Thursday 2/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Northwest Division Analysis
By Joe Nelson

Take a look at the five teams in the Western Conference Northwest Division as we approach the second half of the season. Here is a breakdown of the results and spread results for each team in the Northwest division and a look at what situations may be favorable moving forward for each squad.

In the loaded Western Conference, the Northwest only features two viable playoff contenders and compared with the rest of the conference, the Northwest has been the weakest and most disappointing division. Portland has a huge lead in the division at the break, but Oklahoma City is certainly a team that is poised to make a run after the slow injury-plagued first month. While the rest of the division features three lottery-bound teams, there have been opportunities for those teams to play well and at least two of those squads look like potential play-on teams the rest of the way.

Portland Trail Blazers: At the break, Portland is the #3 seed in the Western Conference at 36-17, but there is fine line between the #3 and #7 spots in the Western Conference with five teams sitting just two games apart. The Blazers slumped into the break with losses in nine of the last 15 games to surrender a lot of ground in the conference race as at one point, Portland looked like a team that could challenge Golden State for the best record in the conference. The overall schedule has been relatively weak for Portland and the Blazers only have six wins against teams considered in the top 10 of the league, the second-fewest among the teams in that top 10 grouping at the moment.

The Blazers are just 13-12 S/U on the road this season, but they have one of the best division records in the NBA at 7-1 S/U. The Blazers are 2-0 against Oklahoma City this season with two meetings to go which could be a key edge in a race that most expect will tighten down the stretch. Portland is on a 5-10 ATS run to melt away what was once a great spread record as the Blazers are now 27-25-1 ATS at the All Star break, with a slight winning mark at home and a slight losing mark on the road. Portland is 9-7 ATS as an underdog this season including winning both instances as a home underdog while compiling a 23-5 S/U record at home. The ‘under’ has been the best bet in Portland home games going 19-9 on the season.

Oklahoma City Thunder: At the All Star break, Oklahoma City is the first team on the outside of the Western Conference playoff picture, sitting a half game behind the Suns and a game ahead of New Orleans in what figures to be a three-team race down the stretch. Oklahoma City has by far the best average point differential of those teams and the Thunder has the strongest home court edge going 16-8 S/U at home this season. The Thunder has played a top six schedule at this point in the season and obviously much of the losing occurred early in the season with a short-handed roster. Oklahoma City has not fared well against top competition, going 4-13 S/U vs. the top 10 and 11-18 S/U vs. the top 16 in the league at this point in the season despite most, including Kevin Durant, still feel like this team is a legitimate contender to make a deep playoff run.

After starting the season 3-12 S/U though 7-7-1 ATS, the Thunder have made an incredible turnaround. With that success has come steep pricing as Oklahoma City has been a tough team to support, riding a 10-18 ATS run since mid-December. On the season, the ‘under’ is leading the way for the Thunder as well at 30-21-2 on the season. Oklahoma City is just 12-17 S/U and 10-18-1 ATS on the road this season, really burning backers in the road underdog role that has been very successful for most teams this season. Oklahoma City is 4-11-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, while blindly backing road underdogs in the NBA has connected at an over 53 percent clip before the All Star break. Oklahoma City is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog, though it is worth noting that all five of those covers came in November.

Denver Nuggets: Denver head coach Brian Shaw appears to be on a growing hot seat as the Nuggets are a big disappointment this season at 20-33, including 20-29-4 ATS at the break. After losing seven of the first nine games, Denver made a quick turnaround in November to enter December at .500, but since mid-January, the Nuggets have been on a free fall, losing 13 of the final 15 games before the break with only four covers in that span. It was not long ago that Denver was one of the toughest places in the league to play, but the Nuggets are 12-14 S/U at home, going 10-14-2 ATS at the Pepsi Center. There are losing marks pretty much across the board for the Nuggets in any breakdown expect for Denver being 4-1 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog, a situation Denver may be in more often in the coming weeks if the losses keep piling up. Into the break, the Nuggets have lost S/U in each of the last six home games and this is a team that is 8-19 S/U on the road this season, going 10-15-2 ATS. The ‘under’ has been successful in Denver road games as well at 15-9-3, including a 6-1-2 run before the All Star break. It has been a relatively tough schedule for the Nuggets at this point in the season and there could be some opportunities to improve in record in the upcoming weeks, but a rally back into the playoff race certainly seems unlikely.

Utah Jazz: If you want to dig really deep for a sleeper to make a run at the playoffs, the Jazz have some reasons to suggest a strong finish could be on the way. Utah is nearly 10 games behind the Suns for the final spot in the Western Conference, but this is a team with an average point differential of only -2.4 per game and that is through a schedule that rates as the second-toughest in the NBA at this point. Utah is just 4-19 S/U vs. the top 10 teams in the league, but the good news is that most of those games are out of the way and outside of a tough first two games after the break, the late February and March schedule looks pretty attractive for the Jazz. Utah has been a slight ATS winner this season at 28-24-1 ATS, finding success on the road at 16-11-1 ATS and as an underdog at 23-19-1 ATS.

Utah enters the break on an 18-11-1 ATS run going back to mid-December and this is a team that has leaned to the ‘under’ with the ‘under’ in Jazz games going 30-22-1 this season. The home court for the Jazz is starting to look a bit tougher as well with Utah covering in five of the final seven home games before the break, featuring four S/U wins including a big upset over Golden State. Utah is just 7-8 ATS this season as a home underdog at this point in the season. Thirteen of the past 15 foes in Salt Lake City have been held to 100 or fewer points as Utah and the ‘under’ have been finding more success at EnergySolutions Arena with improved defensive play. It would take an epic run for Utah to climb back into the race, but for what it is worth, the Jazz look like one of the best of the lottery teams and a team that could be somewhat of a surprise team in the second half even with little to play for.

Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves started the season 2-2 with the losses coming in tight games with Memphis and Chicago as this looked like a promising team that might surprise. Injuries derailed the squad quickly and Minnesota has spent most of the season as one of the worst teams in the league, clearly shifting to the youth movement and looking to the future. Just before the break, Minnesota surprised with wins in three of the final five games with the two losses coming in competitive games with the two conference leaders. The Wolves certainly did not have an All Star this season, but it was a bit of showcase weekend with Andrew Wiggins taking the MVP in the Futures game and Zach LaVine winning the Slam Dunk contest with two Minnesota rookies on display.

At 11-42 S/U on the season, Minnesota will be in a good position to land another high profile rookie in the draft this summer and Minnesota is just 23-29-1 ATS on the season even with a recent surge, going 17-11 ATS since Christmas. It is a little hard to believe that Minnesota has been a favorite seven times this season, going 2-5 ATS and the Wolves are just 10-16 ATS at home even with some hefty underdog pricing at times. This has been one of the few clear ‘over’ teams in the league with the ‘over’ 30-23 on the season though that has been less conclusive in the last month with Minnesota playing more competitive ball overall. Minnesota is 10-3 ATS since Christmas in road games taking advantage of big spreads in many of those games as they have only five S/U road wins all season. The edge for the ‘over’ in Wolves games has almost been exclusively away from the Target Center as well. It has been a challenging season for a franchise that has had very little success in its history, but the second half schedule is a bit more promising and Minnesota’s young squad could emerge as a play-on team in many situations as there is some exciting young talent on the roster.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essentials: NBA back with a bang
By Tony Mejia

A number of NBA teams probably would’ve preferred to keep right on playing through the All-Star break. LeBron James got to co-host a fashion show and hang with budding star Amy Schumer, whose upcoming comedy he’s got a cameo in. Still, riding out the surge his Cavs were on may have had its benefits. One could argue last Thursday’s loss to the Bulls could be hung on Cleveland looking ahead to the weekend. Before then, the Cavs had won 14 of 15 games. Ironically, James was consulted by Commissioner Adam Silver when this change was being considered.
“I had a say and I thought it would do everybody in our league good,” James said. “It wasn’t just for me or for the players or the All-Stars. It was for everyone and the commish definitely was all for it. I think it’s going to help everyone.”

In theory, it should, giving players an opportunity to get extended rest. Most teams aren’t practicing until Wednesday. Decompression may be good for the mind and will certainly do a few ailing bodies a solid, but there figure to be some disadvantages. Inevitably, it will become a disaster for whatever teams lose focus or can’t get back in a rhythm.

Chicago actually exits the break with the NBA’s longest winning streak, owning wins in four straight. Toronto and Milwaukee have won eight of 10. Memphis is the only team in the Western Conference that has run that hot of late, so it will be interesting to see whether they can hold off the Rockets, Mavericks and Spurs to secure the league’s toughest division. They’re the final team to get back in the swing of things, off until taking the court at Portland on Sunday night. Here’s what to be on the lookout for as teams reconvene with anywhere from 26 to 31 regular-season games remaining:

First out of hiding

Action returns on Thursday with a TNT Western Conference doubleheader consisting of Mavericks-Thunder and Spurs-Clippers. OKC is just a half game behind Phoenix in the race for the eighth seed, while Dallas, San Antonio and the L.A. Clippers each have 19 losses, currently taking up seeds 5-to-7.

The Mavericks are expected to have Amar’e Stoudemire in uniform when they tip off with the Thunder, having locked up his commitment upon clearing waivers on Wednesday. The Spurs and Clippers were among the teams interested in his services after news he’d reached a buyout with New York leaked out. Stoudemire has experience working with Tyson Chandler, albeit not successfully since it came with the Knicks, but he should immediately become Dallas’ first big off the bench.

