games, Tom Izzo’s troops are a spotless 4-0 SUATS in Big Ten championship games. Can’t fade that.

THE SLEEPER: IOWA
The Hawkeyes earned their stripes as a visiting team this season with an 8-3 SU and 7-3 ATS record. They were also outstanding in games versus sub .850 opposition, going 18-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS. All of which leads us to Iowa’s 19-8 ATS mark in this tourney, including 12-1 ATS off back-to-back wins. Under most circumstances, a resumé like that would earn most teams Final Four status in events like this.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

PLAY ON MICHIGAN STATE WITH REVENGE
Once again we’ll take a leap of faith with Tom Izzo – not all that hard, actually – and back them with revenge in this affair. It would serve you well to note that the Spartans are 29-10 SU and 28-8-1 ATS with same-season conference revenge since 2000 – including 22-0 SU and 19-2-1 ATS when favored by 4 or more points – and 6-0 ATS in this tourney. Enough said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence

March 11-14
All games played at Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO

TECH NOTES:
-- Favorites off BB SU losses are 6-13 ATS
-- Teams who are 3-0 SUATS L3 are 1-11 ATS with revenge and 2-12 ATS as dogs
-- Teams are 0-9 ATS w/DD SU revenge and 0-8 ATS w/ same season revenge
-- Dogs off BB SU wins are 2-9 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss
-- #1 seeds are 0-8 ATS w/3+ rest off SUATS win, 0-5 ATS off DD ATS win w/ 3+ rest and 1-6 ATS w/3+ rest vs opp off DD SU win
-- #2 seeds are 4-0 ATS w/same-season revenge, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU & BB SUATS wins
-- #5 seeds are 5-1 ATS w/ same season double-revenge, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win, 0-6 ATS L6 vs opp off SUATS win and 0-5 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #6 seeds are 1-6 ATS w/revenge vs opp off SUATS win
-- #8 seeds are 6-0 ATS as DD dogs and 10-1 ATS vs an opp off SU win

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: KANSAS, BAYLOR, OKLAHOMA, IOWA STATE

THE WAY WE SEE IT:
With each team in the conference having played one another, and only two teams owning a losing record, this is arguably the most talented loop in the land. They are, however, a far cry from the Big 12 that sported three 30-game winners – for only the 2nd time in NCAA history – two seasons ago. Ten consecutive regular season championships makes KANSAS the overwhelming choice in this event. That and the fact they were the only team in the Big 12 with the possibility of finishing the season with a winning record on the conference road (check result at Oklahoma Saturday, 3/7). A loss to Iowa State in the semi’s last year prevented the Jayhawks from reaching the championship game for the 10th time since 1997. FYI: when they do arrive, they perform like Dorothy and her friends in Emerald City, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last ten title games…

BAYLOR opened (11-1 SU) and closed (5-1 ATS) the season on a strong foot, thus landing them the 2nd slot in our projected Final Four. A 13-2 SU and 6-3 ATS log this season against .666 or less opponents should get them to the semi’s and from there, who knows? What we do know is the Bears lost to Iowa State in the title game last season and will be anxious to make another appearance.

OKLAHOMA hit a bit of a spread wall coming down the stretch of the regular season (0-5 ATS at press time), and have failed miserably of late in this tourney (3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS last 13 games), but Sooners head coach Lon Kruger is conference tournament tested: 19-8 SU and 17-10 ATS versus sub .770 foes. Given the fact his troops are the 10th ranked team in the land in defensive field goal percentage, we’ll likely ‘buy’ rather than ‘sell’ the Sooners this go-round. IOWA STATE returns as the defending champion knowing they were 1-9 SU in their previous ten games in this event prior to pulling off last year’s surprise. Carrying the weight of that bulls-eye may be asking too much, especially since the last time they managed to capture this tourney, they were bounced in the NCAA first round as 11.5-point favorites. Yikes.

THE SLEEPER: TEXAS
This former Top 10 squad was bit by the injury bug and lost its way as the season progressed. Yet they still managed to finish in the Top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rebound margin (along with Kentucky and Virginia), the two staples when it comes to defining quality teams. Landing a 20th win in this tourney would go a long way toward an invite to the Big Dance.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET:

WEST VIRGINIA IN GAME ONE
At first glance this might look hard to swallow, given the Mountaineers’ one-game-and-out mark each of the past four Big 12 tourneys. Remember, though, none of those four squads owned a win percentage of greater than .666. In conference tourney games with greater-than .666 teams, Bob Huggins is 30-8 SU, including 14-2 SU in tourney openers. This year’s team can play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Looking for Leaders
By Jim Feist

College Basketball’s Diminishing Edge: Senior Leadership

It's time! Time for college basketball teams to begin conference tourney play, also known as separating the contenders from the pretenders. It's important to understand and closely examine the schedule of college hoop teams. Some teams start off the season playing a bunch of cream puffs, while others face a mixture of good and bad teams.

What has taken shape the last few months, though, is largely conference play. Since conferences are purposely made up of schools with a similar level of talent, you need to pay attention to how teams start the season and what their schedule was like. Some schools want to get a few cheap victories over smaller schools and fatten up their won/lost record early in the season, while others want to test their teams early to toughen them up for conference play

Now it's time for conference tournament play, essentially the THIRD season of college basketball. The first season was November and December, non-conference games, plus coaches trying to figure out their personnel and strengths and weaknesses. The second season has been conference play the last two months, and now it's tourney time. This is where the weak links drop off, while the better and more motivated teams advance.

So this time of the season, is it important to have senior leadership? Kentucky dazzled everyone with their kids three years ago winning the title and Anthony Davis was the 4th freshman to win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award. However, that is not the norm, either. Remember that their only senior, Darius Miller, was 6th man off the bench and was the second leading scorer in the Final Four win over Louisville with 13 points.

Last year No. 7 seeded UConn was a surprise national champ. Think they had an abundance of experienced leadership? Of the starting five, Shabazz Napier dazzled, along with fellow senior Niels Giffey, plus DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright were juniors. That experienced team didn’t miss a free throw in the title victory againhst Kentucky, 60-54, while the young Wildcats went 13-of-24 (54% from the line).

