Thursday 1/7/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST

8½ FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $67,000.00 PURSE

#6 HIGH RIDGE ROAD
#1 RACHEL'S TEMPER
#8 WICKEDLY SMART
#4 THERESAS CANDYROSE

#6 HIGH RIDGE ROAD is the pace profile leader in this allowance field racing at, or about, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her four career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with and impressive, 60% of nearly 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #1 RACHEL'S TEMPER, a 10-1 BOMB, has produced "POWER RUN" PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in four of those outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 4th and 5th races back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 5/2,4/1,4,8/2,4/1,4,5,7 = $9.60

EARLY PICK 4: 2,4/1,4,5,7/2,6/3,5,8 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,8/3/2,4,7/1,4 = $18

MEET STATS: 180 - 543 / $978.30 BEST BETS: 28 - 49 / $98.20

SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 49 / $167.60

Best Bet: AMAZING CONTROL (1st)

Spot Play: DOUBLE OLIVES (8th)


Race 1

(5) AMAZING CONTROL faces much easier here than she did in the Niagara series and likely kicks off the Pick 5 as a big chalk. (2) BOOZER BRUISER could trip out behind the choice and complete the exacta. (1) HAMMER DOWN has more ability than her last three charted lines suggest and should wake up with a better performance here.

Race 2

(2) BAD AS LEADER was asked for little and produced the same last time from the 10-hole. She will be asked for a lot more early here from a better slot and should be right there. (4) NAUGHTY LADY B has shown great improvement in her last two and is the one to fear most. (6) MATTJESTIC TEMPO returns from a break for a trainer that sends those types to the gate ready quite often.

Race 3

(1) KILMER ROAD was nailed by one that repeated and looks much the best here, but has now been off almost a month. Top call and using in the Pick 5 but beware a short price in the win pool. (8) WANAKA closed rapidly in the final quarter last time and looks like the only other real contender. (4) MIAMI MAGIC brought $45,000 at the Harrisburg sale and likely has a lot more speed to offer than what you can see in her qualifying lines.

Race 4

(4) IWILLNOTBEMACHED moved first-over but couldn't sustain his bid Saturday night and now faces claimers here; should be prominent from the outset. (2) R U MACHIN ME also figures highly vs. claimers; check his line three back. (3) ANTAR PHIL should get a share as the morning line chalk.

Race 5

(7) MONEY MAGIC raced well first off the shelf and was only nailed late by one that swept the field. That was her best start to date and she rates highly here. (5) ZEALOUS SEELSTER was first-up in the same race and the 28 1/5 third quarter took its toll on her late. A better trip could bring an upset. (1) SANDY DE VIE was a nice debut winner in Ottawa but will need to drop several seconds here to challenge the top two.

Race 6

(6) VICS ROYAL LADY got hung the route from a worse post last time. She should trip better from the middle of the gate; slight nod. (2) AMITYVILLE LINDY was too far back after a slow half last time but still made some late headway. He should get a more aggressive drive here. (9) TYMAL WIZARD is an infrequent winner but raced well from the 10-hole last time and fits here.

Race 7

(8) AMBROSIA SEELSTER gives every indication that she is a nice filly and looks best here but will need an alert start from the outside post. (5) WHITEGLANCE motored by them all late last time and her improved late speed makes her a threat. (3) WEEKLY SPECIAL was a winner two back but broke with a big lead. After getting a clean line and now moving inside she is dangerous again.

Race 8

(3) DOUBLE OLIVES has beaten better and should be on the move earlier here racing against much weaker. (6) SHEZ A GOLD MINE stopped abruptly last time but her two previous starts would make her a contender. (2) BLACK WIDOW BABY is a great one for the bottom of vertical wagers but hard to like on the win end considering her record.

Race 9

(4) TWIN B INSPIRING looks like he can get an easy lead early here which may be all it takes for him to convert; top call. (7) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE should also be leaving and could upset if he can land in the choice's pocket and ride his cover to the lane; using. (2) STEVES LEGACY comes off a sharp win and should be used in the late pick 4.

