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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Birmingham Bowl Betting Preview: South Florida vs. South Carolina

South Florida Bulls vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (+10, 62)

Game to be played at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

When USF and South Carolina square off in the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 29 at Legion Field, it will mark just the second all-time meeting between the schools. It’s also a matchup of one of the nation’s most potent offenses in the Bulls’ Gulf Coast Offense against a Gamecocks defense that has taken on first-year coach Will Muschamp’s hard-nosed style. USF has hired Charlie Strong to replace head coach Willie Taggart, who departed for Oregon, but interim coach T.J. Weist will coach the Bulls in the bowl game with David Reaves serving as offensive coordinator.

South Carolina is bowl-eligible for the 12th time in 13 seasons after doubling its win total in Muschamp’s first campaign in Columbia. The Gamecocks have won their last four bowl games – only Marshall’s five-game winning streak in bowl games is longer. The Gamecocks are 0-2 in the bowl games in Birmingham, though, having lost 24-14 to Missouri in the 1979 Hall of Fame Bowl and 20-7 to Connecticut in the 2010 Birmingham Bowl.

The Bulls already have set a program record with 10 wins as well as school marks for total offense (6,181 yards), scoring (523 points), touchdowns (71), rushing yards (3,501) and rushing touchdowns (44). USF junior quarterback Quinton Flowers will be the most dynamic offensive player on the field for either team and finished the regular season ranked in the top 20 in the nation in nine offensive categories. Flowers already has set program records for total offense (3,976 yards), rushing yards (1,425), rushing touchdowns (15), total touchdowns (37) and 300-yard total offense games (eight).

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: This line hit the board with South Florida favored by double digits at -10. They were briefly bet up to -10.5, but have since returned to the opening number. The total opened at 62.5 and has been bet down slightly to 62.

WEATHER REPORT: At kickoff Thursday afternoon in Birmingham the weather is expected to be cloudy with a slight chance of showers and temperatures in the mid-50's. Wind may be a factor in the kicking and passing game with sustained winds expected to exceed 20 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

South Florida - DB L. Robbins (Questionable, shoulder), OL G. Bethel (Out Indefinitely, eligibility), G B. Atterbury (Out Indefinitely, leg), RB D. Tice (Out Indefinitely, ankle), S M. Dixon (Out For Season, shoulder), WR A. Legree (Out For Season, knee).

South Carolina - RB A. Turner (Probable, knee), RB M. Denson (Questionable, knee), OL D. Stanley (Questionable, ankle), WR R. Davis (Questionable, hamstring), TE K. Markway (Out Indefinitely, ankle), QB L. Nunez (Out For Season, red shirt).

ABOUT USF (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 9-3 O/U): With Flowers leading the way, the Bulls averaged a whopping 515.1 total yards – including 292.2 on the ground – and 43.6 points during the regular season. Flowers and running back Marlon Mack (1,137 yards, 15 TDs) are a tough 1-2 punch on the ground, but Flowers can do damage with his arm and rarely makes mistakes – he has thrown 22 touchdown passes with just six interceptions. The Bulls haven’t been as consistent on the other side of the ball and have allowed at least 500 total yards in four of their last five games.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Gamecocks had won four of five and were feeling positive about the direction they were headed before a 56-7 rout at the hands of rival Clemson to close the regular season. The 622 total yards surrendered to the Tigers marred what was an otherwise encouraging season for Muschamp’s defense, which ranked 10th nationally with 25 takeaways – including 14 interceptions – and has been tough in the red zone, allowing touchdowns just 28 times in 49 trips inside the 20. A young offense came to life late in the season after freshmen Rico Dowdle (714 rushing yards, six TDs) and Jake Bentley (1,030 passing yards, six TDs, two interceptions) took on larger roles.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC.
* Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games overall.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Gamecocks last 4 vs. AAC.

CONSENSUS: The public is favoring the underdog South Carolina Gamecocks at a rate of 57 percent and the Under is picking up the majority of the totals wagers at 56 percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Belk Bowl Prediction, Virginia Tech (9-4) vs. Arkansas (7-5) Game Preview

Date: Thursday, December 29th
Game Time: 5:30 pm
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Network: ESPN

The Bowl Matchup Ranking Of Awesomeness (1 best-40 worst): 18 out of 40
Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Belk Bowl

– The ACC needs this win. It’s a down year for the SEC – that’s not going to happen for long. It’s an up year for the ACC – that might continue. But it would be a black mark on the ACC season if the team that came really, really close to pulling off an ACC championship loses to a middling SEC team that struggled to find any semblance of consistency. For Hokie head coach Justin Fuente, this would be a nice way to end a first campaign.

– Bret Bielema isn’t on any sort of a hot seat, but … he’s 25-25 in his four years as the Arkansas head coach. He’s had time to put his pieces in place, and while his teams have been competitive, and it’s never easy to rock in the SEC West, a loss would mean he’s got a losing record during his time. Don’t think that won’t be brought up if Arkansas gets out to a slow start next year.

– These have been two great bowl teams over the last several years. The two programs are used to closing the season strong. More on Arkansas and bowls in a moment, but the program has won four of the last five bowls going back to the overtime win over East Carolina in the 2009 Liberty. Virginia Tech won a wild 55-52 shootout over Tulsa in Frank Beamer’s last game – the Independence Bowl – with wins in three of the last four bowls.
Here’s Why Arkansas Will Win The Belk Bowl

– Time to get all tough and be what Arkansas is supposed to be. Can the Hogs line up and blast away like they’re supposed to under Bielema? Tennessee was able to rumble for over five yards per carry, and teams that committed to the ground game were able to crank up the big numbers when they had to. 11 of the 21 rushing touchdowns Virginia Tech allowed came in the four losses – Arkansas has to get running.

– Field position might matter, and the punting game should have plenty to do with that. The Hogs didn’t get too much out of the kicking game over the last few years, but Toby Baker has been terrific this year, averaging close to 45 yards per kick for a punting game that’s among the best in the country. Virginia Tech has an offense to do just about everything, a tilted field is a big deal to an Arkansas offense that bogs down at times.

– There might be issues overall, but all of a sudden, Bielema is the guy who can win bowls. Barry Alvarez was only partially joking when he jabbed that Bielema getting to Rose Bowls was fine at Wisconsin, but the goal is winning them. After going 2-4 in bowls with the Badgers, and losing four of his last five, he’s won both of his bowl appearances with the Hogs, and both in blowouts. They blasted Texas two years ago, and Kansas State in the Liberty last season.
Here’s Why Virginia Tech Will Win The Belk Bowl

– Can Arkansas come up with a third down stop? The Hog defense has had its moments, and when it dominates on third downs, it wins – Florida converted 1-of-11 chances – but on the year opposing offenses have been able to keep the chains moving without a problem. What’s been among the biggest keys in the five loses? The Hogs are 1-5 when allowing offenses to convert 45% or more of their third down chances? Virginia Tech averages 42%. On the flip side …

– Virginia Tech’s defense is a rock on third downs. Clemson was able to own third downs in the ACC championship, and Syracuse converted 10-of-21 chances in its shocking upset over the Hokies. Duke was the only other team to convert more than 30% of its third down chances. For an Arkansas team that needs to control the ball and the clock, conversions are a must.

