Thursday 12/18/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 10 FINAL FOREST 3/1


# 2 TOWN OF TOWNS 6/1


# 1 MR. PRANKSTER 10/1


My choice in this contest is FINAL FOREST. Could beat this field given the 99 speed fig garnered in his last outing. Solid jockey with conditioner figs make this horse a sharp wagering choice. TOWN OF TOWNS - His 92 average has this gelding with among the top Speed Figures in this event. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Reynolds running at this distance are the best in this field. MR. PRANKSTER - Earned a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. I would favor this horse on the rider and handler numbers alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 93

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR WAIVER CLAIMING OR MD SIRED STAKES OR MD BRED STAKES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000-$20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 EDDY GOURMET 7/2


# 7 DOWNTOWN HOTTIE 8/1


# 5 STORMIN WENDY 9/5


My choice in this race is EDDY GOURMET. Looks very strong to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Tough to pass on this filly with Acosta in the irons. This pony has a fantastic win percent in dirt sprints. DOWNTOWN HOTTIE - Should hit the board without any worries. With a reliable 73 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. STORMIN WENDY - Has raced admirably in dirt sprint races. Vaunts solid Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 2:25pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,700 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 IB'S MYSTERY (ML=5/2)
#1 GANESHA (ML=5/1)
#5 FAST ALICE (ML=9/2)


IB'S MYSTERY - This jockey fits well with this horse. The filly and Cosme together win at a rate of 60 percent. This rider and handler's horses have been generating a beneficial return on investment. Not much early speed in this race other than this racer. The 81 most recent race speed rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. This horse's last 3 speed figs (82, 83, 81) are equal to or higher than today's class rating. That's good enough for me. GANESHA - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Perez. Coming off a fourth place finish at Hawthorne, some may skip this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty decent odds today. FAST ALICE - That last morning drill tells me this filly is set for a top performance. Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a solid contest last time around the track within the last thirty days. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TAKE WHAT YOU CAN (ML=3/1), #4 LYDIA'S ANGEL (ML=5/1), #3 THUNDERING HOOFS (ML=6/1),

TAKE WHAT YOU CAN - When looking at today's Equibase class figure, she will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint. LYDIA'S ANGEL - In the last event this entrant finished sixth. Doesn't look promising for her chances in today's event. THUNDERING HOOFS - This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last pair of contests.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 IB'S MYSTERY to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,500 Class Rating: 60

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SWEET MISCHIEF (ML=6/1)


SWEET MISCHIEF - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +620. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. Getting a break of 7 lbs from last race at Turfway Park. She should make the most of this advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 NO MORE APPLES (ML=3/1), #5 BETTER BY FAR (ML=4/1), #11 INDY BONES (ML=5/1),

NO MORE APPLES - This stretch-runner looks to have no chance without an early battle up front. BETTER BY FAR - Will probably be way back with too much to do in the homestretch. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class figure. INDY BONES - This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 SWEET MISCHIEF to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 12/18 analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MACH SOME NOISE (3rd)

Spot Play: DRAGON SEELSTER (10th)


Race 1

(9) P L HOUDINI is due for his first career win and capable of overcoming the outside. He should offer a healthy price in the opener. (6) SUPERFLEX made a miscue in his latest, but raced well in the Autumn Series and will offer a short price. (8) TAROT qualified well in his latest for trainer/driver Rekila and shows the speed for this class.

Race 2

(6) BLACK VINNY qualified sharply for McNair and appears ready for his first career start. (4) NINETYMILE HANOVER draws well, has terrific gate speed and comes from the Auciello barn. (7) TERROR OF THE NITE comes from the Vanderkemp barn and qualified well in his latest. He may offer a price and appears ready for his career debut.

Race 3

(5) MACH SOME NOISE draws in the middle of the gate and has won four of her last five. (9) WITCH DALI was the other division winner from last week and will get attention in here. (10) ARTISTIC FUSION will have to overcome post 10 once again this week, but is versatile and has hit the board in each of his last four.

