Thursday 12/3/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spurs (15-4) at Grizzlies (11-8)

Date: December 03, 2015 9:30 PM EDT

Although they continue to be a work in progress offensively, the San Antonio Spurs have excelled on the other end while piling up the NBA's second-best record.

The visiting Spurs may have to find a way to contain Marc Gasol on Thursday night when they go after their 12th win in the past 14 meetings with the Memphis Grizzlies.

San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich has voiced his displeasure with his team's scoring woes during an eight-game stretch in which it has averaged just 93.9 points.

The Spurs shot 41.1 percent for the second straight game Wednesday, but bounced back from Monday's 92-89 loss at Chicago with a 95-70 rout of Milwaukee. Tim Duncan led the way with 16 points and 10 rebounds as San Antonio improved to 10-0 at home.

Kawhi Leonard, however, had a season-low 13 points on 3-of-12 shooting after scoring 24.4 per game while shooting 54.8 percent from the field in his previous five. LaMarcus Aldridge also struggled with six points on 3-of-10 shooting after scoring 21 against the Bulls.

San Antonio, though, continues to shine with an 88.8 defensive scoring average that easily leads the NBA. It limited the Bucks to a season low point total and shooting percentage (33.8).

"It's coming around. We continue to improve (defensively),' Duncan said. 'It's what we want to do. A great effort all around. Pop is still on us about the mistakes we made, but you look up at the scoreboard and they score 70 in a night."

The Spurs (15-4) held Memphis (11-8) to 43.2 percent shooting - including 1 of 9 from 3-point range - in a 92-82 home win Nov. 21. Gasol finished with just eight points on 3-of-9 shooting as the Grizzlies lost for the 11th time in the past 13 meetings in this series, including a four-game sweep in the 2013 Western Conference finals.

The All-Star center had averaged 11.2 points over his previous five games before breaking out with a career-high 38 points and a season-high 13 rebounds in Tuesday's 113-104 win at New Orleans. He also went a career-best 16 for 16 from the free-throw line.

"It's been a tough week to 10 days as far as me playing and I wanted to take a different approach to the game and it worked," Gasol said. "I imposed a little bit my will. ... Instead of trying to get somebody else going or trying to read and see what was in front of me, I just went ahead and tried to be a little more aggressive."

Mike Conley had 11 points Tuesday after averaging 20.0 over his previous eight games. He's scored 27.8 while hitting 10 for 16 from long range in his last four at home versus San Antonio.

The Grizzlies, who have won five of their last six at home, have found the defensive form that has keyed their success in recent seasons. They're allowing an average of 95.6 points over their last seven games after giving up 102.2 in their first 12.

'We cannot keep trading baskets because we're just not that good at it,' Gasol said.

Memphis snapped a five-game home losing streak to the Spurs that included the playoffs with a 95-87 victory Dec. 30 in the most recent matchup at the FedExForum.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Celtics (10-8) at Kings (7-12)

Date: December 03, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

The Boston Celtics have been long rumored to have an interest in acquiring DeMarcus Cousins.

With performances like he had in his return to the Sacramento Kings, it's easy to see why.

The Kings will try to continue their success this season with Cousins in the lineup Thursday night when they take on Boston in Mexico City as part of the league's Global Games events.

Trade rumors began to swirl concerning Boston's interest in Cousins ahead of their most recent meeting last February. General manager Danny Ainge was then reportedly pushing to get a deal done during the offseason after it seemed coach George Karl and Cousins couldn't co-exist.

The Celtics weren't able to pull it off and the All-Star center remains with Sacramento, though he, Rajon Rondo and Karl are still trying to work out their differences. Cousins had a verbal tirade on his coach earlier in the season, but the three had a productive meeting near the end of a 2-3 trip.

Cousins missed the finale of that road swing and the next two games with a lower back strain before finishing with 31 points, nine rebounds and six assists in Monday's 112-98 win over Dallas. Rondo had 21 points and Rudy Gay added 20 as Sacramento avoided a third straight loss.

Cousins is averaging career highs of 28.2 points while leading the Kings to a 6-5 record in the games he's played. They haven't been the same without him, dropping seven of eight.

"I hate being out and I hate having to sit to watch my team going to battle without me when you know you could be in helping them,' Cousins said. 'It's a terrible feeling to be sitting out. But you have to put those games behind you and move forward.'

Rondo hopes to put up a similar performance to the first time he faced Celtics after getting traded to Dallas in the middle of last season. The All-Star, who spent his first eight-plus seasons in Boston, had 29 points and hit 5 of 7 from 3-point range in Dallas' road win Jan. 2.

Sacramento and Boston have split the season series in each of the past three seasons, with the home team winning each time. That won't be the deciding factor at Mexico City Arena.

"We're thrilled to participate in this game here," Celtics coach Brad Stevens told the team's official website. "As much as we're focused on this task and focused on the game itself, I think we recognize how blessed we are to get a chance to play all around the world, and certainly here in Mexico City."

Stevens' club is seeking some consistency on the defensive end after splitting the Florida portion of its five-game trip with Monday's 105-95 win at Miami. The Celtics have limited opponents to an average of 89.7 points in 10 victories but have surrendered 107.3 in eight defeats.

Avery Bradley led six double-digit scorers with 25 points Monday, while Jared Sullinger added 17. Isaiah Thomas scored 16 with nine assists but shot 5 of 17 from the field.

Thomas, averaging a team-high 20.8 points, has scored a combined 43 in his two trips back to Sacramento after spending his first three seasons with the Kings.

Sullinger has only played in two of the past four meetings but has totaled 51 points and 27 boards.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pacers (12-5) at Trail Blazers (7-12)

Date: December 03, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

When Portland beat Indiana for the second time in 10 days last December, it became one of four teams to start the season with a winning percentage of .750 or greater and put the finishing touches on the season-worst eight-game losing streak of a team in pieces.

When the Pacers visit Portland on Thursday night, roles will be reversed with rejuvenated Indiana seeking a seventh straight win and a share of first place, while the Trail Blazers will try to avoid a three-game skid and the Northwest Division cellar.

Portland improved to 18-6 and dropped the Pacers to 7-17 on Dec. 13 with a 95-85 win in Indiana following an 88-82 home win Dec. 4. The Blazers have won four of the last five meetings and the previous six at home, but this Pacers team is leaving all that in the dust as they make their way up the West Coast.

Indiana (12-5), playing the third of a four-game trip, can match its best winning streak from last season after beginning the swing with a Staples Center sweep following Wednesday's 103-91 win over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Pacers are also after their first five-game road streak since closing 2011-12 with one.

Paul George had 31 points and 10 rebounds for what was actually his worst offensive game in his last four. He's averaging 35.8 points and shooting 50.6 percent in that time, despite going 9 of 23 against the Clippers.

"This is definitely the best stretch I've had," he said. "I really put a lot of work in this summer to be ready night in and night out."

A shooting night like that is holding up just fine with what's happening on the other end. The Pacers have held their last three opponents to 37.0 percent, and their only losses following a 0-3 start were by four points at Cleveland and one at Chicago. Their scoring differential of 10.6 in that span trails only Golden State.

"We know what we're doing with this group," coach Frank Vogel told the team's official website. "We are still finding our way a little bit. We are just playing with confidence."

The Trail Blazers (7-12) suffered a sweep in a back-to-back set to start the week, falling 115-112 in overtime to Dallas on Tuesday at home a night after a 102-87 loss at the Clippers. The latest defeat came after leading 96-89 with 1:40 remaining.

"That's a tough loss to swallow. This is one we have to get," said Meyers Leonard after scoring a season-high 23 points. "We should have had this win flat-out tonight, however we didn't. Now we need to study the film and find out what we can do better, especially in late-game situations."

