STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/27/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 2/27/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Home side won last five Arkansas-Kentucky games; Razorbacks lost last five visits to Lexington, with three losses by 17+ points-- they beat Wildcats at buzzer in OT 87-85 Jan 14. Arkansas won five of last six games- their last three road games were decided by total of 8 points. SEC double digit home favorites are 11-12 versus spread. Kentucky won six of its last seven games- they're 4-3 as home favorite, with four home wins by 16+.
•Middle Tennessee won its last nine games, with three of last six wins by 4 or less points; they’re 11-2 in Sun Belt, losing by 5 at Tulsa, by 9 at UTEP (0-1 as road dog). C-USA home favorites of 5+ points are 29-17 versus spread. Louisiana Tech won five of its last six games; they're 5-2 as a home favorite, with six of seven home wins by 15+ points. Bulldogs are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.
•Green Bay (-11) beat Oakland 83-69 at home Jan 22, holding Grizzlies to 5-21 from arc (Bader was 2-11) in game Phoenix trailed by 5 at 10:03 mark. Green Bay won last three games, all by 14+ points; they're 5-1 on Horizon League road with only loss at Valparaiso when 7-foot-1 Brown didn't play. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-6 versus spread. Oakland is 2-4 in last six games, 0-6 versus spread in last six home games.
•Marquette (+3) won 80-72 in OT at Georgetown Jan 20, after trailing by 7 with 3:03 left; Eagles won three of last four series games, winning last four played here, by 12-3-1-14 points. Hoyas won four of last six games but are 1-4 as road underdogs. Marquette won four of its last five games, is 3-2 as home favorite- favorites covered five of their seven home tilts. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-7 versus spread.
•Home teams won six of last eight Tulsa-UTEP games, with home team winning last four; Hurricane lost last three visits to El Paso, by 14-10-9 points, but have won last five games overall, covering last seven- they're 11-2 versus spread in conference. C-USA home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-8 versus spread. UTEP won four of last five at home, with five wins by 10+ points; they're 3-3 as home favorites.
•UCLA (+4) won 70-68 at Oregon Jan 20, snapping 4-game series skid; Ducks won two of last three visits here. Oregon won last three games, is 2-1 as road dog; Ducks lost five of last six road games, with lone win at Washington state. Pac-12 home teams are 11-14 versus spread in games where number was 4 or less points. UCLA won four of last five at home; they're 6-0 as home favorites, with all six home wins by 12+ points.
•UCSB (-2.5) beat Cal-Irvine 80-60 Jan 20, its 4th win in last five series games, but Gauchos lost three of last four visits to Bren Center, losing by 2-3-2 points. Big West home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-3 versus spread. Irvine won five of last six games, is 2-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 18-6-3-18 points. Gauchos won six of last seven games; they're 2-0 as road dog, with Big West losses by 8-2-2 points.
•Long Beach (+6.5) shot 67.4% inside arc, won 92-83 at Hawaii Jan 30, its second win in three Big West games versus Rainbows, who lost here LY by 4. 49ers won seven of last nine games, are 4-1 as home favorites- they've lost at home to UCSB/Irvine. Hawaii won its last four road games, four of last five games overall; they're 1-1 as a road underdog. Big West home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-3 versus spread.
•Oregon State (-8) beat USC 76-75 in OT at home Jan 20, its fifth win in last seven series games; Beavers had 19 offensive boards in first meeting. OSU lost last four road games, with last win at Washington State- they've lost four of last five games overall. Pac-12 home favorites of more than 7 points are 17-15 versus spread. USC lost last eight games, covering one of last five; they've covered only one of their seven home games.
•Chattanooga lost five of last seven games; they're 10-4 after starting 8-0 in Southern Conference. Mocs (-2) beat Western Carolina 83-73 Feb 13, holding WCU to 4-25 from arc. Chattanooga lost its last three road games. WCU won five of last six games, covering last three; they're 6-2 at home in league play, with only loss by 5 to Davidson. SoCon favorites of 7+ points are 13-17 versus spread. WCU forces turnovers 22% of time, best in conference.