Race 4

(6) WEEKLY SPECIAL will make his second career start, draws in the middle of the gate and closed very well in her latest. She's ready to win her first career start. (3) PUT YOUR BAD ON raced very well to finish third last week in her career debut and is capable of an improved effort this week. (5) MYSTERY WRITER disappointed as on overwhelming favorite last week and will look to bounce back.

Race 5

(1) ETRUSCAN HANOVER draws the rail, comes from the Baillargeon barn and will offer a short price. (8) UTOPIA has hit the board in two of his last three, comes from the Puddy barn and gets Henry in the bike. (2) MUSICAL SPELL closed very strong last week to finish second at 44-1. He's a price play in this dash.

Race 6

(8) LIKEAVIRGIN was an impressive winner last week for trainer Cirasuola and remains at the same level. (6) GREYSTONE MOE draws well this week and has won this class in two of his last four starts. (7) SHOOTER ONTHELOOSE comes from the Puddy barn again and has hit the board in three of his last four.

Race 7

(3) GRANITE BLOSSOM was a winner last week in this class, draws inside and gets Jamieson back in the bike. (8) SOMEWHERE FAMEOUS has hit the board in each of her last two starts and comes from the McNair barn. (1) HIGHLAND SWEETLUCK draws the rail and raced very well to finish second last week in her career debut. She's a threat with Allard back in the bike.

Race 8

(6) E R TRUEVALUE has put together a solid overall record this season with nine wins and is a good option in this wide-open field. (1) BIG TURN ON draws the rail, comes from the Baillargeon barn and should offer a healthy price. (7) CAPELO closed well last week to finish fifth and draws better this week. He's a threat with a better post.

Race 9

(1) MUSCLE BOYTOY comes from the Moreau barn, gets the rail and has put together a solid overall record this season. (5) ULTIMATE RED is fresh off a win at 6-1 in this class and went gate-to-wire. (9) EARLY HIT has hit the board in each of his last three starts and gets Baillargeon in the bike.

Race 10

(1) DRAGON SEELSTER draws the rail, has the speed and will make his second start on Lasix. He's a good option if the price is right. (4) PASSIONATE KISSER comes from the Remmen barn and put up a big effort last week. He'll offer another low price in here. (2) NEW PATROL comes from the Brealey barn, draws inside and has been finishing off his miles very well.

Race 11

(7) LETS WAIT AND SEE finished second last week in this class and has put together a solid overall record this season. He has the speed and may offer a healthy price. (3) WATERSIDE LIGHT comes from the Moreau barn, re-enters this circuit and draws inside. (10) BRIGHT FUTURE will need to overcome post 10, but shows gate speed, comes from the Baillargeon barn and has hit the board in two of his last three.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Charles Town (2nd) Hello Govnor, 7-2
(4th) Nashly Love, 4-1

Delta Downs (3rd) Wesley's Dream, 6-1
(9th) Tough Jeans, 4-1

Fair Grounds (1st) King Bandit, 3-1
(7th) Know You Now, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (3rd) Harbor the Dream, 4-1
(9th) More Than a Party, 3-1


Hawthorne (6th) Viva Wildwood, 3-1
(8th) Lethal, 3-1


Laurel Park (5th) Compulsive, 9-2
(9th) Summer Court, 9-2


Los Alamitos (5th) Dreamy Kid, 4-1
(6th) Tough Sunday, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Pearl of Wisdom, 4-1
(9th) Eldarion, 4-1


Turfway Park (1st) Better By Far, 4-1
(7th) Lilly Potter, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL 'Dog Bengals help books
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Much like Week 12, NFL teasers again victimized Vegas sportsbooks on Sunday. Favorites went 11-3 straight-up in Week 14 games on Sunday and 6-6-2 against the spread, covering the number on 6-point teasers in 10 of 14 games. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, summed up Sunday’s NFL betting action at his property in two words – “not good.”

The Kansas City Chiefs (-11), Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), New York Giants (-7), New York Jets (-3.5), Denver Broncos (-4.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-10) were among the favorites that were bet up at The Wynn. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks were the only team of that group not to cover easily but did allow bettors to cash teasers on both them and their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, in a 17-7 win.