After starting 4-2 with a new-look lineup, the reality of being without LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews has set in over a 3-10 span.

Damian Lillard had 25 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds against the Mavericks, giving him five double-doubles after never topping seven in 82 games over each of his first three seasons.

However, he was 10 of 24 and is averaging 20.4 shots per game - easily a career high and more than everyone in the league other than James Harden. The result is the worst shooting percentage of his career (41.9) and he's also turning the ball over more (3.5).

To be fair, he's not getting much help from anyone else the Blazers rely on. No. 2 scorer C.J. McCollum has been held to 11.5 points on 8-of-36 shooting in the last two games, while No. 3 scorer Al-Farouq Aminu is at 4.3 and 6 of 32 in his last four.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Warriors or 76ers: Which team is the better NBA betting option?
By HARVARD SPORTS ANALYSIS COLLECTIVE

With the Philadelphia 76ers picking up their first win of the season last night, the mind-boggling question of whether the 76ers would win or the Warriors lose first was answered. Still, it is fun to think how these two teams are so radically different (unless you are a Sixers fan).

We have had one of the worst starts ever to a season and the best start ever occur in the same season. Talk about a league of have and have-nots. And it’s not like these teams have gotten unlucky/lucky. People are seriously talking about them as the worst and best teams of all time. With that in mind, we thought it might be fun to compare their starts from a betting standpoint, and see what type of insights we can gleam.

Let us start with the 76ers. Before Tuesday, they had never been favored in a game this season. And even at home against the dreadful Lakers, they were still only projected to win by one point.

Overall, throughout their first 19 games of the season, they have been spotted, on average, 9.8 points. To put that in context, last year the Sixers only lost by just under nine points. Assuming that they’ve played a schedule that is similar in difficulty to what they played last year (not an unreasonable assumption) we can say that Las Vegas has so far thought the Sixers would be nearly a point per game worse than they were last year.

In case you were wondering, the team with the worst point differential in the league last year was the Lakers, the same team the Sixers just beat - and they only had a point differential of -9.3.

The good news for Sixers fans is that they seem to be playing at a slightly higher level than oddsmakers suggested, as they are 11-8 against the spread. At the same time, this might also suggest, if we believe that betting lines are an accurate representation of team skill and deviations from them are just due to randomness, that the Sixers have actually been getting lucky and playing better than they actually are so far this season – yikes! If the Sixers’ true talent level is even lower than the on-court product, it won’t be an enjoyable rest of the season.

Although the Sixers have a positive record against the spread, suggesting they’ve outperformed expectations, they actually have a point differential of -10.8. Given that they were projected to lose by 9.8, this means they have actually lost by more than they were supposed to, therefore we can also say they have underperformed expectations.

So which one is it? How do we reconcile these two stats? There’s no clear answer, but one that would make sense is that Sixers have had mostly close games but have had a few where they just got blown out, like their 28-point loss to Utah or the 25-point loss to Charlotte.

A final interesting piece is that the Sixers are on a six-game winning streak against the spread. There’s no evidence that this is statistically significant - given that there are 30 teams, the odds of one of them being on a six-game winning ATS streak by pure randomness alone isn’t that low.

But it’s also tempting to say that the betting public, with all the talk of Philadelphia going for the worst record of all time, has been underestimating the 76ers the last week or so. If they’re on pace for the worst record of all time, then perhaps people might overreact to that and think, “No way that the worst team of all time is projected to lose only by 7.5 to Minnesota. The worst team of all time has to lose by at least double digits.”

Again, I have no proof to support this hypothesis, and perhaps I am just making up a story to fit the data. But it’s interesting to think about.

Onto more positive things, let us talk about the Warriors. At 19-0 SU, they haven’t lost a game, although their last outing against Utah was rather close. As bad as Philadelphia has been, the Warriors have been just as good.

They’ve been projected to beat teams by 10.3 points a game and have massively outperformed that, with an average margin of victory of over 15 points. No other NBA team is in double digits, and last year’s version of the Warriors only managed a 10.10 average margin of victory. Perhaps this hot start is not sustainable, but so far the Warriors have been absolutely ridiculous.

To no surprise, this larger-than-expected margin of victory has translated into a great ATS record for the Warriors, who are currently 13-6 ATS. Again, going back to the analogy of the Warriors being expected to be just as good as the Sixers are bad, that’s not really accurate.

While that is what we expected, the Warriors have actually been even better than the Sixers are bad. Imagine a Sixers team that is 50 percent worse than it is now. You can’t. That’s how good the Warriors have been.

Below, we have constructed a table neatly summarizing a few of the key statistics for each team.

Have the Warriors been as Good as the Sixers have been Bad?

Record Record ATS Average Spread Actual Point Diff. Over/Under Record

Golden State 19 - 0 / 13 - 6 / -10.26 / 15.32 / 10 - 9

Philadelphia 1 - 18 / 11 - 8 / 9.84 / -10.79 / 9 -10

Finally, one question: what would the line be if these two teams were to play today? If we think about it in the sense that the Warriors are favored by 10 points over average teams, and the Sixers are projected to lose by also around 10 points to average teams, then one could argue that the line would be Golden State -20. This relies on the assumptions that, so far, both teams have played a schedule of average difficulty, or at least comparable difficulty, and that the points would add up linearly.

Looking at previous lines, the biggest favorite the Warriors have been was against Denver, when they were -17.5. When they went to Denver they were only 12.5-point favorites, suggesting the true point disparity on a neutral court would be around 15. Are the Sixers five points worse than the Nuggets?

From the other end, the Sixers were the largest underdogs when they were at San Antonio, when they were +16. Take away two or so points for home court, are the Warriors six points better than San Antonio? Only time will tell.

In case you were wondering, when they met last year the Warriors were -15.5 when the game was in Philadelphia and -17.5 when they were at home. If Philadelphia is just as bad they were last year and the Warriors are even better, could the line creep above 20 when they meet in Oracle Arena on March 27? That is yet to be seen, but I don’t envy the bookmaker who has to set that line one bit.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Thursday, December 3 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Interesting that the Boston Celtics are in Sacramento on Thursday because it's well known around the NBA that Celtics boss Danny Ainge covets Kings star center DeMarcus Cousins. And if there's one team that might convince the Kings to part with Cousins it could be Boston as it has some good young talent on the roster currently as well as potentially four first-round picks in the 2016 draft, including Brooklyn's unprotected pick that should be in the Top 3. Cousins and Coach George Karl haven't exactly been on the same page, although things have calmed down for now. But if the franchise does ever put Cousins on the market, my bet is he lands in Boston.


Thunder at Heat (+2.5, 199.5)

This is the NBA on TNT doubleheader opener -- starting at 7 p.m. ET this week -- and will have live betting at sportsbooks. Miami lost 105-95 at home to Boston on Monday, falling to 1-4 when allowing opponents to score at least 100 points compared to 9-2 when they don't. Dwyane Wade scored a season-high 30 for the Heat. Miami starting forward Luol Deng missed a third straight game with a hamstring injury and is 50-50 for this game. The Thunder's four-game winning streak ended on Atlanta on Monday, 106-100. It was their first loss this season with Kevin Durant in the lineup. Oklahoma City won both meetings last season with each very low scoring. OKC has won two straight in Miami overall.

Key trends: OKC is 1-5 against the spread in its past six after a loss. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their past seven following a loss. The "over/under" has gone under in eight of Miami's past nine vs. the West.

Early lean: Heat and under.