– Jerod Evans is one of the better quarterback in a league full of great quarterbacks. As long as he doesn’t throw picks, the Hokies are fine. Five of his seven picks came in three of the four losses, and there were other issues against Tennessee. However, he’s been among the nation’s most dynamic playmakers throwing for over 3,300 yards and 27 scores, while running for 759 yards and ten touchdowns. Not only is he able to keep the offense rolling, but as he proved against Notre Dame and Clemson, he can rally the team back if needed.
You’ve Read This Far, So You Get Three Honest Thoughts On The Belk Bowl

– Will the Arkansas pattern continue? The Hogs have been able to bounce back from losses, or they’ve let down after wins, depending on which way you want to look at it. After starting out the season 2-0, Arkansas went win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win-loss. If you believe in never messing with a streak, this might be a win.

– Will the Belk finally be any good? There was a nice run of a few games with four straight close battles from 2008 to 2011, but the last four have been big, dull duds that got lost in the glut of the bowl season. The SEC blew out the ACC in the last two, and the last four have been decided by 13 points or more. This should be closer – at least that’s the hope.

– Austin Allen didn’t get enough credit for a solid season, but this might be his breakthrough moment for next year. Arkansas is supposed to be about running the ball, but he carried the offense throughout the year throwing for 187 yards or more in every game. Yards aren’t a problem – he hit Alabama for 400 – but it’s about the picks. Nine of the 12 interceptions came in the five losses. However …
Super. So Who’s Going To Win The Belk Bowl?

Can the Arkansas running game get going? The Hogs are 6-0 this year when running for 180 yards or more, and Virginia Tech has allowed at least that many in five of the last six games.

Expect the Arkansas defense to play with another gear, and for the offense to come up with the balance needed to keep the aggressive Hokie D on its heels.

This will be the Florida game Arkansas, and not the LSU or Auburn versions, but you’ll know how it goes right away. If Virginia Tech owns the first quarter and looks terrific, it’ll roll – but it won’t.


Final Score

Arkansas 37, Virginia Tech 30


Line

Virginia Tech -7, o/u: 61.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Valero Alamo Bowl Prediction, Colorado (10-3) vs. Oklahoma State (9-3), Game Preview

Date: Thursday, December 29th
Game Time: 9:00 pm
Venue: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Network: ESPN

The Bowl Matchup Ranking Of Awesomeness (1 best-40 worst): 7 out of 40
Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Valero Alamo Bowl

– It’s consistently the most interesting bowl game – period. TCU came up with an all-timer of a comeback last season to beat Oregon in a three-overtime thriller. UCLA got by Kansas State 40-35 in the Alamo two seasons ago. There have been a few blowouts here and there, but it’s been fun even when the final result is double-digits. Baylor beat Washington 67-57 in 2011, Texas Tech beat Michigan State in the 2009 season version, and there’s often a big storyline no matter what happens. This year shouldn’t be any different as two teams that had could’ve won their respective conference titles in the final weekend battle it out.

– Just how real is Colorado? It’s been a fun storyline all year, and it’s been nice to have the former power program back, but the Buffs don’t really have any massive wins. Beating Utah and Washington State at home was nice, and getting by Stanford and Colorado State were charming, but there’s still a prove-it factor in play. In the program’s first bowl game since 2007, this will be a jacked-up team that’ll be looking to prove the doubters wrong. That might seem a bit hokey, but it’ll matter.

– Just how real is Oklahoma State? Yeah, the Central Michigan game ended on a fluke and a missed call, but as it turned out, Central Michigan wasn’t that good at playing college football. The loss to Baylor looks worse now, and the blowout loss to Oklahoma cemented the Cowboys into a backup role in the Big 12. The narrative on the season changes with a win. Go 10-3, and the season will be considered a success, even without a conference title.
Here’s Why Colorado Will Win The Valero Alamo Bowl

– If any secondary is going to slow down the Oklahoma State passing game, it’s Colorado’s. Playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, the Buffs were still unbelievable against the high-powered air shows. Just how amazing has the Colorado secondary been? No one hit the 50% completion mark over the last four games – and that includes Washington State, Utah and Washington – and on the year, eight of the 13 offenses on the slate couldn’t hit half of their passes, partly because …

– The Buffs can bring the heat. Colorado doesn’t have a huge pass rush, but there’s enough of one – especially if end Jimmie Gilbert gets going – to potentially bother Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph. Colorado is great at generating pressure and putting its secondary in positions to make big plays. The D doesn’t have to be a brick wall, but it has to hold serve because …

– The Buffaloes should be able to stampede. QB Sefo Liufau will be ready to go with an ankle injury that killed the Colorado chances in the Pac-12 Championship vs. Washington, but the offense should revolve around the ground attack. The running game was stuffed to a stop by Utah and Washington, and it failed to hit the 200-yard mark in four of the last five games, but Oklahoma State’s defensive front can be pounded on. Get ready for Phillip Lindsay to set up easy third down chances, and for Liufau to keep the chains moving.
Here’s Why Oklahoma State Will Win The Valero Alamo Bowl

– Mason Rudolph might be just good enough to be the star who carries the Cowboys to a win. Rudolph suffered from playing in the same conference and the same state as Baker Mayfield, and he struggled in the loss to OU, but when he gets rolling, he’s one of the most accurate, dangerous quarterbacks in college football. The pro potential is there, and it’s possible that next year – if everything goes perfectly – that he grows into another Mitch Trubisky in terms of the scouting buzz. Having a big game against Colorado would get that rolling, and that’s where he’ll get help from …

– James Washington. Like Rudolph, Washington suffered from playing in the same conference and the same state as Dede Westbrook, but he averaged close to 20 yards per catch with over 1.200 yards and nine scores on the season – highlighted by a 296-yard day against Pitt. He’s the field-stretcher who takes away the pressure from the other star Cowboy receivers, and he’s the home-run hitter the Buffs have to pay attention to on every play. Colorado was able to hold down Washington’s John Ross, but as fast as Ross is, Washington’s a better deep threat.