“We got hurt in teasers,” Avello said. “The Chiefs game was no good. That game I opened 11, the sharp guys took the 11 and the 10.5, and the house guys laid the 10 and the 10.5 going back up for much more. The Giants was a big game for me. I needed the Redskins, game went from (New York) 6 to 7, obviously they played well at times but not well enough to cover the spread.
“I had mostly Steeler money. The Jets game was a loser, went from 1 to 3.5. Broncos was a loser. The Seahawks, I had big money laying 9.5, so when I went to 10, all that money I gave back got sided on that game. After you hear my story, it doesn’t sound good, does it?”

Two of the three underdogs to win straight-up ended up costing The Wynn as well, including the Dallas Cowboys knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles 38-27 on Sunday Night Football. “The Cowboy game, I needed the Eagles,” said Avello, who closed Dallas at +3.5 (+100).

The second underdog that bit The Wynn was the Buffalo Bills, opening as 5.5-point home underdogs and getting bet down to +3.5 before beating the Green Bay Packers, 21-13. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the season with just 185 passing yards and two interceptions, raising his season total to five. The Bills guaranteed themselves a .500 season for the first time since 2004 and ended a five-game winning streak for the Packers, who were Super Bowl favorites heading into Buffalo.

“Green Bay game was a loser for me, went from 5.5 to 3.5,” Avello said. “I was very disappointed in Green Bay. They lost the game, and that happens. But I didn’t like dropping passes, the Jordy Nelson pass. They just don’t do that kind of stuff.”

The third underdog winner – the Cincinnati Bengals – actually helped The Wynn because the public was in love with Johnny Manziel making his first career start for the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at The Wynn, but bettors made Cleveland 2.5-point home chalk by kickoff. The Bengals ended up blanking the Browns 30-0 for the biggest victory on Sunday as Manziel flopped.

“The Bengal game was a good game, went from 1.5 Bengals to 2.5 Browns,” said Avello, who said last Friday that he did not understand the line move. “That game turned out well for us. Sometimes you see things right, sometimes you don’t. But that one did go kind of the way we talked about.”

The second-biggest win on the scoreboard Sunday involved the New England Patriots, who blew out the Miami Dolphins 41-13, turning a close game at halftime into a rout with a 27-0 second half. However, New England’s ninth victory in 10 games that clinched the team’s 11th AFC East title in 12 years did not crush The Wynn as badly as it hurt Miami’s playoff chances.

“The Patriot game was an interesting game for me,” Avello said. “I opened (the Patriots) at 8.5, I went as low as 7.5 and then back to 8. I had Miami money mostly, and I had a bunch of teasers on the Patriots.

“The game was ok because it didn’t fall in the middle there. If it fell in the middle, we’d have to pay everybody, so that one worked out ok.””

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jaguars made rare favorites

TENNESSEE TITANS (2-12) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-12)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Jacksonville -3, Total: 40

Two division foes who have been extremely disappointing with 2-12 records, will clash on Thursday night when the Titans visit Jaguars.

Both AFC South teams will likely be picking in the top five of the NFL draft after a truly miserable 2014 campaign. Tennessee lost its eighth straight game (2-6 ATS) last week in a 16-11 home defeat to the Jets. Meanwhile Jacksonville fell to 1-6 SU in in its past seven games with a 20-12 loss in Baltimore, but was a 14-point road underdog which gave the club two ATS wins in the past three games.

Earlier in the year, the Titans picked up one of their two SU victories in a 16-14 win over the Jaguars as 4-point home favorites. Over the past three seasons, Tennessee leads this series 3-2 SU, but Jacksonville is 3-1-1 ATS in those games. The last two meetings played in Jacksonville in this head-to-head series have gone Under the total. In terms of betting trends for Thursday, in the past three seasons, the Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in home games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. However, the Titans are 0-7 ATS on the road after scoring 14 points or less in their previous game in that timeframe.