Nuggets at Raptors (-9.5, 199.5)

Both teams played Wednesday night, with Denver in Chicago -- likely again without starting guard Gary Harris (concussion) -- and Toronto in Atlanta. These teams have a link in the front office as in the spring of 2013, Nuggets general manager Masaj Ujiri left that franchise to join Toronto in the same position. He was an assistant general manager with the Raptors before taking the job as Denver's GM. The Raptors swept both games last year against Denver and have won three straight overall in the series.

Key trends: Toronto is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 vs. the West. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Raptors and over.

Magic at Jazz (-5.5, 191)

Orlando won a season-high fourth straight Tuesday, 96-93 in Minnesota. Nikola Vucevic had 18 points, 12 rebounds and four assists. It's the franchise's first winning streak that long since December 2012. Scott Skiles for Coach of the Year! Utah's two-game winning streak ended in a106-103 home loss to the Warriors on Monday, a game the Jazz certainly could have won and had a late shot to do so but Rodney Hood missed a 3-pointer. The Jazz are now 0-6 when allowing at least 100 points. Utah lost 102-93 at Orlando on Nov. 13 in the second of a back-to-back for the Jazz. Utah was without two starters in the game as Hood was inactive and Rudy Gobert did not dress. Orlando was led by Evan Fournier's 21 points, while Tobias Harris had 19 points and 13 rebounds. The Magic jumped out to a 16-2 lead in the first four minutes as the Jazz were clearly gassed.

Key trends: The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their past four Thursday games. Utah is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 following a loss. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-1 in Utah's past six.

Early lean: Under, under, under!

Spurs at Grizzlies (+2.5, 188)

This is the TNT nightcap and will have live betting. San Antonio was home to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Memphis won in New Orleans 113-104 on Tuesday behind a career-high 38 points from Marc Gasol (also had 13 boards). He hadn't scored more than 15 points in his previous five games. San Antonio beat the visiting Grizzlies 92-82 on Nov. 21 to snap Memphis' four-game winning streak at the time. The Grizzlies' only lead came on Tony Allen's 20-foot jumper to open the game. LaMarcus Aldridge and Zach Randolph missed the game due to injury. They are both healthy now.

Key trends: The Spurs are 11-4 ATS in the past 15 meetings. The over is 9-4 in the previous 13.

Early lean: Grizzlies as I expect the Spurs to rest a guy or two here.

Pacers at Trail Blazers (+1.5, 201)

Indiana was at the L.A. Clippers on Wednesday. Portland wasn't expecting to have star point guard Damian Lillard on Tuesday in the second of a back-to-back due to an illness, but he played in a 115-112 overtime loss to Dallas. Lillard finished with 25 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds but missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Blazers led by seven with 1:40 left. Portland won both of its games against Indiana in 2014-15, the team's first season sweep over the Pacers since 2009-10. The Trail Blazers haven't won three consecutive games against Indiana since taking five in a row from 2008-09 to 2010-11. Portland has won six in a row at home in the series. In two games against Indiana last season, Lillard averaged a team-high 20.5 points.

Key trends: Indiana is 2-6 ATS in its past eight in the second of a back-to-back. The Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their past seven vs. the East. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

Celtics vs. Kings (pick'em, 210)

This game is in Mexico City (Kings are home team). Boston won in Miami by 10 on Monday behind 25 points from Avery Bradley as all five Celtics starters scored in double figures. Nine of the Celtics' 10 wins have been by at least 10 points this season. Sacramento ended a two-game slide with a 112-98 home win over Dallas on Monday. Cousins returned after missing three games with a lower-back strain and had 31 points, nine rebounds and six assists. The teams split last season, each winning pretty comfortably at home. The Kings' 109-101 victory was right after last season's All-Star break and was George Karl's coaching debut with the team. Sacramento has won four in a row at home over Boston.

Key trends: Boston has covered only two of its past nine Thursday games. The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their past five following a win of more than 10 points. The over is 15-6 in the Kings' past 21 vs. the East.

Early lean: Kings and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Thunder won four of last five games (1-3AF). Miami won four of its last six games (0-0HU).
-- Toronto won five of its last six games (3-3HF).
-- Magic won their last four games (1-1AU).
-- Spurs won six of their last seven games (5-3AF). Memphis won four of its last five games (0-1HU).
-- Celtics won three of their last four games (1-3AF). Kings won three of last four home games (1-3 last four HU).
-- Indiana won its last five games (1-1AF).

Cold teams
-- Denver lost its last seven games (0-6 vs spread in last six0.
-- Utah lost six of its last ten games (2-3HF).
-- Portland lost three of its last four games (2-2HU).

Series records
-- Thunder won three of last four games with Miami.
-- Raptors won four of last five games with Denver.
-- Jazz won eight of last ten games with Orlando.
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games with Memphis.
-- Home side won last seven Boston-Sacramento games.
-- Pacers lost four of last five games with Portland.

Totals
-- Five of last six Okahoma City games stayed under.
-- Last four Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Boston games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Indiana games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NBA One-Point-Loss'

After coming up one point short in an NBA regular season contest teams should have a chip on their shoulder and come out looking to make a statement next time they hit the court.

In testing this theory, surprisingly teams do not always have the ability to bounce back after the aggravating event. In fact, since 2012 teams are just 65-94 straight-up, 65-90-4 against the betting line after being nipped by one point exact on the scoreboard.

Breaking down those numbers further points to a consistent long term patterns that tells us to 'Play-On' any favorite running the hardwood against a team off a one point exact loss. That's because it will result in a money-making 64.4% hit rate as chalks are 56-29-2 ATS split between 40-20-2 ATS on home court, 16-9 ATS wearing road jersey's.

Although, a winning percentage of 60.0 is considered major success, we can improve the hit rate to a whopping 81.8% by 'Playing-On' any home chalk of 4.5 to 6.0 points taking on a road team off a one point exact loss the previous effort (18-3-1 ATS) and to a lesser extent, 69.2% hit rate backing a road chalk of 4.5 to 6.0 vs a home team off its demoralizing effort (9-4 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NBA Favorite off blowout loss'

NBA handicapping being very situational it's always prudent to have in your handicapping tool box a list of 'What-2-Watch-4'. One situation that has proven profitable is to 'Play-On' a regular season favorite after a blowout loss (-15 or more points). The logic is pretty simple. We have a team who just got taken behind the woodshed and is still considered good enough to be favored. Not only are these teams typically going to be good, they're also going to be motivated following the beat-down.

Since 2012, favorites in this situation have cashed at a 53.8% clip (198-160-10 ATS). Not exactly the Midas Touch of NBA betting but a winner none the less. However, we can improve the hit rate to 60.6% (66-40-3 ATS) if we focus solely on a road favorite off a blowout loss.

Perhaps the best situation to keep an eye out for is to 'Play-On' a regular season road favorite off a -15 or more point loss playing a conference opponent off a win. It won't pop up often but given the hit rate paying attention can pay off handsomely. The situation has certainly passed the test of time, since 2010 these motivated road favorites have been consistent winners cashing 68.6% of tickets (24-11 ATS) including a sparkling 15-5 ATS (75.0%) streak against the betting line since 2012.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bears (1-5) at Sooners (4-0)

Date: December 03, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Oklahoma has one of the nation's top players in Buddy Hield, but his supporting cast is hardly devoid of talent.

The All-American looks to rebound from his first poor outing, and the sixth-ranked Sooners should also be able to showcase some others Thursday night against a Central Arkansas squad that hasn't won a road game in almost two years.

Hield averaged 25.3 points and 56.8 percent from the field while going 11 of 19 from 3-point range in the first three games. He struggled Sunday, going 5 of 16 from the floor, missing both 3s and scoring 12 points in a 65-48 win over Wisconsin.