Beyond seeing how he fits in, other variables the Mavericks will be dealing with include the health of Monta Ellis (hip), Rajon Rondo (facial fracture) and Chandler (ankle). All of them were hurting entering the break, so it will be interesting to see whether any or all will return, not to mention how quickly they can get back in a rhythm. Following the visit to OKC, Dallas hosts Houston, Charlotte and Toronto before going back on the road to face Atlanta on Feb. 25, a stretch of five challenging games in seven days.

Conversely, the Mavs are the only team with a winning record the Thunder will see until a challenging road back-to-back at Phoenix and Portland at the end of the month. Expect Oklahoma City to be favored in its next four games, giving it an opportunity to claim a firmer grip on No. 8.

The Clippers returned to Staples Center just before the All-Star break after their eight-game Grammy road trip that saw them lose five of eight games, not to mention Blake Griffin (staph infection). Though it beat the Rockets handily without him, we’ll see just how much L.A. will miss him immediately since it hosts San Antonio, Sacramento and Memphis out of the gate.

The Spurs, embarked on their nine-game Rodeo road trip, will be playing Game 4 of the lengthy stretch and faces Golden State on Friday. Given all the veterans involved, not to mention coaches Gregg Popovich and Doc Rivers, expect playoff-like intensity as both teams are likely to have their sense of urgency ratcheted up.

Pelicans play waiting game

Anthony Davis had to miss the All-Star game with a shoulder strain, while sixth man Ryan Anderson has been nursing a right elbow sprain and Jrue Holiday has been out with a leg injury. The break should do New Orleans wonders as a result, but it’s still unclear exactly who will be ready to return when it tries to snap a three-game losing streak at Orlando on Friday.

Tyreke Evans has been incredibly productive handling point guard duties and Dante Cunningham has settled in nicely as the starting small forward, so head coach Monty Williams has some decisions to make on the two-game run through Florida that continues in Miami on Saturday night. The Pelicans had lost four of five SU and ATS, while seeing six of seven games go over the posted total, but neither trend can be trusted until we see who the team has back and how they’re going to be utilized going forward.

Sun setting on Dragic’s time in Phoenix?

Even though the Suns are invested in making the playoffs after falling just short last season, a decision must be made regarding the future of guard Goran Dragic. Phoenix’s second-leading scorer isn’t going to exercise his player option this summer, which means he’s certain to be an unrestricted free agent unless an extension can be agreed upon.

As a result, the reigning Most Improved player is the biggest name on any most-likely-to-be-dealt list put out between now and Thursday’s 3 p.m. ET trade deadline. Even though the team is committed to a run at the postseason, it wouldn’t be good business to risk him leaving in a few months without getting anything return. GM Ryan McDonough has done a nice job acquiring young talent and definitely has offers to weigh if an extension with Dragic can’t be reached, so there’s a very good chance the Slovenian point guard could be wearing another uniform when Phoenix takes the court in Minnesota on Feb. 20.

Other players virtually certain to be moved between now and the deadline include New York’s Jose Calderon, Boston’s Brandon Bass and Denver wings Arron Afflalo and Wilson Chandler. Brooklyn’s Brook Lopez and Oklahoma City’s Reggie Jackson are also available, but there isn’t as great a sense of urgency to move them as there is with the other players mentioned.

Friday night fights

The league’s schedule makers certainly got it right when it came to setting up appealing matchups for the first full evening of action. Division leaders meet in Atlanta when the Raptors challenge the Hawks, looking to beat the team with the Eastern Conference’s top record three out of four times. Although Toronto lost the most recent meeting at home by a humbling 110-89 margin on Jan. 16, it won the first two games rather handily. The 126 points scored the Raps scored in Philips Arena on Nov. 26 remains the highest output Atlanta has allowed this season.

Cleveland visits Washington in the opening game of ESPN’s doubleheader coverage. Not only is it a duel between All-Star point guards Kyrie Irving and John Wall, it’s also another opportunity for Paul Pierce to try and get under James’ skin, something he’s done quite capably over the years. The teams have split their two meetings thus far and square off at the Q in a potentially vital regular-season finale on April 15.

Houston visits Dallas to continue perhaps the league’s most underrated rivalry. Owner Mark Cuban has made no secret of his disdain for his in-state and division foe, not only stealing Chandler Parsons out from under them but also calling out GM Daryl Morey to spice things up. He’s undoubtedly relishing the fact that the Rockets comes in Dwight Howard-less, especially since his team has lost the last two meetings on the road. The Mavs also host the final regular-season showdown between the Southwest Division contenders on April 2.

The ESPN nightcap yields San Antonio at Golden State. Hopefully Popovich doesn’t feel the need to rest players given the extended break, but this is the second of a back-to-back for the Spurs, so you never know.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Six angles every NBA bettor should follow after the All-Star break
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Fans of the NBA will enjoy approximately 30 games worth of wagering opportunities per team once the Association returns from its annual All-Star festivities on Thursday, February 19.

Here are six storylines bettors should consider as we get set to enter the home stretch of the 2014-2015 regular season.

Will the bubble burst?

The Golden State Warriors owned a Western Conference-best 42-9 record as well as a profitable 31-19-1 mark against the spread. It’s been all sunshine and rainbows in the Bay Area as MVP frontrunner Steph Curry and dynamic two-way sidekick Klay Thompson have scorched the opposition for a combined average of almost 50 points per game.

But here’s the thing: Just like we witness every so often in regards to the stock market, at some point the bubble is going to burst. The average Golden State point spread has risen in every month this season, so the time is nearing when this franchise will be overvalued to the point where bettors should be able to turn a profit fading the Dubs. Check out this month-to-month breakdown of the 2014-2015 season:

October: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, average point spread of -4.5
November: 13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS, average point spread of -7.2
December: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS, average point spread of -7.82
January: 12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS, average point spread of -9.4
February: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, average point spread of -10.1

The return of Rondo

After swinging a blockbuster December deal with the Boston Celtics to acquire All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, the Dallas Mavericks looked prime to assume a position as one of the preeminent teams in the Western Conference. But that dream lasted barely a month before Rondo was knocked out of action with a facial injury.

Rondo’s impact on the Dallas lineup was more than noticeable, as the Mavericks went 11-5 (.687) through 16 games with the former Celtic on the floor as opposed to 25-14 (.641) without him. But the big difference came in Rondo’s ability to upgrade the Dallas defense.

With Rondo: 99.12 pts per game allowed, 203.3 total pts per game scored
Without Rondo: 102.26 pts per game allowed, 210.02 total pts per game scored

Mavericks games are averaging an additional 6.72 points per game scored without Rondo in the lineup, which means that bettors should keep a close eye on Dallas Unders once the nine-year veteran returns to action.

Clicking in Cleveland

Predictably, except for those in the media who assume team chemistry is something that should brew quicker than a cup of instant coffee, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have hit their championship stride. After opening the season an underwhelming 19-20 straight-up and pathetic 13-26 against the spread, the Cavs have gone streaking into the break with a 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS record.

The most noticeable improvement that’s taken place during Cleveland’s turnaround has come on the defensive side of the floor, where the Cavaliers have permitted the opposition to score 100 or more points in a game just three times over the club’s last 14 outings. Contrast that with Cleveland surrendering 100 or more points in 24 of 41 contests (58.5 percent) to open the season and you can see why this team is enjoying so much success as of late.

Hoops fans should circle February 26 on their respective calendars, as Steph Curry and the white hot Golden State Warriors pay a visit to Quicken Loans Arena.

Tank you very much

The Knicks (10-43), Timberwolves (11-42), Sixers (12-41) and Lakers (13-40) enter the All-Star break primed for a second-half tank job designed to acquire the most ping pong balls in the race for 6-foot-11, 270-pound Duke standout Jahlil Okafor.

In recent years, the ability to identify the NBA’s worst franchise has led to profitable late-season results. Three seasons ago, the Charlotte Bobcats went 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS over the team’s final 15 games of the season. During the 2012-2013 campaign, the Orlando Magic concluded their tanking with a 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark. And just last year, the Milwaukee Bucks went 1-9 SU and 3-6-1 ATS over their final 10 outings.

Moral of the story? Pay close attention to the NBA’s bottom-feeders during the final month of the season.

Wheeling and dealing

The NBA trade deadline arrives on Thursday, February 19 and while several teams will be looking to either stock up for the 2015 postseason or acquire assets for further down the road, keep a real close eye on the East-leading Atlanta Hawks.

At 43-11 SU and 37-17 ATS, the Hawks recently dealt rookie power forward Adreian Payne to Minnesota in exchange for a future first-round draft selection. The transaction means that Atlanta is now $4.9 million under the salary cap in addition to the fact that the club now has an open roster spot, which puts the Hawks in excellent position to swing a deal by the deadline.

If you thought this team was cooking with gas now, wait until they replace a rookie who appeared in just three games with an established veteran. The Hawks are currently listed at 6/1 to win the championship and 11/5 to win the Eastern Conference.

Stone-cold closers

At 36-17 and in third place in the Western Conference, it’s easy to overlook the Portland Trail Blazers, who conclude the majority of their games long after the good people living on the east coast have gone to bed.

