Thursday 11/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 19

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jags "over" 7-2 last nine since late LY though last three and four of last six "under" vs. Titans. Jags 7-1-1 vs. spread last nine in series. Titans "over" 3-1 on road TY.
Tech Edge: Jags and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

I have been trying to get a head start for Saturday’s big card at Delta Downs that includes the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), a points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1)

There are eight stakes on the card and I’ll cherry pick some of the stakes and include them in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.

The race preceding the Jackpot is the $400,000 Delta Princess (G3) for two-year-old fillies, which will provide us an early look at possible starters for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) next spring at Churchill Downs.

The one mile test drew a field of seven with the Steve Asmussen trained La Appassionata who is the 3-5 morning line favorite. The daughter of Bernardini is perfect in two career starts, the combined winning margin 11 ½ lengths.

She broke her maiden in her debut at Churchill Downs by 4 ½ lengths and followed that up by winning the local prep for the Princess, taking the My Trusty Cat as the 4-5 betting favorite by seven lengths. Her Beyer Speed Figures tower over the rest of the field.

However, these juvenile fillies can jump up quickly and there are several promising foes she will face. Angelita ships in from Retama where she raced three times, all on turf including a runner up finish in the La Senorita Stakes.

Above Fashion was seven lengths behind the chalk in the My Trusty Cat in her runner up finish, and the third place finisher Jet Black Magic will seek to turn the tables.

Completing the field are recent first level optional claiming winner Shesthewinner, maiden Learning Curve and Charlie’s Pal, who was fourth versus Alw-2L foes in her last outing.

Delta Downs usually runs at night but has a special 1:15 CT post time on Saturday. The post time for the Princess is 3:43 CT and the Jackpot, which is the seventh race on the card, has a post of 4:15 CT.

Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (12:20 ET)
#9 Updraft 8-1
#10 My Giant 4-1
#3 Brevard 2-1
#15 Lieutenant Dale 8-1

Analysis: Updraft gets the call and with rain in the forecast I am assuming we are off the grass today. The gelding chased the early pace and weakened to finish sixth last out going a mile on the turf at Belmont Park off the bench. The barn is 15% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. This guy is bred to like a wet track and should move forward second off the layoff.

My Giant tracked the early pace, got stuck in traffic in the stretch and checked in third at 43-1 in the same race our top pick exits. This guy should like a wet track, by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Thunders Dove ($287,715).

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 3,9,10,15
TRI: 9,10 / 3,9,10,15 / 3,7,9,10,15

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Alw $67,000N1X (3:50 ET)
#2 Alliteration 7-2
#4 Il Mulino 6-1
#1 Know It All Anna 3-1
#7 Baublette 5-1

Analysis: Alliteration is making her first start since February for the Chad Brown barn that is 28% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The $260,000 Ocala purchase broke her maiden in her second career start on the inner track going two turns after running second in her debut sprinting. She sports solid looking works and this barn knows how to have them ready to go off the bench. She ran well over a wet track and has a decent enough off track pedigree.

Il Mulino was a game maiden winner last out in her sixth career start and first off a two month break. The third place finisher High Ridge Road came back to graduate in her next outing on Nov. 12 here. The Mott trainee earned the top last out speed fig and has a solid off track pedigree, by Elusive Quality out of a Holy Bull mare.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 2,4 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #9 Updraft 8-1
R1: #15 Lieutenant Dale 8-1
R2: #4 Star of the Forest 12-1
R3: #8 Kathy’s Humor 8-1
R4: #4 kay’s Little Mug 12-1
R4: #1 Opener 8-1
R5: #2 Gato Azul 8-1
R7: #3 My Man Al 12-1
R7: #9 Summer Colony 10-1
R9: #9 Zoetic 20-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,4,7/5,6,7/4/1,7,8,10/1,7 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4:1,7,8,10/1,7/1,2,3/1,3,7,9 = $96

LATE PICK 4:1,3,7,9/1,4,5/2,3/2,3,4,6 = $96

MEET STATS: 85 - 293 / 433.70 BEST BETS: 14 - 26 / $46.80

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 26 / $85.00

Best Bet: MATZA MAN (3rd)

Spot Play: EVERGREEN ARTIST (10th)


Race 1

(1) BADSTORMANYPORT raced okay in the Matron Consolation now faces much easier. He should wake up in this spot. (4) ROLLING ROCK was an easy winner in this class last week and is the one to upend. (7) CENTURY CHURCHILL paced his own third 1/4 in 27 2/5 on a track rated three seconds slow in his debut. He could beat these if asked for his best.