That didn't prove to be much of a problem with fellow senior Ryan Spangler recording 20 points and 14 rebounds, Isaiah Cousins scoring 14 and the Sooners (4-0) putting forth another strong defensive effort, holding the rebuilding Badgers to 23.5 percent shooting.

'It's a game we'll grow from,' coach Lon Kruger said. 'We know Buddy is going to bounce back, at least most of the nights. I know he feels good about other guys stepping up there when they do, too. That's the way he thinks about it.'

Spangler averages 13 points and a team-high 10 boards while Cousins is scoring 12.5 per contest and shooting 45.5 percent. Both are in their third seasons as full-time starters and capable of picking up the slack when Hield has an off-night.

Fellow starter Jordan Woodard is averaging 9.5 points and five other Sooners are scoring at least 3.0 per contest.

"It's huge anytime you can have different weapons on the floor," Kruger said.

It's defense, though, that remains the Sooners' calling card.

They lead the nation in defensive field-goal percentage at 31.5, are in the top 10 against the 3-pointer at 23.2 percent and have held their last three opponents to an average of 55.7 points.

"Our talk on the court and positioning continues to get better," Kruger said. "I like where we're at. The guys know how tough the road is and we have to continue to work and get better every day."

The road likely won't be difficult Wednesday, and Oklahoma should have the opportunity to fine-tune some things while trying to go 5-0 for the first time since the 2008-09 team won its first 12. Oklahoma held on for a 76-73 home victory over Central Arkansas (1-5) in the only previous meeting Dec. 30, 2010, but figures to have an easier time Thursday.

The Bears' 25-game road losing streak is the longest active one in the nation and dates to a 76-75 victory over McNeese State on Jan. 30, 2014.

Central Arkansas is allowing averages of 85.0 points and 52.9 percent shooting. However, it showed some grit while rallying from a 10-point deficit before falling 79-73 at Arkansas-Little Rock on Tuesday.

Jordan Howard scored 22 as the Bears shot 48.9 percent but committed a season-high 19 turnovers.

"We're growing," coach Russ Pennell told the school's official website. "We're a better team than we've been. But like I told them in the locker room, we can't be satisfied with playing people close.

"Because it's still a loss and it still stinks, but we have to learn from it and get better."

Howard averages a team-leading 16.8 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wildcats (7-0) at Bruins (4-3)

Date: December 03, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

Playing on its own floor, top-ranked Kentucky was able to get by a lesser challenger despite being without its point guard.

The team's first true road game will be more difficult if Tyler Ulis remains sidelined Thursday night when the Wildcats face a UCLA squad looking to avenge last year's lopsided meeting.

Kentucky (7-0) was without Ulis for Monday's 75-63 home win against Illinois State due to a hyperextended right elbow, and he may be out again.

Isaiah Briscoe scored a team-high 18 but the team seemed out of sync sans Ulis, who is averaging 13.2 points and 4.3 assists. The Wildcats recorded a season-low eight assists and committed 15 turnovers.

Ulis has committed only six turnovers over his last five games while playing 155 minutes.

"It was a big difference. We missed him out there," Briscoe said. "He's our leader and floor general."

John Calipari and company were encouraged by the play of Marcus Lee, who responded to coming off the bench for the first time with season highs of 13 points and 12 rebounds. Lee had been held to as many points and only three more rebounds over his previous three games combined.

This is the first in a home-and-home series with UCLA visiting Lexington next December. Kentucky dismantled the Bruins in an 83-44 victory on Dec. 20 in Chicago, outscoring them 41-7 in the first half after a 24-0 game-opening run.

UCLA was limited to 26.8 percent shooting - its worst showing in 11 years - and Ulis had seven points, seven rebounds and six assists in 18 minutes.

That marked the Bruins' fifth straight loss to a top-ranked team since a 96-89 overtime win against No. 1 Arizona in the 2003 Pac-10 Tournament.

"Last year was an outlier," Calipari told the school's official website. "I had a ridiculous team. And they would go into a game like that to smoke somebody ... They would go in with that mentality. This team is, we don't have that mentality."

The Wildcats are still outscoring opponents by an average of 17.4 points and their closest result was an 11-point victory against then-No. 5 Duke on Nov. 17.

UCLA (4-3) bounced back from back-to-back losses to Kansas and Wake Forest in Maui by returning home for a 77-45 win against Cal State Northridge on Sunday. The Bruins, who hit a season-high nine 3-pointers, led by 17 at halftime after being outscored by 33 in the first half of the previous two games.

"In Maui we had a couple rough starts and that's been something that's happening to us," coach Steve Alford said. "It was part of the game plan to get ahead first, to punch first, and keep throwing punches."

Tony Parker had 14 points and 11 rebounds for already his fifth double-double.

The Bruins struggled defensively in their first encounter with an elite team, letting then-fifth ranked Kansas shoot 54.2 percent in a 92-73 loss Nov. 24. They've since held two opponents to 34.5 percent shooting, though a new issue has popped up - free-throw shooting. They were 8 for 14 against the Demon Deacons and 10 for 18 against Northridge.

Kentucky owns a 7-4 advantage in the all-time series and won the only previous meeting in Los Angeles, 68-66 on Dec. 4, 1959.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Thursday's games..........

Western Michigan is 3-4, losing its true road games by 6 at DePaul, by 4 at UNCW; Broncos are turning ball over 21.3% of time- their best win is over #279 San Diego. James Madison is #43 in experience; they're 4-3 vs D-I teams, with win at Richmond. Dukes are shooting 38.5% from arc. CAA home favorites are 6-2 vs spread MAC road underdogs are 4-7.

Delaware is 3-2, with both losses vs top 100 teams; their wins are by 6-1-23 points. Blue Hens are shooting just 28% from arc- they start three sophs and a junior. South Florida is 2-5; six of the seven games were at home; Bulls' best win is over #101 Albany. USF is turning ball over 21% of time, shooting just 24.8% from arc (6th-worst in US).

UL-Monroe swept UL-Lafayette LY, 57-55/67-55, after losing 11 of 15 to Cajuns before that; ULM is shooting 17.2% from arc this year, worst in country- they're 2-2 vs D-I teams, beating Chattanooga by 10 in only home games. ULL lost to Miami/alabama by 16-12 points in its only two D-I games- they have a couple wins against non-D-I teams.

Tex-Arlington lost in OT at Texas Tuesday; they've got wins at Ohio St, Memphis, are 5-2 while grabbing 42.5% of its own missed shots, #5 in country. UTA won 72-59 at North Texas in last meeting three years ago. UNT is 0-4 vs D-I teams after couple of non-D-I wins; they're turning ball over 24.8% of time (#345). Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-13.

Kentucky was beating UCLA 41-7 at half LY, pounded Bruins 83-44 as Wildcats made 12-26 on arc. Kentucky is 7-0; its only quality win was 74-63 over Duke on a neutral floor in NYC; Wildcats have #1 eFG% in country, are grabbing 42.2% of its own missed shots- they're making only 27.6% of shots on arc. UCLA is 4-3 with home loss to Monmouth.

Colorado State is 5-1 after losing last game in double OT on neutral court to UTEP last game; two of its last three games went two OTs. Rams are #8 team in experience- they start three seniors, are thin. Long Beach State lost by 4 at home to San Diego State Tuesday; 49ers lost last four games vs #15 schedule, their last three were all by 6 or less points.