•Wofford won five of last six games with Elon, winning two of last three visits here; Terriers won five of last six games; favorites covered all five of their Southern Conference road games. Wofford is 4-2 on conference road, losing by 10-1 at Davidson/Chattanooga. SoCon home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-8-1 versus spread. Elon won its last eight games, covered last four; they are 2-4 as conference home favorites.
•South Dakota State (+8) outscored Denver 7-2 over last 0:36 won 74-73 on road Jan 30 in first Summit League game between these two, Jackrabbits won six of last seven games, are 3-1 as home favorites, 3-2 overall at home, losing to Omaha/North Dakota State. Denver won last three games; dogs covered four of their five conference road games. Favorites are 15-7 versus spread in Summit games where spread was 5 or less points.
•Iowa is 4-5 in its last nine games after a 15-3 start; Hawkeyes allowed 74+ points in four of last six games, are 3-1 as road favorites, with four road wins, all by 7+ points. Indiana lost seven of last ten games, after it got whacked in second half at Wisconsin Tuesday; they're 3-3 at home in conference, 2-1 as home underdogs. Big Dozen home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-9 versus spread. This is a rescheduled game from last week.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after 3 consecutive conference games this season.
The average score was LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 69.6, OPPONENT 79.8.
-- MEMPHIS is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 80.4, OPPONENT 72.8.
-- IOWA is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the 1rst half line after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was IOWA 37.7, OPPONENT 28.6.
-- OHIO ST is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO ST 28.3, OPPONENT 26.4.
-- THAD MATTA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better as the coach of OHIO ST.
The average score was MATTA 73.2, OPPONENT 59.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- MONTANA ST is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) versus poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MONTANA ST 66.5, OPPONENT 73.0.
-- MIDDLE TENN ST is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game since 1997.
The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 67.9, OPPONENT 71.2.
-- DAVIDSON is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DAVIDSON 47.6, OPPONENT 27.4.
-- MIDDLE TENN ST is 15-1 UNDER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game since 1997.
The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 27.9, OPPONENT 28.9.
-- SAUL PHILLIPS is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games as the coach of N DAKOTA ST.
The average score was PHILLIPS 68.0, OPPONENT 66.7.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - A road team versus the money line (WI-MILWAUKEE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team.
(40-5 since 1997.) (88.9%, +32.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -147
The average score in these games was: Team 73.6, Opponent 66.9 (Average point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0, +6.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-0, +9.2 units).
-- Play On - Underdogs of 10 or more points (PORTLAND) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, revenging a home loss versus opponent, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(30-7 since 1997.) (81.1%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (11-26)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.1
The average score in these games was: Team 69.4, Opponent 75.9 (Average point differential = -6.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (56.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PACIFIC) - good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games, revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off 3 straight losses against conference rivals.
(52-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +33.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (59-12 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.5
The average score in these games was: Team 73.5, Opponent 64.7 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (25.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-13).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-104).
-- Play Over - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (S DAKOTA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%) after 15+ games.
(68-28 since 1997.) (70.8%, +37.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.1
The average score in these games was: Team 74.4, Opponent 76.7 (Total points scored = 151.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 52 (54.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-10).
-- Play On - A home team versus the 1rst half line (MONTANA ST) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an terrible defensive team (>=47.5%) after 15+ games, after allowing 85 points or more against opponent after allowing 85 points or more 2 straight games.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 38.4, Opponent 28.6 (Average first half point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-49).
-- Play On - Home underdogs of 6 or more points versus the first half line (FORDHAM) - pathetic team - shooting <=42% with a defense of >=45% on the season, after 3 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more.