Race 2

(6) PRINCESS ELSA debuts for Hudon and has a couple of miles on her card at Vernon that make her a contender in this wide-open maiden dash. (5) ARNIE has disappointed thus far but faces a weaker group here and should be respected. (7) PRINCE OF MINTO debuts for Team Ballargeon and is a full-brother to Summers Jewel who was a 7 1/2 length winner in her debut. Toss him on your Pick 5 tickets.

Race 3

(4) MATZA MAN was outstanding last week and looks to sweep this series here. On paper, he is simply the fastest of this group. (6) GONNA FLY roared home to finish a strong 2nd to the choice two back then broke last week. He looks like the only real threat to the choice but needs a trip. (5) PUKKA should share if he can stay flat throughout the mile.

Race 4

(10) NEEDLECREST is in top form and could take another if he can avoid a bad trip starting from out there. He could be a square price here due to the post; call to repeat. (7) CHARLOTTES COLONY couldn't reach the choice last week but was well clear of the rest. (8) JULERICA lost all hope at the start last week but could rebound here if he behaves.

Race 5

(1) PRINT MEDIA was a winner last week if he didn't lock wheels with the leader nearing the wire; call to upset here in the Autumn Series Final. (7) CONTINUAL HANOVER was a predictable winner at short odds and is the one to knock off here. (8) BIG BANG BOOM was lucky to hang on last week. His unbeaten record is in serious jeopardy here.

Race 6

(3) DEMAND AN ANSWER exploded for a huge win in this class last week and is a likely repeater at a short price here. (1) FLEET BUMBLEBEE ships in for a trainer that typically gets immediate positive results at this meet; beware. (2) PISCEAN qualified well over an off track and could share here in her first start back from a break.

Race 7

(1) ARIZONA SEELSTER has been lights out over London in two starts now goes for trainer Montini in her Woodbine debut; top call. (3) WARAWEE RAP wasn't far back last time when closing off excess cover. She is in with a good chance vs. this group. (7) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE exits the Autumn Series to face easier which should produce a better result.

Race 8

(5) MOONWARDS HANOVER cut some fast splits in an open claimer at Flamboro last time. He should take this group a long way on the front end. (4) MIDNIGHT PLAY should sit a good stalking trip and is another to consider in a wide-open race. (1) BLUE LINE has gone some long trips at London and would be dangerous here if he can avoid taking too much air.

Race 9

(2) WHISTYS PARADISE has flown home to easily win her last two and faces many of the same mares here. She can take another. (3) CYNDALIANNE DUC has been 2nd to the choice in both of those miles and looks like the only threat again. (4) JENNA CASIMIR looks likely for third again where she has landed in 25% of her starts so far this year.

Race 10

(6) EVERGREEN ARTIST ships in for a dangerous outfit and looks as good as any here in the finale. (4) LITTLE CLAYT has been competitive vs. some decent conditioned foes at the B tracks all year. He fits here. (2) STEVES LEGACY needed room lacked room late last week; he is dangerous here. (3) LANCASTER PARK has hit his best stride in his past two starts and could better this placing. (9) VEGILANTE HANOVER sprung a massive upset last week in a strangely-run race. A repeat is unlikely here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 4:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 93 - Purse:$18000 - NW $15,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS 4 YR. OLDS & OLDER LAST START FOR A PURSE OF GREATER THAN $25,000 INELIGIBLE AE: NW 7 EXT. PM RACES OR $70,000 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 RAS SHAKINTHTBACON 5/2