DE Andre Branch (groin) is doubtful for the Jaguars in this matchup, but starting QB Blake Bortles (ankle) has been upgraded to probable. Titans QB Jake Locker suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last game, and QB Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) is doubtful, meaning Charlie Whitehurst will start under center. RB/WR Dexter McCluster (knee) has also been ruled out, and top WR Kendall Wright, who has missed two straight games with a hand injury, is considered questionable to return in time for Thursday.

The Titans gave up a 1-yard rushing touchdown to Chris Ivory with just over three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to lose to the Jets 16-11 last week. Shoulder injuries to QBs Zach Mettenberger (1,412 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 8 TD, 7 INT) and Jake Locker (993 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 5 TD, 7 INT) have left QB Charlie Whitehurst (967 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT) as the team’s lone healthy signal caller.

Whitehurst threw for 203 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions in relief duty against the Jets last week. The Jacksonville defense is allowing 243.0 passing yards per game (21st in NFL), so Whitehurst should be able to move the chains on Thursday night. If Whitehurst is playing Thursday then that could mean a big game for WR Nate Washington (38 rec, 629 yards, 2 TD). Washington had six catches for 102 yards on 10 targets against the Jets last week and is clearly somebody that Whitehurst has a comfort level with.

Tennessee will need to get some more production out of its running game, as its backfield rushed for just 72 yards against the Jets last week. Defensively, this team played pretty well against New York, allowing only 277 total yards and holding the Jets to 2-of-13 on third down conversions.

The Jaguars went into Baltimore and played the Ravens tough, but they ultimately left with yet another loss.

QB Blake Bortles (2,676 pass yards, 6.4 YPA, 10 TD, 17 INT) went 21-of-37 for 210 yards with zero touchdowns and a pick in the loss. Bortles has now thrown in an interception in 11 of the 12 games he’s played in this season. He will need to limit his mistakes going forward, but he could be in for a big game against a Tennessee defense that is allowing 35.0 PPG over the past four weeks.

With RB Denard Robinson (foot) out for the season, RB Toby Gerhart (265 rush yards, 1 TD) is taking his place, and actually ran the ball pretty effectively for Jacksonville last week. He carried the football 13 times for 54 yards, and also caught two passes for nine yards. Gerhart’s 4.2 yards per carry against Baltimore was his highest in a single game on the entire season. Jacksonville will use him to wear out the Titans’ defense with his bruising style of running.

Defensively, this team is a complete mess in all aspects of the game. The Jaguars are allowing 129.6 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) to go along with their 21st ranked passing defense (243 YPG allowed). Jacksonville has given up at least 20 points in seven straight weeks, and will need to hold teams to much fewer that 20, with how horribly they’ve played offensively. The Jaguars will try to capitalize on Tennessee's mistakes, as their opponent has nine multi-turnover games this year. However Jacksonville's offense has 2+ giveaways in eight different games in 2014.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys open as field goal faves versus Colts
By COLIN KELLY

They say there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes.

Well, here’s a third: Somebody is going to win the dreadful NFC South, and that someone will have a home playoff game, despite posting a sub-.500 record.

Week 16 “features” a contest that will go a long way toward determining which team will secure that berth, when the Atlanta Falcons (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) travel to the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU and ATS).

The Falcons “played” their way into contention by losing five in a row earlier in the season, winning two in a row after that, then losing three of their last four. On Sunday, Atlanta fell to Pittsburgh 27-20 as a 3-point home underdog.

Meanwhile, New Orleans still has some work to do this week, with the Monday night game at Chicago. The Saints enter that contest on a 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Both the Saints and Bears could end up losing the division title to equally dreadful Carolina (5-8-1 SU, 7-7 ATS).

John Lester, said he’ll wait to see how the Saints look tonight before setting the number, but expects Drew Brees and Co. to open as touchdown favorites.

“The division berth could be on the line for New Orleans, and possibly Atlanta oddly enough, so this is a big one,” Lester said, adding the status of Falcons wideout Julio Jones – who missed Sunday’s game with a hip injury -- looms large. “The Falcons are obviously a different team without Julio Jones. The Saints are on a short week, but the home team in this series seemingly wins every time. If nothing major happens Monday night and Jones is out, the Saints will be around touchdown favorites.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle is rounding into playoff form and still has a shot to catch surprising Arizona for the NFC West title. The Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) stifled San Francisco 17-7 on Sunday, pushing as a 10-point home favorite while posting their fourth consecutive SU win (3-0-1 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games.

