Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Thursday
A late three got Southern Utah inside the number or right on the closing line of 8 as the Thunderbirds gave UNLV a terrific battle. This was almost very bad beat material as the Rebels went on a huge end game run to stretch the lead from 1 to 11, but the T-Birds got a late three to get the final margin back to 8. Meanwhile, here’s a look at the AAC Championship game between Temple and Navy being played on Saturday.
325 TEMPLE at 326 NAVY 12:00 PM
Take: TEMPLE +3
There isn’t much question as to which side the betting public prefers on Saturday as Temple and Navy square off for the AAC title and a potential Cotton Bowl bid for the Midshipmen.
As of right this minute, Western Michigan is in the catbird seat for that Cotton Bowl invite. The bid goes to the highest ranked team outside the Big Five conferences, and WMU is currently ahead of Navy. Obviously, if Ohio pulls the upset on Friday, then Navy is in complete control of its destiny on Saturday. But even if the Broncos win as expected on Friday, the Midshipmen could still be alive. although I find it hard to believe Western Michigan would get snubbed considering they have a perfect record.
What isn’t being mentioned to almost any extent, at least not from what I’ve been reading, is that should WMU get stunned on Friday, it’s not just Navy that’s in the hunt for some New Year’s Cotton. In fact, should that shocker come to fruition, Temple suddenly gets itself in position for the trip to Dallas on January 2 with a win in this game.
As to the actual matchup, regardless of the ramifications, I like Temple’s chances. The Owls have really firmed up their rushing defense as the season has progressed. If Temple can contain the Navy option to a reasonable extent, the Owls become the favorite to win the football game. To me, it’s really that simple. Navy has had just three games all season where they threw more than nine times. They lost two of those three and barely got past Tulane in the other game.
Of course, the flip side to that assessment is that no one has been slowing down this Navy express of late. The Middies are putting up some crazy numbers on offense and if they solve Temple, there won’t be much doubt about this outcome. That said, the opinion here is that the dog has enough defensive ability to at least contain Navy’s option and that’s really all I’m asking for on Saturday.
The bottom line is that I have Temple as the marginal superior team. That’s somewhat offset by this game being at Navy, but I’m also getting points in the bargain with the Owls. I sense this could actually end up being the best game on the Saturday menu. The masses like Navy in this game, with a good sized ticket count edge favoring the Midshipmen. I’ve decided to fade the public this time and will take the points with Temple.