# 2 CLASSIC BELISIMA 9/2


# 7 WISENHEIMER 7/2


Feel pretty confident putting some green stuff down on RAS SHAKINTHTBACON. If effort in the last affair is any indicator, this contender will have a very respectable shot in here. High last race TrackMaster SR. We can't pass on this mare given one of the strongest driver/trainer percentages around. Napolitano is racking up the wins recently. Outstanding win percent makes this standardbred our choice. CLASSIC BELISIMA - This race could very well be controlled by this mare. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will confirm that. This race horse looks strong considering the high class stats. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. WISENHEIMER - Hard to put finger on it, but give the nod to him this time. Enters this contest with competitive TrackMaster class ratings in relationship to the field of starters - take a good look.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 6:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$8300 - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ALGORITHM 3/1


# 2 JULMYRA 6/1


# 6 AL-MAR SNEAKY PETE 9/2


Hey, listen up! ALGORITHM is the wise wager if you like to win. Cannot put a finger on it, but like this gelding for a bet. Feel the need for speed, this interesting entrant has been turning in some excellent speed figs averaging around 77. Good for a win wager just off the outstanding prior class numbers. Have to like this contender. JULMYRA - Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this brain trust. Pace markings here point to a clear-cut play. Within the recent past Crawford has been on fire, which may give the edge to this mare in this one. AL-MAR SNEAKY PETE - The handicapping group has Coppola on its list of drivers who are winning with a flourish in recent times. Last 30 days win percentage is outstanding. Take a look at this fine animal's avg speed rating of 81 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very good play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 LRH LITTLE JOHNNY 6/1


# 4 JLA FULL THROTTLE 8/1


# 5 LOUSIANA CHROME 5/1


I've got to go with LRH LITTLE JOHNNY. Macias has this gelding racing well and is a decent choice based on the very good speed figures posted in short races lately. A solid 77 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group. Players get an edge when playing this handler in a short race. JLA FULL THROTTLE - Has run admirably when running a short race. When this jockey and handler team up, bettors often make money. LOUSIANA CHROME - Hamilton has recent return on investment figures which make this one a very good wager. With a strong 72 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 PRIVATE THRILL 4/1


# 5 UNREPENTING 2/1


# 2 BOLDLEE 5/2


I have to support PRIVATE THRILL here. He has a solid distance/surface win record - 2 / 6. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 81 - of his last race. Has garnered strong Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. UNREPENTING - Rice has this gelding racing well and is a strong pick based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures put up in sprint races lately. Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been very good - 79 avg - of late. BOLDLEE - Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 GREAT LITE (ML=5/1)


GREAT LITE - Have to give this colt a good chance. Ran a sharp contest in the last race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PHILIP THE TANK (ML=3/1), #12 CORAGGIO (ML=4/1), #6 SMOKIN ACES (ML=9/2),

PHILIP THE TANK - Difficult to take this questionable contender at the odds after the finish (fourth) in the last affair. You should normally gamble against low-odds horses that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. I checked out this horse's past performances and he doesn't do well as the public's top choice and is likely to be favored today. CORAGGIO - This animal doesn't have a champion's state of mind. Quite often finishes close, but no cigar. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. SMOKIN ACES - Don't think this pony has what it takes to be victorious this time around.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 GREAT LITE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with 10

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 KING FORESTER (ML=8/1)
#4 CLICK (ML=12/1)


KING FORESTER - The jock/handler twosome of Moran and O'Callaghan has a strong ROI together. When the real running starts, this gelding should be flying down the lane. CLICK - Running over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this animal at the top of my list of contenders. Armata brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Getting a break of 10 lbs from last race at Woodbine. He should make the most of this advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 IMPERIAL DREAM (ML=2/1), #3 TEVEZ (ML=5/2), #5 MR. HONEY BADGER (ML=7/2),