UCSB is 2-3, 0-3 vs Pac-12 teams, losing by 18-12-2 points; Gauchos are shooting just 28% from arc, not getting to line much (#337)- they lost by 12 to Oregon State in only home game so far. USC was 5-0 before losing last two games in Orlando to Xavier/Monmouth; Trojans are playing at pace #13; they've made 38.5% on arc- this is their first true road game.

Belmont is 5-3, 1-3 vs top 100 teams, winning at Marquette, losing other three games by 9-5-14 points- they're making 65.1% of shots inside arc, #1 in country. Valparaiso is #28 in experience; they've lost to Oregon, Ball State by 6-3 points in last three games. Crusaders are 2-0 at home vs D-I teams, beating Fort Wayne by 14, Iona by 25.

SIU-Edwardsville lost last five games since beating Arkansas State in its opener; they lost by 20-16 points at Fort Wayne, Butler. Cougars are making 27.5% on arc (#326), 42.8% inside it (#301). Milwaukee is 1-3 in last four D-I games; this its first D-I home games. Horizon home faves are 2-4 against the spread; OVC road underdogs are 11-17.

Cal-Riverside is 3-2 vs D-I teams, winning both home games by 14-26 points; Highlanders have #32 eFG% defense; foes are shooting 23.7% on arc against them. Northern Colorado is 0-5 vs D-I teams, allowing average of 92.8 ppg- all their defensive metrics are terrible. Big West home faves are 4-3 against the spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 10-13.

Cal Poly lost at UNLV/UCLA by total of 7 points, then beat couple of stiffs by 9-13, along with two non-D-I wins. Mustangs beat Fort Wayne by 14 LY, making 9-20 on arc; this is their first D-I home game. FW won five of last six games, losing last game to Navy on neutral floor. Big West home faves are 4-3 against the spread; Summit League road dogs are 15-8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 13 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

It’s time for December football. While a lot of teams fell on their face after Thanksgiving, others rose to the occasion as we come the final four weeks of action. Playoffs spots are up for grabs and there’s a lot to be determined, so let’s get right into Week 13:

Thursday, Dec. 3

Green Bay at Detroit: The Lions have actually won more over the last five weeks than the Packers have, which includes an 18-16 victory in Green Bay on Nov. 15. The offense got it going on Thanksgiving day against Philadelphia, as Matthew Stafford threw a season-high five touchdown passes and hasn’t been picked off in consecutive games for the first time in 2015. Aaron Rodgers said he lost feeling in his fingers on his left hand during the second half of Thursday night’s loss to the Bears, throwing a pick for only the fourth time this season. Not only are these are teams headed in opposite directions, but the Packers also carry a two-game losing streak in Detroit into Ford Field despite being installed as the favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL oddsmakers give red-hot Lions plenty of respect versus Packers
By COLIN KELLY

A month ago, the Green Bay Packers were the toast of the NFC, and the talent-laden Detroit Lions were a mess.

Detroit got shellacked at Kansas City 45-10 as a 3-point pup on November 1. But on that same day, in the Sunday night game, Green Bay was dealt its first loss of the year, a 29-10 setback at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite.

Since then, the Packers have lost three of four games SU and ATS, while the Lions have won all three of their outings SU and ATS, including a stunning 18-16 win catching 10.5 points at Green Bay on November 15. On Thanksgiving Day, both teams played, with Detroit ripping Philadelphia 45-14 as a 3-point home fave and the Pack continuing to slide in a 17-13 home loss giving 7.5 points to Chicago.

Now, struggling Green Bay (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) heads to surging Detroit (4-7 SU and ATS) Thursday to kick off Week 13. John Lester, senior lines manager, opened the Packers as 3-point chalk.

“Through the first two months of the season, we’d be looking to make the Packers double-digit chalk here, but things have changed drastically,” Lester said. “We’ll obviously see a ton of Green Bay money from the betting public, but I’m interested to see where the sharps stand. The Lions have looked more in sync and confident of late, but this will be a hungry Packers bunch.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, gave Green Bay a little bit more of an edge.

“The Packers are struggling, and the Lions seem to have found their best stride,” Avello said. “I opened the Packers a 3.5-point favorite, and a lot of it was my gut telling me that both teams need to come back to reality.

New York Jets at New York Giants (Pick)

It’s a battle for Big Apple bragging rights, between two teams trying to find some playoff footing.

The Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) rolled past Miami 38-20 Sunday as 4.5-point chalk, ending a two-game SU skid and a four-game ATS slide. The Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) continued to allow the rest of the NFC to have some semblance of hope, losing to Washington 20-14 giving one point on the road Sunday.

“The Battle of New York may very well be the demise for one of these teams,” Avello said. “The Giants can afford the loss more, as they’d still only be one win away from claiming the top spot in the NFC East. Eli Manning is so Jekyll and Hyde, it’s difficult for both linemakers and bettors to figure this team out.”

Lester said the Jets have drawn the early sharp bettors.

“We’ll see no shortage of action for this huge Week 13 matchup at East Rutherford. It’s a classic tossup game,” he said. “The Jets have a slight edge as far as the power ratings, but we know we’ll be seeing a ton of support from the Giants’ faithful. The early, sharper action has come in on the J-E-T-S.”

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Pick)

The Vikings continue to surprise the league, cashing for bettors and taking advantage of NFC North rival Green Bay’s slide. Minnesota (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) dropped Atlanta 20-10 Sunday as a 2-point road pup, moving to 6-1 SU in its last seven and 9-1 ATS in its last 10.

The Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) kept themselves afloat in the playoff race by outlasting Pittsburgh 39-30 Sunday, covering as a 3-point home favorite. The two-time defending NFC champs have won four of their last five SU, but got some bad news in Sunday’s win, losing tight end Jimmy Graham for the season with a knee injury.

“Another game where it will be interesting to see where the bettors take this number,” Lester said. “Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense seem to be coming together at the right time. The Vikings will look to ride Adrian Peterson, but it’s likely that the Seahawks will stack the box and look to force Teddy Bridgewater into more throws than he’s accustomed to making.”

Avello moved slightly off the pick ‘em line.

“I opened Seattle a very small road favorite. Not because of their defense that we've all been believers in over the past few years, but because of their offensive production and overall experience against a young and still learning Teddy Bridgewater,” he said.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Indianapolis has managed to stay with Houston atop the AFC North, despite having to start 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck in place of injured Andrew Luck. On Sunday, the Colts (6-5 SU and ATS) topped Tampa Bay 25-12 laying three points at home.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS), getting three points at Seattle, lost a shootout 39-30. Perhaps worse though, as the Steelers try to stay in the playoff picture, QB Ben Roethlisberger left late in the game with a possible concussion. With his status uncertain, the opening line on this game will have to wait.

“Ben Roethlisberger was so good this week at Seattle, it will be a shame if he doesn't play against the Colts on Sunday,” Avello said. “I haven't seen him that sharp in quite some time.”

Lester added that it’s almost old hat for the consistently banged-up Roethlisberger this year.

“It feels like every week, we’re waiting to hear about the status of Ben Roethlisberger, and this week will be no different as he goes through the concussion protocol,” he said. “Big Ben is worth at least a touchdown to the line, so if he isn’t available, it will greatly impact where we set this game. The Colts have come together a bit, but Matt Hasselbeck is going to lose at some point.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Packers (7-4) at Lions (4-7)

Date: December 03, 2015 8:25 PM EDT

An improbable victory at Green Bay in Week 11 has given the Detroit Lions life.

Since Week 8, the Packers appear to have lost their ability to win.

Looking for a fourth consecutive victory, the Lions can sweep the season series from the struggling Packers for the first time in 24 years Thursday night at Ford Field.

