Thursday 1/22/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Maryland at Indiana**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had this Big Ten showdown listed as a pick 'em.

-- When Indiana (14-4 straight up, 9-8 against the spread) lost at home to Eastern Washington on Nov. 24, there was plenty of chatter about the job security for Tom Crean. But the former Marquette coach hasn't lost at home since then and IU is out to a 4-1 start in Big Ten play.

-- Indiana has won 11 of 12 home games at Assembly Hall, posting a 6-5 spread record. The Hoosiers have won three in a row, including Saturday's 80-74 win at Illinois as a 5.5-point road underdog. Troy Williams was the catalyst with 21 points and nine rebounds, while James Blackmon Jr. added 21 points and seven boards. Yogi Ferrell was an abysmal 1-for-9 from the field, but he dished out nine assists compared to only one turnover.

-- Indiana is No. 41 in the RPI Rankings, compiling a 2-3 record vs. the Top 50 and a 6-4 mark against the Top 100. The Hoosiers' best scalps include triumphs over SMU, Butler, Pitt, Ohio St., Illinois and Penn St. Their defeats have come vs. Eastern Washington, at Michigan St. and neutral-floor setbacks against Georgetown and Louisville.

-- Maryland (17-2 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) is one of the nation's biggest surprises and Mark Turgeon is in the mix for National Coach of the Year honors. Turgeon's team has won three in a row, including Saturday's win over Michigan St. to complete a season sweep of the Spartans. The Terrapins trounced Tom Izzo's team 75-59 as 2.5-point home 'chalk.' Melo Trimble scored a game-high 24 points, while Jake Layman added 23 points and 12 rebounds.

-- Maryland is 13th in the RPI, going 4-1 against the Top 50 and 6-2 versus the Top 100. The Terrapins own quality road wins over Michigan St. and Oklahoma St. in addition to a neutral-court win over Iowa St. They lost at home to unbeaten Virginia and at Illinois.

-- The 'over' has been a money-making machine for the Hoosiers, cashing at a 12-4 overall clip. IU has seen the 'over' go 8-2 in its home games.

-- The 'under' is 7-5-1 overall for Maryland, 3-0-1 in its four true road assignments. With that said, the 'over' has hit in back-to-back outings.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

**Saint Mary's at Gonzaga**

-- As of early this morning, the Westgate SuperBook had Gonzaga (18-1 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) listed as a 14.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs will be seeking a 12th consecutive win since taking their only loss, a 66-63 defeat at Arizona in overtime on Dec. 6. However, we should note that they have failed to cover the number in three straight games.

-- Gonzaga got all it could handle last Thursday at Pepperdine, slipping past the Waves in a 78-76 victory as a 12-point road 'chalk.' The Bulldogs nearly blew the game by making only 14-of-33 free throws. On Saturday, they topped Loyola-Marymount 72-55 but came up short of covering the 19.5-point number. The 'Zags were better from the charity stripe, converting 12-of-16 attempts. Gary Bell Jr. scored a team-best 17 points, while Kevin Pangos contributed 16 points, six assists and a pair of steals.

-- Gonzaga is undefeated in eight home games with a 4-1 spread record.

-- Mark Few's team has been a double-digit favorite 11 times, struggling to a 4-6-1 spread record.

-- Saint Mary's (15-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) captured an 82-77 win over BYU as a two-point home favorite on Saturday. The Gaels were led by Brad Wadlow's 24 points, 14 rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocked shots. Garrett Jackson added 20 points and nine boards.

-- Since losing 53-47 at St. John's on Dec. 19, Saint Mary's has won nine consecutive games. It has covered the number in its last seven lined outings. The Gaels have been underdogs twice, going 2-0 ATS with an outright win at Creighton in overtime. They were 6.5-point 'dogs against the Red Storm.

-- Waldow averages team-highs in scoring (20.6 points per game), rebounding (10.1 RPG), field-goal percentage (58.2%) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG).

-- Since losing to Saint Mary's in the 2012 WCC Tournament finals, Gonzaga has beaten its chief conference rival six times in a row. The Bulldogs have won by at least 14 points and taken the cash in each of the last five encounters. This rivalry has seen five straight 'under' appearances.