IMPERIAL DREAM - This pony has been letting down the bettors as the favorite time and time again. TEVEZ - Speed ratings tell a narrative of declining form. MR. HONEY BADGER - Should be difficult for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 KING FORESTER to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 12:49 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $40,000.00 CLAIMING $55,000.00 PURSE

#1 ANGEL CODE / #1A JUBLIANT VISION
#5 NUFFSAID NUFFSAID
#4 STAR OF THE FOREST
#3 AMULAY

#1 ANGEL CODE is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this claiming field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has nice early speed abilities to compliment. She's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back, in a race which was contested at today's TrackMaster PLUS class level of 97. The stablemate, #1A JUBLIANT VISION, has also hit the board in four straight, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. #5 NUFFSAID NUFFSAID has hit the board in four of her last five outings overall, including a win in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (7th) Pagan, 3-1
(8th) I Know It All Anna, 3-1


Charles Town (1st) Wings So Safe, 6-1
(2nd) So Serene, 5-1


Churchill Downs (3rd) Leroi's Thrill, 4-1
(7th) Fashion City, 4-1


Del Mar (5th) Run the Show, 6-1
(8th) Some Caan Job, 7-2


Delta Downs (3rd) Oh Dear Lord, 7-2
(10th) Stormy Allyssa, 6-1


Fair Grounds (3rd) Butcher, 3-1
(8th) Gold Chrome, 7-2


Finger Lakes (4th) Saratoga Fields, 6-1
(9th) Fingerpainter, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Merle, 6-1
(7th) Cabbage, 8-1


Gulfstream Park West (5th) Strong Composition, 5-1
(8th) Real Steel, 6-1


Penn National (2nd) Thebarberofbrazil, 8-1
(8th) Smokin Aces, 9-2


Remington Park (3rd) Copper Flash, 7-2
(9th) Expectdistinction, 7-2


Woodbine (5th) Texas Missy, 10-1
(6th) Royal Peace, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Thursday's games..........

Indiana scored 95 ppg in winning first two games by 39-26 points over couple of OVC stiffs; Hoosiers made 46% of their 3's so far, have four starters back from LY's 20-14 team that lost in first round of NCAAs. Creighton is step up in competition; they scored 98 ppg in winning first two games over cupcakes. Big 14 home favorites are 7-6 vs spread. .

South Florida lost its first two games by 5-3 points to Troy/NJIT, not exactly a great way to start. George Washington had great home win over Virginia Monday- scoring 73 on Virginia is no easy feat. Bulls are turning ball over 25.3% of time while playing an average pace. A-14 favorites are 5-6 vs spread; AAC underdogs covered three of four tries.

St John's allowed only 55 ppg in winning first two games by 9-22 over couple of NEC stiffs; Red Storm lost an exhibition game to a D-II team, are short on talent because Mullin got late start in recruiting, Rutgers is a step up for them, but not a huge step; Scarlet Knights beat Howard by 12 in its first D-1 game, snapping a 12-game losing streak vs D-I teams.

UAB has all five starters back from team that won C-USA tourney and a game in NCAAs, but they split first two games this month, with games decided by total of three points. Blazers are turning ball over 21.2% of time, making 29% from arc. Troy won its first D-I game at USF 82-77; most of the Trojans' better players are younger guys.

Arizona scored 84.5 ppg in winning its first two games by 18-30 points; Wildcats are re-tolling a bit, may not be as strong as usual- their schedule is little softer than usual. Boise State got upset at Montana, then waxed NAU by 20; Broncos shot 69% inside the arc in those games. Pac-12 home favorites are 8-6 vs spread; Mountain West road dogs are 5-1.

Iowa beat a couple of stiffs by 17-35 points to open season; Hawkeyes have four starters back from 22-12 team that won a game in NCAAs LY. Marquette beat IUPUI in OT after losing at home to Belmont, so they're struggling even after bringing in five freshman to replenish a very thin roster. Big East home favorites are 7-5 vs spread; Big 14 dogs are 1-1.