– Colorado is great when it comes to turnover margin … but Oklahoma State is even better. +10 on the year, the Cowboys have turned it over fewer than twice in every game but three, and gave the ball away just three times in seven of the last eight games – the one whiff was a three-turnover performance in the win over Kansas State. Colorado won’t get many – if any – cheap and easy scoring chances.
You’ve Read This Far, So You Get Three Honest Thoughts On The Valero Alamo Bowl

– Oklahoma State bowl games are usually awful. Can the Alamo Bowl factor help buck the trend? The Cowboys beat Stanford in an overtime thriller in the Fiesta to close out the 2011 season, but that was an aberration. From the 2007 Insight vs. Indiana, through last year’s clunker of a Sugar, eight of the last nine OSU bowl games were decided by eight points or more. When the Cowboys don’t show up, they really don’t show up, getting beaten by double-digits in two of the last three bowls.

– Colorado used to be the bowl team of bowl teams. Colorado won six straight bowl games in the 1990s, but the program has been ultra-streaky historically in the post-season. Yeah, it won seven bowls in nine – including that great run – but before that, it lost seven straight from 1972 to 1989. It’s been a long, long time since the Buffs have been in a bowl – the 2007 Independence loss to Alabama – and they’re on a run of four losses in their last five.

– This game will go a long way to reshaping the narrative. The Pac-12 didn’t beat anyone with a pulse in the non-conference this season – outside of the Big 12. Stanford beat Kansas State, Cal beat Texas, and Arizona State beat Texas Tech, but that’s been about it when it comes to the decent wins. The Pac-12 could really, really use as many restaurant quality wins this bowl season. The Big 12 could really, really use one more.
Super. So Who’s Going To Win The Valero Alamo Bowl?

Colorado might be far, far better now that it’ll get several weeks off to get healthy, and it should look like a different team with Liufau able to heal up a bit and do what he does. But Oklahoma State’s offense is about to get on a roll.

The explosiveness of the Cowboy offense will come through with the running game doing the work early on, and Rudolph getting into a groove in the second half.

The Buffs will keep up the pace in a shootout, but OSU is better equipped for what the game’s going to turn into.

It’s the Alamo Bowl. It’s going to be good.


Final Score

Oklahoma State 37, Colorado 34


Line

Colorado -3, o/u: 62.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**South Florida vs. South Carolina**

-- Back in August, I stated that if Will Muschamp could hit the six-win mark and get his first South Carolina team into the postseason, he should be a strong candidate for SEC Coach of the Year. Well, here we are and the Gamecocks are going bowling on Thursday. To be exact, they’ll take on South Florida at the Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field.

-- As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had USF (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) listed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 62. Gamblers could take South Carolina to win outright for a +330 payout (risk $100 to win $330).

-- South Florida is bowling for a second straight season after missing out on the postseason from 2011-2014. However, the Bulls will have to face South Carolina without head coach Willie Taggart, who parlayed USF’s 10-2 record into a better job at Oregon. He has been replaced by former Texas and Louisville head coach Charlie Strong, who will take over after interim coach T.J. Weist runs the show in Birmingham.

-- USF lost a 45-35 decision to Western Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog at last year’s Miami Beach Bowl.

-- USF won its first three games in blowout fashion before taking its first loss to FSU by a 55-35 count as a four-point home underdog. The Bulls would respond with three consecutive victories by margins of at least 15 points before taking a 46-30 loss at Temple on a Friday night. Since then, however, they have won four in a row while cashing tickets at a 3-1 ATS clip.

-- USF’s best wins came vs. Navy (52-45), at Memphis (49-42) and vs. UCF (48-31). Seven of the Bulls’ 10 wins came by at least 15 points. They closed the regular season with the win over the Knights as 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Marlon Mack led the way against UCF by rushing for 155 yards and two TDs on 20 attempts. Junior QB Quinton Flowers ran for 152 yards and a pair of scores on 20 attempts. He also completed 17-of-26 passes for 152 yards. Rodney Adams had nine receptions for 78 yards.

-- Flowers had a sensational campaign, connecting on 61.5 percent of his throws for 2,546 yards with a 22/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also ran for a team-high 1,425 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 8.1 yards per carry. Mack, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher even though he’s a true junior, went over 1,000 rushing yards for a third straight season. He ran for 1,137 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.

-- Adams is USF’s go-to WR, snaring 60 balls for 755 yards and five TDs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 21 receptions for 401 yards and five TDs.

-- USF has been a double-digit favorite seven times this year, producing a 5-2 spread record.

--South Florida is ranked fifth in the nation in rushing, ninth in total offense and seventh in scoring (43.6 points per game). However, the Bulls are ranked No. 120 (of 128 FBS teams) in total defense and they’re No. 118 at defending the pass.

-- South Carolina (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) has been a double-digit underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-1-1 spread record with one outright victory. The Gamecocks own a 3-4-1 spread record as underdogs.

-- After starting 2-4 and losing 28-14 at home to Georgia, USC went into the open date searching for answers on offense. Muschamp made a bold move and took the redshirt off of 4-star recruit Jake Bentley, a true freshman who skipped his senior year of high school. The move paid off instantly with Bentley leading his team on a three-game winning streak with home victories over UMass (34-28), Tennessee (24-21) and Missouri (31-21).

-- South Carolina was only blown out once this season. Unfortunately, that came against its arch rival in the regular-season finale. Clemson took it to the Gamecocks early and often in a 56-7 beatdown as a 27-point home favorite. The Tigers gashed the USC defense for 622 yards. Bentley couldn’t get anything going, completing only 7-of-17 passes for 41 yards with one interception. USC’s only score came on a 33-yard TD pass from WR Deebo Samuel to true freshman WR Bryan Edwards.

-- South Carolina’s best wins came at Vanderbilt (13-10) and vs. the Volunteers, who managed only 297 yards of total offense and committed three turnovers in Columbia. Bentley connected on 15-of-20 throws for 167 yards and two TDs without an interception. Rico Dowdle, another true freshman, rushed 27 times for 127 yards and one TD. Samuel had eight catches for 83 yards, while Edwards hauled in four receptions for 41 yards and one TD.

-- For the season, Bentley completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,030 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He has three main targets in Samuel, Edwards and sophomore TE Hayden Hurst. Samuel had a team-best 45 receptions for 593 yards, while Hurst had 42 catches for 530 yards. Neither player had a TD catch, however. Edwards finished the regular season with 38 grabs for 519 yards and three TDs. Another tight end, sophomore Kevin Crosby, had 22 catches for 210 yards and a team-high four TDs. Samuel did find the end zone, though. The versatile sophomore rushed 14 times for 94 yards and five TDs, and he also had the aforementioned TD pass.

-- Dowdle missed all of September with an injury, but he still rushed for a team-high 714 yards and six TDs in only eight games. Dowdle averaged 5.9 YPC.

-- South Carolina missed the postseason in 2015, but it has still won four straight bowl games, including wins over Miami, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska from 2011-2014 under Steve Spurrier.