Two years ago Louisville won it all with one senior and two juniors in the starting lineup. The previous five years before the Kentucky kids won it, college basketball's champions, UConn, Duke, Kansas, Florida and North Carolina, had a combined 20 of 25 starters who were juniors or seniors. In 2011 UConn had a pair of juniors, including star Kemba Walker, while the team they beat, Butler, was a senior-laden squad.

Four years ago, Duke started 3 seniors and 2 juniors in the title game against Butler. In 2009 North Carolina had three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup when they whipped Michigan State for the title, 89-72. Clearly, having that kind of an edge in experience can be an important factor, though it isn't everything, especially with more college athletes leaving earlier for the pros.

The two years prior to those teams, Florida and North Carolina had starting fives with no seniors. 11 years ago, Syracuse's Jim Boeheim combined with a gifted group of freshmen and sophomores to win the NCAA title. The Orangemen upset Kansas in a thrilling finale, 81-78, with a starting five of two freshmen (F Carmelo Anthony, G Billy Edelin), two sophomores (C Craig Forth, F Hakim Warrick) and only one senior (G Keith Duany). The kids played like veterans for the Orangemen and note that Syracuse was 9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS on the road. No nerves away from home for the kids, straight up and against the number!

In the final three tournament games they were a +3, +3 and +5 dog to Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas and won them all straight up (+200 in the title game on the money-line). We are in an era with fewer seniors in college hoops, but let's not downplay the value of veteran leadership, as the Blue Devils showcased last season.

The 2006 Florida team had four junior starters who had been together for a while, then came back the next year and repeated. North Carolina in 2005 had three rock solid juniors in Ray Felton, Sean May and Rashard McCants. In 2004, UConn had senior guard Taliek Brown and star junior center Emeka Okafur.

If you're looking for a team that might win it all, history suggests talent, depth, good coaching and experienced leadership are four key ingredients for success in March. So, yes, generally speaking, junior and senior leadership are important assets to have during conference tournament play and the upcoming Big Dance.

NCAA Champions

2014 UConn (2 seniors, 2 juniors)
2013 Louisville (1 senior, 2 juniors)
2012 Kentucky (none)
2011 UConn (2 juniors)
2010 Duke (4 senior starters, 1 junior)
2009 North Carolina (3 senior starters, 2 juniors)
2008 Kansas (2 junior starters, 2 seniors)
2007 Florida (4 junior starters, 1 senior)
2006 Florida (4 junior starters)
2005 North Carolina (3 junior starters, Felton, McCants, May)
2004 UConn (1 key senior, Taliek Brown, junior Emeka Okafur)
2003 Syracuse (Starters: 2 frosh, 2 soph, 1 senior)
2002 Maryland (2 key seniors, Lonnie Baxter, Juan Dixon)
2001 Duke (1 key senior, Shane Battier)
2000 Michigan State (Starters: 3 seniors, 2 juniors)
1999 Connecticut (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1998 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 3 juniors)
1997 Arizona (Starters: 3 juniors)
1996 Kentucky (Starters: 2 seniors, 2 juniors)
1995 UCLA (Starters: 3 seniors)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Four handicapping tips for betting NCAAB conference tournaments
By DOC'S SPORTS

The best betting appetizers to the annual feast known as the NCAA tournament are the various conference tournaments that take place over this week.

These serve as a warmup for the top teams in country, as they jockey for better seeding in the Big Dance. However, for a good number of teams, the conference tournaments represent one final chance to earn a place in the 68-team field by snagging an automatic bid that comes with winning it all.

Many of the traditional handicapping practices still apply. However, given the sudden-death nature of this format, there are a few additional betting tips to take into consideration when wagering on conference tournament action:

Good programs vs. Bad teams

By now we have a clear picture of every team in the nation and it becomes painfully obvious which ones are good and which one are bad.

While there are exceptions to every rule, don’t start thinking that teams such as Florida at 15-16 (10-19-1 ATS) or Michigan at 15-15 (12-16 ATS) are going to suddenly find their groove and go on a run.

Try and stay away from higher-profile schools that have good programs but are strapped with a bad team this year.

Season series

A few of the conference tournament matchups will mark the third time that two teams have faced each other this year.

Do your homework and try an uncover situations where a talented team has already lost twice to the team they are facing in the next round. Many times, you will find a couple key factors that contributed to the regular season sweep.

A good example would be if Butler meets Georgetown in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. The Hoyas won both encounters with the Bulldogs this season by a combined eight points. Georgetown is the No. 2 seed in the tournament but beating Butler a third time – especially with the Bulldogs playing so well right now – may be asking too much.

Ride the trends

While teams will be judged on their entire body of work when it comes to earning a spot in the NCAA tournament, it’s the programs that are hot ATS right now that you want to ride into their conference tournament.

The Davidson Wildcats rolled into the postseason on a nine-game SU and ATS streak in the Atlantic 10, grabbing the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. They get a double-bye and play the winner of La Salle vs. UMass - winning and covering in each of the meetings with those two programs in the regular season.

The Maryland Terrapins have won seven in a row and have covered in five of those contests, including a victory over Wisconsin as a 6-point home underdog.

Great players vs. Good teams

Every March there seems to be an example of what a great, pro-caliber player can mean to his team.

Connecticut rode Kemba Walker all the way to a national title in 2011 and along the way made some serious money for anyone who went along for the ride, with a 9-1 ATS record in Big East and NCAA Tournament play.

Anthony Davis was the backbone of Kentucky’s title run the following year, leading the Wildcats to a 4-1 ATS run in the final five rounds of the tournament before becoming the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Duke's Jahlil Okafor, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell, Texas' Myles Turner, and Arkansas' Bobby Portis all find their names high on the NBA mock draft boards.