San Francisco scored 79 ppg in winning first two games over UIC/Rice; Dons turned ball over 22.1% of time but have 39.7% eFG% on defense, #37 in country. USF has experienced guards- their big guys are youthful. Fresno State won by 3-8 points over Pepperdine/Lamar in its first two games; they're starting three juniors, two seniors and should be better.

UCLA split its first two games, losing to Monmouth, beating Cal Poly by 5, not a great start; Bruins are turning ball over 21.1% of time, foes only 13.1% (#307). UCLA played only six guys more than 10:00 in the Cal Poly game. Pepperdne was 22-34 on line in 69-66 loss at Fresno in its opener; Waves start three juniors, two seniors, have expectations.

SMU lost to Pac-12's UCLA in NCAAs LY; Mustangs have a terrible non-league schedule, this and Michigan being toughest games- they won by 35 over a stiff in their opener. Stanford needed OT to win opener vs Green Bay, which got whacked by East Tennessee Tuesday; they're 2-0, but this is the kind of game they need to win to make NCAAs.

Temple lost its opener by 24 to North Carolina on a neutral floor; Owls lost three starters from 26-11 team that lost in NIT semis- they're picked to finish in middle of AAC pack. Minnesota allowed 57 ppg in winning first two games by 8-11 points- Temple is a step up from those teams. Gophers forced turnovers 24.1% of time in those games (#34).

Mississippi State split its first two games, losing to Southern; they play fast (#54 tempo) but don't defend well man/man. Miai scored 89.5 ppg in winning first two games by 27-16; they've made 40.7% on arc, 55.6% on 2-pointers so far. Hurricanes have four starters back from LY's 25-13 team. ACC favorites are 8-7 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 2-1.

Long Beach State nipped BYU 66-65 in a latenight game Monday; 49ers shot only 31% in game but odd start time comtributed. Seton Hall won first two games over stiffs by 17-10 points; Pirates turned ball over 29% of time, a red flag but also shot 58% inside arc. Big East favorites are 7-5 vs spread; Big West underdogs are 4-4.

Illinois State survived 13-23 foul shooting in 67-66 win vs Morehead St after losing opener to San Diego State by 11; Redbirds are shooting 37% inside arc, 46% outside arc- they're forcing turnovers 25.3% of the time. South Dakota State never trailed in 85-68 win over Weber State in first D-I game; Jackrabbits lost by 11 to Northern Iowa of MVC LY. .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 11 around the corner........

-- Carolina is 14-7-2 as a home favorite.

-- Green Bay hasn't covered any of its last four games.

-- Chargers covered only three of last ten post-bye games.

-- Tennessee is 7-16-2 in its last 25 games as an underdog. .

-- Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games.

-- Buffalo covered 12 of its last 17 divisional games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play

369 BAYLOR at 370 OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday 7:30 PM

Take: BAYLOR PK

The stakes are as high as they get this weekend at Stillwater as Oklahoma State hosts Baylor. The Cowboys are looking to maintain their perfect record as well while also enhancing their chances of being a very big surprise entry in this year’s college football Final Four.

There are two schools of analysis butting heads here. The stats indicate one thing, while the situation would seem to point the other way.

Baylor owns the edge on paper. The Bears have better numbers on both offense and defense, at least in terms of the digits I have a tendency to weigh most heavily. That’s not to suggest Oklahoma State is a fraud as some are saying. I think this is a very solid Cowboys entry, although I’ll agree with the skeptics they’re not quite as good as their current standing in the polls.

The other side of the debate is that Oklahoma State has more to play for than a Baylor team that likely saw any playoff hopes vanish last week when the Bears lost at home to powerful Oklahoma. I’m not putting much stock into the Cowboys barely getting past Iowa State. Oklahoma State was in a sandwich spot to be sure coming off the TCU win with two monster games on deck.

There’s also some history to consider here, as Baylor has had a very tough time of it at in this series. Oklahoma State has won 15 of the last 18 meetings, and the Cowboys own a nifty 13-3-2 ATS slate in those games. So it’s tough to argue against those who are going to make their case for Oklahoma State here.