-- The ‘over’ is 9-3 overall for USF, going 5-1 in its last six games. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 74.6 PPG. Their games that went ‘under’ had totals of 74.5, 73 and 68.5.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for South Carolina, but the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back contests to close the regular season. The Gamecocks have watched their games average combined scores of 44.1 PPG. This is the highest total they’ve seen all season. The previous high was 57.5 in a 17-10 loss at Kentucky that had a thunder ‘under’ appearance.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech**

-- This SEC/ACC showdown will take place at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium. As of early Wednesday, most spots had Virginia Tech (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS) installed as seven-point favorite with a total of 61. The Razorbacks were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

-- This is Virginia Tech’s 24th consecutive postseason appearance. The Hokies have won back-to-back bowl games and three of their last four, including a 55-52 non-covering win over Tulsa as 14-point ‘chalk’ last year.

-- Virginia Tech won the ACC’s Coastal Division in the first season of Justin Fuente’s tenure. The Hokies appear to have found themselves a terrific coach to lead them into the future. Fuente’s team came up short against Clemson at the ACC Championship Game, but not without giving the Tigers fits for 60 minutes. Clemson won a 42-35 decision thanks to a Cordrea Tankersley interception of Jerod Evans in the red zone with 1:16 remaining. The Hokies took the cash as 11-point underdogs. Evans threw for 264 yards and one TD, in addition to rushing for 46 yards and a pair of scores. Cam Phillips brought down 12 catches for 92 yards and one TD, while Travon McMillan rushed seven times for 37 yards and two TDs.

-- Evans, a juco transfer, started all 13 games. He completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,309 yards with a 27/7 TD-INT ratio. Evans also rushed for a team-best 759 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.2 YPC. His favorite target was Isaiah Ford, who had 73 receptions for 1,038 yards and seven TDs. Phillips caught 70 balls for 868 yards and five TDs, while TE Bucky Hodges had 43 catches for 640 yards and seven TDs.

-- McMillan is the featured RB, rushing for 637 yards and six TDs with a 4.7 YPC average.

-- Virginia Tech owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

-- Virginia Tech’s best wins came at Pitt (39-36), vs. Miami (37-16), at North Carolina (34-3) and vs. Boston College (49-0). The Hokies lost vs. Tennessee (45-24), at Syracuse (31-17) and vs. Georgia Tech (30-20).

-- Virginia Tech is ranked 19th in the nation in total defense, 22nd versus the run and 28th in scoring defense (22.7 PPG).

-- Arkansas started the season 3-0, including a 41-38 overtime win at TCU as a 10.5-point underdog. However, the Razorbacks ineptitude in the red zone prompted a tie game late in the third quarter to turn into a 45-24 loss to Texas A&M at Jerry World in Arlington. They would trade a win for a loss in consecutive weeks for the rest of the season.

-- Arkansas (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) posted its best wins at TCU, vs. La. Tech (21-20), vs. Ole Miss (34-30), vs. Florida (31-10) and at Mississippi State (58-42). The win over UF was the first since Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992. The Gators came to Fayetteville with only one loss and off a blowout win over Georgia on Nov. 5. But on this day at War Memorial Stadium, it was all Hogs. They took the lead less than three minutes in on a 24-yard pick-six by Santos Ramirez and never relinquished it. UF managed only 241 yards of total offense and its second-ranked defense (at the time) allowed Arkansas to run for 223 yards and to produced 466 yards of total offense. Rawleigh Williams led the way with 148 rushing yards and two TDs on 26 attempts. Drew Morgan had seven receptions for 95 yards and one TD.

-- Arkansas has been an underdog seven times this year, posting a 3-4 record both SU and ATS.

-- Arkansas took its defeats vs. Texas A&M, vs. Alabama (49-30), at Auburn (56-3), vs. LSU (38-10) and at Missouri (28-24). The only loss from the ‘chalk’ role came in the regular-season finale when the Razorbacks went scoreless in the second half and allowed a 24-7 halftime advantage to disappear. In his first season as the starter replacing his older brother Brandon, Austin Allen had an excellent year for the most part. But in Columbia, his 348 passing yards couldn’t make up for a pair of costly interceptions.

-- Allen has completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 3,152 yards with a 23/12 TD-INT ratio. However, he was intercepted twice in the loss to LSU as well.

-- Allen is blessed with an outstanding set of WRs, including Keon Hatcher and Morgan. Hatcher has 38 receptions for 638 yards and seven TDs, while Morgan has 61 catches for 664 yards and three TDs. Jared Cornelius has 32 catches for 515 yards and four TDs, while TE Jeremy Sprinkle has 33 grabs for 380 yards and four TDs.

-- Williams rushed for 1,326 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.7 YPC average. His back-up, Devwah Whaley, has rushed for 601 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC.

-- Arkansas missed the postseason in Bret Bielema’s first season at the helm. Since then, the Razorbacks are 2-0 both SU and ATS in bowl games, including wins over Kansas St. (45-23) at last year’s Liberty Bowl and Texas (31-7) at the 2014 Texas Bowl.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Hogs, who saw their games average combined scores of 61.6 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Hokies after cashing in each of their last three outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 57.7 PPG.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Oklahoma State vs. Colorado**

-- The Valero Alamo Bowl will feature a pair of former Big 12 rivals as Colorado squares off against Oklahoma State at the Alamodome in San Antonio. As of early Wednesday, most books had Colorado (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 62.5. The Cowboys were +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).

-- Colorado is already assured of its first winning season since 2005. The Buffaloes, who went 5-40 in their first five years of Pac-12 play, have already bagged their first Pac-12 South title, too. Now they’re looking for their first postseason victory since 2004.

-- Mike MacIntyre was hired in 2013 after turning around a San Jose State program and leading the Trojans to an 11-2 record both SU and ATS in 2012. The first three seasons were rough, as the Buffaloes limped to a 10-27 record. They were picked to finish last in the Pac-12 South by basically every poll or publication that’s out there. But CU turned the corner this season in spectacular fashion. It started with blowout wins over Colorado State (44-7) and Idaho State (56-7). Then as a 17.5-point underdog in Week 3, the Buffs went to The Big House and immediately raced out to leads of 14-0 and 21-7 in the first quarter. Less than a minute into the third quarter, senior QB Sefo Liufau found Shay Fields for a 70-yard scoring strike to put CU back in front of Michigan by a 28-24 score. However, Liufau injured his ankle on the play and would miss the rest of the game and the next two contests. Without their senior leader, the Buffs stalled offensively with back-up QB Steven Montez failing to complete a pass on seven attempts. Nevertheless, CU still covered the spread in the 45-28 loss.