Arizona (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS), tied for the best SU record in the league and No. 1 against the oddsmakers, is now down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley. But the Cards’ defense helped them fend off St. Louis 12-6 last Thursday.

“We’re going to hold off on releasing a line for this game until the Cardinals’ quarterback situation becomes clearer,” Lester said. “We assume it’s going to be Lindley, but stranger things have happened. There is a drop-off between Drew Stanton and Lindley. I think we’ll probably open Seattle between 6- and 7-point chalk.”

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Indy (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) clinched the AFC South with a 17-10 victory over Houston on Sunday, pushing as 7-point home chalk in its fourth consecutive SU win. But the Colts still have more to play for, with an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye.

Dallas (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) got out to a 21-0 lead at Philadelphia in the Sunday night game, gave all of it back and more in falling behind 24-21, then got back on track to claim a 38-27 victory as a 3.5-point pup. That gave the Cowboys the inside track to the NFC East title.

“This is as tough of a game to handicap as any on the board in Week 16, in my opinion,” Lester said. “Dallas got the big win against Philly, but it can’t afford to lose even once with the way the playoff picture is shaping up. The Colts are still playing for something, but they don’t need it nearly as much. We always get a ton of action on the Cowboys.”

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Defending AFC champ Denver hasn’t looked pretty lately, but has won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 22-10 victory laying 4 points at San Diego. The Broncos (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) are tied with New England for the AFC’s best mark, but hold the No. 2 playoff slot since they lost to the Patriots.

Cincinnati (9-4-1, 7-6-1) sits atop a crowded AFC North after getting a key win Sunday at Cleveland, rolling over hapless Johnny Manziel and the Browns 30-0 catching 2.5 points.

“As I mentioned last week, the Denver defense is starting to come around,” Lester said. “Peyton Manning doesn’t have to throw the ball 40 to 50 times when the defense is playing well. Both teams can move up in the standings, so there’s a lot left to play for. I expect the wiseguys will be on the home dog and the under.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Jump on the Bengals now
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Denver at Cincinnati (+3.5)

All decent teams deserve a long look when they get points playing at home, and the half-point here is pretty enticing. The public is hammering the Broncos 3-1 in early betting, but the sharps might be planning a late play on the Bengals. And why not? Cincinnati has won four of five and is right in the thick of a crazy race in the AFC North, and the Bengals need this one badly to set up a potential winner-take-all battle with Pittsburgh in Week 17. Denver has won four in a row of its own, but fissures are starting to show in an offense that has been south of 30 points in three straight games. Take the points now on this one. PS -- The long-term weather forecast calls for light snow and temps in the low 30s, and we know how much Peyton Manning likes bad weather.

Game to wait on

New York Giants at St. Louis (-5)

The Rams are 6-8 and out and their playoff chances were burned at the stake when QB Sam Bradford ‘s ACL was torn last August, but what the St. Louis defense has done since Thanksgiving is nothing short of remarkable – 12 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. The Giants have won a couple in a row against weak competition (Tennessee, Washington), but New York has also long since cashed in its chips on this season. New York has not beaten a decent defensive team all season, though. Figuring that New York money through the middle of the week might knock this number down a half-point or so, so if you like the Rams you might find -4.5 later on.

Total to watch

New England at New York Jets (47)

This is a playoff game for the Jets, who need at minimum a competitive game to have even a puncher’s chance of bringing fun-loving Rex Ryan back as coach, but even a win probably won’t get it done. The Jets have had success in the past clogging the middle against Brady’s receivers and bringing up-the-middle pressure, and the Patriots don’t do too much outside the numbers. Plus, NE likes its ground game now with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. Another factor in play is New England’s tendency to start slow on the road (Green Bay, San Diego), resulting in scoring in the low 20s. The Under is worth a look here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cutler benched in favor of Clausen, Bears big dogs
Justin Hartling

Marc Trestman and the Chicago Bears have decided to bench disappointing Jay Cutler in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. The Bears have dropped their past three games with Cutler throwing six interceptions.