Race 10

(4) REGAL FAME was a gritty winner two back then did nothing from the 8-hole out of town. Expect him to revert to the form of his penultimate start. (1) MAN OF MANY ARTS got stung in the third quarter vs. the choice but still finished third. He's in with a shot here. (8) ARNOLD DICK was 2nd to the choice but hung late; minor share predicted. (2) ALEXAS PRAYER is likely for the bottom of the Super or High-5. (7) ROCK THE DREAM drops back to a spot where he can grab a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 1/7 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

FINAL 2015 STATS: 246 - 1167 / $1,690.80 BEST BETS: 29 - 97 / $127.80

Best Bet: STORMUNN (12th)

Spot Play: HALTON HURRICANE (7th)


Race 1

(7) SENTIMENTAL LADY flashed good speed in her latest, but tired in the stretch drive last out. On November 20th, this gal took down the 1-9 choice Hustleonhome with a 3-hole trip; threat at her best tonight. (1) ISLAND VIEW makes her second try at this level and the rail slot should put her in the mix. (4) HUSTLEONHOME has not been the same since her last victory on October 29th, but must be considered in the exotics.

Race 2

(2) SIMPLE SAVER N was on the engine but was nailed at the wire for win honors at Freehold in her last trip. Blank in 8 starts last year, but this seems to be a perfect spot for this mare to make a quick turnaround. (1) CRUISINWITHMYBABY showed signs of life in her latest at the Meadowlands last time around; big threat. (3) BORN TO DREAM put in two nice efforts in a row at the Big M; dangerous.

Race 3

(4) DEREK DELIGHT scored her second straight victory on December 11. Clearly she is the speed of the speed, so the hat trick is surely not out of the question. (7) BAD GIRL VEGAS was second best against the top pick last time out; sharp enough to be a major factor in here. (5) BABY REMIND ME posted an even trip last out. Five-year-old mare could move forward.

Race 4

(7) HOOSIER CHATTER showed some early zip in her previous outing. If Holland chooses to change tactics with this gal, she could mow them down; needs a favorable trip. (2) CHAMPAGNE SHOWER put in a nice run last time out but could not get to the winner Derek Delight recently; big threat tonight. (1) CHECK MY PULSE comes by way of Saratoga. Was facing slightly tougher last time around, so the rail slot could be what she needs to factor with these.

Race 5

(6) THEREISAPACEFORUS rallied strongly recently to miss the victory by only a length and a quarter. Gelding appears to be heading in the right direction. Despite the rise in class, this guy can make tonight a winning one. (4) A PLUS HANOVER comes off two dull efforts upstate and now this gelding makes his return to the Hilltop where he got the job done on October 6th; must be considered. (5) DISARREI was over his head against tougher, so the drop in class should help his cause; we shall see.

Race 6

(5) JUST PLAIN LUCK is a very consistent gelding that took the pocket route home for glory last time around. He has a fondness for Yonkers since the move from Canada; poised to get it done. (2) CAMTURO ROCK was very good in his last three and got the job done here on November 20th; main danger. (1) DOUBLE YOUR BET was dull in his latest, but the rail should put him right square in the mix; watch out.

Race 7

(5) HALTON HURRICANE chasing better at the Meadowlands last time out but tired in the stretch drive. Now he moves his trade to the half-mile oval. His tactical speed could put him right in the scope of a victory tonight; threat at his best. (1) OK GALAHAD was third best at the Big M two trips ago. Last time he was on the fence, this gelding was a strong second on December 4th; dangerous. (6) HALL OF TERROR fits with this group, showed speed in his Jersey finale; can't be overlooked in this event.

Race 8

(7) THE FILLY PRINCESS takes a slight drop in class. Gets a tough post, but this gal is very capable if given a favorable trip. (3) SHES HEAVENLY Jersey invader has flashed speed in her last three trips to the post; could have a say in the outcome. (2) JENNAS PATRIOT ships in from Saratoga with a cozy slot to work with; not out of this.