-- With the redshirt freshman Montez as the starter, CU went to Eugene and knocked off Oregon 41-38 as a 14-point underdog. Next, the Buffs stroked Oregon State 47-6 as 17.5-point home ‘chalk.’ With a 2-0 mark in Pac-12 action, MacIntyre’s squad went to USC and lost a hard-fought 21-17 decision. Even in defeat, CU hooked up its betting supporters as a five-point road underdog.

-- Colorado would respond to the loss at USC by winning six consecutive games to earn a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game in Santa Clara against Washington. CU’s most notable victories came at Stanford (10-5), vs. Washington State (38-24) and vs. Utah (27-22).

-- The Pac-12 Championship Game was a disappointment, though, as UW rolled to a 41-10 win as an 8.5-point favorite. The Huskies led 14-7 at intermission, but they dominated the second half starting with a 35-yard pick-six on the second play of the third quarter. Liufau was intercepted three times and CU generated merely 163 yards of total offense.

-- The CU offense relies heavily on junior RB Phillip Lindsay, who rushed for 1,189 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. He also has 47 catches for 390 yards and one TD.

-- Liufau became the school’s all-time leader in passing yards back in September. For the season, he completed 62.8 percent of his passes for 2,171 yards with an 11/6 TD-INT ratio. Liufau also makes plays with his legs, rushing for 494 yards and seven TDs.

-- Fields has made 52 catches for 845 yards and nine TDs, while Devin Ross hauled in 66 receptions for 765 yards and five TDs. Bryce Bobo has 41 catches for 523 yards and two TDs. Bobo is listed as ‘questionable’ for the bowl game due to a leg injury that kept him out of the Pac-12 Championship Game.

-- CU went 2-0 ATS in its only spots as a single-digit favorite this year.

-- Colorado is ranked 16th in the country in total defense, 12th against the pass and 19th in scoring defense (20.5 PPG).

-- Oklahoma State (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) is gunning for a fifth season with a double-digit win total in the last seven years. The Cowboys are bowling for the 11th straight season under Mike Gundy, who has a 103-50 record since taking over in Stillwater. The Cowboys have played in the Alamo Bowl four times, beating Arizona 36-10 in its last visit here in 2010. They made it to the Sugar Bowl last year, falling 48-20 to Ole Miss.

-- OSU started the season 2-2, losing a controversial 30-27 decision to Central Michigan as a 17.5-point home favorite on a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. The second defeat came at Baylor by a 35-24 count in Week 4. After that, however, Gundy’s club ripped off seven straight wins while going 5-2 ATS. The regular season ended on a down note, though, when Oklahoma won 38-20 as a 12-point home ‘chalk’ in the Bedlam rivalry.

-- OSU has been an underdog five times, producing a 3-2 record both SU and ATS with wins at TCU (31-6), at Kansas State (43-37) and vs. West Virginia (37-20).

-- Other notable wins on Oklahoma St.’s resume include a 45-38 home win over Pittsburgh and a 49-31 home win over Texas.

-- OSU junior QB Mason Rudolph had a sensational season, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 3,777 yards with a remarkable 25/4 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for six TDs.

-- OSU’s featured RB is true freshman Justice Hill, who rushed for 1,042 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. Chris Carson ran for 498 yards and eight TDs with a 7.0 YPC average. Carson also had 13 receptions for 128 yards and one TD.

-- Rudolph throws to a deep set of WRs led by junior James Washington, who brought down 62 balls for 1,209 yards and nine TDs. Jalen McCleskey had 69 catches for 762 yards and seven TDs, while Jhajuan Seales had 34 grabs for 572 yards and three TDs.

-- OSU has won three of its last four head-to-head meetings with Colorado and owns an 8-1 record in its last nine games against Pac-12 foes.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Cowboys despite seeing back-to-back ‘unders’ to close the regular season. Their games have averaged combined scores of 66.8 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ went 8-5 overall for CU, cashing at a 7-2 clip in its last nine contests. The Buffs saw their games average combined scores of 53.3 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Bowl Action

Alamo Bowl (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Odds: Colorado (-3); Total set at 62.5

Two programs that may be still lamenting about what could have been in 2016 meet in the Alamo Bowl on Thursday night as both Colorado and Oklahoma State are looking to shake off defeats in their respective conference championship games.

Colorado was blown out by playoff-bound Washington 41-10 in the Pac-12 Title game, while Oklahoma State lost 38-20 to rival Oklahoma in the Big 12. Neither school would have likely vaulted into the playoffs with a win there, but a win in this bowl game by either side would likely have them finish the campaign ranked in the Top 10.

While finishing in the Top 10 for the year would be nice, it's tough to imagine either side is thrilled about being in a bowl game prior to New Year's Eve. Colorado and OK State have had about a month to lick their wounds from those losses, but no matter what happens in the Alamo Bowl, both programs will consider 2016 a success when they look back on it.

For Colorado, going 10-3 SU and being one of the best bets at 10-3 ATS was a surprise to many as they were projected to be near the basement in the Pac-12. Hopefully this program can piggyback of 2016's success in the years to come, and if you had to isolate one side that would be more enthused about being in a Bowl game it would have to be the Buffaloes.

Colorado hasn't experienced post-season play since the 2007 Independence Bowl, as this will be the first time they finish a season with a winning record since 2005. Even then that year saw Colorado finish 7-6 SU, so getting to 11 wins would be quite an accomplishment.

The Buffaloes rode the play of their talented defense all year long and although they got dissected by Washington last time out, if Colorado is to win the Alamo Bowl, it will be on the backs of their defense being able to rebound.

Oklahoma State is known more for their offense, but you don't win seven of your final eight games of the year without strong play on both sides of the ball. The Cowboys were dismantled by Oklahoma in the stats and on the scoreboard in their last outing and with a month to prepare and get healthy, we should expect a much better performance from them here.

With a 4-0 ATS mark after failing to cover a spread, and a 4-1 ATS run against a winning opponent, grabbing the points with OK State is a viable betting option, but doing that means you are stepping in front of a great money-making team in Colorado with their 10-3 ATS record. The Buffaloes are also 6-1 ATS after failing to score 20 points and 7-2 ATS in their last nine against a winning team as well.

So it's to the total that I'm turning to in a game that has questionable motivation on both sides and two wounded defenses looking to rebound. Getting to 63 points might be tough here given those scenarios as the Colorado defense only gives up 20.5 points/game and OK State is about a score worse at 28.1/game.

Either way, those averages add up to well below the posted total here, and with Colorado on a 2-10 O/U run after losing by 20+ points, and OK State 1-5-1 O/U in their last seven December games, points may be a little harder to come by then expected.

I touched on the fact that both defenses will be looking to rebound after failing to show up in the biggest game of the year last time out, and knowing the talent each team has on that side of the ball, a month to gameplan for this contest will only further their cause.