(33-10 since 1997.) (76.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.1, Opponent 35.9 (Average first half point differential = -5.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#509 OHIO ST @ #510 PENN ST
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Ohio State -6, Total: 130) - Just as Ohio State thought its season couldn’t get any worse last month, Penn State proved that it could when it ended an 18-game losing streak to its Big Ten rival. The 20th-ranked Buckeyes, who target their seventh win in eight games on Thursday when they hit the road to meet the Nittany Lions, lost for the fifth time in six games on Jan. 29 when Penn State handed them a 71-70 loss at home. The setback was Ohio State coach Thad Matta’s first in the series since joining the school in 2004.
The Buckeyes, who lead the conference in scoring defense (58.1 points), have returned to their roots since the calendar turned to February, holding three of their opponents under 50 points during a 6-1 stretch. The Nittany Lions’ victory in the first meeting was one of three in a row, but they have dropped four of five since. Penn State, which is one of only two Big Ten teams with a losing record, fell back under .500 following last Thursday’s loss at Nebraska.
•ABOUT OHIO STATE (22-6 SU, 15-12-0 ATS, 9-6 Big Ten): The Buckeyes have been particularly dominant in the second half during their three-game winning streak, outscoring Illinois, Northwestern and Minnesota 113-61. In the wins over the Illini and Gophers, Ohio State limited each team to 18 points or fewer and 28.2 percent shooting after intermission. The Buckeyes outscored Minnesota 46-18 in the second half of Saturday’s win, rallying from a halftime deficit of 10 or more points for the first time since digging out of a 13-point hole at Purdue on Jan. 12, 2010.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (13-14 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 4-10 Big Ten): Tim Frazier and D.J. Newbill combine to average 33.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists, making them the only guard duo in the country to rank in the top five in all three categories. Frazier needs three rebounds to join former Iowa standout Jeff Horner as the only players in Big Ten history to reach 1,000 points, 600 assists and 500 rebounds. Newbill, who ranks fourth in the conference in scoring (17.4 points), matched a season high with 25 points against the Buckeyes on Jan. 29.
•PREGAME NOTES: Ohio State has not lost twice in the regular season to a Big Ten opponent since 2008-09.... Each of Penn State’s last two opponents have made at least 30 free throws and attempted at least 40, leading to a 68-32 disadvantage for the Nittany Lions over that span.... With 321 career steals, Buckeyes G Aaron Craft needs four more to pass former Illinois standout Bruce Douglas (1982-86) for first place in Big Ten history.... The Nittany Lions are 11-3 versus the spread versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.... The Buckeyes are 20-4 against the spread revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 610 times, while OHIO ST covered the spread 350 times. *EDGE against the spread =PENN ST. In 1000 simulated games, OHIO ST won the game straight up 545 times, while PENN ST won 430 times. In 1000 simulated games, 731 games went over the total, while 251 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 590 times, while OHIO ST covered the first half line 374 times. *EDGE against first half line =PENN ST. In 1000 simulated games, 690 games went over first half total, while 310 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OHIO ST is 17-14 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--OHIO ST is 24-7 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--PENN ST is 14-13 versus the first half line when playing against OHIO ST since 1997.
--14 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Penn St.
--Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Penn St.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OSU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--OSU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--Over is 16-7 in OSU last 23 Thu. games.
--PSU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--PSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Over is 4-1 in PSU last 5 Thursday games.
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#519 ARKANSAS @ #520 KENTUCKY
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Kentucky -10.5, Total: 148.5) - Arkansas already knocked off Kentucky once this season, and doing it again would greatly improve the NCAA Tournament chances for the Razorbacks. The 15th-ranked Wildcats will try to keep that from happening when they host Arkansas on Thursday. The Razorbacks are winners of three straight and five of the last six and had one of their more impressive performances against Kentucky in an 87-85 overtime victory on Jan. 14.
Michael Qualls played the hero in that first meeting, slipping in undetected from the baseline on the weak side to corral Rashad Madden’s 3-point miss and slamming it home in one motion with 0.2 seconds remaining in overtime. The Wildcats have gone 9-2 since that setback but needed overtime again to scrape past LSU 77-76 on Saturday. Kentucky still has an outside shot at a share of the SEC regular-season title but would need to win its last four games and have undefeated Florida somehow stumble into a losing streak to close things out.
•ABOUT ARKANSAS (18-9 SU, 12-12-0 ATS, 7-7 SEC): The Razorbacks recovered from a disappointing start to conference play with their performance over the last month and are letting their full-court defense open up opportunities on the other end. Arkansas forced 17 turnovers in the Jan. 14 meeting and gave it away only six times to help make up for a 50-32 disadvantage on the boards. Qualls has added a long-range game to his highlight-worthy dunks and has knocked down at least two 3-pointers in four of the last five games while scoring in double figures in each of those five contests.
•ABOUT KENTUCKY (21-6 SU, 12-11-2 ATS, 11-3 SEC): The Wildcats got a scare from the Tigers at home on Saturday but pulled through when Julius Randle grabbed a rebound and tossed in a short jumper in the final seconds for a 77-76 win. Randle, who put up 25 points and 13 boards in a win over Mississippi early in the week, earned SEC and National Player of the Week honors for the two performances. The freshman forward put up 20 points and 14 rebounds in the Arkansas game but did most of his damage at the free-throw line (10-of-14) before fouling out himself.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arkansas (80.5) and Kentucky (78.2) are first and second in the SEC, respectively, in scoring average.... Razorbacks F Bobby Portis recorded a double-double (11 points, 10 rebounds) in the first meeting but has not hit double figures on the boards since.... Wildcats G James Young is averaging 18.3 points in the last three games.... The Razorbacks are 1-8 versus the spread in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last three seasons.... Kentucky is 7-16 against the spread when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the spread 646 times, while KENTUCKY covered the spread 354 times. *EDGE against the spread =ARKANSAS. In 1000 simulated games, KENTUCKY won the game straight up 677 times, while ARKANSAS won 294 times. In 1000 simulated games, 540 games went over the total, while 460 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARKANSAS covered the first half line 635 times, while KENTUCKY covered the first half line 317 times. *EDGE against first half line =ARKANSAS. In 1000 simulated games, 508 games went over first half total, while 449 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--KENTUCKY is 11-10 against the spread versus ARKANSAS since 1997.
--KENTUCKY is 15-6 straight up against ARKANSAS since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARKANSAS is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against KENTUCKY since 1997.
--11 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Razorbacks are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Kentucky.
--Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ARK is 23-55 ATS in their last 78 road games.
--Over is 4-1 in ARK last 5 road games.
--Over is 8-2 in ARK last 10 games following a ATS loss.
--UK is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in UK last 6 home games.
--Under is 7-3-1 in UK last 11 games following a ATS loss.
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#537 DUQUESNE @ #538 SAINT LOUIS
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBC Sports Network – Line: Saint Louis -15, Total: 138.5) - Eighth-ranked Saint Louis looks to push its school-record winning streak to 20 games and lock up the top seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament when it hosts Duquesne on Thursday. The Billikens are 25-2 for the first time in school history and have won their first 12 conference games for the first time as well. They need one more win to clinch at least a share of the regular-season A-10 title and can win the crown outright by winning at least two of their final four games.
“That’s huge,” coach Jim Crews said via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “Any time you can win a championship, it’s absolutely monumental. I think it’s pretty good when kids can win a championship. For them to do it this year would be remarkable and doing it in back-to-back years is incredible. If we could accomplish that, it would be one heck of a feat for them.” Things have not been particularly easy for the Billikens of late, as they have posted their last four victories by a total of 15 points. The Dukes, meanwhile, have lost six of their last seven games and 10 of their last 13, although they played the Billikens tough in the first meeting.
•ABOUT DUQUESNE (11-15 SU, 10-5-2 ATS, 3-10 A-10): The Dukes' last two defeats have come by a total of seven points, including Saturday's three-point loss against Dayton in which Duquesne blew an 18-point second-half lead. Ovie Soko scored 26 points in that one, but none of his teammates contributed more than eight, and the team was haunted by poor shooting from the field, as Soko was 9-of-13 but the rest of the Dukes were 10-of-43. Soko, a senior forward who averaged 8.3 points last season, is now contributing 18.5 per game with a team-high 7.9 boards.
•ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (25-2 SU, 9-15-0 ATS, 12-0 A-10): The Billikens, who have not lost since Dec. 1 against Wichita State, lead the A-10 in scoring defense (59.9 points). They were essentially right on that number on Saturday, yielding 59 in a seven-point win over George Washington, with Jordair Jett (16 points) and Rob Loe (12 points, nine boards) leading the way offensively. Jett has been terrific over his last four games, averaging 20 points and 5.3 assists, although his free-throw shooting - 21-of-35 during that stretch and 62.8 percent on the season - continues to be a weak spot for the senior guard.
•PREGAME NOTES: Billikens leading scorer Dwayne Evans has committed at least three fouls in six straight games and was limited to 17 minutes - and four points - against George Washington due to foul trouble.... Saint Louis won the first meeting on Jan. 22, as Mike McCall's two late free throws provided some breathing room in a 76-72 road triumph.... Duquesne G Micah Mason has made 31 3-pointers over his last 10 games and leads the team with 56 3s despite missing five games earlier this season.... Saint Louis is 9-23 versus the spread after a game where they made 20% of their 3-point shots or worse since 1997.... The Dukes are 4-13 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUQUESNE covered the spread 589 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the spread 376 times. *EDGE against the spread =DUQUESNE. In 1000 simulated games, SAINT LOUIS won the game straight up 791 times, while DUQUESNE won 188 times. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went over the total, while 469 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DUQUESNE covered the first half line 609 times, while SAINT LOUIS covered the first half line 391 times. *EDGE against first half line =DUQUESNE. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went over first half total, while 414 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAINT LOUIS is 9-5 against the spread versus DUQUESNE since 1997.
--SAINT LOUIS is 10-4 straight up against DUQUESNE since 1997.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--DUQUESNE is 8-6 versus the first half line when playing against SAINT LOUIS since 1997.
--7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Dukes are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Dukes are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Saint Louis.
--Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Saint Louis.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DUQ is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--DUQ is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Under is 6-1 in DUQ last 7 vs. Atlantic 10.
--SLU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic 10.
--Under is 21-8 in SLU last 29 overall.
--Under is 9-2 in SLU last 11 Thu. games.
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#541 MEMPHIS @ #542 HOUSTON
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Memphis -6, Total: 145) - No. 22 Memphis has already earned a first-round bye in the American Athletic Conference tournament, but Houston is chasing one as the Cougars host the streaking Tigers on Thursday. The top six teams get a bye and the Tigers, who have won eight of 10, are guaranteed a top-five finish in the AAC. Freshman Austin Nichols (13.5 points on 70.6 percent shooting, eight rebounds, 3.5 blocks) and Shaq Goodwin (15 points on 66.7 percent shooting) were honored by the league after big performances in Memphis' two wins last week.
The Cougars have lost seven of nine game bust start the week sixth in the league. Four of the Cougars' five conference wins are against teams below them in the rankings and Houston faces three of those teams to finish the regular season. TaShawn Thomas, who leads the Cougars in points and rebounds, needs five rebounds to join an elite club at Houston.
•ABOUT MEMPHIS (21-6 SU, 14-10-0 ATS, 10-4 AAC): Goodwin averages 12.5 points on a league-best 61.7 percent shooting and a team-high 6.4 rebounds. Michael Dixon Jr. adds 11.6 points for Memphis, which has won four in a row against Houston. Joe Jackson leads the team with 14.7 points and 4.7 assists, and the Tigers started the week ranked third nationally with 17.8 assists.