-- The 'over' is 9-5 overall for Gonzaga, 3-1 in its home games with a total.

-- The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Saint Mary's, 4-1 in its home games.

-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- North Carolina St. won 72-63 Saturday at Florida St. despite the absence of Anthony Barber, who is 'questionable' for tonight's game at Miami. Barber, who has been away from the team dealing with a personal matter, is averaging 11.0 points, 3.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game. The Hurricanes were favored by four over the Wolfpack early this morning.

-- Virginia will put its unbeaten record on the line tonight vs. Ga. Tech as a 17.5-point home favorite. The Cavaliers are 7-4 ATS as double-digit 'chalk.' Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in seven games as underdogs. Despite being winless in five ACC games, they are 4-1 ATS in league play.

-- The 'over' has hit in all five of Ga. Tech's road games. Also, this is the Jackets' richest underdog spot by 5.5 points.

-- DePaul takes a shocking 4-2 Big East record into tonight's game at Seton Hall. Oliver Purnell's squad is a 10.5-point road underdog.

-- Pepperdine, which was a two-point underdog for tonight's game at San Francisco early this morning, owns a 6-1 spread record in seven games as a 'dog this season.

-- Even with former McDonald's All-American Keith Frazier out with eligibility issues, SMU won and covered in a 66-52 win at Tulane last night. Nic Moore led the Mustangs with 18 points and seven assists, as they took the money as 8.5-point road 'chalk.'

-- North Carolina has won four in a row after cruising to an 87-71 win at Wake Forest as a seven-point road favorite.

-- If you don't have San Jose St. on your fade list, it might be time. I had Boise St. last night in an 86-36 win as a 21-point home favorite. The Broncos have now won three in a row after dropping their first three Mountain West Conference games. Derrick Marks scored a game-high 19 points for BSU. Since Anthony Drmic was lost to a season-ending injury, Marks has really picked up his game. The senior guard from Chicago has scored 31 points three times this year, in addition to a 30-point game and a 28-point effort. Back to the Spartans, who are winless straight up in 17 games against D-1 foes. They have lost six players to three season-ending injuries and three departures from the program. Not one San Jose St. player is scoring in double figures.

-- Mississippi St. ended a 22-game road losing streak with last night's 78-71 win at Auburn. In other SEC action, Texas A&M improved to 3-2 in SEC play with a 62-50 win over Texas A&M.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Home side won both Xavier-Providence games LY; Musketeers lost by 6 in their visit here. Xavier is 0-2 as Big East road dog, losing all three road games by 3-12-13 points. Home side won all six of their league contests. Friars won three of last four games, are 2-1 as home favorites, with wins at home by 12-3 points. Xavier has worst eFG% defense in league. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 3-6 vs spread.

DePaul is 4-2 in Big East (6-0 vs spread) after being 10-98 the previous six years; they've split last four games with Seton Hall, but lost last five visits here; four of five losses here were by 8+ points. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Pirates' league games; Hall lost two of last three games, with last two home games both going OT. DePaul is 2-0 as road dog, they've lost league games by 17-6 points. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 2-4 vs spread.

Alabama won five of last six games with Arkansas, winning five of last six visits here- they lost 65-58 here LY. Both sides last two games; Tide is 2-0 as SEC road dog, Hogs are 1-1 as home favorites, losing 96-82 to Ole Miss in last game Saturday. SEC home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8-2 vs spread. Alabama plays slowest tenpo in SEC, makes 27.5% of 3's, worst in SEC. Arkansas forces turnovers 23.1% of time, but has worst defensive eFG% in league.

Ohio State is 17-1 in last 18 games with Northwestern, winning last nine, including last four here by 1-2-10-16 points. Buckeyes are 2-2 as Big 14 favorites- they lost last two road games by 3-9 points. Northwestern lost last four games, last three by 7-5-2 points- they're 0-2 as home dogs, as visitor covered all five of their league games. Wildcats force turnovers an inadequate 9.5% of time. Big 14 home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread.

NC State won six of its last nine games with Miami, beating Hurricanes by 9 in ACC tourney LY; Wolfpack won last three visits here by total of 11 points. State is 6-0 vs spread in ACC, 2-0 as dog; their ACC losses are by 10-2 points. Miami won at Duke last week, then lost tough game at Notre Dame by 5; three of their four ACC games were won by 5 or less or in OT. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.

Maryland/Indiana both won their last three games. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Hoosiers' league games- they won both their home games by 3 points each. Maryland is 2-1 on Big 14 road, with only loss at Illinois by 7. Terps are shooting only 39.2% inside arc, last in league, but 35.5% on arc, #2 in league. Big 14 home teams are 12-8 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Indiana foes shoot only 29.2% from the arc.

UCLA won 16 of last 18 games with Oregon State, winning seven of last eight visits here, but Beavers are rejuvenated under coach Tinkle, holding teams to 26.6% from arc while forcing turnovers 19.4% of time. UCLA won its last three games; they're 1-3 on road, with only win a busride to USC. Oregon State are 2-0 at home in Pac-12; they allowed 56 points or less in each of last four games. Pac-12 home teams are 9-3 vs spread in games with spread of less than 5 points.

Arizona won its last nine games with Stanford, taking last four here by 2-9-13-3 points. Wildcats got upset at Oregon State; all four of their Pac-12 wins are by 14+ points, with win at Oregon. Pac-12 home underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. Stanford won seven of last eight games, with only loss at UCLA in double OT; they swept Washington schools in two conference home games. Arizona is 2-2 overall on road, winning at UTEP, losing at UNLV- they're 9-1 vs top 100 teams.

Western Kentucky us 5-0 in Sun Belt, upsetting Old Dominion at home, then sweeping Miami swing by total of 10 points last week. Hilltoppers are holding teams to 28% from arc. UTEP is making 41.7% if its 3's in league play./ Miners won six of last seven games; they're 4-1 in C-USA with all four wins by 9+- their only league loss was at home. C-USA home teams are 8-4 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.

Gonzaga won its last six games with St Mary's, winning last three here by 14-5-22 points. Bulldogs played five of first seven WCC tilts on road; they're 1-1 as WCC home favorites, winning by 31-22 points, but failed to cover last three games overall. St Mary's won/covered all seven of its league games; they're 2-0 as underdogs this year, covering vs Creighton, St John's. WCC double digit home favorites are 1-5 vs spread.

Iona won five in row, 11 of last 13 games with Rider, winning four of last five visits here, winning by 20-4-13-3 points. Gaels won six of last seven games, are 2-2 on MAAC road, with wins by 1-14. Rider won five of its last six games, with last three all decided by 3 or less points. Broncs are forcing turnovers 23.9% of time, tops in league. MAAC home teams are 5-11-1 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.

Eastern Washington is 3-2 in last five games with Northern Colorado, as last two meetings here both went to OT. Eagles are 0-2 as road favorites, winning by 6-8 points; road teams covered four of their five conference games. Bears won last four games; favorites covered four of its five games n Big Sky play. Northern is 2-1 on road, with only loss at Montana by 18. Big Sky home favorites of 7+ points are 2-7 against the spread.

Eastern Illinois won its last nine games, going 6-0 in OVC despite being underdog in three of six OVC games. Murray State won 12 of its last 14 games with Eastern, winning five of last six visits here, with wins by 6-9-13-33-4 points. Racers are 3-0 as OVC road favorites, winning by 9-16-27 points; they're making 39.2% from arc. Panthers are forcing turnovers 25.7% of time in OVC games. OVC home underdogs are 2-8 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting: TOP-25 from a Vegas Perspective
Scott Spreitzer


MOST OVERRATED RANKED TEAM: #23 INDIANA HOOSIERS

We have picked on other teams that were barely in the top-25 over the last few weeks and it has paid off. Last week, we called Wyoming our most overrated ranked team and cashed 24-hours later when they lost at home to San Diego State. A couple of weeks ago, when TCU was undefeated, we said the Horned Frogs should not be ranked. They proceeded to lose three straight games and have since lost four of five, overall. This week, Indiana gets the dubious honor. I actually have the Hoosiers ranked 35th in my power ratings.

Indiana is 14-4 SU as I write this, with close wins over Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in conference play. Three of those four wins could have gone either way. Then there are the “step-up” games, those against Louisville and Michigan State, both of which ended in losses by at least 20 points. Toss in a SU loss to Eastern Washington and the Hoosiers aren’t a top-25 team in my opinion. Indiana allows over 71 ppg on 43.1% shooting, which ranks 211th in defensive FG percentage allowed. Indiana hosts Maryland next and might catch the Terps at the right time. But after that, the Hoosiers have three road games in their next four outings, including trips to Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. I’ll be shocked if the Hoosiers get through their next seven games with more than four wins. I’ll certainly be looking to play against them on at least two occasions. Indiana is this week’s most overrated ranked team.

MOST UNDERRATED RANKED TEAM: #17 TEXAS LONGHORNS

Texas rolls into this week as the 17th ranked team in CBB according to the AP. I happen to believe they are ranked 5-6 slots too low. While they suffered odd and somewhat bad losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, their only other two losses came against top-ranked Kentucky and in OT to a 13-4 Stanford team. Texas has plenty of chances to climb a few spots over the next few games. It starts this weekend with a home game against Kansas and I will be looking to back the Longhorns if I get the number I believe the books will post. If Texas beats the Jayhawks, I may very well go against Texas when they travel to Ames, Iowa. But not because I don’t believe this is a strong team, but instead, I’ll be looking to go against them in a tough spot.

Texas plays some of the stingiest basketball on the defensive end. They have held their opponents to 56 ppg on 34% shooting, while holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc. Rick Barnes doesn’t have a superstar scorer, but instead has five players averaging between 9 ppg and 12 ppg. It’s a blue collar team, ranked 3rd in the nation in rebounds per game. This may be the hardest working team in the top-25 and they are this week’s most underrated ranked team.

UNRANKED “SNUBBED” TEAM: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Ohio State’s losses have all come against teams that have a great shot to be playing in the Big Dance and they’re off a loss to Iowa, so I understand the snub – I just don’t agree with it. They’re ranked 42nd by AP in this week’s rankings, while my ratings have Ohio State ranked as the 24th best team.

The Buckeyes nail 50% of their FGA on the season and have played stellar defense more often than not. While their game didn’t lead to a win over Louisville and North Carolina, I do believe they’re going to be in solid play-on spots shortly. I may pass when they face Northwestern on Thursday, but I expect to be in action when Thad Matta’s troops take the court against Indiana on January 25. Not only are the Buckeyes stingy on defense, but they’re also led in scoring by a true go-to-star in DeAngelo Russell, who’s averaging 18.6 ppg, to go along with 5 rpg and nearly 5 apg. No less than 10 players average in double digits in minutes played and I’m betting they’ll be up to the task at hand against the Hoosiers this weekend. For now, Ohio State is my snubbed team.

Good luck! Scott Spreitzer

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks January 24, 12:00 EST

John Calipari's Wildcats (18-0, 10-8 ATS) kept the flawless run intact Tuesday sneaking past Vanderbilt 65-57 but failed at the betting window as 21.5 point chalk.

Wildcats are an effective offensive team netting 75.5 points/game but their strength comes at the defensive end with it's second-ranked scoring defense (50.8 PPG) and top ranked field-goal defense (32.2%). Kentucky, in a class all to themselves its not difficult to make a case for Wildcats when they visit South Carolina Gamecocks (10-7, 7-8 ATS) who've hit a rough patch with four defeats in the last five outings.

However, against the number things get dicey. The Wildcats have a tendency to falter against the betting line when running the hardwood against a conference opponent (2-8 ATS). Keep in mind, South Carolina has a 6-3 ATS record as DD underdogs, 4-2 ATS mark as DD Dogs vs the conference and did toppled Kentucky 72-67 on this floor last year as 10-point underdogs. One final tid-bit, Cali's Cats have failed to cash last three when attempting to exact revenge for a conference loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golf Tour heads to California

Tournament: Humana Challenge
Date: Jan. 22-25
Location: La Quinta, California

The PGA Tour heads back to the continental United States when the players travel to California for the Humana Challenge in partnership with the Clinton Foundation this week. The tourney was formally named the Bob Hope Classic up until 2012 and has historically been an event with plenty of scoring.

Each of the past seven victors here have scored 24-under par or better with Patrick Reed’s 28-under being the best score last season. Typically, the field for this event is rather weak with many players not wanting to deal with the different format over the four days as they play with amateur partners through the first 54 holes and visit three different courses. This year there will be six players from the top-25 joining the field with Matt Kuchar at 11th being the highest-ranked golfer, while Phil Mickelson will make his first start since the Ryder Cup.

Let’s take a look at a few golfers who have a chance to string together birdies and get a win this weekend.

Golfers to Watch

Ryan Palmer (22/1): Palmer looks poised to have a big season after placing in the top-25 at each of the first two tournaments as he has put together five consecutive rounds of 69 or better. His 1.17 strokes gained putting (5th on tour) and ability to absolutely crush the ball (315.1 yards per drive, 3rd on tour) have allowed him to place in the top-6 at the tourney in three of the past four seasons, with this one not expected to be any different.

Patrick Reed (12/1): Reed is on the cusp of greatness as he has already grabbed four career PGA Tour victories at the age of 24. He knocked out a 63 at each course in this tournament last year, but should always be considered a risky pick due to his propensity to fall apart on any given day. However, the odds are pretty favorable for Reed as the chalk pick of this event.


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Justin Thomas (60/1): After putting together a big season on the Web.Com tour last season, Thomas is starting to make his mark on the big stage. He has finished in the top-25 at two of the past three PGA Tour events, including a sixth-place showing last week at the Sony Open. It may be tough for the 21-year-old to keep this recent hot streak going, but bettors should certainly not overlook the youngster against a fairly weak field.

Jerry Kelly (85/1): Kelly has been hot over the past few weeks with rounds better than 70 in eight of his past nine times out, as he is coming off a 12-under, 6th-place finish at last week’s Sony Open. The 48-year-old has just three PGA Tour victories in his career with his last one coming in 2009, but could use his experience to gain an edge against much of the youth in this event.

Andres Gonzales (250/1): Gonzales has never been much of a force on the PGA Tour, but was able to get his second Web.Com win last year and shot a 15-under in a 3rd-place performance in his latest tourney, the OHL Classic. The payoff would be huge if you are willing to take a risk and drop a unit wager on the journeyman.

Humana Challenge Betting Odds

Patrick Reed 12/1
Matt Kuchar 16/1
Ryan Palmer 22/1
Phil Mickelson 24/1
Chris Kirk 27/1
Zach Johnson 27/1
Bill Haas 28/1
Harris English 28/1
Keegan Bradley 28/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
Billy Horschel 35/1
Brandt Snedeker 35/1
Brendon Todd 35/1
Ryan Moore 35/1
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Jason Dufner 40/1
Tim Clark 50/1
Luke Donald 55/1
Russell Knox 55/1
Charles Howell III 60/1
Graham Delaet 60/1
Justin Thomas 60/1
Scott Piercy 60/1
Jason Kokrak 65/1
Kevin Na 65/1
Brendon de Jonge 75/1
Jonas Blixt 75/1
Paul Casey 75/1
Kevin Streelman 80/1
Daniel Summerhays 85/1
Jerry Kelly 85/1
Martin Laird 85/1
Nick Watney 85/1
Scott Stallings 85/1
Shawn Stefani 85/1
Tony Finau 85/1
Pat Perez 95/1
Brian Stuard 100/1
Cameron Tringale 100/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Ryo Ishikawa 110/1
Jason Bohn 120/1
Robert Garrigus 120/1
Ben Crane 130/1
Chesson Hadley 130/1
William McGirt 130/1
Boo Weekley 150/1
James Hahn 150/1
Jeff Overton 150/1
Matt Jones 150/1
Bo Van Pelt 170/1
Brendan Steele 170/1
Bryce Molder 170/1
Chris Stroud 170/1
Daniel Berger 170/1
George McNeill 170/1
Mark Wilson 170/1
Nicholas Thompson 170/1
Scott Langley 170/1
Stuart Appleby 170/1
John Peterson 180/1
Richard Sterne 180/1
Stewart Cink 180/1
Zac Blair 180/1
Brian Davis 190/1
Steven Bowditch 190/1
Troy Merritt 190/1
Andrew Svoboda 200/1
David Toms 200/1
Billy Hurley III 210/1
Blayne Barber 210/1
Carl Pettersson 210/1
Hudson Swafford 210/1
Jhonattan Vegas 210/1
Max Homa 210/1
Erik Compton 220/1
Michael Putnam 220/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 240/1
Adam Hadwin 250/1
Alex Cejka 250/1
Alex Prugh 250/1
Andres Gonzales 250/1
Andrew Putnam 250/1
Brice Garnett 250/1
Cameron Percy 250/1
Carlos Ortiz 250/1
Chad Campbell 250/1
Chad Collins 250/1
Charlie Beljan 250/1
Chez Reavie 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
D.J. Trahan 250/1
Danny Lee 250/1
David Lingmerth 250/1
Derek Fathauer 250/1
Fabian Gomez 250/1
Heath Slocum 250/1
J.J. Henry 250/1
Jarrod Lyle 250/1
Jason Gore 250/1
Jim Herman 250/1
Jim Renner 250/1
John Huh 250/1
John Merrick 250/1
John Rollins 250/1
Jonathan Randolph 250/1
Justin Hicks 250/1
Justin Leonard 250/1
Ken Duke 250/1
Kevin Kisner 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Lucas Glover 250/1
Luke Guthrie 250/1
Mark Hubbard 250/1
Martin Flores 250/1
Mike Weir 250/1
Nick Taylor 250/1
Oscar Fraustro 250/1
Patrick Rodgers 250/1
Retief Goosen 250/1
Ricky Barnes 250/1
Robert Allenby 250/1
Scott Brown 250/1
Scott Pinckney 250/1
Sean O' Hair 250/1
Spencer Levin 250/1
Steve Wheatcroft 250/1
Sung Joon Park 250/1
Tim Wilkinson 250/1
Tom Gillis 250/1
Tom Hoge 250/1
Woody Austin 250/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Thursday's free selection: Charlotte 49ers + 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: Take XAVIER +2½ over Providence

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: St Mary's Gaels/Gonzaga Bulldogs under 140

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Cal Poly - 8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Utah/Milwaukee over 187

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: George Washington -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: Take RHODE ISLAND -4½ over LaSalle

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Texas State Bobcats + 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Anthony Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Arkansas-Little Rock - 6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. Vegas

Bonus Play for Thursday, Jan 22, 2015: Washington at Colorado.

A tough spot for Washington heading out on the road. The Huskies are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and when these teams meet the home team is 4-0 ATS.

PLAY COLORADO.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday 8:00PM NCAAB

(539) UT ARLINGTON at (540) UL MONROE

Take: (539) UT ARLINGTON +4

Second meeting this season between these two entries, and I won’t be at all surprised if it’s a similar type of clash as the first game was.

Arlington seemed to be well on its way to a win against Monroe the first time around. But the Warhawks mounted a pair of big rallies, and eventually pulled out the road win in overtime. I’ll assume the visiting Mavericks won’t need to be reminded of that tough home loss, and the revenge motive should be substantial tonight.

This is the type of revenge setup I prefer. That is, road dogs who lost a very close home game to the opponent. There’s not going to be a lack of confidence as it’s a payback scenario from a close loss that could have gone either way, and it’s even better if the two teams are relatively closely matched, as it the case tonight.

I’m also curious to see how UL Monroe reacts to their very new residence atop the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks have been doormats for many years. They’re a robust 12-6 this year. Not bad for a team that over the prior six campaigns racked up an aggregate 34-110 mark.

I think there’s an argument to be made that this will the biggest two-game home stand UL Monroe has played in perhaps nine years, going back to their WAC days. The Saturday game with Georgia Southern figures to be a duel for first place. That’s not to suggest the Warhawks will get caught looking ahead here, but I certainly have no problem with that being the next up battle. And I think there’s a possibility that Monroe feels a new type of pressure they’re unfamiliar with as they take the court tonight.

I don’t see a particular advantage as far as the number is concerned, as there’s no question UL Monroe has earned the role of chalk tonight. But I really don’t see them being measurably better than the visitors and the close loss revenge angle is definitely in play here. I’ll be grabbing the points with UT Arlington this time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

NBA Comp Pick for Thursday, January 22, 2015: 10:35 PM EST

(507) BROOKLYN NETS VS (508) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: (507) BROOKLYN NETS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, January 22, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Brooklyn Nets and LA Clippers. Brooklyn is not going to get into an uptempo game with the LA Clippers. That's not their game anyway, 8th in the NBA in points allowed and 11th in field goal shooting defense. The Nets are 24-9 ATS against the NBA Pacific division and 11-5-1 ATS on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Clippers have a big game on deck at Phoenix and they are on a 1-4 ATS run, plus 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference. When these teams play the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Your Bonus Play is on the Nets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Art Aronson

Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech

1* Bonus Play Virginia Tech

Notre Dame is rolling, it’s 17-2 overall and 5-1 in ACC action, but I think all signs point for a letdown here vs. the lowly Hokies who are still seeking their first league victory. The Irish are most recently coming off a 75-70 home win over Miami on Saturday, rallying from a 12-point second half deficit. I think there’s some room to read between the lines when looking at Notre Dame though, the team rolled through its 13 non-conference games, but has come back down to Earth so to speak now that it’s in the thick of conference play; note that the Irish would hit 52.8 percent from the floor while hitting 40.1 percent from behind the arc to start, but have been limited to 46.4 and 36.4 respectively in ACC play. Also note that the Notre Dame rebounding has dropped as well, posting a plus-6.5 differential in non-conference play, compared to being outrebounded by 6.3 per game in league action. I think it’s also important to point out that the Irish have played just two true road games this year and both have ended in single-possession victories at UNC and Georgia Tech. Certainly the Hokies will be “hungry” today, no one likes to lose, VT has dropped five straight by an average of 14.8 points, which includes three losses to ranked opponents after Sunday’s 68-52 defeat at UNC. And note, this is in fact a spot in which Virginia Tech has excelled in for bettors, it’s 4-1 SU its last five in front of the home town crowd. Conversely, note that ND is a poor 3-9 SU in its last 12 true road contests. In my opinion, this line is a little high, making VIRGINIA TECH a very interesting and credible investment opportunity on Thursday night.

AAA Sports

 

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Marc Lawrence

Boston Celtics at Portland Trail Blazers 10:05PM

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Reason: Play - Boston Celtics
Edges - Celtics: 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS in this series, including 6-2 ATS away; and 17-5 ATS as road dogs 4.5 or more points away with same season revenge versus unrested opponents.? Trail Blazers: 8-19-1 ATS home after Suns; and 0-5 ATS before Wizards.? With the Celtics 2-0 ATS away versus unrested opponents this season, and Portland off a double revenge affair at Phoenix last night, we recommend a 1-unit play on Boston.? Thank you and good luck as always.

 

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Newsletter NBA Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take #504 Chicago (+3.5) over San Antonio (8 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 22)
The Bulls have not been playing great basketball as of late, and San Antonio has turned it around somewhat with the addition of Kawhi Leonard back in to the mix, but I like the Bulls in this spot. Chicago hasn’t played since Monday, and they will be ready to get back on the winning track in front of their home fans. The Bulls coaching staff is not pleased with the play of the team right now, and they will do everything they can to get the team prepared to battle with the Spurs. The Bulls matchup well with San Antonio on both ends of the floor, and they should be able to take advantage of their home court. Look for Chicago to push the tempo against some of the older Spurs players but for them to slow the game down when San Antonio goes a bit younger and smaller. This game should be close throughout, but the Bulls will pull away in the end to win by 7-9 points.