Detroit (4-7) is last in the NFC North and three games behind second-place Green Bay, but the Lions are playing the better football among the two. Detroit's 18-16 victory at Lambeau Field on Nov. 15 was its first there since 1991, which is also the last season it took both meetings with the Packers (7-4).

The Lions have continued to win and are coming off a 45-14 Thanksgiving Day rout of Philadelphia. Green Bay fell 17-13 at home to Chicago that evening to finish 1-4 in November.

"Let's make it clear - we've been successful here, and success, you don't own success, it's rented," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. "And you've got to earn it each and every day.

"You have to carry forward what you've done in the past, and it's important for us to get ready to beat Detroit in Detroit."

Green Bay doesn't need to be reminded of how dangerous these revived Lions can be.

"(The Lions are) playing good football all around," said quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who squashed talk of a reported players-only meeting in Green Bay. "We've got to buckle down our preparation and make sure we're ready to play ... We've got to respond better to adversity."

Though Detroit dominated offensively last week, a resurgent defense has keyed the winning streak. The Lions have allowed averages of 14.3 points, 55.7 yards rushing and 271.7 total yards in the three games.

The turnaround has been stunning after the club allowed 30.6 points in the first eight contests.

Ziggy Ansah had 3 1/2 sacks against the Eagles and his 11 1/2 are 3 1/2 shy of Robert Porcher's team record set in 1999.

"They're playing complete," Green Bay guard T.J. Lang said. "They're covering. They're putting a lot of pressure on quarterbacks, and they're doing a great job stopping the run."

The Packers experienced the latter first-hand, getting held to a season-low 47 rushing yards by the Lions last month. Their primary offensive issues of late, however, have been in the passing game.

Green Bay averaged 27.3 points and 236.8 passing yards while starting 6-0, but 19.6 and 218.0 through the air in the last five. Rodgers' 53.8 completion percentage last month was the lowest of any quarterback with at least 90 attempts.

Randall Cobb has been limited to fewer than 80 receiving yards in all but one of the last eight games, James Jones had no catches on six targets last week and Davante Adams had two receptions for 14 yards. Adams was targeted 11 times and endured his share of drops against Chicago.

'We're not even being effective enough anywhere near our potential, I think,' said Rodgers, who went 35 of 61 for 333 yards with two TDs on Nov. 15. "We're just on different pages."

Detroit coach Jim Caldwell doesn't believe the Packers are any less dangerous despite their struggles.

'What I see is, without question, one of the top quarterbacks that ever played the game,' said Caldwell, whose team sacked Rodgers three times at Lambeau. 'This is as dangerous a team that you'll ever face.'

The ground game certainly has become so again, with Eddie Lacy following a demotion by rushing for 205 yards in the last two games after gaining 78 on 33 attempts in his previous four contests. Sidelined by a groin injury Nov. 15, Lacy has averaged 2.5 yards per carry while gaining 52 in two career games at Detroit.

He's also fumbled four times and lost two in the last five games overall, though he ran for 100 in his last meeting with the Lions on Dec. 28.

Detroit rushed for 217 yards the last two games after averaging 66.9 in the first nine. Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, has thrown seven of his 20 TDs and one of 12 INTs in the last three weeks. He passed for 337 yards and tied a career high with five touchdown throws against Philadelphia.

'Our quarterback is comfortable in this offense,' Caldwell said. 'And when that happens, it gives you opportunities for your playmakers to do things.'

Calvin Johnson, who caught three TDs last week, is 79 receiving yards shy of his sixth straight 1,000-yard season. Brandon Marshall and Roddy White are the only active players with at least 1,000 in at least six consecutive years.

Johnson, who caught six passes for 81 yards at Green Bay, has 17 catches for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the last three home games against the Packers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Packers trying to get offense back on track
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

GREEN BAY -- Forget any purchases made on Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy just might be feeling some buyer's remorse with his team's fractured offense.

As McCarthy and his staff continue to be baffled by the Packers' production woes that have contributed to their win-loss downslide of late, he had glowing words of praise about the resurgent attack the Green Bay defense will try to foil this week.

The Packers (7-4), who have lost four of their last five games, will play at the streaking Detroit Lions on Thursday night. The Lions have won three in a row, propelled by an offense that erupted for 45 points in a 31-point rout of the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving Day last week.

"I thought Detroit's offense got into a rhythm," McCarthy said. "They did a good job getting the football to their playmakers, which really, if you look statistically, they've done a really good job of that ... the last four or five weeks.

"They've got good run balance. They've got three different (running) backs, three diverse backs, two really good tight ends. Golden Tate is having a heck of a year, and the big guy (fellow receiver Calvin Johnson) is playing really well. It's a very well-balanced offense."

In short, it's not the Packers' bumbling offense, which is coming off a horrendous 13-point outing in a stunning four-point loss at home to the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving night.

Green Bay's enduring misery for much of the last month was exacerbated when Aaron Rodgers couldn't connect on four straight passes from the Bears' 8-yard line in the final minute of the game.

"We're just on different pages," Rodgers said of the bubbling disconnect with his pass catchers. "When you miss throws, when I'm throwing at a certain depth and the receiver's running a certain depth, obviously we're on different pages. So, we need to have some better communication and make sure there's not those discrepancies in the depths and the adjustments."

Interestingly, Packers linebacker Clay Matthews used similar terminology when assessing how the Lions had reached a crossroads with their offense only a few weeks ago. Their reawakening after a 1-7 start began when Matthew Stafford threw a pair of touchdowns in the second half to spark the Lions to an 18-16 win over Green Bay on Nov. 15, their first triumph over the Packers in Wisconsin in 24 years.

"It just looks as if they're clicking this time around, whereas earlier in the season perhaps they weren't all on the same page," Matthews said. "They looked really good on Thanksgiving. We'll see what type of team we get (Thursday), but we expect to see that type of team - those big playmaking receivers (with whom) they have taking shots up the field and trying to get the run game established."

If the Packers struggle to handle Detroit's diversified attack, which is relying on more than just the dominant Johnson, and their offense can't put a tough November in the rearview mirror, Green Bay's season could be on the brink.

Green Bay relinquished the NFC North lead to the Minnesota Vikings (8-3) less than a week after taking back the lead position by scoring 30 points - an anomaly by its recent woeful standards - in a comfortable win on the road.

"(It's) a division game we desperately need," Matthews said.

SERIES HISTORY: 171st regular-season meeting. Packers lead series, 95-68-7. After winning on the road against Green Bay by a score of 18-16 on Nov. 15 for the first time since 1991, the Lions have a chance to sweep the season series from the Packers for the first time since that same year. The Lions have won three of the last four meetings, including convincing home victories of 40-10 in 2013 when injured Green bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't play and 19-7 last year. The last time the Lions won at least three in a row against the Packers in Detroit was a streak of four from 1997-2000.

GAME PLAN

--Set to complete what shaped up to be an unusual, but favorable stretch of four straight games against NFC North opponents, the Packers surprisingly find themselves in dire straits. Their only win in the past three games came on the road against the Minnesota Vikings that briefly put Green Bay back in control of the division. However, wraparound losses at home to the NFC North's previously struggling two bottom feeders - the Detroit Lions and then the Chicago Bears last week on Thanksgiving night - have the Packers in danger of losing further ground to first-place Minnesota if they can't win Thursday night at Detroit. While the Packers have slumped with four losses in their last five games after a 6-0 start, the Lions are surging with three straight victories after a dubious 1-7 beginning. The Packers' inability to sack the normally stationary Matthew Stafford once contributed to the Detroit quarterback rallying the Lions to a big second half in their 18-16 win at Lambeau Field on Nov. 15. The Packers defense hit Stafford only three times in the game. "You have to hit the quarterback, you have to pressure the quarterback, get him off the spot, however you want to talk about that," Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy said this week. "So, it's important."