But while teams like the Warriors (+7.3, first in NBA), Hawks (+4.6, second) and Mavericks (+3.6, third) have been manhandling the opposition during the first half of their respective contests, the Blazers enter the break as the league’s top second half squad, outscoring their opponents by an average of 4.2 points per game.

Those of you who dabble in either second half or live wagering would be wise to keep a close eye on the Blazers coming off the break, especially when Portland is playing at home (plus-7.4 margin of victory in second half, first in NBA).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DINERO
TALKS
The Antony Dinero handicapping brand is owned and operated by Tony Mejia, who is a veteran analyst and columnist in the online sports. industry.

NBA Trade Deadline Day props

The past three seasons have delivered fairly quiet NBA trade deadline days. Bear with me on this little history lesson, because it appears there’s money to be made.

Derek Fisher, Marcus Camby and Mehmet Okur were all dealt in ’12 as the final chapters of their careers dwindled. Nene was moved to Washington as the Wizards reached a turning point for the franchise, improving their on-floor IQ in coming off Nick Young and JaVale McGee.

In 2013, Rudy Gay was dealt in a Jan. 30 three-team swap that delivered him from Memphis to Toronto, so the biggest name moved on the actual Thursday cut-off day ended up being J.J. Redick, who Orlando dealt in a five-player deal that delivered a raw prospect named Tobias Harris.

Last year at this time, the big trade was Indiana’s acquisition of Evan Turner, the former No. 2 pick who was supposed to play x-factor in helping end Miami’s reign atop the Eastern Conference. Franchise fixture Danny Granger was moved to Philly. Things fell apart for the Pacers, but at the time, it was the most intriguing deal on a day that didn’t yield a true blockbuster.

The common thread has been teams preferring to play things conservatively in keeping their own assets as opposed to taking on someone else’s baggage. That’s been the prevailing sentiment from most GMs and chief decision-makers since the most recent CBA was signed late in 2011, delivering major changes in the luxury tax rules.

It’s led to uneventful trade deadline days, the kind that leave you muttering, “that was it?”

Still, in each of the past two seasons, there have been exactly 10 deadline deals. The 2012 deadline brought only eight. This little stroll down memory lane’s purpose was to point that out, because there is an intriguing prop available that’s worth exploring.

How many trades will happen on 2015 NBA trade deadline day? The over/under is set at 9.5.

They’ve got other individual player odds we’ll detail, but this one on the number of transactions ultimately agreed upon is beautiful in its simplicity. Although the last three years have delivered quiet deadline days, the number of moves still got into double-digits twice. I believe this year will be busier.

The call here is that we’ll see at least 10 moves on Feb. 19, from midnight ET until everything shakes out after the 3 p.m. deadline, for the third consecutive year. Not only does the line appear fair, but the feeling is there are a lot of teams willing to tweak.

The motives range from getting something for an asset that might leave for nothing come summer, to getting out from under the luxury tax to getting in or out of a playoff race. Some will be out to land a second-round chip for an affordable piece who’s out of the rotation. Some will be up for bringing in fresh blood in search of a new dynamic. Whatever the case, teams are going to tinker. There may even be a big name or two in the mix.

Bigger than Evan Turner? Dare to dream. Back the over on the prop. Here are a few thoughts on specific player props:

Will Phoenix trade Goran Dragic on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes +200, No -300

This would be your moneymaker, though the odds are likely to change given USA Today’s Sam Amick reporting on Tuesday that the Suns were notified by Dragic’s representation that he’s not interested in re-signing with them this summer. Since it would be too dicey to let him ride out the season and leave for nothing, Suns GM Ryan McDonough has to explore all options, including those willing to rent him, since he’s expressed a preference to end up in New York, L.A. (Lakers) or Miami. Those teams that seemingly lack the assets to get him straight up, so it’s going to take some creativity for all parties to wind up happy. Still, Dragic’s demand really forces Phoenix’s hand here.

Will Phoenix trade Isaiah Thomas on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes -140, No +100

The Suns have Eric Bledsoe locked up, so, while unlikely, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that they wouldn’t deal Thomas in the right deal even if they move Dragic. CSN’s A. Sherrod Blakely reports Boston is interested in Thomas.

Will Brooklyn trade Brook Lopez on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes +125, No -175

A number of teams would love to have him, but the Nets haven’t pulled the trigger despite shopping, holding out for better offers. Even though he’s inconsistent, 7-footers gifted with the offensive talents he possesses aren’t often available, so Brooklyn is biding its time and probably rightfully favored to hold on to him.

Will Denver trade Arron Afflalo on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes -175, No +125 It seems like this is more of a matter of where than if, so you should bite the bullet on the juice and cash in on the fact he’ll be dealt. The Magic added a young piece in Evan Fournier for him and Denver seems determined to the same. As a strong wing defender who isn’t an offensive liability, Afflalo is a hot commodity.

Will OKC trade Reggie Jackson on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes -250, No +175

He’s listed as the player most likely to be traded since Jackson is in a similar situation to Dragic, likely to leave for another opportunity in the offseason. The Thunder won’t want to lose him for nothing, but also may not want to deal him considering his importance to the second unit and the team’s championship aspirations. For that reason, playing contrarian and shooting for a payoff might be the best play here.

Will Utah trade Enes Kanter on the 2015 trade deadline day? Yes +110, No -150

Deseret News scribe Jody Genessy broke the news that Kanter has repeatedly asked the Jazz to move him, adding that his camp has recently “really turned up the Heat on Jazz management.” He’ll be a restricted free agent, so there’s no real urgency to trade him since his qualifying offer is a reasonable 7.9 million. If a team comes in with the right offer, there’s a chance he gets his wish, but chances are he’ll continue unhappily losing playing time to emerging second-year center Rudy Gobert.

Other names that don’t have odds available at Bovada.lv but could potentially be on the move include Brooklyn’s Kevin Garnett, New York’s Jose Calderon, Boston’s Tayshaun Prince, Brandon Bass and Marcus Thornton, Denver’s Wilson Chandler and Jameer Nelson, Miami’s Granger and Norris Cole, Indiana’s Chris Copeland and Sacramento’s Jason Thompson.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Thursday Hoops'

A brutal three week's of nine straight road games has San Antonio Spurs opening the second half in L.A where they will clash with Clippers. Ejected from the AT&T Center by the San Antonio Stock Show & Rodeo the Spurs opened this year's road trek with a loss in Toronto followed by a pair of victories at Indiana and Detroit. The 2-1 start to this year's Rodeo Tour moves Gregg Popovich's troops to 43-20 the past 63 during these excursions cashing 36 tickets over the span (36-25-2 ATS). As consistent as Spurs have been during these road swings the 'Rodeo Boys' are in for a battle when they hit Staples Center hardwood. The Clippers have an exceptionally good 21-7 home-court record (12-16 ATS) where they net a whopping 107.1 PPG. On the other side, Spurs are a pedestrian 14-12 on the road this season dropping 96.9 through the hoop (13-13 ATS). When handicapping this game a few betting nuggets to consider. Even without Blake Griffin on the floor the Clippers have won 2-of-3 averaging 111.0 points/game. Spurs have not been good betting choices of late posting a 2-7-1 ATS record. Spurs are just 2-7 ATS this campaign allowing 105 or more points/game, 1-4-2 ATS last 7 vs a Pacific opponent, 3-7 ATS with 4 or more days rest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of the Day: TNT NBA Thursday Doubleheader

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 211.5)

The Oklahoma City Thunder were thriving before the All-Star break with five wins in six games and aim to keep the momentum going with the resumption of play when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. The Thunder are a half—game behind the eighth-place Phoenix Suns while in pursuit of the Western Conference’s final playoff spot. Injuries to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led to an early 3-12 hole and Oklahoma City has been climbing out of it ever since.

The Mavericks are in fifth place in the West and expect to have point guard Rajon Rondo back on the floor after he missed six games due to fractures to his nasal and left orbital bones. “I’ve talked to a couple doctors and for the most part, pretty much said the same thing,” Rondo told reporters. “If I’m not having double vision and my eye hasn’t dropped two millimeters, then I’ll be fine.” Dallas closed strong before the break with six wins in eight games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Thunder as 5-point home favorites.

POWER RANKINGS: Mavs (-10.5) + Thunder (-7) + home court (-3) = Mavs -0.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Amare Stoudemire is the latest addition to a "win now" (Mavericks) roster. But it's difficult to see him being much of a difference maker. With so many people looking to get on the Thunder's bandwagon, it bears mentioning that they wouldn't even be a playoff team right now and they're likely stuck playing Golden State in the first round as 8th place seems like the ceiling." Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (36-19 SU, 26-27-2 ATS, 25-29-1 O/U): Dallas added injury prone forward Amar’e Stoudemire during the All-Star break and is hoping he can pump up its frontcourt bench scoring. Production has been minimal and the thought is if the club can keep Stoudemire fresh and healthy, he might be able to make a significant impact over the final two months of the regular season. Stoudemire, a six-time All-Star, averaged 12 points and 6.8 rebounds in 36 games with the New York Knicks this season before parting ways.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (28-25 SU, 24-27-2 ATS, 21-32 O/U): Point guard Russell Westbrook put on an epic performance in the All-Star Game with 41 points – one off Wilt Chamberlain’s record – to earn MVP honors and has been on a hot streak all month. He scored a career-high 48 points against the New Orleans Pelicans on Feb. 6 just two nights after matching his previous career high of 45 against the Pelicans and is averaging 31.2 points in six games. Westbrook is also averaging nine assists and 8.5 rebounds this month and delivered a triple-double against Orlando (25 points, 14 assists, 11 rebounds) on Feb. 2.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Mavericks last five vs. NBA Northwest.
* Mavericks are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. NBA Northwest.
* Mavericks are 17-5-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings in Oklahoma City.



San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (+2, 203)

The San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers both begin the final two months of the regular season a little lower in the standings than they expected to be at this point. The Spurs will try to leapfrog the Clippers for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference when they visit Los Angeles on Monday. The loaded West has pushed defending-champion San Antonio into seventh at the All-Star break despite wins in 11 of the last 14 games.

The Spurs began their nine-game rodeo road trip prior to the break and have taken two of the first against Eastern Conference teams. Things get tougher for the Spurs now, with trips to Golden State, Portland and Phoenix still to come before they finally play their next home game on Mar. 4. Los Angeles endured a similar excursion when the Grammy Awards took over their arena earlier this month but returned home strong with a win over the Houston Rockets before the break as center DeAndre Jordan took another step forward.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Clippers as 1-point home dogs, but that has been to +2.

POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-9) + Clippers (-11) + home court (-3) = Clippers -5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Despite being in seventh place in the Western Conference, the Spurs continue to attract plenty of love to repeat. Only the Warriors and Cavs have drawn more action to win it all. Despite being near the bottom of the league in terms of ATS record and also missing Blake Griffin, the Clippers are a dangerous team no one would want to match up against in the first round of the playoffs." Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE SPURS (34-19 SU, 23-28-2 ATS, 23-30 O/U): San Antonio has not dropped back-to-back games since Dec. 25 and 26 and is hoping for a stretch run similar to last season, when it went 20-1 from the All-Star break through the end of March. The Spurs made it through the break fully healthy and should have fresh legs down the stretch with none of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili averaging more than 30 minutes in the first 53 games. The break offered a good chance to rest for forward Kawhi Leonard, who struggled to 11-of-41 from the field in the first three games of the trip.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (35-19 SU, 22-32 ATS, 24-27-3 O/U): All-Star Blake Griffin missed the last three games after surgery to remove a staph infection from his elbow and is out indefinitely. Los Angeles dropped the first game with Griffin on the sidelines but Jordan lifted the team in the next two with totals of 46 points and 47 rebounds, giving him three 20-20 performances in the last six contests. Jordan’s late surge was overlooked when it came time to name injury replacements to the Western Conference All-Star team, but Chris Paul represented the Clippers with 15 assists off the bench in the showcase.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Pacific.
* Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Under is 11-4-2 in Clippers last 17 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer CL - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

The Champions League returns this week as the last 16 teams in Europe’s Premier club competition face three knockout rounds and a final to see who will be crowned champion. The current favourite is Bayern Munich at 5/2, just a shade ahead of the 11/4 holders Real Madrid. After Real come Barcelona, while Chelsea are the fourth favourites at 7/1. Bookies consider these to be the front-runners. Outsiders such as Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund are 14/1 and 33/1 respectively, while Manchester City are chalked up at 16/1.

Let's handicap UEFA Champions League: Round of 16.

The Banker: Real Madrid to win at Schalke 04 at 4/9

Schalke are a strange team: they have enough money to keep them somewhere near the top table of European football, qualifying for the Champions League and regularly getting out of their group, but are always so badly deficient in certain areas that they are often on the end of thrashings when they come up against the best. Schalke lost this fixture 6-1 last year, and also lost 5-0 at home to Chelsea on matchday 5 of the group stages this season. Schalke were rather fortunate to make it out of an easy group, and there is no reason Real Madrid cannot finish this tie in the first leg. The La Liga table-toppers had a stutter after the winter break in Spain, but got back on track with a 2-0 win over Deportivo La Coruña. At 4/9 they are a very safe bet.

The Solid Bet: PSG to draw with Chelsea at 9/4

This is a repeat of last year’s quarter-final, where Chelsea squeezed through on away goals thanks to Demba Ba scoring in the 88th minute of the second leg. Nearly a year on, Chelsea have progressed massively and sit seven points clear at the top of the Premier League, while PSG have stagnated, or arguably regressed. Despite having by far the biggest budget in French football, the Parisians sit third in Ligue 1. They managed to throw away a two-goal lead at home to lowly Caen in the last few minutes at the weekend. Both they and Chelsea are 9/5 shots at the Parc des Princes. While Chelsea may be the better value, a draw is a better result for them than for PSG, so it may be worth taking the stalemate at 9/4 Mourinho is an expert in digging results out of matches like these, and if the scores are level going into the last 15 minutes, you can bet Mourinho will tell his troops to sit back and take the draw.

The Outsider: Manchester City to beat Barcelona at 5/2

Being seven points behind Chelsea, this tie could be make-or-break for City’s season. They faced Barcelona at the same stage last season, and lost 2-0 at home, but only after Martin Demichelis had been sent off at 0-0. City put in a respectable performance to lose 2-1 in the Nou Camp. While they should not be favourites for this game, they are perhaps longer than they should be at 5/2. Barcelona’s La Liga form has been fantastic lately, while City’s league form has dipped, but this should not sway bettors too much. City’s season was transformed by their unlikely qualification away to Roma for the knockout round of this competition, and if they can recapture that kind of performance, they can give Barça a good game.

The First Goalscorer: Arjen Robben for Bayern Munich at Shakhtar Donetsk at 9/2

Arjen Robben has outscored every other Bayern Munich player in the Bundesliga this year with 14 goals, and he looks a good bet at 9/2 to open the scoring for the Bavarians away to Shakhtar Donetsk. Big summer signing Robert Lewandowski has scored just eight, and Robben has a magnificent record in the Champions League, including scoring the winner in the final for Bayern in 2013. Shakhtar will be hugely unsettled by the conflict in their native Eastern Ukraine - which they have had to vacate for the foreseeable future. Bayern should have few problems here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Jim Furyk Chokes Again
By Dan Daly

I want to thank Jim Furyk. Two weeks ago when I said, "Jim Furyk will blow at least one golf tournament this year. Actually…make that two. With zero wins." I didn't realize he would make it so easy on me. I mean the man didn't waste any time at all. His first start of the season led to his first 54-hole lead of the season which of course led to his first blown 54-hole lead of the season. It's amazing the man can finish an entire meal without needing the Heimlich maneuver.

People like to play the hypothetical game, "What would you do if you won the lottery?" My answer is very simple. I would hold on to the money until Furyk led a PGA Tour event through 54 holes, take the redeye to Vegas and bet every penny on him to lose said tournament. I would be the first person to ever double my lottery winnings in less than 24 hours.

Furyk managed to not close the deal at Pebble Beach for the NINTH consecutive time he's had at least a share of the 54-hole lead since 2010. I'm getting to the point now where I'm actually more impressed than anything else. I think Ron Burgundy summed it up best.

People say Tiger Woods has made the PGA Tour players more money than anyone else with the TV money that came with him…I respectfully disagree. I think at this point its Jim Furyk in a landslide with the amount of money he donates to players every Sunday.

If Jim Furyk was a lottery ticket he would only get the first five numbers right every time. Sure it's still a nice payday but he will never cash the check that matters.

If Jim Furyk was a football team he would be the Buffalo Bills of the 1990's. In fact I'm pretty sure if you ask him who the most clutch QB of all-time is, he would say Jim Kelly.

Ok, one more…

If Jim Furyk was a movie, he would be Titanic. Grossing a ton of money but everyone knows the ship crashes and sinks before they even start watching.

I will leave you with this one final thought regarding Furyk. Of the top FIFTY players to make the cut he was only one of two players to shoot over par on Sunday.

The Senior Tour and their 54-hole tournaments can't get here fast enough for Furyk…unfortunately for him though their majors are four rounds as well.

Congrats to Sneds though, one bogey in 72 holes is pretty frickin impressive. Glad to see he qualified for the Masters, big fan of his. Hopefully this is what he needed to get back to where he was prior to his rib injury.

Same for DJ, he may not have won but after "some time off" glad to see him playing so well so soon. Everything is just a tune up for his PGA Championship win coming this August to a TV near you.

But the biggest story of the week for me and many others was the heart break felt over the weekend by one John Patrick Daly. I guess it was appropriate that it came over Valentine's weekend though. I already hated Valentine's Day. I think it is a stupid corporate driven day that Hallmark created to sell some candy and a few more cards. After this weekend I really hate it now. The only way I can properly explain my feelings is of course in a Valentine's Day poem to JD.

It was just another Thursday that started off rather slow,
I had no idea you were going to go so low.
I logged on to the leaderboard and much to my surprise,
I saw the name John Daly beginning to rise.
A birdie here, a birdie there,
I knew you were hung-over but I didn't care.
With every shot, you made my heart skip a beat,
As you continued to knock it within 5 feet.
With an opening round of seven under you were off to a great start,
You were number two on the leaderboard but number one in my heart.
It was off to Hooter's to celebrate your opening round 65,
It was the first time in years I finally felt alive.
I know it was early but I thought it was meant to be,
I could already imagine the party with strippers and boos in the RV.
I couldn't wait to get up Friday and see what else you had in store,
Was it a one day tease or was there going to be an encore?
I screamed like a little girl when you took the lead,
But when you made a bogey on your eighth hole my heart began to bleed.
Another followed on ten, and then the twelfth hole as well,
Watching your name fall down the leaderboard was my own personal hell.
After a second round 72 I knew the dream of winning was done,
But even for that early brief moment on Friday the dream sure was fun.
When Valentine's Day rolled around the cut was still in sight,
But with a third round 73 you faded into the night.
At that moment, this tournament was dead to me,
But my man crush on you will always be.
Thanks for giving me even a glimmer of hope this Valentine's Day,
Your gift to me will always be watching you play.

Mark your calendars now folks…April 28, 2016. That is when JD is officially eligible for the Senior Tour and my man is going to dominate.

Finally, the Weekly Waggle is going to be taking periodic breaks the remainder of the year due to other obligations. I will be here for all the majors, both before and after, as well as the other bigger tournaments and of course any breaking stories that involve alleged drugs, hookers or fire hydrants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour stays West

Tournament: Northern Trust Open
Date: Feb. 19 - 22
Venue: Riviera Country Club
Location: Pacific Palisades, CA

The PGA finishes its “West Coast Swing” at Riviera Country Club before the players head east to Florida the following week. As usual for this time of the year, the field is fairly weak with just seven of the top-25 players from the OWGR teeing it up as nice additions from across the pond in No. 7 Sergio Garcia and No. 16 Victor Dubuisson make their first starts on U.S. soil this season.

Another big storyline is the mixture of different players that have won so far on the year, with no multiple victors on the season, as 10 different members attempt to change that this week. Bubba Watson will be trying to defend his title from last year in this tourney and will also be looking to be the first player in 2015 to have multiple wins after coming away with the trophy at the WGC-HSBC Champions back in November. Last year, he was able to card two consecutive 64’s on the weekend as he finished with a score of 15-under; just edging out Dustin Johnson, who was two shots back.

Let’s take a look at a few golfers who could be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Golfers to Watch:

Webb Simpson (+3500): Simpson has played in a mere four events this year, but has looked great in all of them, finishing in the top-10 twice and has shot a 70 or better in all but one of his rounds. In that time he has hit 75% of GIR, good enough for fifth-best on tour, as he also owns the best scoring average (68.93). Simpson had a poor showing here last season, finishing 70th, but was great in his previous two starts, getting 6th in 2013 and 15th back in 2010. Look for Simpson to be competitive each day and target his fifth career PGA win.

Charl Schwartzel (+3000): Schwartzel has played in the U.S. just twice so far this year with mixed results, but he has three top-15 finishes in five European Tour starts and has a nice track record at this event. He was four shots off Watson’s win last year as he netted a fifth-place finish with a score of 11-under after three straight 68’s to finish off the week. Last year, the South African ranked in the top-30 on tour in driving distance and scoring average and should get some nice numbers this week.

Bernd Wiesberger (+6000): Wiesberger has been tearing up the courses overseas with a top-six finish in each of his four events this year, shooting14-under or better each time out. He’s jumped all the way up to 36th in the OWGR with his stellar play as he is hitting 78.1% of GIR on the European Tour (11th on tour). He could also have some confidence in the United States after a nice 15th-place standing at the PGA Championship back in August where he shot 68-68-65 over the first three days before falling apart with a 74 on Sunday. He could be a sneaky pick that not many think of with his rare appearances in the States.

Cameron Tringale (+13000): Tringale hasn’t exactly had a great season thus far as he flip-flops between making the cut and heading home early from week to week. He will hope to pick up his year with a strong showing at a course where he has played some great golf over the past four seasons. He’s placed in the top-25 each of those years and is coming off his best finish (12th) last season when he shot 11-under on the par-5s over the week. Tringale won’t wow you with any specific part of his game, but has talent and should feel comfortable at Riviera this week.

Vaughn Taylor (250/1): Taylor has never been much of a force in his career, as his two PGA victories coming back in 2004 and 2005. In the past five seasons, he has managed just two top-10 finishes and has done worse in the FedEx Cup standings each successive year. With all that said, Taylor has seemed to find his stroke in the early going this season with top-20 finishes in each of his first two starts as he comes off a nice tie for 10th last week at Pebble Beach. Taylor could just as easily be cut after two rounds, but sometimes you need to look for a flash in the pan and run with it.

Northern Trust Open Betting Odds

Bubba Watson 10/1
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Jordan Spieth 10/1
Jimmy Walker 15/1
Brandt Snedeker 20/1
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Bill Haas 28/1
Jim Furyk 28/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Charl Schwartzel 30/1
Harris English 30/1
J.B. Holmes 30/1
Nick Watney 35/1
Webb Simpson 35/1
Keegan Bradley 40/1
Hunter Mahan 50/1
Graham Delaet 55/1
Bernd Wiesberger 60/1
Justin Thomas 60/1
Russell Henley 60/1
Ryan Moore 60/1
Sang-Moon Bae 60/1
Scott Stallings 60/1
Charles Howell III 65/1
Charlie Beljan 65/1
Gary Woodland 65/1
Marc Leishman 65/1
Brendon Todd 70/1
Kevin Chappell 70/1
Robert Streb 75/1
Brian Harman 80/1
Luke Donald 80/1
Pat Perez 80/1
Francesco Molinari 85/1
Brendan Steele 90/1
Jason Kokrak 90/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Alex Prugh 100/1
Cameron Tringale 100/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
Paul Casey 100/1
Shawn Stefani 110/1
Matt Jones 120/1
Tony Finau 120/1
Jhonattan Vegas 130/1
Kevin Na 130/1
Seung-Yul Noh 130/1
K.J. Choi 140/1
Rory Sabbatini 140/1
Brendon de Jonge 160/1
Ernie Els 160/1
John Senden 160/1
Kevin Streelman 160/1
Scott Piercy 160/1
Michael Putnam 170/1
Daniel Summerhays 175/1
Ben Martin 180/1
Brian Stuard 180/1
Bryce Molder 180/1
William McGirt 190/1
Andrew Putnam 200/1
Andrew Svoboda 200/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
Jeff Overton 200/1
Lucas Glover 200/1
George McNeill 210/1
Spencer Levin 210/1
Andres Gonzales 230/1
John Peterson 230/1
Adam Hadwin 250/1
Alex Cejka 250/1
Andres Romero 250/1
Billy Hurley III 250/1
Blayne Barber 250/1
Bo Van Pelt 250/1
Brian Davis 250/1
Carlos Ortiz 250/1
Chad Campbell 250/1
Chez Reavie 250/1
Chris Stroud 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
D.A. Points 250/1
Danny Lee 250/1
David Hearn 250/1
Derek Fathauer 250/1
Erik Compton 250/1
Fred Couples 250/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 250/1
Hudson Swafford 250/1
Jim Herman 250/1
John Huh 250/1
John Merrick 250/1
Justin Hicks 250/1
Kevin Kisner 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Luke Guthrie 250/1
Mark Wilson 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Matt Every 250/1
Michael Thompson 250/1
Morgan Hoffmann 250/1
Nick Taylor 250/1
Padraig Harrington 250/1
Retief Goosen 250/1
Robert Allenby 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 250/1
Scott Langley 250/1
Steven Bowditch 250/1
Tim Wilkinson 250/1
Troy Merritt 250/1
Vaughn Taylor 250/1
Zac Blair 250/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Daytona 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

For those of those us that were starving for any type of NASCAR action through a January with no testing, we sure had our cravings satisfied over the weekend with a wreck-filled Sprint Unlimited and Daytona 500 qualifying. Sure, we can all say we don’t like crashes and that only the feeble-minded are attracted to the sport because of it, but come on, we’ve been waiting for anything NASCAR for so long and they showed up with a literal bang.

What I learned the most over the weekend was that I didn’t need to learn that much because the cars ran almost exactly like last season. That was my biggest fear coming into the season without preseason testing -- the uncertainty. And while you can never be certain about any restrictor-plate racing because of the volatile nature, we can be certain there is nothing new that will throw us for a loop like tandem racing did a couple years ago.

We can almost say the racing is a continuation of 2014 and that was confirmed when we saw Joe Gibbs Racing finish first and third in the Sprint Unlimited and Hendrick Motorsports put two of their cars on the front row during Daytona 500 qualifying. Last season JGR won the Sprint Unlimited and both Budweiser Duel races as well as the first Talladega race while HMS won the Daytona 500 with Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Despite having a good read on who has the competitive advantage, it stills means very little in the grand scheme of things because things happen so fast at Daytona where one lap you’re leading and the next lap you’re involved in a 14-car pile up.

Because of that volatile nature, you don’t want to go crazy with wagers. Yes, we’re excited because racing is back, but you also have to be realistic and play the percentages. Next week in Atlanta following practices, the odds are in your favor because the top drivers will hold more true to their rating where you’ll start with maybe eight drivers that present the best value at the beginning of the week, and then you‘ll narrow it down to maybe four or five after final practices and then have a great shot at showing a profit for the week. For Daytona, even though we’re all excited about it being the first real race of the year, you should be betting only half of what your normal weekly NASCAR bankroll is.

There will be 43 drivers starting in Sunday’s race and 35 of them have a legitimate shot to win. Next week in Atlanta, there are only 15 drivers that a legitimate case can be made for. Translation: Daytona odds favor the sportsbooks, which is why most are willing to give double-digit odds to win on all of them. You won’t see a favorite as high as 10/1 odds on any other non-restrictor plate track like Earnhardt Jr. is this week at the Westgate SuperBook.

This week, we get some kind of NASCAR racing almost every day up until Sunday. There will be two practices on Wednesday, a practice Thursday and then two Budweiser Duel qualifying races later that night, which wagering will also be offered. Friday there are two more practices then final practice Saturday and then the Great American Race on Sunday. That’s quite a bit of action to take in for one week after being starved for so long.

My betting strategy is pretty simple here. I’m not betting it like a normal race, but the wagers will be spread across a few of the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski (12/1) in both matchups and odds to win. Because it’s Daytona, I’ll also throw in a couple of long shots like Greg Biffle at 35/1 and Paul Menard at 50/1. We’ve seen the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Aric Almirola cash in a odds of 50/1 of higher at Daytona in recent years, so it’s not a bad idea to take a shot with one or two drivers with long odds.

A driver I have had some good luck picking against in Daytona matchups over the years has been Jimmie Johnson. I actually had him to win the 2006 Daytona 500 as my main driver, and I was burned by going against him in 2013 when he swept the season, but I've had more success on the track betting against the No. 48. He's finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona races -- including the summer 400 mile event. There aren't too many matchups in NASCAR plate races where you can say there is value, but Johnson has proven to be a good bet against.

Overall, I'm sticking with the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski to win. To me, it just has a feel of being Keselowski's turn. He's in his prime right now, has a championship and knows how to run well with the plates on. He has three wins at Talladega, but has yet to win at Daytona, although he did have a career-best third-place in the 2014 Daytona 500. I wish I had something more concrete to state my case for Keselowski other than 'it just feels right' but that's kind of the guessing game you play when wagering the Daytona 500, which is why you shouldn't bet too much. It worked last year when I took Junior to win with my most weighted odds to win wager, and he hadn't won a plate race since 2004.

The bottom line is that there is really no bad bet to win the race until it losses. It's a crap shoot and I'm just hoping my toss of the dice comes up snake eyes with the No. 2.

Now the real key is finding a place to watch it with sound on. On Sunday, you’re going to have to state your case brilliantly to a sports book supervisor that the Super Bowl of NASCAR deserves to be on with sound more than the Cavaliers/Knicks NBA game or Ohio State/Michigan college hoops. It helps sway their opinion if several people ask showing that a large portion of the guests in the room want the race on with sound. It also helps if you show them some bet tickets on the race at their property.

For an event like this you don’t want to stay at home to watch it, you want to be around several others hootin’ and hollerin’ for your driver, but finding a spot was difficult so I just started going to the race itself with a few buddies. If I had to make a bet on the sports book most likely to have the race on with sound it would be at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sports book. I won’t be at Daytona this year, so I might try my luck with those two places on Sunday.

Top-5 Daytona 500 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (12/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
5) #16 Greg Biffle (35/1)

Does Sprint Unlimited win equate to 500 win?

Since 1979, there have been only five occasions between four drivers that someone has won the Unlimited and Daytona 500 in the same year. The first to do it was Bobby Allsion in 1982, then Bill Elliott in 1987, Dale Jarrett in 1996 and Jeff Gordon the next year in 1997. Jarrett would do it again in 2000 and no has done it since.

Sprint Unlimited Quote of the Night

Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano, who have a history on run-ins, had a late race incident and Harvick wasn’t too happy about Logano’s aggressive driving. “It was a helluva race but just really dumb driving there at the end. You’ve got to be aggressive but you’ve also got to use our head. You can’t just detach it lay it on the floor board.”

Does Duel win equate to 500 win?

You might think we’d have more drivers win one of the Budweiser Duels and Daytona 500 in the same year, but it’s only happened nine times since 1959. The last driver to accomplish the feat was Matt Kenseth in 2012. Before him it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004 and then Dale Earnhardt did it in 1998 -- the only year he ever won the Daytona 500. Cale Yarborough is the only driver ever to do it twice (1977 and 1984). The first driver to do it was Fireball Roberts in 1962. Others include Bill Elliott (1985), Bobby Allison (1988) and Sterling Marlin (1995).

Budweiser Duel Race No. 1 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (6/1)
2) #20 Matt Kenseth (6/1)
3) #27 Paul Menard (20/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
5) #1 Jamie McMurray (12/1)

Note: Jeff Gordon is on the Daytona 500 pole and has no need to mess around with his car and risk wrecking it by racing hard in this race. The same goes for Jimmie Johnson in the second race. Johnson will start on the front row along side Gordon on Sunday. If either wrecks and goes to a back-up car, they'll start from the rear. The only theory that makes Gordon a good play is that this is his last Budweiser Duel and he might want to let it all hang out. However, I'm thinking Gordon is bigger-picture thinking and is set on winning his first Daytona 500 since 2005 and he knows his chances will be diminished in a back-up. I don't think he'll win Sunday, but it would be a great story book ending and we've seen several instances of great stories somehow occuring in NASCAR.

Budweiser Duel Race No. 2 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
2) #19 Carl Edwards (9/2)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (12/1)
4) #3 Austin Dillon (12/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB SEC Analysis
By Jim Feist

The SEC has a bunch of teams loaded with talent, depth and athleticism. Kentucky won national championships in 1998 and 2012, Florida knocked on the door in 2000 getting to the title game against Michigan State, then won it all with back-to-back titles. Here's a look at some of college basketball's best teams in the SEC.

Kentucky: The Wildcats have another powerhouse young team for coach John Calipari, who likes to groom them for one year before they head off to the NBA. Kentucky has a powerful frontcourt of 6-11 freshman Karl-Anthony Towns (8.5 ppg, 6 rpg), 7-0 junior Willie Cauley-Stein and 7-foot sophomore Dakari Johnson (8 ppg, 5.5 rpg).

Even the backcourt is huge with 6-6 sophomore Aaron Harrison (11 ppg) and 6-6 freshman Devin Booker (10.6 ppg). They flattened Kansas (72-40) and North Carolina (84-70) by double digits, and showed clutch ability with back-to-back overtime wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Wildcats are 7-3-1 ATS on the road and 16-7 run under the total with great defense. Just bring on March: This talented, deep group is ready.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks are getting it done by running, Top 15 in the nation in scoring and assists behind a backcourt of 6-5 senior guard Rashad Madden and 6-6 junior Mike Qualls (15.7 ppg). Arkansas leads the SEC in five categories, including scoring (80) & offensive rebounds (13.7).

The frontcourt has a force in 6-11 sophomore Bobby Portis (17.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg), and Arkansas is one of five teams in the nation with two top 30 RPI road wins. The Razorbacks have been great at home and at covering against weak teams, 17-8 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. They play 5 of their final 8 games on the road, including a showdown at No. 1 Kentucky to end February.

Texas A&M: The Aggies are not an easy team to face with their attacking defense. They gave up just 70 points to No. 1 Kentucky in a loss -- in double overtime. They held Kentucky to 28% shooting. 6-7 junior guard Jalen Jones (13.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and 6-7 junior Danuel House (13.8 ppg) anchor the backcourt and lead the team in scoring, with 6-9 senior Kourtney Roberson manning the low post.

Junior guard Alex Caruso is a terrific playmaker averaging 5.5 assists per contest. The Aggies are a great bounce back team, 51-25 ATS following a loss. And that great defense really helps on the road, where the Aggies are 46-21 under the total.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have impressed with another strong offense behind the backcourt duo of junior guard Stephan Moody (15.5 ppg) and senior Jarvis Summers (13 ppg). Like Texas A&M, they took top-ranked Kentucky to overtime, an 89-86 loss. They held Kentucky to 42% shooting. Ole Miss is now 13-102 against Kentucky! Kentucky had its worst defensive game of the season. The Wildcats allowed Ole Miss to shoot 49 percent from the floor and 53 percent from 3-point range. Kentucky was also outscored in the paint 30-26 by Ole Miss. Ole Miss has been on a recent 10-4 run over the total, including 7-2 over on the road.

LSU: It’s no secret how the Tigers win: Like the days of Shaq or Big Baby Davis they have a huge frontcourt with 6-10 sophomore Jarrell Martin (16 ppg, 9 rpg) and 6-8 sophomore Jordan Mickey (16.7 ppg, 11 rpg). Once again they are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation.

The backcourt has size, too, with 6-6 sophomore Tim Quarterman (12 ppg) and 6-4 junior Keith Hornsby (12.6 ppg). The Tigers have been better on the road than last season, pulling off victories at Ole Miss, Florida and Vandy, the latter in overtime. They even have a non-conference win at West Virginia building an impressive resume before March. LSU is 20-7 over the total in SEC play.

Georgia: Let’s call them the “Not-Quite Bulldogs,” because they haven’t quite been there when stepping up. Georgia lost to Gonzaga by 14, lost at home to Arkansas by 4 and lost in double overtime at LSU. 6-8 senior Marcus Thornton (13.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is a force at center but missed a few games recently with a concussion.