With betting percentage numbers showing over 85% of the action on this total coming in on the 'over' and the number not even budging a half-point, going against the majority should be the winning play here.

Best Bet: Take Under 62.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 29


SOUTH FLORIDA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Birmingham Bowl)...Muschamp just 5-7 vs. line this season, 14-21-1 last 36 on board with his Florida and Gamecock teams. Muschamp 3-5 as dog this season. USF 17-7-1 vs. spread since last season, 11-3-1 as chalk that span.

South Florida, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Belk Bowl)...Bielema has won and covered bowls past two years, also 13-6 as dog past three seasons (though just 4-4 TY). VPI finished season with covers in its last three but failed to cover four of last five as chalk this term.

Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE vs. COLORADO (Alamo Bowl)...Old Big XII rivals have not met since 2009. Coach Mac has never coached in a bowl (left SJSU before 2012 Military Bowl). Buffs dropped last two vs. line TY but still 10-3 vs. spread this season and 15-5 last 20 on board. Gundy 3-5 vs. spread last eight bowls, only 2-2 as dog this season.

Colorado, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Bowl game writeups

Dec 29
Birmingham Bowl: South Florida-South Carolina
SEC teams won/covered this game as favorites last four years; now the SEC team is underdog here. USF coach Taggart is off to Oregon; not a big fan of laying double digits with a team whose coach skipped town. Bulls are 10-2 despite allowing 42+ points four times. USF is 6-3-1 as a favorite this season, 3-2-1 in games with double digit spread. Bulls lost 55-35 to Florida State, a team with SEC-type speed. South Carolina is 6-6, with five losses by 11+ points; they’re 3-5 as underdogs this year, 2-4 in games with double digit spread. Gamecocks won/covered last four bowls, scoring 30.3 pts/game, but that was with Spurrier as coach. USF won three of last four bowls, but LY’s 45-35 loss to WKU was their first bowl since ’10. Mobile QB Flowers is great on broken plays, but will he be as effective against a defense with SEC speed? AAC teams are 2-0-1 as a favorite vs SEC teams the last four years.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte: Arkansas-Virginia Tech
SEC teams beat ACC teams in this game 51-28/37-14 last two years; favorites won/covered last four Belk Bowls. Arkansas was 4-5 in last nine games after a 3-0 start; Razorbacks are 4-4 as underdogs this year, 4-3 in games with single digit spread- they’re 3-1 in games decided by 4 or less points. Virginia Tech won five of last seven games; they’re 5-4 as a favorite, 4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hokies allowed 30+ points in four of last six games. Bielema is 4-4 in bowls, 2-0 here; Arkansas won its last three bowls, scoring 35 pts/game- favorites covered their last four bowls. Va Tech won three of last four bowls; Fuente won his only bowl at Memphis. ACC non-conference favorites are 12-6 vs spread this season; SEC underdogs are 5-3. Last three Tech games went over total.

Alamo Bowl, San Antonio: Oklahoma State-Colorado
Colorado DC Leavitt bolted for Oregon, big loss for Buffs, who made quantum leap this year, are in first bowl since 2007- their last bowl win was in ’04. Colorado was 35-88 the last 10 years, are 10-3 this year; Buffs are 5-2 as favorites, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Oklahoma State won seven of last eight games after a 2-2 start; Cowboys are 3-2 as an underdog. 5-1 in games with single digit spread. Gundy is 6-4 in bowl games, 3-2 in last five, with average total of 68.6. Big X teams are 3-2 vs Pac-12 teams in last five Alamo Bowls; favorites are 3-2 vs spread in last five, with average total of 76.2. Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 7-9 vs spread; Big X underdogs are 2-4. Over is 5-3 in last eight OSU games, 2-7 in last nine Colorado games. Would expect Oklahoma State to have crowd edge; they recruit a lot in Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

The field for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park is starting to come into shape with the addition of Keen Ice, who has been confirmed as a starter.

The Pegasus will be contested on Saturday, Jan.28.

His owners, Donegal Racing have reached an agreement with one of the groups that paid $1 million for a starting spot in what will be the world’s richest race. The brothers Jerry and Ronnie Frankel have been searching for their horse for the Pegasus and they found a pretty good one.

Keen Ice has earned $2,387,245 but has won just twice in his 19 career starts. However, one of those wins was in the 2015 Travers (G1) where he beat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

He was a distant third in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and tuned up for the Pegasus with a runner up finish in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 17.

Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate was confirmed for Sunday’s $200,000 San Pasqual (G2) at Santa Anita and if all goes well he too will be pointed to the Pegasus.

A California Chrome versus Arrogate rematch will make the inaugural running of the Pegasus an instant hit, and it looks as if we are going to get it.

Also, conformed for the race is Argentinian import Eragon and Shaman Ghost for the Jimmy Jerkens barn.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $16,000 (12:35 ET)
#5 Over Limit 5-2
#1 Thanks God 3-1
#8 Caddy Cat 8-1
#6 Overdone 10-1

Analysis: Over Limit was outrun early and did not have any punch as the beaten chalk last out against $20,000 claimers and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $16,000. Two back against $35,000 starter optional claimers in his first go against winners he was a decent fourth, earning a speed fig good enough to beat this group handily. He broke his maiden for a $50,000 tag three back in his second career start on poly. Best of a weak group.

Thanks God had a rough trip last out in a seventh-place finish against $16,000 claimers last out. The colt was caught in tight quarters near the half mile pole, was stuck behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch and did not have enough punch left late when finally clear.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,6,8
TRI: 1,5 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,4,5,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:02 ET)
#7 Elysea's World 8-5
#2 Stay the Night 9-2
#3 Verbouwen 4-1
#4 Trigger Finger 6-1

Analysis: Elysea's World drops out of graded stakes company for her first start off a three-month break. The Brown barn is 26% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. This gal beat Alw-1 foes in her U.S. debut and was a solid second in the Lake George (G2) at the Spa in July. She then was fourth in the Lake Placid (G2) behind three very good turf fillies and last out was up close to the pace and faded to finish sixth in the Sands Point (G2). The class relief and the freshening makes this filly tough to beat in this spot as the chalk.