Even though all-star receiver Calvin Johnson had three touchdown catches in the Lions' lopsided win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving and has had numerous big games at Green Bay's expense, the Packers' stated No. 1 focus on defense is bottling up Detroit's trio of running backs. Green Bay held the Lions to 45 rushing yards in 26 attempts in the first meeting of the season. Joique Bell was Detroit's top rusher with a scant 17 yards in 14 carries. The Packers' desire to get after Stafford more, though, could leave them susceptible to giving up big-play check-downs, particularly to Theo Riddick, who ranks third on the club with 55 receptions for 507 yards and three touchdowns.

Green Bay struggled mightily to run the football against the Lions last time out. The Packers rushed for only 47 yards in 18 attempts, led by James Starks' 15 carries for 42 yards. They played without Pro Bowl workhorse Eddie Lacy, who missed the game because of a groin injury. A healthier Lacy, who also has battled through an ankle injury he sustained early in the season, has since rounded into his productive form of the previous two seasons after another slow start. Lacy has put together back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his young career, coming off a season-best 105-yard effort in the loss to the Bears last week.

The Packers figure to lean more on Lacy and possibly Starks. They certainly don't want Rodgers' getting close to the career-high 61 passes he threw against Detroit the last time. Rodgers completed only 35 of those for 333 yards and two touchdowns, but he was sacked three times. "Just be physical," Lacy said of the focus for Green Bay's sputtering offense going into the rematch. "We've got to play hard for 60 minutes. They're (the Lions defense) going to come out fast, and we are, too, but we just have to try to wear them down in the third and fourth quarters, and maybe that's when the big runs will come out. But, definitely, just try to wear them down."

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

--Packers LT David Bakhtiari vs. Lions DE Ziggy Ansah.

If not for the seemingly unstoppable J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans, fellow lineman Ansah probably would be getting considerable attention for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Detroit's third-year player has been nothing short of sensational rushing the passer. Fresh off a career-high 3 1/2 sacks in the Lions' home rout of the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving Day, Ansah gets to stay put on the fast track at noisy Ford Field for the rematch against the Packers.

"He's played well in our stadium, too," Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy said. "Anytime you go inside on the turf, obviously the game is faster. Then, you've got the crowd noise that definitely favors the home team."

Ansah, who leads the NFC and ranks second in the league behind Watt with 11.5 sacks, didn't have any of the Lions' three sacks of Aaron Rodgers in their upset win over the Packers at Lambeau Field on Nov. 15. However, Bakhtiari had his hands full as the primary blocker lined up across from the speedy and tenacious Ansah, who led Detroit with three hits of Rodgers.

--Packers coverage unit vs. Lions kickoff returner Ameer Abdullah.

A 104-yard runback by Abdullah to start the second half 2 1/2 weeks ago at Lambeau sparked the Lions' stunning road win against Green Bay. Micah Hyde ran down Abdullah from behind and tackled him just short of the goal line, but Detroit snapped a 3-3 tie and went ahead for good three plays later on a short touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford. Abdullah averaged 67 yards in his two kickoff returns that game and has vaulted to the top of the NFL leader board. The diminutive, but explosive rookie is averaging 31.2 yards. Playing indoors should allow Packers kicker Mason Crosby to swing away and kick the football out of the end zone, thus taking away Abdullah's boundless potential to pierce the Packers with another long return.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-4) at DETROIT LIONS (4-7)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 47

The Lions will be going for their fourth straight victory when they host the Packers on Thursday night.

Green Bay comes into Thursday’s meeting with Detroit in the midst of a major slump. The Packers have lost four of their past five games SU and five of their past six ATS. One of those losses came at home against the Lions, when Green Bay lost 18-16 as a 10-point favorite.

The Packers will be desperate for a win on Thursday, but they will be facing a Lions team that has won three straight games both SU and ATS and has suddenly found some confidence. Detroit is 2-0 both SU and ATS when hosting Green Bay over the past three seasons and will be hoping to win a third straight on Thursday.

One trend favoring the Packers in this game is that the Lions are 4-14 ATS off one or more consecutive Overs in the past three seasons. Another fact worth pointing out in this game is that the Lions are 9-0 Over after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.

OT Bryan Bulaga (Undisclosed) is questionable for Green Bay on Thursday and WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) is doubtful. For the Lions, WR Calvin Johnson (Ankle) is probable and both K Matt Prater (Undisclosed) and S Glover Quin (Ankle) are questionable.

The Packers have really been struggling recently, but they are not a team that should ever be counted out. Green Bay has a very good defense that allows just 19.5 PPG (6th in NFL) and one of the best quarterbacks in football in Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers has been excellent this season, throwing for 2,684 yards with 24 TD and just four INT. He was, however, lousy in the Packers’ loss to the Bears in their most recent game, throwing for just 202 yards with one TD and one INT. He will need to be a lot better against the Lions on Thursday.

One player that can really give this team a boost is RB Eddie Lacy. After a straight up embarrassing start to the season, Lacy has churned out 205 rushing yards on 39 carries over the past two weeks. The Lions have a very tough run defense, so Lacy will need to use his power to fight for extra yards and take some pressure off of the passing game.

The Lions have looked rejuvenated in recent weeks and QB Matt Stafford is showing the Detroit front office that he should definitely stick around next season. Stafford threw for 337 yards with five TD and zero INT against the Eagles a week ago and has thrown just one INT in the past three contests.

Part of his resurgence has been due to the play of WR Calvin Johnson, who caught three TD in the win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving. It hasn’t been just the offense, though, as this team has allowed just 43 points total over the past three weeks.

This Lions defensive unit allowed just 16 points the last time they faced the Packers and will be looking to come up with a similar effort on Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Packers at Lions

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 46.5)

The Detroit Lions were on the fast track to oblivion before ending a 24-year drought with a shocking victory at the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. That sparked a three-game winning streak for the Lions, who suddenly find themselves harboring postseason aspirations as they prepare to host the skidding Packers in Sunday's rematch.

Detroit had one victory through eight games, beating NFC North rival Chicago in overtime, before stunning the Packers 18-16 with its first victory at Green Bay since December 1991. “Our guys have been battling and getting better every week and that’s what we have to do again this week,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. The loss to Detroit was the third in a row for the Packers, who appeared to get back on track with a 30-13 romp at division-leading Minnesota in Week 11. The momentum was short-lived, however, as Green Bay dropped a 17-13 decision to visiting Chicago on Thanksgiving.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 5.5-point home dogs and have been bet up to +3. The total has been bet down from its opening number of 47.5 to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - WR J. Abbrederis (questionable Thursday, ribs), B M. Hyde (questionable Thursday, hip), C C. Linsley (questionable Thursday, ankle), T B. Bulaga (questionable, ankle), CB D. Randall (questionable Thursday, knee), G T. Lang (questionable Thursday), WR T. Montgomery (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

Lions - WR G. Tate (probable Thursday, calf), WR C. Johnson (probable Thursday, ankle), DT C. Reid (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Prater (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S G. Quinn (questionable Thursday, ankle), G L. Warford (questionable Thursday, concussion), T C. Robinson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT G. Wright (questionable Thursday, ankle), WR L. Moore (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-3) - Lions (+2) + home field (-3) = Lions +2