The backcourt is fine with 6-3 junior Kenny Gaines (11 ppg) and 6-5 junior Charles Mann (11 ppg). They had a showdown at Kentucky and covered as a +18 dog, but lost by 11 after falling behind at the half, 42-27. Georgia committed 16 turnovers leading to 18 Kentucky points. The Bulldogs are an impressive 30-12-1 ATS against the SEC and 19-7 under the total after a spread cover.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five college basketball teams wearing Cinderella's shoe size
By JASON LOGAN

There’s just under a month to go before the field for the NCAA tournament shakes out on Selection Sunday. And it seems every year, dedicated college hoop heads are planning their bracket breakdown earlier and earlier.

Obviously, the ultimate goal is to find the next Cinderella team that will burn opposing brackets and make you a pretty penny during their March Madness run. In order to help us identify some possible suitors for the glass slipper in 2015, we looked back at recent Cinderella teams and what made them great, trying to find a current program cut from a similar cloth.

Here are five past tournament stunners and the teams that could be walking in their foot prints come tourney time:

2014 Dayton Flyers: A high-level mid-major program that found their form at this point in conference play and punched their ticket to the tournament as a No. 11 seed, taking down heavyweights Ohio State, Syracuse and Stanford before losing to Florida in the Elite Eight. The Flyers faced some notables in non-conference play and had tough test in an underrated Atlantic 10.

Their match: Staying inside the A-10, the UMass Minutemen are getting hot at the right time and currently sit on the NCAA bubble after putting together six straight wins heading into Wednesday’s road trip to Rhode Island. Massachusetts' defense has been much better during this run, giving up 63 points per game, and has been able to turn up the tempo on offense when need be – similar to the versatility Dayton showed last year. The Minutemen played the ninth toughest non-conference slate in the country, headlined by matchups with Boston College, Notre Dame, Florida State, LSU, Providence, BYU and Iona.

2014 Connecticut Huskies: Tough to call the national champions “Cinderellas”, but no one had UConn doing this much damage as a No. 7 seed last March. The Huskies were a storied program with tournament experience that finished 12-6 in AAC play and ranked 22nd in RPI at 0.6145. UConn was one of the better teams in the AAC but couldn’t get over the hump against the conference’s elite.

Their match: The Ohio State Buckeyes are pegged for a No. 8 seed in the tournament and have many of the qualities UConn had from last year. Ohio State has a strong defense and an offense that can pile on the points when need be. The Buckeyes have lost games to teams ahead of them in the Big Ten standings, but still roll out an RPI of 0.5869 – ranked 35th in the country. They’re on the edge of potential Cinderella stature, which is line the Huskies walked perfectly last March.

2013 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles: Florida Gulf Coast picked up plenty of fans with their Cinderella run in 2013, thanks in part to their high-flying antics and up-tempo offense. Fifteenth-seeded Florida Gulf Coast scored a favorable matchup versus methodical No. 2 Georgetown in the Round of 64, then out-worked San Diego State before losing to Florida in the Sweet 16. The Eagles were tournament ready as well, with a non-conference slate that included VCU, Duke, St. John’s and Iowa State that season.

Their match: The BYU Cougars run a similar pace as FGCU did in 2013, ranked as the sixth fastest tempo in college hoops. The Cougars average a Div. I-high 84.8 points per game and shoot an efficient 46.9 percent from the field, much like the Eagles in 2012-13. Brigham Young is on the bubble in the WCC, behind Gonzaga and St. Mary’s but just knocked off the Gaels by 22 points last week – part of a 5-1 SU stretch. And BYU had a tough non-conference calendar, ranked No. 16 in SOS, including a spot in the Maui Invitational facing San Diego State and Purdue, as well as matchups with Utah, Eastern Kentucky and Stanford. The Cougars are a team no one wants to play in the opening week of tournament play – if they make the cut Selection Sunday.

2012 Ohio Bobcats: People kind of forget about the Bobcats’ Cinderella run in the 2012 tournament, doing some serious damage as a No. 13 seed. Ohio knocked off No. 4 Michigan and then No. 12 South Florida before losing to No. 1 North Carolina in overtime in the Sweet 16. That 2012 Bobcats team was fueled by an aggressive defense that converted turnovers into easy buckets. Ohio forced opponents to cough up the ball 17.3 times per game. The Bobcats wobbled a bit down the stretch and won the MAC tournament as the No. 3 seed in the East.

Their match: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a similar team this season, forcing opponents to cough up the ball 16.4 times per game – 12th most in the country. They’re putting up 73.3 points per game and top the C-USA with just two conference losses. Louisiana Tech is projected to score a No. 14 seed and boasts an RPI of 0.5585 – very close to what Ohio (0.5672) back in 2012. The Bulldogs faced three major-conference opponents on the road earlier in the season, giving Temple, Syracuse and NC State a good fight in non-con play.

2011 Butler Bulldogs/VCU Rams: These two Cinderellas collided in the 2011 Final Four back before Butler joined the major-conference grind and Virginia Commonwealth leapt to the A-10. The No. 8 Bulldogs and No. 11 Rams were both built on defense, with Butler boasting more tournament experience after losing in the national title game to Duke the previous year (tough to tag them as a real Cinderella). The programs both had tremendous coaching, with Brad Stevens leading the Bulldogs (now coaching the Boston Celtics) and Shaka Smart (who has a long list of big-name suitors) on the sidelines for VCU.

Their match: The Wichita State Shockers find themselves more like Butler than VCU, having gone to the Final Four in 2013 and to the Sweet 16 last March. The Shockers are projected for a No. 7 seed, and have a smothering defense that allows just 56.1 points on 40.1 percent shooting per game. Wichita State has been challenged by Northern Iowa in the always-fun Missouri Valley Conference, the same way Cleveland State and Milwaukee pushed Butler in the Horizon League in 2010-11. Head coach Gregg Marshall is ranked among college hoops royalty right now and could take a big job if he wanted one. This WSU team is very, very "Butlery" right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB UConn at Memphis

**Connecticut at Memphis**

-- UConn (14-10 SU, 8-13 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak snapped in Saturday's 73-55 loss at SMU as a six-point underdog. Ryan Boatright had 19 points, five rebounds and a pair of steals, but he had more turnovers (four) than assists (three). Daniel Hamilton finished with 13 points, five boards and four assists, but he was only 3-of-11 from the field. The Huskies were beaten 35-28 on the boards, had more turnovers (15) than assists (10) and made only 34.0 percent (17-of-50) of their attempts from the field.

-- Memphis (15-10 SU, 10-12 ATS) has won 11 of its 15 home games while compiling a 7-5 spread record. However, Josh Pastern's team lost its last home game to Temple by a 61-60 count as a 3.5-point 'chalk' on Feb. 7.

-- Memphis has lost three of its last five games both SU and ATS, but it avoided a three-game losing streak by going down to Tampa on Saturday and emerging with a 75-48 win over South Fla. as a six-point road favorite. Shaq Goodwin was the catalyst with 18 points and nine rebounds. Avery Woodson was also in double figures with 11 points thanks to 3-of-6 shooting from 3-point range.

-- Memphis sophomore forward Austin Nichols will miss his third straight game tonight due to a sprained ankle. Nichols averages 13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.3 blocked shots per game.

--Boatright leads the Huskies in scoring (18.0 points per game), assists (4.4 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG). Hamilton is the only other UConn player scoring in double figures (10.2 PPG) and paces the team in rebounding (7.0 RPG).

-- Right next to Florida, Memphis, Nebraska and New Mexico, UConn is one of the nation's most disappointing teams. Unless Kevin Ollie's squad wins eight in a row before losing a close game to SMU or Cincinnati in the AAC Tournament finals, it has no shot at an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament to defend its crown. The Huskies have an RPI of 82 based on a 3-8 record against the Top 50 and a 4-9 mark versus the Top 100.

-- Memphis has an RPI of 95, going 1-7 against the Top 50 and a 1-8 vs. the Top 100. The only quality win for the Tigers came at Cincinnati (63-50) on Jan. 15.

-- The 'under' is 14-7 overall for Memphis, 8-3 in its home games. The Tigers have seen the 'under' cash in four consecutive contests and six of their last seven.

-- The 'under' is 10-9 overall for the Huskies, 3-1 in their last four outings. However, the 'over' has hit at a 6-2 clip in UConn's eight road assignments.

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Memphis favored by two.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Duke 92, North Carolina 90. In overtime. Best game of the season by far.

-- UNC's Marcus Paige got hammered at the buzzer and could've been going to the line to tie it. You don't and shouldn't get that call at Cameron. I think we might've heard a whistle in Chapel Hill.

-- Penn State improved to 8-1 ATS as an underdog when it took the cash in a 55-47 home loss to Wisconsin last night. The Badgers were 11-point road favorites.

-- Davidson star guard Jake Gibbs returned from a one-month absence (slight meniscus tear) to help his team to a 65-63 win at George Washington as a three-point road underdog. In just 14 minutes of playing time off the bench, Gibbs contributed 11 points, two rebounds and one assist. He knocked 3-of-5 attempts from downtown. The Wildcats, who have won four in a row both SU and ATS, improved to 18-6 SU, 17-4 ATS.

-- The nightmare season in Gainesville continued Wednesday when GatorZone.com's Chris Harry reported that star forward Dorian Finney-Smith had been suspended for the Vanderbilt game and "likely more [games]." I could be wrong but this smells like a three-gamer for most likely testing positive for marijuana. A pair of players at both Kansas St. and Boise St., including Wildcats leading scorer Marcus Foster, were issued similar suspensions recently. Without DFS, known as 'Doe-Doe' in Gainesville, the Gators finally won a close game when they slipped past Vandy on Devin Robinson's dunk with 2.1 seconds remaining. Kasey Hill's sweet look set Robinson up for the game-winning bucket.