Race 9

(2) PLAYAWAY N gets class relief for leading trainer and driver combo. On November 13, this gal was very game for the show spot. A move forward is not out of the question. (1) DELICIOUSLYNAUGHTY rallied strongly to nail down the victory last time out at Saratoga. Should fit well with these gals; main danger. (5) LITTLE MISS HENRY has sharp speed and took the pocket route home for glory three trips ago; not out of this.

Race 10

(4) COACH CAL makes his second try at this level. With a change in tactics, this guy could roll by these for all the marbles. (1) UNCLE GOODFELLOW moves back inside and that should help his cause; maybe. (3) HARDTS OR BETTOR was strong from the pocket but could not get to the winner in his latest; beware tonight.

Race 11

(1) CANACO STAR went to a stop from the rail last time out. Napolitano might try to get this mare to relax for the final stretch run; capable. (3) EXHILARATED closed sharply to grab the victory recently at the Meadowlands; consider in all the exotic slots. (7) LITTLE SANTAMONICA was facing better in her last try and rallied down the lane to nail down the place spot; big threat.

Race 12

(4) STORMUNN was sharp in victory last time out. This seems to be another perfect spot for this gal to repeat; the one to deny. (8) KAITLYN RAE is on a roll scoring her second straight score. Post hurts, but she is sharp enough to make some noise again. (3) LYONS SHADOW gets post relief and the last time she was here, pacing miss got the job done three starts back; consider.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Ice Couture, 5-1
(9th) Lil Renegade, 4-1


Charles Town (5th) Java for Two, 4-1
(8th) True Lime, 3-1


Delta Downs (2nd) Star Shopper, 9-2
(8th) Moonchaser, 4-1


Fair Grounds (1st) Blake Beauties, 7-2
(5th) Cad, 9-2


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Grumpy Small Mouth, 6-1
(6th) Rosarita, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) My Little Darlings, 3-1
(10th) Honey Chile Ryder, 6-1


Penn National (3rd) Danny Darlinz, 9-2
(6th) My Favorite City, 3-1


Santa Anita (6th) Bayonet, 3-1
(8th) Midnight Lady, 4-1


Turfway Park (1st) Devadutt, 8-1
(8th) Dnieper, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour Picks: Hyundai Tournament of Champions Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

This coming golf season has the potential to be one of the most exciting in years. It's clearly the start of a new era on Tour. The Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson dynamic that dominated the PGA Tour is all but over. Tiger is still recovering from back surgery; there's a very good chance he doesn't play at all in 2016 and it seems a long shot that Woods ever wins another event, much less a major.

Mickelson frankly doesn't need golf as he's a big-time family guy and very well paid off the course. Lefty had just three Top-10 finishes all of last season. His last victory was the 2013 British Open. That's probably his final major title, although Phil will again point his whole season toward the U.S. Open and completing the career Grand Slam.

But we don't need Tiger or Phil this year, and they never were really rivals because Woods was so much better in his prime. We have Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy battling one another all year for the title of world's best golfer. Which twenty-something player is the best right now? You have to say Spieth, who was the 2015 PGA Tour Player of the Year and FedEx Cup winner while taking two majors. McIlroy didn't win a major but took the European Tour's Race to Dubai yet again. Day finally got the major monkey off his back at the PGA Championship, and he was the best player alive for about two months or so at the end of last season.

A sportsbook offers a few futures props on that trio. McIlroy and Spieth are even money to win any major in 2016. Day is +200. You can bet on Spieth vs. McIlroy in major wins, with each at -115. And you can bet on the total major wins of each player, zero through four. Zero is the favorite for all of them: -130 for Spieth and McIlroy and -275 for Day.