•ABOUT HOUSTON (13-14 SU, 11-10-1 ATS, 5-9 ACC): Thomas (15.7 points, 8.4 rebounds) needs five boards to become the seventh player in school history with 1,300 points and 800 rebounds, joining Elvin Hayes, Dwight Davis, Greg Anderson, Rickie Winslow, Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon. Danuel House adds 13.2 points and Jherrod Stiggers adds 10.3 points. L.J. Rose chips in 8.3 points and is second in the league with 5.2 assists.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis started the week ranked 316th out of 345 Division I teams in free-throw percentage (65) but are 6-0 when shooting under 60 percent from the line.... Memphis coach Josh Pastner, who grew up in nearby Kingwood, Texas, is 8-3 against Houston-based teams Houston, Houston Baptist and Rice.... Houston is 1-4 against ranked foes and its six top-25 opponents are the most since playing seven in 1984-85.... The Tigers are 11-3 against the spread in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.... The Cougars are 10-2 versus the spread in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 496 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 474 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 672 times, while HOUSTON won 305 times. In 1000 simulated games, 520 games went over the total, while 455 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 480 times, while HOUSTON covered the first half line 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 545 games went over first half total, while 404 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--HOUSTON is 17-14 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1997.
--MEMPHIS is 24-8 straight up against HOUSTON since 1997.
--15 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--HOUSTON is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
--Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MEM is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thu. games.
--MEM is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--Under is 11-5 in MEM last 16 road games.
--HOU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--HOU is 3-0-1 ATS L4 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--Under is 9-4 in HOU last 13 home games.
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#551 TEMPLE @ #552 LOUISVILLE
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Louisville -21.5, Total: 146.5) - Louisville seeks its seventh straight win and looks to move back into a first-place tie atop the American Athletic Conference when it hosts Temple on Thursday. The fourth-ranked Cardinals will have had five days to bask in perhaps their biggest win of the year, a 58-57 victory at Cincinnati that enabled them to move within a half-game of the Bearcats in the race for the top spot. Russ Smith's go-ahead jumper in the closing seconds was the difference as Louisville won a nail-biter after five consecutive victories by an average of 26 points.
One of those blowouts was an 82-58 rout of the Owls on Feb. 14 in a game that saw Montrezl Harrell score a career-high 22 points and collect 10 rebounds for the Cardinals. Will Cummings led Temple with 16 points in that meeting and also had 24 points and six assists in the Owls' 82-79 overtime loss at Memphis on Saturday. The matchup with Louisville is the last of five straight for Temple against AAC teams that are ranked or were ranked at the time of the encounter.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (7-19 SU, 10-13-1 ATS, 2-12 AAC): The Owls have been much more competitive against the run of high-end competition since being throttled by Louisville, upsetting Southern Methodist two days later before fading late in a 13-point loss to Connecticut and then pushing Memphis to overtime on the road. They played two of those games - the win over the Mustangs and the OT loss to the Tigers - without leading rebounder Anthony Lee, who has been hampered by a knee injury. F Devontae Watson stepped up in those affairs with a total of 17 rebounds.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (23-4 SU, 14-11-0 ATS, 12-2 ACC): Some wondered if the Cardinals would contend for a repeat national title once forward Chane Behanan was dismissed earlier in the season, but Harrell's stellar play has changed that perception. The sophomore has six double-doubles in conference play and entered Wednesday ranked among the top four in the AAC in rebounding, field goal percentage and blocked shots. In addition to his 22 points and 10 rebounds at Temple earlier this month, Harrell tied a career high with four blocks and chipped in two assists and a steal in a dominant 31 minutes.
•PREGAME NOTES: Temple's reserves have combined for just 11 of the team's 194 points in the last three games.... Smith needs 17 points to move into ninth place on the school's all-time scoring list.... The Owls rank last in the AAC in shooting (40.1 percent) and also bring up the rear in field goal percentage defense (50.2).... The Cardinals are 14-5 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... Temple is 9-2 against the spread revenging a loss versus opponent over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the spread 501 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the spread 499 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 935 times, while TEMPLE won 52 times. In 1000 simulated games, 674 games went over the total, while 326 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 542 times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 410 times. *EDGE against first half line =TEMPLE. In 1000 simulated games, 630 games went over first half total, while 335 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 1-1 straight up against TEMPLE since 1997.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LOUISVILLE is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against TEMPLE since 1997.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--TEM is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 10-4 in TEM last 14 road games.
--LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--LOU is 4-1 ATS L5 vs. American Athletic Conference.
--Over is 19-7 in LOU last 26 home games.
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#607 IOWA @ #608 INDIANA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Iowa -4, Total: 144.5) - Iowa looks to end its first losing streak of the season when it visits Indiana in a Big Ten clash that was rescheduled from Feb. 18 due to a beam that fell at Assembly Hall last week. Following the postponement of that affair, the 19th-ranked Hawkeyes returned home to lose to Wisconsin before suffering a 95-89 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday night. The offensive-minded Iowa team had its highest scoring output in nine games but could not slow down the Golden Gophers, who shot 61.2 percent, a season high by a wide margin for a Hawkeyes opponent.
The structural incident at Assembly Hall is part of difficult month for the Hoosiers, who have lost four of their last five after a 69-58 setback at Wisconsin on Tuesday, when Tom Crean's team lost a 10-point halftime lead. Yogi Ferrell scored 24 points and Noah Vonleh added 18 but just three other Indiana players got into the scoring column while the Hoosiers attempted a season-low three free throws. Iowa had won 11 of 16 meetings before Indiana swept the two-game season series in 2012-13.
•ABOUT IOWA (19-8 SU, 15-10-0 ATS, 8-6 Big Ten): The rescheduled date means that the Hawkeyes will be forced to play three games in three locations in a span of six days, beginning with the loss at Minnesota. Purdue did agree to move its visit to Iowa from March 1 to March 2, but it will be a difficult span for a team that is in danger of sinking toward the middle of the pack in the conference and has not had the services of senior forward Melsahn Basabe. Basabe, who played just one minute in the loss to the Badgers and sat against the Gophers, has been ill and his status for Thursday night is unknown.
•ABOUT INDIANA (15-12 SU, 12-13-1 ATS, 5-9 Big Ten): Ferrell has scored nearly a third of the Hoosiers' points over the last six games as the league's 10th-ranked offense has sputtered, but Vonleh has shown an increase in his aggressiveness on that end of the floor, taking at least 10 shots in consecutive games for the first time since November. The freshman big man also is 14-for-21 from long range in his last 14 games after making two more 3-pointers at Wisconsin. Indiana is not included in many NCAA Tournament discussions these days, but it has a chance to boost its resume with three straight home games - two against ranked opponents - and a visit to first-place Michigan, which it already defeated, to close out the regular season.
•PREGAME NOTES: Iowa G Roy Devyn Marble has averaged 22.5 points, 8.5 assists and four rebounds during the two-game skid.... Ferrell scored 19 points in a 73-60 win last March vs. Iowa, a season high for him as a freshman.... G Josh Ogelsby has seen an increase in playing time with Basabe out, averaging 16.5 points on 59.1 percent shooting in the last two games.... The Hawkeyes are 19-5 against the spread versus good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 42% after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Hoosiers are 11-2 versus the spread when playing only their 3rd game in a week over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the spread 525 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 443 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, IOWA won the game straight up 647 times, while INDIANA won 334 times. In 1000 simulated games, 602 games went over the total, while 398 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, IOWA covered the first half line 505 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 573 games went over first half total, while 388 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--IOWA is 21-9 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1997.
--IOWA is 17-13 straight up against INDIANA since 1997.
--14 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--INDIANA is 15-15 versus the first half line when playing against IOWA since 1997.
--13 of 26 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Hawkeyes are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
--Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Indiana.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IOWA is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--IOWA is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. Big Ten.
--Over is 6-2 in IOWA last 8 road games.
--IND is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
--Under is 9-1 in IND last 10 overall.
--Under is 9-1 in IND last 10 vs. Big Ten.
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