Teams with a great individual superstar tend to trump good teams with no true standouts. These prime-time-players all have dreams of being the next Kemba Walker and leading their team to a national title. But, they also realize they are auditioning for the NBA and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, which can be an even bigger source of motivation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

‘Overs’ cashing when Providence-St. John’s clash
Justin Hartling

Heading into their Big East tournament clash, Providence and St. John’s have gone over in their past five contests.

Those five games, dating back to Jan. 16, 2014, have seen the Friars average 75 points and the Red Storm tally 80.4 ppg. With the teams averaging a combined 155.4 ppg, they have faced an average spread of 134.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coach Huggins doubts Staten plays Thursday
by Justin Hartling

West Virginia will enter the Big 12 tournament against Baylor Thursday and will likely be without Juwan Staten. The senior guard is dealing with a knee injury that has been affecting him since February.

“[Staten] fully intends on playing. I doubt he plays tomorrow,” WVU coach Bob Huggins said per Brian Hamilton.

Staten is one of just two Mountaineer players to be averaging over 10 points per game, notching 14.5 points per contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAB small conferences
By Doc Sports

Some of the best betting value in college basketball is hiding beyond the power conferences. Each week Doc’s Sports takes a look at the little programs that could help you make big cash.

Team to watch: Yale Bulldogs (22-9 SU, 14-7-1 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Harvard Saturday

First place in the Ivy League and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament will be on the line when Yale plays Harvard (9-13 ATS) in a one-game tiebreaker at The Palestra in Philadelphia Saturday.

Justin Sears, a 6-foot-8 junior forward, is a big reason why Yale is in fine form and came within seconds of already clinching the league title (the Bulldogs lost at Dartmouth 59-58 on a buzzer-beater last weekend). Sears (14.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.5 bpg) was named Ivy League Player of the Week earlier this month thanks in part to a 28-point, 12-rebound performance against Princeton.

“You get your acceptance letter from Yale and one of the first things they tell you is, ‘We hate Harvard,’” Sears reflected. “Everyone gets into it. The number one most important thing at the end of the day is, ‘Did you beat Harvard?’”

The Bulldogs just beat Harvard 62-52 last Friday despite being 10-point road underdogs.

Team to beware: VCU Rams (22-9 SU, 11-19 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Fordham/George Mason Thursday (A-10 Tournament)

A poorly-timed, late-season slump caused VCU to plunge from first place in the Atlantic 10 to fifth—and out of the double-byes that went to the conference’s Top 4 teams.

The Rams, who have lost three of their last four (0-4 ATS) and five of their last nine (2-7 ATS), can chalk up their recent struggles to complete failure in close games. Four of their last five setbacks have come by five points or fewer and two required overtime. By contrast, VCU’s four most recent wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

Shaka Smart’s team simply has not been the same since Briante Weber suffered a torn ACL in a loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. Weber (8.1 ppg) was a senior leader and the instigator of VCU’s trademark “havoc” press defense. He averaged 3.9 steals per game.

The Rams are 11-19 ATS overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Big 14 tournament, Chicago
Indiana is suprisingly bad 2-9 in last 11 Big 14 tourney games; going 2-6 in its first game last eight years; Hoosiers (-2.5) lost 72-65 in Evanston Feb 25, giving up 1.29 ppp. Indiana lost despite going 12-31 on the arc. Northwestern was 8-20 on arc, shot 58.6% inside arc. Wildcats are 5-2 in last seven games, after season Big 14 play 1-10- they're 7-4 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog. Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games, 1-4 in last five games as a favorite- they're squarely on NCAA bubble.

ACC tournament, Greensboro
Louisville won AAC tourney LY, two Big East tourneys befoe that, but Pitino was in Chicago last night watching his son's team play, not exactly best way to prepare for North Carolina, which split pair with Louisville this season, beating Cards 72-71 at home Jan 10 (trailed by 13 with 8:43 left), losing 78-68 in OT Jan 31 (led by 18 early in 2nd half). Tar Heels are 14-7 in ACC tourney last nine years, 8-2 in first round. UNC's win yesterday was stress-free, but Paige still played 36:00.

NC State has gone WWL in ACC tourney in all three years Gottfried has been its coach; Wolfpack won six of last seven games overall, winning by 11 yesterday in game they never trailed, but three starters still played 34:00+. State upset Duke 87-75 at home Jan 11, making 10-16 from arc. Duke hasn't won this tourney since '11, but they're 10-2 in first game of tourney last 12 years; Blue Devils won last 11 games; they allowed 84.7 ppg in their three losses (State-Miami-Notre Dame).

Notre Dame shot 66.7% inside arc, beat Miami 75-70 at home Jan 17, in game Irish trailed by 12 with 15:06 left. ND won its first tourney game in six of last seven years, losing 81-69 to Wake LY in its first ACC tourney. Miami pulled away late from Va Tech yesterday, despite going just 4-8 on foul line, 3-15 on arc. Hurricanes won six of last eight games, losing to Louisville/UNC; they're 2-5 in second ACC tourney game of year. Irish won five of last six games.

Big East tournament, NYC
St John's beat Providence twice this season, 83-70 (+3) Jan 14, 75-66 (-3) at home Jan 31 Red Storm won seven of last nine games; their last three losses are all by 22+ points. Johnnies are 0-3 in this tourney last three years, despite playing on its home court; they're 2-7 in this event since '04. Obekpa missed last game, is ?? here. Friars won this tourney LY, are 4-2 in last six games, but 2-4 in last six road games. St John's is in top 10 in country in experience, which is supposed to matter in March.

Home side won both Butler-Xavier games this season; Bulldogs won first meeting 88-76 (-3) Jan 10, then lost 73-56 (+4) in Cincinnati Feb 21, as Butler shot just 35.1% in game they trailed by 29 with 5:47 left. Xavier won its first tourney game 11 of last 13 years; Butler is 8-3 in conference tourneys last five years, winning first game eight of last nine years (lost 51-50 LY). Xavier split its last six games overall, winning three of its last four on road. Butler is 9-3 in last 12 games, 4-1 in last five on road.