The PGA Tour starts the New Year as usual with the winners-only Hyundai Tournament of Champions at the Plantation course in Kapalua on Maui. If you didn't win a Tour event last year (not season; 2015-16 fall winners are eligible), you aren't invited. Spieth and Day are playing. McIlroy won't come over to the USA for a few more weeks. A total of 32 winners from the 2015 calendar year are in the field. There is no cut. One guy shockingly making his first trip to this event is Padraig Harrington. He never bothered to come after his major wins in 2007 & '08. Harrington won last season's Honda Classic in Florida.

The defending champion of this event is Patrick Reed. He was four shots behind with four holes to play but closed with two birdies and an 80-yard eagle to force a playoff in which he beat Jimmy Walker, who missed two very makeable birdie chances down the stretch with a chance to win. This tournament used to be staged Friday-Monday. Now it's a traditional weekend event. The College Football Playoff national title game on Monday may have something to do with that.

One major rule change on Tour to also be aware of from here on out is the anchored putting ban. Most golfers who used to putt that way, led by Adam Scott, already had transitioned out of that style. Guys can still use a long putter, they just can't press it into their midsection. Arm-lock putting, used by the likes of Matt Kuchar, is still legal. If you have never used an anchored style, it purportedly helps with the yips. If someone is caught doing it, it's a two-stroke penalty. If a player accidentally brushes the grip against a loose shirt or something, it's not a penalty. Why is Kuchar's style legal? Because that still allows the hands and arms to swing without restriction.

Golf Odds: Hyundai Tournament of Champions Favorites

Spieth is the +450 favorite. He has played here once and was second in 2014. Spieth was last seen finishing fourth in Tiger's silly-season event in the Bahamas. Spieth admitted he was bit burned out back then, so he put down the clubs for a few weeks.

Day is at +550. He was third here last year, including a course-record 62, and ninth in 2011, his only other trip. Day took some time off following the birth of a second child and thus hasn't played since the Presidents Cup.

The favorites are rounded out by Dustin Johnson (+750), Bubba Watson (+1000) and Reed (+1000). Johnson won here in 2013 but didn't play last year. Watson has a best finish of fourth in 2013. He won Tiger's Bahamas event recently. Reed looks to become the first repeat winner since Geoff Ogilvy in 2010.

PGA Tour Picks: Hyundai Tournament of Champions Expert Predictions

Maybe I'm being stupid, but I'm not sure how dialed in Spieth or Day will be yet. I don't like them for Top 10s at the ridiculous prices of -550 and -450, respectively. I do like Johnson (-285), Rickie Fowler (-210) and Brooks Koepka (+110), a first-timer here.

Head-to-head, go with Day (-120) over Spieth (-110), Koepka (-120) over J.B. Holmes (-110), Fowler (-115) over Reed (-115), Johnson (-125) over Watson (-105), and Walker (-120) over Russell Knox (-110).

For top European go with Graeme McDowell at +150. Top American Johnson at +500. And D.J. is my winner. This is a wide-open track so he will be able to bomb it. In five prior appearances in Maui, Johnson hasn't finished worse than T16 with three straight top-10 finishes, including that victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

College basketball referees work a lot from November-March; here is what referee John Higgins has been doing for the last 7-10 days.........

Dec 29-- Texas Southern @ Baylor

Dec 30-- Nevada @ New Mexico

Dec 31-- BYU @ St Mary's

Jan 1-- Utah @ Stanford

Jan 2-- Michigan State @ Minnesota

Jan 3-- Arizona @ Arizona State-- Higgins tossed Bobby Hurley at end.

Jan 4-- Oklahoma @ Kansas-- Game went triple overtime.

Jan 5-- Kansas State @ Texas

Jan 6-- Evansville @ Wichita State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

737 Wisc Milwaukee @ 738 Youngstown State 7:45 PM

Take: Wisc Milwaukee -5.5

Let’s talk letdowns here. First off, it’s a good idea not to knee-jerk to these obvious situations. Fact is, the oddsmakers know all about them as well, and as is the case with this game, they have adjusted for the expected action by inflating the number by a couple of points.

But that said, this really does look like tough spot for Youngstown State and the Penguins simply might not be good enough to overcome the scenario.

Youngstown State pulled off a huge upset on Monday night. The Penguins went into Oakland and stunned the heavily favored hosts, 100-98. The winning field goal was just before the horn, and was so close it was originally ruled no basket by the stripes. Replay indicated otherwise, and Youngstown State was able to walk off the court with one of the best wins that program has enjoyed in ages.

What made this shocker even more startling was that the Penguins got it done without one of their better players. Senior big man Bobby Hain missed the game with an injury, but thanks to some extraordinary outside shooting from beyond the arc, Youngstown State never faded away, and in fact it was the Penguins who dominated the final few minutes en route to the shocker.

Hain is still among the missing, so Youngstown State will again be without one of its key components. As this is not a good team to begin with, I would have to say the bounce factor is more of a likelihood, especially considering how the shots were falling for the Penguins on Monday night.

Milwaukee has to make sure they don’t take this one for granted. That might be what got Oakland in trouble to begin with in the upset. The Panthers have recently lost two home games they should have won, dropping overtime decisions to South Dakota and Wright State, which were sandwiched around a terrific road win at Minnesota.

I like the fact this is a road game for Milwaukee, as I can see them being less vulnerable to complacency playing away from home. There’s no question the Panthers are the stronger team. They own a solid 10-5 record, with three of those losses in overtime, and they also own a win at Wisconsin.

As long as Rob Jeter’s troops take this game seriously, they should get the win and obvious spot or not, Youngstown State is positioned to take a plunge tonight. It’s tough enough for good teams to stay sharp off an upset win. For a team that isn’t used to pulling off wins of this magnitude, at least by their standards, it’s probably even more difficult. No bargain here courtesy of the sharp guys who make the lines, but I’ll still bite and will play Milwaukee tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016 8:05 PM EST

(703) BOSTON CELTICS VS (704) CHICAGO BULLS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, January 7, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Boston Celtics and the Bulls in Chicago. Boston is a young team that has the reputation of running and gunning, but the are also a very strong defensive squad, 5th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 8th in the league in points allowed. Boston is on a 5-1 run under the total, and the under is 15-7 when the Celtics last 22 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Chicago is even better, tops in the NBA in field goal shooting defense, 12th in the league in points allowed. The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play Boston/Chicago Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Hawks vs 76ers

5* NBA Free Pick Over

The Philadelphia 76ers opened a six-game homestand with a 109-99 win against Minnesota Monday as Ish Smith scored 21 points in 9-of-16 shooting. He's averaged 18.0 points and 8.3 assists in his first three games with the 76ers giving them a massive boost on offense. The over is 4-0 in 76ers last four at home, and I expect to see a high-scoring affair when they host the Atlanta Hawks Thursday night. The over is 9-1 in the Hawks last 10 overall and 7-0 in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They're off a pair of high-scoring defeats to the Knicks, and they've looked anything but solid on defense of late surrendering an average of 111 points in their last three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Fairfield vs Siena

Bonus Play Fairfield

I'm recommending a play on Fairfield plus the points on Thursday. We played and won with the Stags on Monday when they whipped Dartmouth 97-85. As we said a few days ago, Fairfield has played a tough slate, yet still manages to knock down 80 points per game. They're solid from the field, making over 46% of their FGA, including 37% from behind the arc. The Stags have five players averaging between 19.5 ppg & 8.1 ppg and they have already played Northwestern and North Carolina on the road, so no problem getting their minds set for Siena. The Saints will play uptempo, which helps us here, and they have too many players making too many mistakes when handling the basketball. Five of their available top six players are upside down in assist-to-turnover margin, combining for 118 assists and 165 turnovers. Even their top "disher," Marquis Wright, had a low ratio with 41 turnovers and 55 assists, and Wright is out for at least six weeks after suffering a foot injury three games ago. Playing short-handed, at Fairfield's pace, and with a propensity to commit turnovers, we'll recommend a play on the Stags plus the points on Thursday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.