-- Florida scored zero points in the last 8:33 of the first half.

-- THIS JUST IN: Rick Pitino is really pissed at suspended guard Chris Jones. Pitino suggested that his next team will be in Beligium if he doesn't tighten up. Again, the guess here is that this is a three-gamer. Louisville lost at Syracuse last night.

-- Boise State senior guard Derrick Marks carried his team to its ninth victory in 10 games last night when UNLV honored the late Jerry Tarkanian at Thomas & Mack. Marks ruined the party for 'Tark' by getting it done at crunch time on a night when his perimeter jumper wasn't there. Ahead two in the final minute, Marks got in the lane to score on a high-arching floater in traffic. Leon Rice's team improved to 9-4 in the Mountain West despite being without Anthony Drmic and other players due to injuries and suspensions.

-- Marks is absent from the most recent mock at NBADraft.net. I think he can play in The Association.

-- I didn't like the decisions Oklahoma St. Phil Forte made in the first half of last night's home loss to Iowa St. He forced it in the paint when he had nothing several times, resulting in rejections and a verbal undressing from Travis Ford after taking a timeout for the sole purpose of scolding his guard.

-- Purdue is on fire going into tonight's game at Indiana on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The Boilermakers have won six of their last seven games and have covered in seven straight.

-- Dayton was an 11-point home favorite to St. Joseph's early this morning. The Flyers are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'chalk.'

-- Worst loss Wednesday night? Minnesota went down at home to Northwestern, 72-66.

-- Nebraska is an 8.5-point underdog for tonight's game at Maryland. The Cornhuskers have lost eight of their nine road games while going 1-7-1 ATS.

-- Another disappointing team, UCLA, suffered a bad loss at Arizona State last night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Villanova at Marquette February 21, 2:30 EST

Wildcats (24-2, 18-7 ATS) picking up a seventh straight victory Monday defeating Seton Hall hit the road Saturday for a Big East tilt against Marquette Golden Eagles (11-14, 13-12 ATS). Far too much talent on this Villanova team that has set the pace in the Big East posting an 11-2 (10-3 ATS) record behind 74.7 points/game. Darrun Hilliard (14.3 PPG) the teams spark leads six players netting nine or more points/contest. On the other side it's been a rough campaign for Marquette who net 66.1 per/game. The Golden Eagles enter ridding a 1-8 (3-6 ATS) skid in Big East play giving them a 3-10 (5-8 ATS) mark within the conference. Villanova crushing Marquette 70-52 as 14 point favorites when they collided earlier will sweep the season series as they improve the current 4-0 SU/ATS stretch vs Golden Eagles and 9-3 run the past twelve meetings (7-4-1 ATS).


Auburn at Kentucky February 21, 7:00 EST

Top-ranked Wildcats' continue to roll along beating Tennessee 66-48 as 13.5 point road favorite Tuesday upping the mark to a school-record 26-0 (13-13 ATS) and 13-0 (5-8 ATS) in the SEC. Not difficult to make a case for Kentucky with it's second-ranked scoring defense (51.7 PPG) and top ranked field-goal defense (33.9%). Kentucky simply playing at a different level than everyone else will remain the only undefeated team in the country when all-said and done. Cali's Cats have owned this series (15-0, 9-5-1 ATS) including 7-0 (3-3-1 ATS) when running the hardwood at Rupp Arena. Auburn 0-6 (1-5 ATS) netting 60 or less in SEC play consider laying the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Nebraska lost five of last six games, losing last three by 13-10-12 points, scoring 50.7 ppg; Huskers are 0-4-2 as road underdogs, losing all six Big 14 road games by 11+ points. Maryland's last four wins were by six or less points; they're 2-4 as home favorites, 1-6 vs spread in last seven games overall. Underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in Maryland's conference games. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 6-17 against the spread.

Purdue shot 72% inside arc in 83-67 home win over Hoosiers in a game they never trailed, led by 11 at half. Boilers won six of last seven games (7-0 vs spread); they're 4-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-9-4 points, with three SU wins. Indiana won all six Big 14 home games, but is 1-3 as homne favorite, with three wins by three points. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in their conference home games. Big 14 home favorites of less than 5 points are 18-13 vs spread.

NC-Wilmington forced 20 turnovers (+9), nipped Delaware 74-73 Jan 8 at home, in game they trailed by 7 at half, shooting 6-22 from arc, 12-21 on foul line. Seahawks won seven of last nine games, are 4-2 on road in CAA, with three of four road wins by 7 or less points. Delaware is 3-2 in last five games, with all three wins by 5 or less points; they're 3-4 in their conference home games. CAA home teams are 9-12 in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Temple won its last seven games, six by 13+ points; they're 5-1 on AAC road, with only loss by 31 at Cincinnati. SMU won 60-55 at Temple Jan 14, game they trailed by 15 with 18:07 left. Owls are 2-2 as underdogs in AAC. SMU won 11 of last 12 games, is 6-1 as home favorite, with all six wins by 14+ points and only loss to Cincy; they're 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games. AAC home favorites of 6+ points are 13-11-1 vs spread.

UAB won all six of its conference home games, with five of six wins by 9+ points; they're 3-1 as home favorites but failed to cover last three in C-USA, after covering first ten league games. Western Kentucky lost last two games, by 4-5 points; they're 2-3 in last five games, 1-5 vs spread in last six, winning three of five C-USA road games, with losses by 13-5. Hilltoppers are holding teams to 28.4% from arc, best in league. C-USA home favorites of 5 or less points are 13-8 vs spread.

Ole Miss (-13) beat Mississippi State 79-73 Jan 28, outscoring Bulldogs 29-6 on foul line in game they trailed by 13 with 16:29 left; State was -10 in turnovers (16-6) but shot 64% inside arc. Rebels won six of last seven games, are 4-2 on SEC road, 2-0 as road favorites, winning away games by 14-20-1-7 points. State is 2-3 at home in SEC, 2-3 as home underdogs, losing home games by 14-6-4, with wins over Vandy/LSU. SEC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-10 vs spread.

UConn lost four of its last five road games, with lone win at Tulane by 9; Huskies won three of last four overall, are 0-2 as AAC underdogs, losing at SMU/Cincinnati. UConn swept Memphis LY by 10-5-19 points, with win in AAC tourney. Memphis split its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 2-3 as home favorites, with all four home wins by 12+ points. AAC home teams are 13-5-1 in games with spread of five or less points.

Cal-Davis beat Long Beach State 73-67 in OT Jan 10, rallying back from 11 down in second half, six down with 2:31 left; Aggies won five games in row, three by 6 or less points; they're 3-1 as an underdog this season. Long Beach lost its last three games, scoring 56 ppg; they covered once in last six games, are 3-5 as Big West favorites, 2-3 at home. Hawkins had 28 points in first meeting. Big West home faves are 17-13-2 vs spread.

Cal-Irvine (+1) won 78-72 at Hawai'i Jan 24, making 10-15 from arc in a game where they were -7 (17-10) in turnovers. Anteaters lost two of last three games, are 3-2 as home favorites, with only losses in Bren Center to Long Beach/Davis. Hawai'i won three of last four games, covering all four games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-1-15, with wins at Northridge, Cal Poly. Big West home teams are 10-7-1 in games where spread was 4 or less points.

Oregon State is 6-0 at home in Pac-12, allowing 52.2 ppg, winning twice as an underdog; home side won Beavers' last eight games, with OSU 2-4 in last six games overall. Utah won its last four games, all by 16+ points, covering three of them; Utes are 3-1 as road favorites- their only losses on road were at UCLA/Arizona. Utah is 8-3-1 vs spread overall in their conference games. Pac-12 home underdogs are 11-12 against the spread.

Rider (+4) won 56-53 at Quinnipiac Jan 15, in brickfest where teams hit 6-26 from arc. Bobcats shot 29.1% for night, still led by 5 with 12:29 to play. Rider won four in row, eight of last ten games; they're 3-2 as home favorites, winning last two home games in OT. Quinnipiac won three of last four games, is 3-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 21-8-6-5 points; three of their four road wins were by 4 or less points. MAAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-10 vs spread.

Mercer (-4.5) beat Chattanooga 75-72 in OT Jan 29, blowing its 15-point lead in second half, then rallying back from down 3 with 1:40 left. Bears won three of last four games, are 6-1 vs spread on SoCon road, covering both tries as an underdog. Mocs won four of last five games, are 2-3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 12-6-17-9-5-7 points, with loss to Wofford. SoCon home faves of less than 5 points are 6-10 vs spread.

Fort Wayne won its last six games, three of which were on road; they're 4-2 vs spread on Summit road, and beat Denver 69-53 (+1) first meeting Jan 8, which was their only win during 1-6 skid, Mastodons made 7-12 on arc in that game, Denver 12-26. Pioneers lost five of last six games, are 4-3 at home in Summit, all as favorites. Denver lost its last home games by total of five points. Summit League home favorites of less than five points are 6-10 vs spread.

 

[Tiznow214]

I hate the new covers.com scores and matchups layout ... just want to vent that out there. If anyone knows hoe to view the older layout please let me know. thanks in advance