Big X tournament, Kansas City
Baylor beat West Virginia easily twice this season, 87-66 on road Feb 7 (led 30-9 early), then 78-66 in Waco three weeks later; Bears rebounded 36%/39% of its missed shots in those games-- WV allowed foes to grab only 31% of missed shots this season. Baylor won first tourney game in four of last six years, losing in finals three times; they've won five of last six games overall. Mountaineers are 0-4 in conference tourneys since they won 2010 Big East tournament, with three losses by 6 or less points.

Texas won last night, but lost its second tourney game last three years, by 14-17-17 points; Longhorns could erase bubble doubt with win here; they lost to Iowa State twice this season, 89-86 (+5) in Ames Jan 26 (trailed by 21 with 8:06 to go), 85-77 (-2) at home Feb 21. Texas beat Texas Tech by 12 in first round, playing only two guys more than 24:00. Cyclones won this tournament LY, after being 1-8 previosu eight years in this event. Iowa State won five of last seven games overall.

Oklahoma beat rival Oklahoma State twice this season, 82-65 (-6.5) Jan 17 at home, 64-56 (+1.5) in Stillwater two weeks later. Sooners won nine of last 11 games, but is 0-6 vs spread in last six games and lost two of last three on road; they've lost six of last seven Big X tourney tilts, going 0-3 last three tourneys. Cowboys won their first tournament game the last 11 years. State lost six of last six games since winning at Baylor; now they're on bubble, might need this win to get off it.

SEC tournament, Nashville
Vanderbilt won its last five games and eight of last ten, after starting SEC play 1-7. Commodores won 73-65 in Knoxville Feb 26 (made 13-25 on arc in game they trailed by 11 at half) after losing 76-73 in OT at home to Vols Feb 11 (led by 4 with 0:15 left). Tennessee lost six of last seven, 10 of last 13 games after starting out 4-1 in league play. Vandy won first tourney game four of last five years, losing by 14 LY; Tennessee won first SEC tourney game six of last seven years.

Pac-12 tourney, MGM Las Vegas
Stanford outscored Washington 7-0 over final 3:25 last nite, got 3-pointer with 0:07 left to nip Huskies 71-69 in nightcap, in game where Huskies made 13-20 from arc and still lost. Cardinal snapped 3-game skid, need a win here to get on bubble vs Utah team that beat them 75-59 (-11) Feb 12 in SLC- Utes shot 56% inside arc. Utah lost three of last five games after starting Pac-12 play 11-2; they're 8-4 in first conference tourney tilt last 12 years. Utes loss at Washington Saturday is a red flag.

Mountain West tourney, Las Vegas
UNLV is down to seven scholarship players; best wing player Vaughn is out; Rebels used seven kids in pulling away from Nevada yesterday, six of the seven played 27+ minutes. San Diego State beat Rebels twice this year, 53-47 (-10.5) at home Jan 17, then 60-58 (-4.5) here eight days ago in a fierce struggle. Rebels haven't won this tournament since '08; in last five tournaments, they won first game all five times, then went 2-3 in second game. Aztecs didn't play yesterday, a big advantage here.

MAC tournament, Cleveland
Akron won first two tourney games after coming into tournament on 1-6 skid; Zips are 20-5 in this event since '07, winning it in '09/'11/'13, last three odd-numbered years. Akron beat Kent 61-52 (-6.5) at home Feb 10, then lost 79-77 (+3) at Kent six nights ago, when Zips made 14-29 on arc but still lost. Flashes are 5-6 in MAC tourney since last winning it in '08; they lost three of last four games but haven't played since Friday, while Zips had to win Monday/Wednesday just to get here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'ACC Quarterfinals'

Virginia winning the ACC regular-season championship after another banner year posting a 28-2 overall record with a 16-2 ledger in conference play, it's not too difficult making a case they move to the next round. Not the most efficient offensively netting 65.5 points/game but Cavaliers strength comes at the defensive end with its top-ranked scoring defense (50.3 PPG) and third-ranked field-goal defense (35.8%). It would be a shock to see Cavaliers get upended by Seminoles. However, with Cavaliers second best scorer Justin Anderson (13.4) out due to undergoing an appendectomy it wouldn't be a stretch to see Seminoles keep this one within the point-spread. With Wednesday's win/cover in round-two the Noles carry into the contest a red hot 12-2 mark against the betting line including an 8-1 ATS streak the past nine on the hardwood. On the other side, Cavaliers did not lived up to betting expectations within the conference this year (8-9-1 ATS) and ended the campaign on a 2-6-1 slide against the number. One final nugget, Cavaliers are on a 0-4-1 ATS skid laying double digits.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

-- Stanford 71, Washington 69-- Huskies didn't score in last 3:25 of game.

-- USC 67, Arizona State 64-- ASU led by 14 with 8:20 left.

-- TCU 67, K-State 65-- Horned Frogs' first-ever win in Big X tournament.

-- FIU 57, Tex-San Antonio 54-- Kid banked in a 45-footer at buzzer for the win.

-- Air Force 68, New Mexico 61-- Lobos lost nine of their last ten games.

-- Penn State 68, Nebraska 65-- Cornhuskers lost their last nine games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SEC Tournament Round 2: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Florida Gators (-3.5)

A season ago, Florida didn’t lose an SEC game in cruising through the regular season and conference tournament en route to the Final Four. Now, though, the eighth-seeded Gators are staring at the prospect of the program’s first losing season since 1997-98 – back in coach Billy Donovan’s second year in Gainesville – as they prepare to for Thursday’s second-round SEC Tournament contest against ninth-seeded Alabama in Nashville. The winner receives a quarterfinal date with top-ranked and unbeaten Kentucky on Friday.

“I don’t think there is a different agenda from last year’s team,” Donovan said at his weekly news conference Monday. “We are going in there to play against Alabama and try to see if we can move on and advance and play again on Friday. In order for us to do that, we will have to grow and get better as a group.” Florida won two of three to close out the regular season – falling only to Kentucky last Saturday in Lexington – while Alabama avoided a three-game skid by squeaking out a 61-60 victory at Texas A&M on Saturday.