Stay the Night is coming off a runner up finish at the Big A at 1 3/8 miles last out on turf. The Shug trainee was rated while saving ground and then got stuck behind a wall of runners, finally found a small seam to squeeze through but it was too late to catch the gate to wire winner. She is 0 for 3 at this level since coming to the U.S. but has some back class, running third in a Group 3 in France last year. A clean trip puts her in the mix in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #8 Caddy Cat 8-1
R1: #6 Overdone 10-1
R2: #7 Harambe 8-1
R4: #3 Ola Yola 10-1
R5: #6 Fearless Princess 10-1
R6: #2 Summer Scamp 8-1
R7: #10 Alls Well 12-1
R9: #8 Joey Six Pack 10-1
R10: #1 Elloree Gal 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 95 - Purse:$20000 - OPEN HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 1 & 2 ASSIGNED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 ARQUE HANOVER 2/1
# 2 WHATABOY 6/1
# 3 JUST A JOLT 10/1

ARQUE HANOVER sure does look ready to dominate. The consortium knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This standardbred will unlock our way to a nice victory. It's somewhat risky to consider based only on class, but this horse has among the most competitive class ratings of the group of animals. Loved this horse's last race. Ran a strong 98 speed fig. Major player. WHATABOY - Cannot put a finger on it, but favor this gelding for a wager. JUST A JOLT - Might be there at a fair price tag. Clearly one to keep in your exotics. Clear-cut driver/trainer ratings make this contender a very strong choice. Very likely will be putting money down here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6800 - GUARANTEED $10,000 PICK 4 STARTS HERE $20,000 GUARANTED TRIFECTA POOL NON WINNERS $4000 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $45,000 IN 2016. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD HN 2 ACTING CAPTAIN & HN 7 IF IT RAINS - ELIGIBLE AT TIME OF ENTRY HN 4 & HN UNCOUPLED DUE TO BONAFIDE SEPARATE OWNERSHIP
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 IF IT RAINS 9/5
# 3 RIVER VALLEY PEARL 12/1
# 9 AIRGUITAR ROCKSTAR 3/1

IF IT RAINS has a competitive shot to take this race. The knowledge group knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice ultimate prize. He has nice class stats, averaging 84. Should be considered for a bet in this one. Wrenn is racking up the wins recently. Stellar win pct makes this standardbred our selection. RIVER VALLEY PEARL - Top notch in the money statistic for Headworth and this fine animal. A great probability to get the win. AIRGUITAR ROCKSTAR - Feel the need for speed, this contender has been turning in some outstanding speed figures averaging around 81. Good for a win wager just off the top notch prior class figures. Have to like this entrant.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 AARON OF GOSHEN 7/2

# 5 FIDDLERS DANCE 2/1

# 9 HERO'S DIVIDE 5/1

AARON OF GOSHEN is the top bet in this race. He has put up strong figs under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. Overall the speed figures of this racer look formidable in this competition. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 3 out of 13 in his races lately. FIDDLERS DANCE - With a reliable 69 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Is hard not to look at based on speed figures which have been formidable - 69 avg - of late. HERO'S DIVIDE - Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this field. Always difficult to beat Breaux and Saenz working together, winning 22 percent of their races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 97

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 MONTY HAUL 5/2

# 8 I'M ZONIN 9/2

# 3 FRAME 12/1

MONTY HAUL looks like the wager in here. He has put up very good figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this group. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 97 - of his last race. A solid 98 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. I'M ZONIN - This gelding has been consistently racing well in his latest outings. He should be considered given the formidable speed figs. FRAME - Solid profits have been scored by investors using this jockey and conditioner twosome lately. Ought to go to the lead and should never look back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#8 BIG ALICE (ML=5/2)


BIG ALICE - The ROI when Orozco and Sherman partner up is tremendous. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a nice contest within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HIGHLAND ROSE (ML=3/1), #1 LAST MINUTE (ML=4/1), #5 CHARLIE MY LOVE (ML=9/2),

HIGHLAND ROSE - Tough to put your cash on the win end of any mount that finishes second and third as often as this participant does. This filly didn't do too much last time. Recorded a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on December 3rd. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating. LAST MINUTE - This mount hasn't been near the winner at the finish of late. CHARLIE MY LOVE - This filly finished outside the top 3 on November 11th and wasn't close last time out either. This mount likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually finish on top. Forget the top spot.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #8 BIG ALICE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #9 - Post: 4:55pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#9 HAPPY MORO (ML=5/1)


HAPPY MORO - The return on investment when Hernandez and Martinez team up is outstanding. This gelding is in good form, having run a nice race on Dec 16th, finishing first. Hernandez comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 THUNDERGRAM (ML=3/1), #2 OFFLEE FUN (ML=4/1), #7 KID PARADISE (ML=9/2),

THUNDERGRAM - Last effort was too nice. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'strong performance bounce' this time around. OFFLEE FUN - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the job executed occasionally. Earned a pedestrian speed fig last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on December 16th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number. KID PARADISE - This horse likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Don't play in the top spot. Never really did much at all last race out on December 16th. Hard to wager on in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HAPPY MORO - Has been racing regularly since a layoff. According to my data, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this horse today.
*

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #9 HAPPY MORO to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Thursday 12/29 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 61 - 209 / $300.00 (-$118.00)

BEST BETS: 7 - 17 / $19.00 (-$15.00)

Best Bet: SPORTSMUFFLER (2nd)

Spot Play: ROCKIN ROBERT (6th)


Race 1

(2) BLUEBIRD KIDSQUEEN is hardly a horse that makes you want to run to the windows, but the more I look at the rest of the field, the more she seems as attractive as any at a decent price. All of her recent lines come from undesirable posts at Yonkers. (3) EXPRESSIVE ACTION dropped to this level and was dealt with a poor post last time. He is in a new barn now, one with a lackluster record here but capable of an upset. (8) WINDSUN FIREBALL has early speed and Brett Miller, so you know he'll be in play.

Race 2

(7) SPORTSMUFFLER drops back down to the level of her last victory and adds 'Super' Brett to the equation; clear chalk. (1) SILOUETTE has some early speed in her arsenal and could stick close to the top choice for a big check. (8) JOKES JET is fast enough to play with these but drew to the outside of the favorite. (3) VICTORIA MAY N should take some tote action but I'm not crazy about the 1-13 record here the last three years.

Race 3

(8) HILL I AM wasn't exactly given a great chance of success when he bottled up along the cones last time. This field may be slightly tougher but I'm given him another shot to show more early life. (7) HALL PASS HELEN has been racing well of late and owns a solid record here in 2016; must use. (5) ELLENS STREAK will attract plenty of attention on the driver change off an amateur pilot, but this mare really hasn't been as sharp as she was a month ago. (1) BAD DAY BLACK ROCK drops down and adds Brett Miller, who steered him to a win four starts back. On the bad side, he is 0 for 9 here the last three years.

Race 4

Here's another race where I just don't like any of the entrants. I'll roll the dice with (4) MELANIES SHARKETTE, who drops in claiming price for a new high percentage barn. (7) HARPER LEE already has one upset at this level on his PP lines. Why can't he do it again? (2) ST LADS MORGAN was sharp before missing the last four weeks of action. (10) PAYDAZE ON THE WAY has speed and Brett Miller. (9) FORBETTOR OR WORSE hasn't raced that well here but tends to be close enough to menace.