"[Cutler] actually doesn't meant to much in the line by his past performances," Scott Kaminsky "The problem here is that Clausen may be the worst backup in the league so we have moved the game to Chicago +8.5 and dropped the total to 44.5."

Chicago is 5-9 against the spread this season and 1-2 ATS when dogs of a touchdown or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Whitehurst the last Titans QB to win
Justin Hartling

The last time the Tennessee Titans won a gone straight up, Charlie Whitehurst was at quarterback. The career backup was 1-3 straight up and 1-2-1 against the spread when starting for the Titans this season.

Whitehurst completed 60.1 percent of his passes while throwing for five touchdowns and two interceptions in those four starts.

Tennessee is currently 3-point road dogs against Jacksonville Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jaguars favored for first time in 46 weeks
Justin Hartling

The last time the Jacksonville Jaguars were a favorite heading into a game was Week 4 back in the 2012-13 season. That span of 45 weeks saw the Jags go 13-27-2 against the spread and 4-9-1 ATS this season.

Jacksonville is currently -3 against Tennessee Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

TENNESSEE (2 - 12) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 12) - 12/18/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 4-11-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee

 

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Titans at Jaguars

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 40.5)

Quarterback situations are iffy for Tennessee and Jacksonville as the AFC South doormats prepare to meet in Florida on Thursday in a game that could help determine who gets the No. 1 draft choice. The Titans, losers of eight straight, will stick with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst after he finished the team's 16-11 loss to the New York Jets on Sunday. Rookie Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) remains sidelined while Jake Locker is on injured reserve after hurting his shoulder in the Jets game.

The Jaguars are also preparing for a possible change at quarterback as rookie starter Blake Bortles is questionable with a sprained foot. Chad Henne, who started the first two games of the season, would get the nod if Bortles cannot go. Bortles threw for a career-high 336 yards while Whitehurst had 233 in Tennessee's 16-14 win in the first meeting Oct. 12. The Titans have not won since and enter Week 16 with the second-best chance to draft first overall, one spot ahead of Jacksonville.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Jags as 3-point home faves and that line has not moved. The total opened at 41 and has dropped 40.5.

INJURY REPORT: Titans - TE Delanie Walker (Probable, knee), T Kamerion Wimbley (Questionable, hamstring), WR Kendall Wright (Questionable, hand). Jaguars - QB Blake Bortles (Probable, foot), DE Andre Branch (Doubtful, groin), RB Denard Robinson (I-R, foot).

POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+8.75) - Jaguars (+8.25) + home field (-3.0) = Jags -3.5

WEATHER FORECAST: Temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-low-50s with wind blowing toward the south endzone at just two mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After 13 straight weeks in the basement, the Jaguars have emerged from the bottom of the power rankings. They are favored for the first time this week since Week Four in 2012." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-12 SU, 3-10-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Tennessee has gone two straight games without an offensive touchdown as one of the league's most meager attacks has bottomed out. One consistent issue has been an inability to sustain drives at all - the Titans have lost the time-of-possession battle for seven straight games and are 31st in the league in that category overall (27:03), ahead of only fast-paced Philadelphia. Tennessee is last in third-down percentage (29) although it was a bit better against New York, converting 6-of-16.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (2-12 SU, 4-9-1 O/U): Regardless of who starts under center, they will likely face pressure that has made life difficult for Bortles and Henne this season. Jacksonville has given up 19 sacks over the last three weeks and a league-high 62 overall, which is one shy of the franchise record set in 2001. Bortles, who was sacked eight times in a 20-12 loss at Baltimore last weekend, was in a walking boot Monday but told reporters he expects to play.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.
* Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Jaguars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC South.

CONSENSUS: Jags are seeing 70 percent of bets.