TRENDS:

*Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 8-3 in Crimson Tide last 11 neutral site games.
*Over is 13-3 in Gators last 16 games following a ATS loss.
*Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-4.5)

Barring an unlikely four-day title run, Vanderbilt and Tennessee essentially will be looking to pad their NIT resumes Thursday when they square off for the third time this season in a second-round SEC tournament contest in Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena. The seventh-seeded Commodores, who closed the regular season with five straight wins and eight victories in their last 10 outings, appear to be in decent shape for an NIT bid at 19-12, but coach Kevin Stallings isn’t taking anything for granted given the unpredictable nature of March. “I feel like we’ve made a pretty good case with what we’ve done lately, but it’s just relative to what else is out there,” Stallings told the Nashville Tennessean earlier this week. “(An NIT bid) would be extremely valuable, especially going forward for what this young group will experience.”

At 15-15, meanwhile, the 10th-seeded Volunteers need a win to remain a part of the NIT discussion, but they staggered to the finish in the regular season, losing six of their last seven games. Tennessee, though, split the regular-season series with its in-state rival, with the Volunteers and Commodores each winning on the other’s home floor. “I think our team would be excited to play, regardless of who the opponent was,” Tennessee coach Donnie Tyndall said at his weekly Monday media luncheon. “I think certainly we all understand that’s a huge game to both fan bases and both teams, so it will add a little bit to it. I don’t think you hide from that or try to sugar coat that in any way.”

TRENDS:

*Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Under is 16-5 in Volunteers last 21 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
*Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers (OFF)

Texas A&M may need to make some noise in the SEC tournament in order to impress the selection committee and reach the NCAAs. That quest begins Thursday in Nashville, Tenn., where the fifth-seeded Aggies take on 13th-seeded Auburn in the second round. Texas A&M did not help its cause with a lackluster finish to the regular season, dropping its last two games and three of its final four to lose the coveted double-bye.

The Tigers lost their final six games of the regular season before knocking off Mississippi State 74-68 in Wednesday’s first round. K.C. Ross-Miller scored 21 points, KT Harrell had 19 and Alex Thompson registered a career-high 16 to give Auburn its first win in the tournament since 2009. The winner advances to take on No. 4 seed LSU on Friday in a game that likely leads to a semifinal matchup with top-ranked and unbeaten Kentucky.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in Auburn’s last eight games following an ATS win.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (OFF)

The last time Ole Miss played in the SEC tournament in Nashville in 2013, it put together a magical run that continued into the NCAA Tournament. The sixth-seeded Rebels hit the floor at Bridgestone Arena once again Thursday, taking on No. 11 seed South Carolina in a second-round matchup, this time with its status for the Big Dance up in the air. Andy Kennedy’s team is on the tournament bubble after dropping three of its last four games, including an 86-77 home loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday.

“We’ve got a veteran group that’s been in these conversations several times,” Kennedy told reporters Wednesday. “My hope is that their focus is on what they can control, and that’s playing well on Thursday night.” While the Rebels had a lackluster finish to their regular season, the Gamecocks seemed to right their ship down the stretch and posted a 63-54 victory over Missouri in Wednesday’s first round. The winner advances to take on No. 3 seed Georgia on Friday in the quarterfinals.

TRENDS:

* South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* The underdog 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Under is 8-1 in South Carolina’s last nine neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Mississippi’s last five neutral site games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Tournament Quarterfinals: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-11)

Fourth-ranked Virginia begins its quest for a second straight ACC tournament title when it takes on ninth-seeded Florida State in the quarterfinals Thursday at Greensboro, N.C. The top-seeded Cavaliers saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end with a 59-57 loss at Louisville in the finale of the regular season for only its second defeat in league play. Florida State, which lost 51-41 at Virginia last month, held off a late rally to edge Clemson 76-73 in Wednesday’s second round.

Virginia, the top team in the nation in scoring defense (50.3), must find a way to contain freshman guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes after his 30-point performance for the Seminoles on Wednesday. The Cavaliers will likely be without second-leading scorer Justin Anderson, who is recovering from an appendectomy after suffering a fractured finger on Feb. 7. Virginia is 7-1 since Anderson went down, led by first team All-ACC pick Malcolm Brogdon.

TRENDS:

*Seminoles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. Atlantic Coast.
*Under is 13-3 in Cavaliers last 16 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
*Under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings.



North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5)

No. 13 Louisville begins its maiden voyage in the ACC tournament when it takes on 19th-ranked North Carolina on Thursday in the quarterfinals at Greensboro, N.C. The fourth-seeded Cardinals have won four of their last five games, including a 59-57 victory over conference regular-season champion Virginia last Saturday at home. Fifth seed North Carolina has struggled down the stretch with six losses in its last 10 games, but dispatched Boston College 81-63 in the second round Wednesday.

The Tar Heels may not have 6-9, 280-pound forward Kennedy Meeks, who missed Wednesday’s game with an illness, to go against Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell inside. Harrell, who is 6-8 and 240 pounds, has 12 doubles-doubles and scored 22 to go along with 15 rebounds as Louisville beat the Tar Heels 78-68 in overtime on Jan. 31 to gain a split of two meetings. Forward Brice Johnson and point guard Marcus Paige led the way with 17 points apiece for North Carolina on Wednesday.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.



N.C. State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils (OFF)

March is the time when elite teams cement their legacy by winning close games in pressure-packed situations. Second-ranked Duke begins its quest for spring greatness in Thursday’s ACC tournament quarterfinals against North Carolina State, aiming for its 12th victory in a row. Freshman Jahlil Okafor comes into his first postseason contest after posting 11 20-point efforts and 11 double-doubles, and the Blue Devils have won seven games during their streak by 10 points or fewer.

The Wolfpack are one of three teams (Miami and Notre Dame) to knock off the Blue Devils this season, ending Duke’s season-opening 14-game winning streak with an 87-75 home victory Jan. 11. Anthony Barber started N.C. State’s postseason with a bang in Wednesday’s 81-70 victory over Pittsburgh, scoring 21 of his career-best 34 points in the first half. N.C. State shot 63.6 percent from the field in the second half against Pittsburgh, and hit 55 percent of its shots in the upset of Duke.

TRENDS:

* Over is 16-4-1 in the last 21 games.
* N.C. State is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games overall.
* Duke is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 9-3 in Duke’s last 12 neutral site games.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (OFF)

Notre Dame finished the regular season with 26 victories, the program’s highest total in more than a century, but the Fighting Irish know what they accomplish starting in Thursday’s ACC quarterfinals against Miami (Fla.) will determine the success of their campaign. A victory for the third-seeded and ninth-ranked Fighting Irish would match the 2010-11 team for second-most in program history (33 in 1908-09). Senior guard Jerian Grant leads the ACC in assists (6.7) while averaging 16.8 points per game.

The sixth-seed Hurricanes have won three in a row and four of their past five, and nearly knocked off the Fighting Irish before blowing a 12-point second-half lead in losing 75-70 at Notre Dame on Jan. 17. Sheldon McClellan scored 16 points in Wednesday’s 59-49 victory over Virginia Tech, and has reached double figures in nine of his past 10 games. Miami has lost five games to ranked teams by a combined total of 33 points.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games following a SU win.
* Over is 8-2 in Notre Dame’s last 10 neutral site games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Tournament Quarterfinals: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

California Golden Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats (-17)

California stunned Arizona when the Wildcats were the top-ranked team in the nation last season and the Golden Bears will try to pull a similar upset Thursday when they meet the top-seeded Wildcats in the second round of the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. California won 60-58 on a last-second shot Feb. 1, 2014, ending Arizona’s school-record 21-game winning streak. The Wildcats haven’t shown any signs of a relapse this season, beating the eighth-seeded Golden Bears by 23 and 39 points.

Arizona enters this game riding an eight-game winning streak with its only conference losses coming against Oregon State and Arizona State, and a nonconference defeat to UNLV in Las Vegas. California had lost five of six coming into the tournament but shot 58.5 percent from the floor in an 84-59 win Wednesday against Washington State. David Kravish, who had 14 points and 11 rebounds in the upset against Arizona last season, scored a career-high 25 points with eight rebounds and three blocks in the first-round win.

TRENDS:

*Wildcats are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
*Over is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 overall.
*Under is 17-8-1 in Wildcats last 26 neutral site games.
*Over is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.

USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins (-9, OFF)

After opening the Pac-12 tournament with its biggest win in two seasons under coach Andy Enfield, 12th-seeded USC looks to pull another surprise in Thursday’s quarterfinals against No. 4 UCLA at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. The teams are meeting for the second time in nine days after the Bruins closed the regular season with an 85-74 victory at Pauley Pavilion on March 4. The Trojans are riding high after rallying from a 15-point second-half deficit to upset No. 5 seed Arizona State 67-64 in Wednesday’s first round.

Guard Norman Powell is averaging a team-high 16.3 points for the Bruins, who likely need to win two games in Las Vegas in order to secure an NCAA Tournament berth. UCLA closed the regular season with three straight wins and has won nine of its last 10 against the rival Trojans, who lost 13 of their final 15 regular-season games. “Being last in the Pac-12, teams can’t really afford to lose to us,” Trojans guard Julian Jacobs told the Orange County Register. “We’re aware (UCLA) is on the bubble. We’d love to stop them from the tournament.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* USC is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in UCLA’s last eight games following a SU win.

Oregon Ducks vs. Colorado Buffaloes (OFF)

Colorado closed the regular season with four losses in its final six games, but the Buffaloes are back in their comfort zone at the Pac-12 tournament. The 10th-seeded Buffaloes are 8-2 all-time in the league tournament heading into Thursday’s quarterfinal against No. 2 seed Oregon at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Ducks guard Joseph Young, who was named Pac-12 Player of the Year after averaging a league-high 19.8 points, scored 23 points in a 73-60 victory over Colorado in Eugene on Feb. 18.

The Buffaloes showed why they could be a tournament darkhorse with a strong performance Wednesday, when Askia Booker scored 20 points in a 78-71 victory over No. 7 seed Oregon State. Forward Josh Scott was slowed by back pain early in league play, but the 6-10 junior is averaging 23 points and 11.7 rebounds over his last three games. Scott grabbed a career-high 17 rebounds in last month’s loss to the Ducks and will need another strong effort Thursday against an Oregon team that ended the regular season with 11 wins in its final 13 games.

TRENDS:

* Colorado is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Oregon is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Colorado’s last six games overall.

Stanford Cardinal vs. Utah Utes (OFF)

Utah has much loftier expectations than it had in previous Pac-12 tournament appearances and the third-seeded Utes will take their first step toward a much-coveted title when they meet No. 6 Stanford in the second round Thursday in Las Vegas. Utah received a bye into the quarterfinals thanks to their 13-5 mark during Pac-12 play. The Utes missed a chance at a No. 2 seed when they lost their regular-season finale to Washington, a team Stanford beat by two points in Wednesday’s opening round.

Stanford lost 75-59 to Utah during their only regular-season meeting, but the Cardinal should be fired up after Chasson Randle buried a 3-pointer with 2.4 seconds left to cap the comeback win against Washington. Randle will need to be even better if Stanford hopes to toppled the Utes as he had an otherwise sub-par game, shooting 3-for-11 with 10 points. He’ll be matched against the other top point guard in the Pac-12, Delon Wright, who comes in averaging 14.7 points, 5.3 assists and 4.7 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Stanford’s last seven games following a SU win.
* Under is 5-1 in Utah’s last six games overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big East Tournament Quarterfinals: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

Providence Friars vs. St. John’s Red Storm (-2)

Providence finished fourth in the Big East this season, but it appears that the Friars have earned a tough draw in the conference tournament. The Friars open play at Madison Square Garden against St. John’s on Thursday and, if they win, they’ll advance to face either Marquette, Seton Hall or, most likely, Villanova. As its luck would have it, Providence has lost to two teams multiple times this season – St. John’s and Villanova.

The fifth-seeded Red Storm had won seven of eight before absorbing a thunderous 105-68 defeat at the hands of Villanova in their regular-season finale. St. John’s rested two key contributors – forward Chris Obekpa (ankle) and guard Jamal Branch (groin) – against the Wildcats but still suffered their worst loss since 2002. The Friars had a chance to wrap up their regular season with five wins in six games but came up just short against Butler, 68-64, their last time out.

TRENDS:

*Friars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
*Over is 5-0 in Red Storm last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
*Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs (-1.5)

Xavier appears to be in good shape as Selection Sunday nears, but a win over No. 22 Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament on Thursday would certainly clinch a berth in the field of 68. The sixth-seeded Musketeers have been up and down over the last month – and for much of the season, for that matter – but they posted a resounding 73-56 win over the Bulldogs last month. “We definitely played up to our potential,” Xavier guard Myles Davis told reporters that night. “I think there’s still more to come.”

The Musketeers followed that win by losing two straight games, although they bounced back to defeat Creighton, 74-73, to finish the regular season 9-9 in conference play. Third-seeded Butler, meanwhile, closed its regular season with a 68-64 triumph at Providence as the team has allowed 57.3 points per game since the loss to Xavier. “Sometimes you say it just to say it, but this is a really good team,” coach Chris Holtmann said after his squad wrapped up the Big East season with a 12-6 mark.

TRENDS:

*Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in Musketeers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 6-0-1 in Bulldogs last 7 overall.
*Musketeers are 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Seton Hall/Marquette vs. Villanova Wildcats (OFF)

Third-ranked Villanova is the top seed in the Big East tournament and has its sights set on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, a loss Thursday against ninth-seeded Marquette could potentially push the Wildcats down to a No. 2 seed in the field of 68, which would be a big disappointment for a team that has not lost since Jan. 19. The Wildcats carry a 12-game winning streak into their quarterfinal matchup with the Golden Eagles and are coming off perhaps their most dominant performance of the season.

Villanova wrapped up the regular season with a 105-68 rout of St. John’s on Saturday as Daniel Ochefu recorded 21 points, nine rebounds and five blocks. “I think we’re playing as well as anybody in the country,” coach Jay Wright told reporters after his team racked 22 assists against three turnovers. “I think we can beat anybody in the country.” The Wildcats handled Marquette twice by double digits this season, although the Golden Eagles scored 76 in the last meeting – the most Villanova has allowed during its winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
* Marquette is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Villanova’s last five games overall.

Creighton vs. Georgetown Hoyas (OFF)

Georgetown handled Creighton easily on two occasions during the regular season and seeks a third victory against the Bluejays when the teams square off in Madison Square Garden on Thursday in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. The No. 23 Hoyas led comfortably throughout most of the second half on Jan. 3 en route to a 76-61 triumph against Creighton. The rematch on Jan. 31 proved to be a mismatch as Georgetown won 67-40 while holding the Bluejays without a field goal for more than 17 minutes spanning the two halves.

“Simply put, that’s embarrassing,” Creighton coach Greg McDermott told reporters after the second loss to Georgetown. “It was a battle of toughness, and we certainly weren’t up to the challenge.” The 10th-seeded Bluejays will get another crack at the second-seeded Hoyas after disposing of No. 7 seed DePaul by 15 points on Wednesday. James Milliken scored 22 points to lead Creighton, although he must play better than he did in the first two matchups with Georgetown if the Bluejays have any chance of advancing.

TRENDS:

* Creighton is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Georgetown is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* Under is 10-2 in Creighton’s last 12 games following a SU win.
* Over is 15-7-1 in Georgetown’s last 23 games following a SU win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinals: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Baylor Bears (-3)

West Virginia leading scorer Juwan Staten could be missing his fourth straight game on Thursday when the fifth-seeded Mountaineers face fourth-seeded Baylor in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. The standout guard is dealing with knee and groin injuries and No. 18 West Virginia badly needs his services to make a run at the tournament title. No. 16 Baylor won both regular-season meetings with the Mountaineers by an average of 15 points and has won five of its last six contests.

The Bears are one of two teams nationally to lead by at least six points in every game this season with the other being top-ranked Kentucky and that stat is one of many reasons why Baylor coach Scott Drew feels his team – or another Big 12 squad – can make a deep run in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. “Top to bottom, RPI-wise, we’re the best conference in the country,” Drew told reporters, “and with that, I think we have several teams that could make Final Four runs.” The Mountaineers have won four of their last six games with one of the two losses coming against Baylor.

TRENDS:

*Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 neutral site games.
*Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. Big 12.
*Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-4)

Oklahoma is aiming to defeat its biggest rival for the third straight time this season when it faces sixth-seeded Oklahoma State in Thursday’s quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. The No. 14 Sooners – who are seeded third – won the two meetings by an average of 12.5 points and are solidly assured of an NCAA Tournament bid no matter what happens in the tournament. That is not the case for the Cowboys, who have lost five of their last six games.

Oklahoma State’s only victory down the stretch came against lowly TCU after the Cowboys were in good shape prior to their sharp decline. The Sooners have won four of their last five games and enter with momentum after beating Kansas on a buzzer-beating basket last Saturday. “I’m just really looking forward to going to Kansas City and competing as hard as we can for a Big 12 championship,” Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield told reporters. “It’s going to be tough because every team is good in the league. We just have to grind.”

TRENDS:

*Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. Big 12.
*Under is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 neutral site games.
*Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. TCU Horned Frogs (OFF)

Top-seeded Kansas is hopeful of having leading scorer Perry Ellis on the floor when it opens Big 12 tournament play by facing ninth-seeded TCU in Thursday’s quarterfinals in Kansas City. Ellis missed the No. 10 Jayhawks’ regular-season finale because of a sprained right knee and coach Bill Self told reporters that Ellis will be a game-time decision. “He’ll wear a brace the rest of the season regardless for precautionary measures,” Self said.