Race 5

(4) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT has behaved with hobbles added and now gets Lasix as well in an attempt to right the ship. If he brings anything close to a top effort, he wins. (5) A LISTER has missed some time but seems likely to be put in play against a mostly suspect group. (9) STAYING FOCUSED reunites with Andy Miller. (3) TEA PARTY POLITICS has no form but drops in class. I'm leaning against using him but can understand if you want him on your multi-race tickets.

Race 6

I loved (3) ROCKIN ROBERT's recent qualifier as he sprinted home full of life. Barn knows how to have them ready to pop. (8) SANTANNA STAR has plenty of early speed in his tank and should make some noise. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO closed well as usual two weeks back. If Marohn can keep him close, watch out. (6) MARTY MONKHOUSER A continues to step down the class ladder. The last time he was at The Meadowlands was against three classes higher.

Race 7

(4) STEADY WARRIOR sports a lackluster 0 for 15 record here over the last few years, but was in against better than he faces tonight in most of those starts. He is more than capable of beating this group at a fair price. (6) AUCKLAND FLYER moves into a new barn and is instantly eligible to improve. (1) ARTS ON FIRE is another entering the Johnson barn from Freitas. Maybe check to see how Melanies Sharkette does in race 4 with a similar change. (9) Q ROCK gets a driver change and should be showing plenty of early speed.

Race 8

(8) ROCK STAR faces softer competition this week and just a few starts back romped versus a field that wasn't that much better than this group. I don't select Steve Smith often here, but this looks like a fine price play. (6) HERE COMES SWIFTY wasn't involved in his first start for this barn here last time. He appears to be in the same class but is actually faces easier foes. (4) THAT'S MY OPINION lured Ginsburg off of my top pick but he is too inconsistent to trust at anything under double-digit odds. (5) SIR SAMS Z TAM qualified back rather nicely a week ago.

Race 9

(2) TWINCREEKS JESSE is my uninspired selection in a field lacking much form. He raced reasonably well in his last trip here and the inside post should afford him the chance for a good journey. (7) SAPIENT HANOVER arrives for trainer Ron Burke. In a field like this a Burke trainee is always worth a shot. (4) I FOUND MY BEACH was impeded last time and raced well prior to that start.

Race 10

(4) MUST BE THE BUNNY isn't a horse I'll vault to my top pick often, but this field appears to be loaded with early speed potential and if positioned properly he can run them down at good odds. (1) MAJOR BUBBLES N looks like the one to beat with Miller in the bike; expect short odds. (9) DRUNKEN TERROR has form. Can he overcome the tough draw. (5) OUR CULLENSCROWN N is another racing well; early speed player.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (6th) Princessofthieves, 4-1
(9th) Rosa Dorata, 3-1


Charles Town (3rd) Zorre, 4-1
(5th) Tiger’s Cave, 5-1


Delta Downs (2nd) Retrofit, 5-1
(6th) Jobay, 4-1


Fair Grounds (2nd) Honor River, 6-1
(6th) Kiss the Toad, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (5th) Emmett Park, 7-2
(8th) Adaptability, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (9th) Aggressive Driver, 9-2
(10th) Bettabe Fast, 4-1


Hawthorne (5th) French Minded, 3-1
(9th) Thundergram, 3-1


Penn National (3rd) Natalie’s Angel, 3-1
(5th) Athena in Flight, 5-1


Santa Anita (2nd) Magic Taste, 9-2
(5th) Ssea Smoke, 6-1


Turfway Park (4th) El Bonito, 7-2
(7th) Bella Be Proud, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Odds to win this year’s NBA championship……

— Golden State Warriors -$140

— Cleveland Cavaliers 11-5

— San Antonio Spurs 9-2

— Los Angeles Clippers 10-1

— Toronto Raptors/Boston Celtics 22-1

— Houston Rockets/Oklahoma City Thunder 40-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, December 29, 2016 8:05 PM EST

(505) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (506) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, December 29, 2016 comes in the NBA battle between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Grizzlies in Memphis. Oklahoma City plays its best offense at home, at 20-7 under the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Memphis is a strong defensive team, #3 in the NBA in points allowed, #4 in field goal shooting defense. Memphis is 13-3 under the total at home and the Under is 10-4 in the Grizzlies last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play Oklahoma City/Memphis Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: THURS Evansville +9 CBB

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

Oklahoma State vs Colorado

Bonus Play Oklahoma State (#255)

Let me start by giving Colorado credit, before I make the case for betting against the Buffs in the Alamo Bowl. The Buffs had gone 11-38 SU over the previous four seasons heading into the 2016 campaign. Their last bowl appearance came back in 2007 against Alabama, in Nick Saban’s first year on the job with the Crimson Tide.

But head coach Mike MacIntyre – the architect of a significant program turnaround at San Jose State – did it again with the Buffs this season, guiding Colorado to a 10-3 record, both SU and ATS. That 10-3 ATS mark was tied for the second best pointspread record in the country – for most of the season Colorado was an undervalued commodity.

That being said, no Colorado player has been to a bowl game before. MacIntyre deserves serious ‘Coach of the Year’ consideration, but the biggest bowl game he’s coached at the collegiate level was the Military Bowl against Bowling Green in his stint at San Jose State. Colorado did not execute well in their biggest game this year, a blowout loss to Washington in the PAC-12 title game. And it’s surely worth noting that both of Colorado’s previous losses this season came against teams with offensive playmakers, Michigan and USC.

Colorado’s offense can only be described as ‘pedestrian’. Senior QB Sefo Liufau has battled injuries, throwing only eleven touchdowns in his senior season. RB Philip Lindsay is a workhorse, not a gamebreaker. No receiver had more than 850 receiving yards and top WR playmaker Shay Fields had only two catches longer than 30 yards in his last ten games. This team relies on their defense to stay in games, but that defense is likely to be challenged here!

Oklahoma State has the type of offensive playmakers that the Buffs defense has struggled to stop. QB Mason Rudolph has an NFL future, with an impressive 25-4 TD-INT ratio while averaging a full nine yards per pass attempt for the season. RB’s Justice Hill and Chris Carson have combined to average just shy of six yards per carry, while WR James Washington is drawing Cowboy alumnus Dez Bryant comparisons for his downfield playmaking ability, averaging a whopping 19.5 yards per catch. Jalen McCleskey, Jhajuan Seales and Chris Lacy caught 13 TD’s between them as well, a deep and dynamic receiving corps!

Unlike the bowl virgins from Boulder, Mike Gundy’s Cowboys will be playing in their 11th consecutive bowl game. The Cowboys got thumped 48-20 by Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl last year, an ugly and embarrassing New Year’s Day defeat. From all indications, the Cowboys have redemption on their minds and some giddy-up in their step, facing a team they can beat this time around! Take Oklahoma State.