 

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'Playing for Pride'

Two of the four teams in the Marcus Mariota sweepstakes are featured in this weeks NFL opening matchup as Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) host equally inept Tennessee Titans (2-12, 3-10-1 ATS). Thursday Night Football has seen a few terrible teams participate but no debate this one takes the cake with Jaguars 32nd ranked offense (15.2), 29th ranked defense (26.9) up against Titans 29th ranked offense (16.5), 31st ranked defense (27.9). Ironically, the last game Tennessee won came at the expense of Jaguars in week-6 as Titans nipped their division rival 16-14 but failed to cash as 4-point home favorite. A tough one to predict. However, the lean is Jacksonville as Jaguars have one thing going for them, they're been favorite 5 times the past four seasons with backers taking four trips to the cash window (4-1 ATS). On the other side, betting trends do not look good for Tennessee as Titans are 1-6-1 ATS the past 8 meetings, 2-13-1 ATS versus division opponents.

 

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NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Green Bay at Tampa Bay December 21, 01:00 EST

Green Bay's five game win streak came to a screeching halt this past week as Buffalo Bills behind some shutdown defense handed Packers a 21-13 loss in front of a frenzied Ralph Wilson Stadium crowd. This week, Packers should have little trouble taking full advantage of an inconsistent Buccaneers squad. However, you do bet Pack at some risk. Double digit favorites haven't been the best choice this season as they're 9-8-1 against the betting line. Besides, for whatever reason Packers have struggled cashing tickets on the road when facing a team with a losing record posting a 3-8 ATS mark last 11 situations. Final betting nugget - Packers have failed to cash last three vs Tampa and are on a 3-9-1 ATS skid last thirteen meetings with Bucs.


Detroit at Chicago December 21, 01:00 EST

Lions, thanks to a nail-biting 16-14 win over Minnesota are currently 'Kings' in the North and look to remain atop the heap when the visit Chicago Bears a squad falling apart at the seams having lost six of the past eight. Lions who have already defeated Bears once this season make it a series sweep for the second year in a row. Always a challenge laying a TD or more in a division game and even more perilous laying the points on the road. However, there appears to be enough in Lions favor in this situation to counteract such concerns. Matthew Stafford, Johnson and Tate combination should shred this Bear defense that has allowed the most points in the NFL behind the second worst pass protection in the league. Consider Lions knowing Bears are ridding an 0-5 ATS skid as home underdogs, 1-7 ATS slide vs the division in December.

 

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NFL Football Trends

NFL Football Betting Trends for Thursday, Dec. 18

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 8:25 ET
Tennessee: 11-3 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Jacksonville: 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points


NFL Football Betting Trends for Saturday, Dec. 20

Philadelphia at Washington, 4:30 ET
Philadelphia: 15-5 UNDER in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points
Washington: 13-4 UNDER in home games against conference opponents

San Diego at San Francisco, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 58-37 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
San Francisco: 6-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread


NFL Football Betting Trends for Sunday, Dec. 21

Minnesota at Miami, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 8-2 UNDER as an underdog
Miami: 67-40 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Green Bay at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 106-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Tampa Bay: 3-12 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-5 ATS after a 2 game home stand
Chicago: 15-4 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 6-1 OVER off a home loss
New Orleans: 5-1 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game

New England at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New England: 12-2 ATS off a division game
NY Jets: 6-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 5-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Pittsburgh: 10-2 UNDER after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Cleveland at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 4-12 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
Carolina: 17-7 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Baltimore at Houston, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 40-23 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Houston: 2-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road

NY Giants at St Louis, 4:05 ET
NY Giants: 59-38 ATS off a home win
St Louis: 1-9 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

Buffalo at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Buffalo: 8-2 UNDER against conference opponents
Oakland: 7-0 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival

Indianapolis at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 11-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Dallas: 4-13 ATS as a home favorite

Seattle at Arizona, 8:30 ET
Seattle: 14-28 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
Arizona: 13-5 ATS as an underdog


NFL Football Betting Trends for Monday, Dec. 22

Denver at Cincinnati, 8:30 ET
Denver: 6-0 OVER against AFC North division opponents
Cincinnati: 22-10 OVER off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog

 

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