The Horned Frogs posted their first Big 12 tournament win in three seasons in the league by producing a 67-65 victory over Kansas State on Wednesday. Now TCU gets a chance to record a huge upset with Kansas City serving as another home port for the Jayhawks. “We match up well with Kansas and we feel like they play the same style of basketball we do,” Horned Frogs guard Trey Zeigler said in the postgame press conference. “They’re a tough, physical, defensive team and we’re looking forward to that matchup.”

TRENDS:

* TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
* Kansas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Big 12.
* Over is 7-1 in TCU’s last eight games overall.
* Over is 4-1 Kansas’ last five games overall.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns (+6, OFF)

Second-seeded Iowa State looks to win the Big 12 tournament for the second straight season and opens play against Texas in Thursday’s quarterfinals at Kansas City. The No. 15 Cyclones were the No. 4 seed when they won last season’s crown but won’t be sneaking up on anybody this time around. The seventh-seeded Longhorns cruised past Texas Tech on Wednesday but badly need a victory over Iowa State to spruce up their NCAA Tournament resume.

Texas coach Rick Barnes has a 20-victory squad but remains nervous about how many more wins his team needs to make the NCAA Tournament. “They don’t wait until two weeks out, three weeks out, they work it all year,” Barnes said of the committee in the postgame press conference. “They’re going to know why we struggled in the middle of the year, they’re going to know we dealt with injuries and different things, they’re going to know it all because they do want to put together the best tournament they can and I have confidence in that.” The Longhorns led comfortably for the final 17 minutes against Texas Tech after leading by just four at halftime in the 65-53 victory.

TRENDS:

* Over is 16-4 in the last 20 meetings.
* Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning SU record.
* Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Over is 5-0 in Iowa State’s last five games versus a team with a winning SU record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten tournament Round 2: NCAAB Betting Cheat Sheet

Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5)

Few rivalries have produced the dramatic finishes that Michigan and Illinois have since the end of last season. The ninth-seeded Wolverines and eighth-seeded Illini renew acquaintances for the fourth time in less than a year on Thursday when they square off in a second-round Big Ten tournament game in Chicago. Michigan blew a 13-point second-half lead in last season’s second-round matchup with the Illini, but recovered just in time to pull out a 64-63 win en route to runner-up finish.

Each of the teams’ meetings this season went into overtime, with the Wolverines rallying from a 13-point deficit for a 73-65 victory on Dec. 30 and the Illini digging out of a seven-point hole with less than three minutes left to secure a 64-52 win on Feb. 12. Michigan won for only the second time in nine games last weekend, riding a season-high 31 points from freshman Aubrey Dawkins to a 79-69 home victory over last-place Rutgers. The Illini saw their tenuous NCAA Tournament hopes take a hit following Saturday’s 63-58 setback at Purdue and likely need to make a deep run at this event after going 5-11 against the RPI Top 100.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Illini are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Big Ten.
*Under is 8-3 in Wolverines last 11 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 7-3 in Fighting Illini last 10 vs. Big Ten.
*Wolverines are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-3.5)

Indiana finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble thanks to a three-game skid to end the regular season. The No. 7 seed Hoosiers look to avenge the first of those defeats Thursday when they face 10th-seeded Northwestern in second-round action at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago. Although Indiana hasn’t won two in a row since a four-game run in January, eight of its nine conference losses have come against opponents that finished above them in the standings.

The one outlier of that bunch came when Indiana fell 72-65 in Evanston, Ill. on Feb. 25, which coincidentally was the final victory of the Wildcats’ four-game conference winning streak – the school’s longest since the 1966-67 season. Northwestern dropped two of its last regular-season contests following that meeting with the Hoosiers, but its 5-2 finish was enough to give the school its highest seeding in this tournament since 2012. The Wildcats were unable to end the regular season strong, however, losing 69-52 at Iowa on Saturday

TRENDS:

*Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
*Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Wildcats are 18-4 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-7, OFF)

Few teams played worse than Iowa at the end of last year, but only one conference rival carries more momentum into the postseason this time around. The fifth-seeded Hawkeyes look to build upon their longest league winning streak in 28 years Thursday when they meet No. 13 seed Penn State in the second round of the Big Ten tournament in Chicago. Iowa finished the 2013-14 season by losing seven of its final eight games, including first-round losses in the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament.

The Hawkeyes enter this postseason with six straight victories – one shy of Maryland’s seven-game run – with the only close call over that stretch coming in an 81-77 overtime road victory against the Nittany Lions on Feb. 28. Penn State on Wednesday ended a three-year winless drought in conference tournament action, nearly giving up a 16-point second-half advantage before recovering for a 68-65 victory over Nebraska. The Nittany Lions, who improved to 10-17 at this event, recorded a tournament- and school-record 16 blocked shots in the victory.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Big Ten.
* Over is 4-0 in Penn State’s last four games overall.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (OFF)

Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell was the most impressive freshman among a loaded class of Big Ten rookies, although Minnesota likely saw the best and worst of him in their only meeting. The league’s second-leading scorer will get his first taste of conference tournament action Thursday when his sixth-seeded Buckeyes meet the Golden Gophers in a second-round game in Chicago. Russell was named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, edging out Maryland’s Melo Trimble and Indiana’s James Blackmon Jr.

The first-team all-conference performer ran Minnesota ragged in the first half of the Buckeyes’ 74-72 overtime win on Jan. 6, going 10-of-12 from the floor – including 5-of-5 beyond the arc – en route to a 25-point first half before the Golden Gophers held him to two points on 0-of-7 shooting after the break. Minnesota, the 11th seed, earned the right to avenge that setback with Wednesday’s 80-68 first-round victory over Rutgers. The win was only the Gophers’ second in the last seven games and marked the second time the Big Ten’s third-highest scoring team reached 80 points in regulation against a conference foe, with both instances coming against the Scarlet Knights.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Favorites is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Ohio State’s last five neutral site games.

 

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