But I’m one who has a tendency to adhere more to the numbers than the scenario when all the digits indicate the same side. That’s the case for me here. I run several sets of stats when breaking down a game, and in this instance, it’s a unanimous decision. Baylor comes out on top right across the line. It’s not by any means a blowout, but the bottom lines are all Baylor for me.

One intangible that might also point to Baylor is what I like to call the pressure meter. The Bears could be in a down spot mentally, but they’re at least saying all the right things. As for the Cowboys, there’s no doubt about it. They’re the team that now has the proverbial pot of gold staring them in the face. But that can also create a very tight collar situation and I’ll be interested to see how the team responds with all the college football eyes watching.

My choice is to trust the data and also the oddsmakers. Oklahoma State will be getting the bulk of the public dollars here, particularly with the game priced as it is. In games of this magnitude, I’ve never got a problem going the other way if my numbers agree and that’s the case this time. I’m on the Baylor side to ruin the Oklahoma State dream on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Thursday, Nov 19, 2015 10:35 PM EST

(705) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (706) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, November 19, 2015, comes in the NBA as Golden State heads to Los Angeles to face the Clippers at the Staples Center. The Clippers will be sky high for this one, but they can't defend the Warriors perimeter shooting -- as no on can! Golden State escaped with a win over the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday, extending its franchise record to 12 straight wins to begin the season. The Clippers are on a 16-5 run over the total and the over is 16-5 in Clippers last 21 games following an ATS win. LA is also on a 9-3 run over the total at home. Los Angeles dropped four of five beginning with that setback but managed to turn things around with a 101-96 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. The over is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and the over is 10-3 when the Clippers face a team with a winning percentage above .600. And when these teams meet the over is 8-3. Play Golden State/LA Clippers Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Rangers vs Lightning

8* NHL Free Pick New York Rangers

The New York Rangers should simply put not be an underdog to any team right now, particularly not the Tampa Bay Lightning in their current state. The Lightning have just one win over their last five games and goal-scoring has been the prime concern. It doesn't get any tougher to score than on the Rangers King Henrik Lundqvist who has a 1.69 GAA and .947 SV% for the season and was rested when the team beat Toronto 4-3 Sunday. The Rangers are winners of nine straight games and it's hard to find a weakness in this team. They've outscored opponents 32-13 during their run and impressed on both sides of the special teams as well. The road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and this is a great price on the red hot Rangers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ricky Tran

Bucks vs Cavs

5* Free Pick Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee has just one win over its last four games, but that was a 108-105 OT win against the same Cavaliers team it'll visit tonight. Cleveland has also managed to lose to Detroit since that game, and this spread looks way to inflated to me. The Cavs are a perfect 5-0 home at Quicken Loans Arena this season, but a remarkable 1-4 ATS over those games. They've covered the spread in only one of the last six meetings with Milwaukee who forced 20 turnovers in the last meeting, seven from Lebron James.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Santa Clara at Cal Riverside 10:00PM

Bonus Play Cal Riverside

Reason: I'm recommending a play on UC-Riverside on Thursday night. Santa Clara is off to a 0-3 SU/ATS start to the season, despite playing at home in all three games. Tonight, they head out on the California road to take on UCR. But the Broncos will likely fair no better in this one, due in part to their propensity for turnovers. SCU has committed 48 turnovers, while dishing out just 35 assists through their first three games of the season. Meanwhile, UCR has only played one game, a blowout win over out-manned William Jessup, but the Highlanders bring back four starters from last year's squad and are a legit contender for an upper half finish in the Big West. Tonight, the experienced home team will face a West Coast Conf opponent, making just 34.6% of their FGA, including 26.8% of their 3-pointers, while scoring less than 54 ppg. And while SCU has covered just seven of their last 26 games against Big West opponents, UCR enters on a 6-0 ATS run at home. I'm recommending a play on UC-Riverside on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.