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Aaron Rodgers in 2014: 65.6 completion percentage, 8.4 yards per pass attempt. In 2015? 60.5 percent completions and only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. That?s what happens with no WR?s! Meanwhile, a month ago, I had the Lions ranked dead last in my power ratings. A vastly improved defensive mindset has made all the difference, holding each of their last three foes to 16 points or less." - Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-4, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, normally among the league's most accurate passers, has failed to post a completion percentage better than 57.4 percent over his last four games, even though he has nine touchdowns versus two interceptions in that span. One of the few positives during Green Bay's skid has been the re-emergence of running back Eddie Lacy, who has registered back-to-back 100-yard games since the Packers were held to 47 yards on the ground by the Lions. Tied for fifth in the league with 30 sacks, Green Bay has yielded 48 points over the past three games.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-7, 4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Defense has fueled the turnaround by Detroit - after surrendering a shade over 30 points during the ugly 1-7 start, the Lions have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.4 points. Detroit also is coming off its best offensive performance as Matthew Stafford threw for five touchdowns and 337 yards in a 45-14 demolition of Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day. Wideout Calvin Johnson latched onto three of those scoring passes to end a four-game drought while running back Theo Riddick has 10 receptions for 134 yards and a score in his last two contests.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Detroit.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the Packers in this NFC North showdown, with 61 percent of wagers on Green Bay. They also love the over in the matchup, with 69 percent of wagers on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 13
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 3

GREEN BAY at DETROIT (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Lions surging with three wins and covers in a row, plus win at Lambeau for first time since 1991! Lions usually fare much better at home vs. Green Bay, winning last two and 3-2 SU last five. Pack skidding with 1-4 SU mark last five and 1-5 spread mark last six this season. Pack also "under" 8-3 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Lions and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Odds
by Alan Matthews

Mike McCarthy has been one of the most successful coaches in the NFL with a 101-53-1 regular-season record and one Super Bowl title to his credit since taking over at Green Bay. But even legendary coach Bill Parcells has admitted every coach wears out his welcome at some point. You aren't going to see guys staying decades in jobs these days like a Tom Landry, Chuck Noll or Don Shula.

I mention this because could McCarthy be in some trouble if the Packers miss the playoffs? I rather doubt it, but stranger things have happened. His team hasn't looked right since coming out of its bye week at 6-0. The Pack (7-4) have dropped four of five since, and two of them they definitely should not have lost. They are a game behind the Vikings in the NFC North, and those teams conclude the regular season against one another in Lambeau. The Packers are -900 to make the playoffs and +550 not to. They are -110, same as Vikings, to win the division.

The Lions (4-7) aren't going anywhere, but their three-game winning streak might give whomever the new general manager is thoughts about keep Jim Caldwell as head coach; Caldwell looked like he had zero percent chance of returning when his team was 1-7. All the Lions have really accomplished with this is ruined their shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft. They aren't even a betting option on that prop (Browns are +175 favorites).

Packers at Lions Betting Story Lines

I was totally stunned that Green Bay lost at home to Chicago 17-13 on Thanksgiving Night because Aaron Rodgers simply doesn't lose to the Bears, especially at home, and it was such an emotional night with Brett Favre's ceremony. But Rodgers, who had four chances inside the Bears' 10 at the end of the game to win but couldn't convert, was outplayed by Jay Cutler -- never, ever thought I'd write that -- in completing only 22-for-43 for 202 yards, a TD and a pick. His rating of 62.4 was easily his worst of the season. Rodgers had three straight games with a rating of at least 116.9 to open the season. He has just one over 99.0 since then.

I've written this before and will keep doing so: injured receiver Jordy Nelson is badly missed. Davante Adams, who was supposed to be Nelson's primary replacement, caught just two of 11 passes thrown to him against Chicago, including dropping a likely touchdown. He's not having a good season after so much promise as a rookie. Randall Cobb also has regressed and is dropping balls left and right like Adams. McCarthy needs to take back play-calling duties from coordinator Tom Clements. The Packers are 23rd in third-down conversion rate and yards per pass attempt, 25th in completion percentage (three games in, Rodgers was completing 73.6 percent of his throws) and 24th in time of possession. On the bright side, the defense has been fine and Eddie Lacy is back in form and clearly the No. 1 running back again.

So why are the Lions suddenly winning? They were never as bad as that 1-7 start. Detroit should have won Week 1in San Diego and Week 4 in Seattle and then things would have been vastly different. The defense has definitely stepped it up the past three games, not allowing more than 16 points in any. End Ezekiel Ansah is playing like a Pro Bowler, is No. 2 in the NFL with 11.5 sacks and tied for the league lead with four forced fumbles. The offense hadn't been all that great until Thanksgiving's 45-14 blowout of the Eagles in which Matthew Stafford threw for 337 yards and personal-best five touchdowns, three to Calvin Johnson. Detroit still can't run the ball whatsoever.

The biggest upset of the season, in my opinion (and a game that ruined Survivor and Confidence Pools everywhere), was in Week 10 at Lambeau Field when the Lions won 18-16 as 11-point underdogs. I'd like to say I saw that coming as Green Bay was off tough road losses to unbeaten teams Denver and Carolina and the Detroit off its bye week and had only one win. But that would be a lie. Stafford was 24-for-38 for 242 yards with two scores and a pick as the Lions ended a 24-game road losing streak in the series despite Matt Prater missing two extra points. Mason Crosby missed a 52-yard field goal as time expired after the Packers recovered an onside kick that was mishandled by Detroit's Johnson with around 30 seconds left. The Packers had been stopped on a 2-point try on the previous play. Rodgers threw the ball a season-high 61 times, completing 35 for 333 yards and two scores. Neither team could run the ball.

Packers at Lions Betting Odds and Trends

Green Bay is a 3-point favorite (-105) with a total of 46.5. On the moneyline, the Packers are -155 and Lions +135. On the alternate lines, the Pack are -3.5 (+120) and -2.5 (-130). Green Bay is 6-5 against the spread (3-2 on road) and 3-8 "over/under" (2-3 on road). Detroit is 4-7 ATS (2-4 at home) and 6-5 O/U (4-2 at home).

The Packers are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight after a loss. They are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 vs. teams with a losing record. The Lions have covered four straight on Thursday. They are 1-6 ATS in their past seven inside the division. The under is 6-0 in Green Bay's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-3 in Detroit's past 11 against teams with a winning record. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under has hit in five of the previous seven.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Packers at Lions Betting Predictions

Get Megatron in there if he's on your fantasy team. He has caught at least one touchdown pass in seven straight Thursday games. In his past seven against Green Bay overall, Johnson has 48 catches for 808 yards and five touchdowns. Stafford also has shined (1,498 yards, 12 TDs) in his past four Thursday games. On the flip side, Rodgers is 10-3 against Detroit as a starter with 24 touchdowns for a 106.8 passer rating.

No edge in terms of preparation since both played last Thursday. This is the first time the Packers have played on consecutive Thursdays since 2007 and it's only their third prime-time game in Detroit since the merger. Green Bay is 8-5 at Ford Field, a .615 winning percentage that is No. 1 among teams that have played five or more games there.

I don't know what to make of the Packers, honestly. But I'll back them and give the 2.5-point alternate line. Go under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 13

Packers (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)-- Detroit won its last three games, Green Bay lost four of last five, including first home loss to Detroit since 1991, just 6th win for Lions in last 30 series games. Packers lost 40-10/19-7 in last two visits here; they won 30-13 at Minnesota in only game on carpet this year. Detroit won field position by twelve yards in 18-16 win three weeks ago- neither team ran ball well. Lions held GB to 5.1 ypa. Packers are 3-2 on road, 2-2 as road faves. Detroit allowed 14.3 ppg in winning last three games, after giving up 37.3 ppg in four games before that. Seven of last eight Packer games stayed under total; five of last seven Detroit games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread.