Thursday 1/21/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball betting TV guide: Must-watch, must-wager games
By STEVE MERRIL

College basketball is in full swing with conference play shaping the field for the NCAA tournament. Steve Merril has scoured the schedule for the must-watch, must-wager games for each day on the college hoops calendar so that you don’t miss any of the action.

Thursday – Kentucky Wildcats at Arkansas Razorbacks (ESPN)

Kentucky’s heralded freshmen have not played up to their talent level this season. This year’s team has been highly inconsistent - a trait previous Kentucky teams did not have. The Wildcats lost at Auburn Saturday despite the Tigers missing their best two perimeter players. Kentucky will be playing its fourth road game in five contests against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 7-2 SU at home this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Jan. 21 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Everyone assumed that Kentucky would win the SEC in a landslide again this season, and I'll admit I was one of those people. The SEC looked like the worst of the Power 5 Conferences in terms of depth (Power 6 if you want to include Big East) as it was last year. As of now, the Cats might not even be the third-best team in the improved league and they could fall out of the Top 25 with a loss Thursday at Arkansas, which is quite possible.

No. 23 Kentucky at Arkansas (+1)

A 7 p.m. ET tip on ESPN. Kentucky's stellar freshmen largely haven't lived up to the billing, especially Skal Labissiere. The Cats (13-4, 3-2) are off a 75-70 upset loss at Auburn on Saturday. Kentucky led 35-30 at the half, and the Wildcats were able to increase the lead to as many as 12 in the second half when Tyler Ulis hit a pair of free throws with 15:41 remaining. But then Auburn went on a 21-4 run. The game would see-saw back for a while from there, but the Tigers closed on a 10-3 run for the win. UK had won 18 in a row in the series. Jamal Murray has been the lone freshman to shine this season and had 20 points, while Ulis had 17 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Without Ulis, this team might be around .500. UK has had a player score at least 20 points in all five SEC games this season. That hasn't happened in the first five SEC games since 2009. Murray has scored in double digits in 15 straight.

Arkansas (9-8, 3-2) had a three-game winning streak snapped at LSU on Saturday, 76-74. . With the score tied 74-74, the Tigers' Craig Victor II put back an air-ball rebound with 4.2 seconds left. The Hogs' Anton Beard had a potential game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer come up short. Arkansas has five losses this season by four points or fewer. Anthlon Bell led the Razorbacks with 19 points. He is one of 10 players in the country with four-plus 3-pointers in nine or more games this season.

Key trends: UK is 1-5 against the spread in its past six road games. It is 1-8 ATS in its past nine on Thursday. The Hogs are 4-0 ATS in their past four SEC games. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

I'm leaning: Only senior Alex Poythress and a few seldom-used reserves have ever been to Arkansas' Bud Walton Arena, where Kentucky has lost all three of its games under John Calipari. It will be a "whiteout" in the arena. Still, I'm a tad surprised the Cats aren't bigger favorites. I'll take Kentucky.

No. 9 Iowa at Rutgers (+21)

Big Ten matchup at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. Is it time to start talking about Iowa (14-3, 5-0) as a potential Final Four contender? The Hawkeyes have beaten Michigan State twice already -- first team since 1965 to beat the same Top-5 opponent by at least 10 points twice in same season -- and bring a seven-game winning streak into this one off an 82-71 home win over Michigan on Sunday. The 5-0 start is Iowa's best in the conference since 1996-97. The Hawkeyes have won 11 consecutive Big Ten regular-season games dating back to last year, the school's longest streak since the 1969-70 conference season (14-0). Peter Jok is the reigning Big Ten Player of the Week, averaging 19.5 points and 3.5 rebounds last week. The Hawkeyes have won 10 of their past 14 true road games. They are 3-1 in true road games this season, with the lone loss by one at a very good Iowa State team.

Rutgers (6-13, 0-6) could well be the worst Power 5 team in the nation. The Scarlet Knights simply haven't even been competitive in their six Big Ten losses yet. They were obliterated 107-57 at home against Purdue on Monday. That was the worst home defeat in school history, and Purdue had rebounds (63) than the Scarlet Knights had points. It was the school's 21st straight Big Ten loss. Why is Coach Eddie Jordan still employed? Forwards Deshawn Freeman (knee), Shaq Doorson (broken foot) and Ibrahima Diallo (broken foot) are out for the season. Freshman wing Jonathan Laurent (concussion) may be back for Thursday's game. He has missed the past four games. Not like it will matter. Rutgers was beaten 81-47 in Iowa City last year.

Key trends: Iowa is 9-2-1 ATS in its past 12 vs. the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road. Rutgers is 4-18 ATS in its past 22 following a loss.

I'm leaning: Potential letdown game for Hawkeyes. Take the points.

No. 21 USC at Oregon (-3.5)

A 9 p.m. ET tip on the Pac-12 Network. How about the coaching job done at USC by Andy Enfield? The Trojans (15-3, 4-1) enter on a three-game winning streak, including a very impressive four-OT win over ranked Arizona and then an 89-75 win at UCLA last Wednesday. The Trojans raced out to an early 18-point lead vs. the Bruins and didn't look back in ending a six-game losing streak in the series. This is the first time USC has been ranked since Nov. 17, 2008. That season's roster included future NBA players DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson and Nikola Vucevic. The Trojans haven't finished above .500 since the 2010-11 season and won only three Pac-12 games last year.

Oregon (14-4, 3-2) had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 91-87 loss at Colorado on Sunday. Dillon Brooks scored 21 points on 9-for-13 shooting with five assists for the Ducks, while freshman guard Tyler Dorsey finished with 19 points. All four of Oregon's losses have come when allowing more than 70 points. All four of those losses also have come away from home. USC is the second ranked team Oregon has faced this season. The Ducks beat No. 20 Baylor back on Nov. 16 in Eugene. Oregon swept USC last year, winning 75-67 at home. The Ducks have won 10 straight against the Trojans, the longest streak in the series.

Key trends: USC is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight vs. teams with a winning record. Oregon is 11-3 ATS in its past 14 at home. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

I'm leaning: Ducks are way better at home. Take them.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Thursday's games..........

Cincinnati won three of last four games with Memphis, winning by 13-12 in last two played here. Bearcats are 3-4 in last seven games after its 10-2 start to season; winning last two home games by 19-11. Memphis is 0-2 in true road games, losing by 10 at South Carolina. 3 at UConn- they've got #2 eFG% defense but their offense is bad, #324 eFG%. AAC single digit home underdogs are 5-6 vs spread.

Kentucky lost last three visits to Arkansas by 1-13-2 points; they beat Hogs twice LY, by 17-15 points. Wildcats are 4-3 in last seven games, 1-3 in true road games, with only win by 16 at Alabama- they lost at both Auburn, LSU. Arkansas is 3-1 in last four games, winning first two SEC home tilts by 5-14. Hogs are shooting 44.7% on arc (#3 in US). SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 2-7 vs spread.

Northeastern won its last eight games with Hofstra, winning last four here by 7-5-8-8 points. Huskies lost two of last three games after a 3-0 start in CAA. Hofstra's bench plays 2nd-fewest minutes in nation; they lost last game at home in OT- Pride won two of three CAA road, games, losing by 11 at Charleston. CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-8 vs spread. Northeastern's eFG% defense is #288, not very good.

Arkansas State won three of last four games with Tex-Arlington; home side won three of four games- teams split last two played here. UTA is much-improved this year at 13-3, after being 31-32 last two years; they won first two Sun Belt home games by 15-20 points. ASU is also 5-1 in Sun Belt, but last four were at home- they upset Little Rock last game. Sun Belt double digit home favorites are 5-3 against the spread.

Ark-Little Rock won three of last four games with Texas State, losing in double OT here LY, winning by 4 year before. Trojans split last four on road- they're 2-1 on Sun Belt road, winning by 9-6 before losing by 3 at Ark State last game. Bobcats lost three of last four games, losing by 12-20-9 points- they split two Sun Belt home tilts, are 0-2 vs teams in top 200, losing by 5-12. Sun Belt home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.

Cal's primary ballhandler Wallace (hand) is out 4-6 weeks; this is their first game without him. Cal lost its last five games with Arizona State, losing by 11ot-35 in last two here. ASU is 1-4 in Pac-12, with only win at home over Wazzu; Sun Devils are 2-3 in true road games, went 0-2 on LA trip in only conference road games. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-8 against the spread.

Ohio State won seven of last eight games with Purdue; they lost here by hoop LY; Buckeyes are 4-2 in Big 14 but losses were by 25-35 points; they also lost by 20 at UConn, won at Northwestern. Boilers are 5-3 in last eight games after an 11-0 start; they have revenge game at Iowa on deck Sunday. Purdue has two home wins by 17 in league play, plus loss to Iowa. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 9-6 vs spread.

USC is 4-1 in Pac-12 after being 15-47 last four years; they led by 22 at Washington in only conference loss. Oregon won its last ten games with USC, winning last five games here by 10-6-3-12-8 points. Trojans won at Wazzu/UCLA, as well as by 12 at UCSB. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. Ducks beat Cal/Stanford by 3-13 points in only two Pac-12 home games; they're 6-2 in last eight D-I games.

Arizona won its last 11 games with Stanford, winning last five here, by 2-9-13-3-7 points. This is Wildcats' first road game with leading scorer Trier; they're 2-2 in true road games, getting swept in LA after winning at Gonzaga/ASU- they lost in four OTs at USC. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread. Stanford is 3-2 in Pac-12; all three of its Pac-12 home games were decided by 6 or less points.

Utah won its last three games with Washington State; home side is 5-1 in series games, with Utes losing two of three visits here. Utes scored less than 60 points in last four games; they're 2-3 in league, losing by 2-13 at Stanford/Cal before winning by hoop at Colorado. Wazzu allowd 91 ppg in losing last three games; their only Pac-12 win (1-4) was over UCLA here. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-2 against the spread.

Gonzaga won its last eight games with St Mary's, winning last three in Moraga by 17-28-10 points. Both sides are 6-1 in WCC; Zags struggled but won both WCC road games, winning in OT at USF, by 2 at Santa Clara. St Mary's is 4-0 at home in WCC with all four wins by 11+; they played only one game in last 12 days. WCC home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Gaels shoot 46% on arc, best in country.

North Dakota State won five of last seven games with IPFW, in a series where home side won eight of last nine meetings. Bison are 1-5 in last six visits to Fort Wayne, losing 82-71/77-71 in last two. State is 3-4 in true road games, losing by point at Oral Roberts in only Summit road game. IPFW won its two Summit home games by 6-20 points. Summit League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-3 vs spread.

Home side won both Mercer-East Tennessee games LY, with two games decided by total of six points. Mercer is 4-1 in SoCon, splitting pair on road, with only loss by 12 at Chattanooga- they turn ball over 21% of time (#318). ETSU is 4-1 in league, scoring 81+ points in all five games; they won both home games by 3-37 points. SoCon home favorites are 13-5 vs spread. Bucs are shooting 38.7% on arc, #30 in country.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Arizona State at California January 21, 9:00 EST

Cal Golden Bears (12-6, 9-9 ATS) suffering three consecutive Pac-12 road losses, the most recent a 77-71 defeat at Stanford as -3.5 point road favorites return to Berkeley to host conference rival Arizona State Sun Devils (11-7, 8-9 ATS). Golden Bears' unblemished home record (11-0, 7-4 ATS) could take a hit. Cal has lost the services of leading scorer, senior point guard Tyrone Wallace (15.4). If that were not enough bad news, Golden Bears haven't been able to solve Arizona State losing each of its last five vs Sun Devils (1-3-1 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

We are now just over three months away from the first Saturday of May and the Kentucky Derby, and we had two more key Derby preps over the holiday weekend.

I am not sure we saw the next Run for the Roses winner in action, but we saw a couple of solid performances.

Mo Tom won Saturday’s $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. The Tom Amoss trainee returned $6.40 as the betting favorite and my top pick in the field of nine, stopping the timer in 1:43.18 for the one mile and 70-yard race. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 88.

Discreetness won Monday’s $150,000 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park. Trained by William Fires, the colt came into the race off a win in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park in the slop. The colt returned $20.20 and was timed in 1:38.05 for the mile race, producing a Beyer Speed Figure of 83.

His current odds for the Kentucky Derby is a hefty 200-1.

Mohaymen is still the betting favorite at 6-1. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is being pointed toward the $350,000 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30, which is the next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

Current Kentucky Derby Odds:
Mohaymen 6-1
Mor Spirit 8-1
Airoforce 18-1
Swipe 20-1
Greenpointcrusader 25-1
Toews On Ice 25-1
Flexability 30-1
Gift Box 30-1
Drefong 40-1
Conquest Big E 45-1
Sail Ahoy 45-1
Shagaf 45-1


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (12:35 ET)
#3 Alycar Flash 2-1
#2 Big Saver 5-2
#8 Kylie's Kid 5-1
#7 El Maxi 10-1

Analysis: Alycar Flash set the early fractions and headed for home with a clear lead but got run down late to come up a neck shy. The gelding owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks capable of shaking loose against this group. The gelding has five sibs that are winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner For Oby ($137,712).

Big Saver debuts for the Sancal barn that is showing a 2 for 9 mark (with a +ROI) with first time starters. He is out of an Unbridled mare that has dropped five foals to race, all winners. Castellano takes the call for the low profile outfit.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,7,8
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,7,8 / 2,3,4,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 8 Clm $30,000B (4:05 ET)
#1 Spectacular Flash 4-1
#4 Breach of Duty 3-1
#6 Competitive Player 7-2
#5 Zebrano 5-1

Analysis: Spectacular Flash was off poorly after rearing at the start last out and was not a threat in a sixth place finish. The winner Chatt Hills was one of three to exit that race to win next out, taking a $30,000 restricted claimer. The filly was a sharp winner two back against $20,000 non-winners of two over the main track here. She came back with a quick work on Jan. 15 for the Nicks barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Breach of Duty is cross entered in a race at Tampa Bay Downs today but fits if Ness elects to ship her here. She beat $15,000 non-winners of four last out at Philly. Ness claimed her out of that race and is 33% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: 3 Alycar Flash 2-1
R5: #10 Scorpion Aly 12-1
R5: #11 Daisy a Day 10-1
R7: #6 Allstar Dancer 10-1
R7: #1 Animal Instinct 15-1
R9: #10 One Summer Nite 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$4800 - FILLIES & MARES - CLAIMING $6500.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 SPORTSONTHEBEACH 10/1


# 1 POLK DOT HANOVER 5/1


# 8 LAURA MAE 9/1


The consensus in this one is that SPORTSONTHEBEACH is the one to beat and look at those fair morning line odds. Formidable driver-trainer, winning 27 percent of the time. Appears to be a terrific bet. Excellent win stat combined with recent great performances. We think she can handle this group. POLK DOT HANOVER - This entrant has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 74 avg class figure. Should play well in this event. A very nice win rate has been recorded by entrants beginning from the 1 position. LAURA MAE - Race players love to play the driver of this mare - great win rate these days. McClure and Lock have a very nice working relationship. Excellent results from their races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 1:53 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 61 - Purse:$2800 - SIX YEAR OLDS AND UNDER NW 2 PM A/O $5000 LT AE: MARES NW 3 PM LT J TAGGART JR 3 OVER 6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 WIN WIN HANOVER 10/1


# 1 HD MAIBACH 5/2


# 4 COLOSSAL CHAOS 7/2


Really keen on the probability of WIN WIN HANOVER taking down the winner's share in this event especially at such a decent 10/1. Aldrich is racking up the wins most recently. Excellent win clip makes this standardbred our choice. HD MAIBACH - Take a look at this solid standardbred's average speed stat of 66 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great wager. With a 66 avg class rating, this entrant has one of the most competitive class edges in the group. COLOSSAL CHAOS - This race could very well be controlled by this mare. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will prove that.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6020 Class Rating: 45

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 21, 2015 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 21, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 PLAGIO 2/1


# 5 SR. DIPUTADO 5/2


# 3 MENSAJE DE TEXTO 10/1


PLAGIO is the most respectable bet in this race. Garcia has one of the strongest winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Garcia has him trained strongly to break sharply out of the starting gate. Earning some nice money in dirt route races. SR. DIPUTADO - Can't overlook the connections here, a 20 winning percentage, one of the most respectable at getting into the winner's circle. Ought to go to the front end and may never look back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 52

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 QUIET VIRTUE (ML=3/1)


QUIET VIRTUE - If the front runners get weary, this filly will kick into high gear. This filly is probably the best late runner in the field. The Jan 7th race at Penn National was at a class level of (68). Dropping down the class scale a significant amount, so she should be in a good spot. This filly is in fine form. Ended up third on January 7th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SWEET ROCK (ML=5/2), #6 STAR SHACKLETON (ML=4/1), #2 SOMETHING SAINTLY (ML=6/1),

SWEET ROCK - Didn't end up on the board on December 4th at Laurel. Followed it up with another lackluster try. STAR SHACKLETON - This equine hasn't been close in either of her last couple of races. SOMETHING SAINTLY - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Doubtful that the speed rating she recorded on Dec 10th will be enough in this event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 QUIET VIRTUE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with 2

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:15pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,100 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 WILD CARD HIT (ML=4/1)
#3 LOVIN LADY (ML=5/1)


WILD CARD HIT - The jockey/trainer duo of Leon and Inirio has a strong ROI together. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a nice effort in the last race within the last 30 days. Just see her last speed fig, 73. That one fits well in this field. LOVIN LADY - Utilizing this jock/conditioner combination is a good choice. Gilligan comes to ride after getting to know the mare in the last event. This mare is in good form, having run a nice race on January 2nd, finishing first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WILD ABOUT JACK (ML=2/1), #1 SEATTLE SASS (ML=3/1), #5 DREAM PEGASUS (ML=5/1),

WILD ABOUT JACK - Hasn't been on the Turfway Park oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. This vulnerable equine hasn't been close at the finish recently. SEATTLE SASS - Looked good on Dec 20th, finishing first, but no workouts since is a bit troublesome. Unlikely that the speed figure she garnered on December 20th will be enough in this event. I don't think this less than sharp equine likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one hole. DREAM PEGASUS - Difficult to put any cash on this mare on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 WILD CARD HIT on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 1/21 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,3,4,5/5,6,7/3,5,7/1,7,10/9 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,7,10/9/6,9,10/4,5,7,10 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,7,10/2,6,7/1/2,4,5,9

MEET STATS: 206 - 625 / $1101.90 BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $112.90

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 57 / $183.80

Best Bet: BIG BANG BOOM (5th)

Spot Play: PONDER THE DREAM (2nd)


Race 1

(4) SANDY DE VIE displayed good speed both early and late last week and will likely try to take this group right down the road. (1) MADDYS CREDIT is the first foal to race out of a well-bred dam that raced once and didn't break 2:04. Based on the late speed she showed in her qualifiers she looks ready to roll at first asking. (5) ON THE MINUTE MARK is a 1/2 sister to local mare Mea Lilley Mark, a 12-time winner that took a mark of 1:52 flat on a 7/8ths mile track. She likely has a lot more to offer than what was displayed in the lone qualifier.

Race 2

(5) PONDER THE DREAM is out of a dam that won the Robert Stewart stakes at 2 and has produced 4 winners from 4 foals so far, including $214K-earning 14-time winner Can He Go. This filly's final quarters signal readiness. (7) DOCS DIVA is out of the well-bred unraced Artsplace mare House of Pan that has produced several useful winners including locals Docs Hoss and Docs Hollywood. Her Jan. 14 qualifier over a 'good' track was quite good; using. (6) MONEY MAGIC was beaten by a sharp debut winner last time and should be on your Pick 5 tickets, but is worth trying to beat if she goes favored.

Race 3

(7) MAGICAL PUMPKIN pops up in a conditioned claimer here after facing much better recently and should be on go when the gate leaves. (3) FREDDIE also faces easier here while tagged for the first time and looks like the main foe to the choice. (5) WIZARD OF OSNEY showed good closing power in both his qualifier and comeback start. Moving in 5 posts gives him an upset chance.

Race 4

(7) WINDSUN GLORY was an impressive upset winner in her debut and this group isn't that much tougher. Look for her to double up here. (10) SHEZ A GOLD MINE faces easier and should be blasting early. (1) UNO CINCUENTA raced evenly in the Blizzard series but had a nice last quarter on a track rated good. She should have a big shot here.

Race 5

(9) BIG BANG BOOM went a big trip last week in fast time on a track rated 'good'. He looks best here and will take some beating. (3) GIOVANNI finished next to the choice last time and could trip-out here from a better post. (7) BAD GAMER will be closing late but might have trouble with the top two.

Race 6

(6) COUNTRY PROPHET didn't race very well over 'good' tracks the past two starts, but he can rebound here if the track is fast. (10) HURRICANE HAZEL got hung out to dry last time but retains Filion here and will be a threat off a reasonable trip. (9) TYMAL WIZARD is one of the best ones in here but is usually a victim of his own racing style, thus the 1-19 record.

Race 7

(5) R U MACHIN ME looks to drop-and-pop here and should get sent hard by Drury from the outset. (10) VEGILANTE HANOVER went a big first up trip last week only to hang in the last couple of strides. Debuting for the top barn he's an obvious threat. (7) STONEHOUSE PETEY drops into a claimer for the first time, but has a stale date most recently. The time to play this one might be next week.

Race 8

(2) KADDY made a bold move last time and sustained it to register an upset, beating many of these. She can repeat here. (6) VICS ROYAL LADY fell just short to the choice and will likely set the pace here again. (7) AMITYVILLE LINDY closed with a flourish late to complete the tri behind the top two and is another to consider for your Pick 4 tickets.

Race 9

(1) NEW STANDARD was much the best last week but too far back in too much traffic for too long, which cost him the win. He should get moving sooner here. (5) KWICKY KWANZAA missed a month of action before last week's even race and should be much better here. (6) WINDSONG LEOPOLD closed strongly for third last week and his last 1/4 speed on that occasion should be respected.

Race 10

(5) TERRORCAM faces much easier here and should be prominent throughout. (9) LUCKY COCKTAIL has done well in a similar class out of town and should be gunning to the front early. (4) WHITEGLANCE had some gait issues last week. If she can stay flat here she will be dangerous. (2) IN THE SHADOWS should get a good following trip and take a share. (5) MARACHERE rarely misses a check and should grab a piece of this.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 1/21 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 15 - 45 / $121.60

BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $8.60

Best Bet: IMAGE OF FELICIA (11th)

Spot Play: SAINT WILLIAM A (1st)


Race 1

(2) SAINT WILLIAM A raced very well for Stalbaum last week after 5 weeks on the shelf and this veteran should make a nice living at this $12,500 claiming level. (3) HOT RODDY tumbles in class second start for Banca. (4) DECISIVE DESTINY got the job done in his local return and he clearly deserves a long look here.

Race 2

(3) LIGHTNING STRIKE rallied for checks in his last two from tough spots and the major post relief makes him a big player tonight. (1) AMASA AL has finished third in his last three and is in reasonably good form but isn't always the best win candidate. (4) MYBROTHERGEORGE is the rare Banca trainee who's really done nothing off the claim.

Race 3

(2) OCEANS MOTION has loads of back class and gets a driver upgrade to Kakaley; tons to like here. (4) M A REFLING should be on the move early for the Robertson barn, which did had a winner Monday night after a poor start to 2016. (1) DON'T STARE will look to protect early position for Team MacDonald.

Race 4

(4) PLAYAWAY N drops and gets needed post relief for live connections. (2) JUST SAYIN ships in from Jersey with plenty of early speed to offer. (6) LOCAL ART has beaten these in the past and may have something to offer off the layoff for Stalbaum.

Race 5

(7) LOVINEVERYMINUTE blasted down the road and went too fast before quitting in her debut for Allard via claim; price will be much better tonight from this spot. (1) SENTIMENTAL LADY bumps up in class off the claim while razor-sharp and she draws best. (3) QUICKSILVERCANDY A was charging up the rail last week and just missed in a wild finish.

Race 6

(3) ZIGGY SKY was outbattled last week by a classy rival; Bartlett should head to the front from this spot and never look back. (5) FOUR BOYS raced evenly off cover last out and he can kick home nicely with any sort of positive setup. (2) ARTISTIC BLUE raced willingly from the pocket in his 2016 debut; lightly raced horse could have more to offer.

Race 7

(2) CHAMPAGNE SHOWER had no chance from post eight last week in her debut for new connections; worth a look from the better post if the price is right. (6) WANNA ROCK N ROLL doesn't draw well but she's a good fit with these. (5) I DO IT MYSELF has gotten along well with Zeron in her last two.

Race 8

(7) BABY REMIND ME has been better in her last few and does have sharp early speed if she wants to get into play; there's clearly no standouts in here. (3) KIDDIE MCCARDLE gets Sears back in the bike driving for Allard. (5) SIMPLE SAVER N is up in class off a couple of losses but the import appears to have ability.

Race 9

(4) DISARREI debuts for new connections via claim and may be more aggressively handled by Bartlett. (1) UNCLE GOODFELLOW drops, draws best and looms the one to beat. (2) FITZ'S Z TAM has been sharp for quite some time now; let's see if he can maintain his form for his new barn.

Race 10

(1) HARDTS OR BETTOR has been an awesome claim for Banca and he did finish with pace last week from a tough spot; Bartlett takes control tonight and never looks back. (2) COACH CAL debuts for Blumenfeld via claim and could be sitting the pocket from start to finish. (4) BUBBIE BOY drops in for a tag and can be heard from late.

Race 11

(5) IMAGE OF FELICIA missed a nose to a classy rival last week and faces a pretty blank field here; down the road at odds-on. (1) GODDESS'S ROSA gets much-needed post relief. (2) BREWSKI is up a notch in class off a decent second place finish last out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Charles Town (2nd) Bases Loaded, 7-2
(7th) Rico Capote, 7-2


Delta Downs (1st) Mr. Shad, 3-1
(8th) Run Margarita, 3-1


Fair Grounds (2nd) Only One Wish, 6-1
(8th) Waging War, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) Bourbon Warfare, 4-1
(10th) Depeche Chat, 3-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Surprising Soul, 6-1
(7th) White Bluff, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Mama Zee, 9-2
(8th) Quiet Virtue, 3-1


Turfway Park (2nd) Simeon, 6-1
(7th) Score Babe, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

Quick look at the six best college basketball conferences..........

6) SEC-- Who had Texas A&M/South Carolina as top two teams?

5) Big 14-- Indiana/Iowa are unbeaten in league; Michigan State lost three in row.

4) Big East-- Villanova has won 22 conference games in row.

3) Pac-12-- Who had Washington/USC as top two teams?

2) ACC-- Louisville cruised last two games since losing at Clemson.

1) Big X-- Baylor is the surprise leader with 5-1 mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

771 SAN FRANCISCO @ 772 SANTA CLARA 11:00 PM

Take: SAN FRANCISCO +3.5

San Francisco is not a particularly good team, but the Dons are pretty entertaining to watch. This team plays as if defense is a foreign concept they have no desire to explore. That means the Dons are predictable to an extent. If they’re hitting their shots, they can hang with some pretty good opponents. If they get defensed by the opposition, they basically have no chance because they can’t stop anything.

The good news for San Francisco tonight is that while Santa Clara is a clock milker, it’s not like the Broncos are any good defensively. Against teams in the upper reaches as far as adjusted tempo is concerned, Santa Clara has only two wins. One of those was a narrow escape against San Jose State and they also managed to defeat Portland.

The Broncos are certainly capable of getting a win here. They should get plenty of good looks, and it’s not like the team is incapable of getting hot, particularly when talking about Jared Brownridge. Plus, if the whistles are plentiful, Santa Clara is decent at the stripe. But matching the teams head to head categorically, it’s the Dons owning most of the advantages in the areas I give the most weight to.

The game itself doesn’t have a great deal of meaning aside from the rivalry that exists between these teams. Both the Dons and Broncos are 3-5 in league play, and if either of these teams are still playing past the WCC tourney, it would constitute a major surprise. For what it’s worth, San Francisco has been getting it done on the road, posting a surprising 36-16-1 ATS ledger in its last 53 lined road games. I can see the Dons checking off another winner in the spread column here is what looms as a close game. I’ll take the available points with San Francisco.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016 9:05 PM EST

(705) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (706) DENVER NUGGETS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, January 21, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Nuggets in Denver. Memphis is a solid defensive team preferring a slower pace, No. 6 in the NBA in points allowed. The under is 17-5 in the Grizzlies last 22 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Memphis just finished up a long homestand and now head to the thin Denver mountain air. Denver is 11-0 under the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Look for the visitors to control the tempo and the under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, including 5-1 under on this court. Play Memphis/Denver Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: THURS: Penn St +6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Memphis vs Cincinnati

Bonus Play Cincinnati

I'm recommending a play on Cincinnati on Thursday. The Bearcats can't afford to lose much more ground, sitting at 3-3 in the AAC, looking up at 7-0 SMU. The Bearcats will welcome Memphis to town, a team that plays defense, but can't shoot straight. The Tigers rank 321st in FG percentage and 328th in 3-point accuracy. Josh Pastner's squad is playing just their third true road game of the season tonight, having lost their first two to UConn and South Carolina. Memphis made just 34% of their FGA in those games and I expect more struggles for the Tigers on the offensive end tonight. Cincy has held their "guests" to 63 ppg on 37.7% shooting and they own a big-time assist-turnover ratio, averaging 19 apg and just 11 tpg. That's an important note because Memphis has covered just 14 of their last 39 against teams that average no more than 12 tpg. The Tigers have also damaged bankrolls in the role of an underdog, entering on a 3-11 ATS slide when getting points. I'm recommending a play on Cincinnati minus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.