Thursday 07/16/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LEE KOSTROSKI

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
Ervin Santana has not come close to matching the success that he had last season but he has posted impressive numbers against Oakland in his career. Santana is 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA against Oakland in 14 games including a perfect 4-0 and a 1.50 ERA in Oakland. Santana has had some rough outings this year but Oakland will be by far the weakest hitting team he has faced. The A’s are batting just .245 for the season and Oakland has been a losing team at home this year. The Angels have quickly recovered from a tough first two months of the year to lead the AL West sitting twelve games above .500. The Angels have cashed some big tickets recently, winning eight of the last nine as underdogs while also producing wins in seven of the last nine road games. The road team has won five of the last six meetings in this series and the Angels are a hot offensive team even with some key injuries. Los Angeles scored 7.3 runs per game while hitting .326 in the final ten games before the break. Los Angeles is 16-10 against left-handed starters this season including a win over Dallas Braden in the last game between these teams. Braden has had a nice season but he allowed five runs against the Angels in that start and he receives the lowest run-support in the AL at 3.47 runs per nine-innings. Braden has also had some personal distractions of late and the A’s are just 2-4 in his last six starts and 8-10 behind him overall this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Under 9.5
Homer Bailey of the Reds has struggled so far in his young career. That’s helping to give us great line value here. This total opened up as the biggest total (9.5) on the board for Thursday. That’s a great value because Bailey is indeed showing signs of having turned the corner this season. Even though he struggled with command in his first two outings, he’s been tough to hit so far this year. Don’t be fooled by his 5.16 ERA this season. Teams are hitting just .195 against Bailey this season. With his walks now down (just 2 in his last 13.1 innings) Bailey is transitioning from wild and unpredictable to solid plus very tough to hit. In his last two outings he’s allowed just two walks and ten hits in 13.1 innings. Bailey will be facing a Brewers team that’s been “all or nothing” so far this month. Milwaukee has been held to two runs or less in five of their eleven games this month.
Look for Milwaukee’s sticks to be held “in check” once again here and the key to the under in this match-up is that the Reds are also quite likely to have a quiet night at the plate. Cincinnati has averaged just three runs per game in their last 13 games. Here the Reds will be facing Braden Looper of the Brewers. The right-hander has given up just 23 hits in his last 24.1 innings on the mound. Looper has lasted at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. Note that, in all six of those “workmanlike outings” Looper never allowed more than seven hits. He’s 6-3 in his career against the Reds and he’s held them to a .232 batting average. The biggest issue for Looper in recent outings has been the long ball. However, despite playing their home games in a homer-friendly park, the Reds rank 20th in the majors in terms of home runs hit this season. They just don’t have the pop in their lineup to take advantage of Looper’s long ball struggles and, as noted above, Bailey really appears to have turned the corner for the Reds. Being able to get 9 as a “win number” is simply an added bonus here. We’ll take it! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cajun Sports

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
Petco Park will be the site of a four-game set between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Colorado Rockies. The Rockies look to continue their recent success winning five of their last seven heading into the break. They will send right-hander Aaron Cook to the bump with his 8-3 W/L record and ERA of 3.98. Cook has dominated the Padres over his career posting a record of 12-4 W/L with an ERA of 2.37 in twenty-two appearances, twenty of those were starts. His success over the Padres has also come on the road going 5-1 W/L his last eight trips here with an ERA of 1.61 although he didn’t earn a win here on May 5th despite pitching eight strong innings, allowing only one run on five hits as the Rockies lost in ten innings by a score of 2 to 1. Cook is 6-1 W/L his last 7 starts overall and 4-0 W/L his last 4 starts on the highway. Colorado is 4-0 W/L on the road versus a team with a losing record, 11-1 W/L their last 12 road games facing a right-handed starter and 15-4 W/L when facing a losing team overall. The Padres will counter with right-hander Chad Gaudin who is 4-7 W/L on the season with an ERA of 5.15. He is 1-3 W/L when he takes the hill at home with an ERA of 6.14. Gaudin is 2-5 W/L his last 7 trips to the bump this season. The Padres are 17-38 W/L when installed as an underdog, 8-21 W/L their last 29 games overall and 7-19 W/L their last 26 versus right-handed starters including 4-0 W/L their last 4 at home. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Rockies win by 2.5 runs and our Math Model also signals a play on the visitor as they get the win by 2.87 runs. Lay the short price as the Rockies continue their run at the playoffs and overwhelm the host Padres on Thursday night.

Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 5 San Diego Padres 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Carlo Campanella

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Atlanta returns from the All-Star break as large Favorites as they host the NY Mets on Thursday. The Braves start Lowe on the mound, who's won 2 of his last 3 starts, however, he's a money burning 4-10 in the home Favorite role between -150 and -200. With Lowe playing at the level of his competition, the Oddsmakers are offering extreme value on the Mets here, as they're 2-0 in Atlanta this season. The Mets entered the break on a 2 game winning streak, will back them as a live road Dog on Thursday.
Play on: NY Mets

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Surprisingly, this will be the first time in nearly three months that these NL West rivals have hooked up. The Rockies took two of three from the Padres back on Memorial Day Weekend, but have since become a much better team, going 29-13 for new manager Jim Tracy. Tonight's starter Aaron Cook has dominated the Padres in his career (12-4, 2.37 ERA) + owns a 10-3 team start record on the road off a team win. San Diego is hitting an abysmal .210 as a team at home.
Play on: Colorado

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

Houston + over Los Angeles
The Astros won the first series between these teams at a time when Los Angeles was playing extremely well and the Astros have surged to .500 after a very poor start to the season. Houston has actually won six of the last eight meetings between these teams and the Astros won six of the last eight games before the All Star break to pull closer in the NL Central race. The Astros are batting .311 against left-handed pitching in the last ten games and starter Wandy Rodriguez should start to be considered the dark horse in the Cy Young race. The Astros have won his last four starts and he has 106 strikeouts and only 40 walks allowed. In four of his last six starts he allowed one or zero runs and he has pitched well on the road this season after only being a strong home pitcher earlier in his career. Houston is 12-6 when Rodriguez takes the mound and he allowed just one run against the Dodgers earlier this season. Randy Wolf has pitched much better than his record indicates but he has not been as dominant as Rodriguez and he benefits from man of his starts being in very friendly venues. Wolf is yet to win at home this season however and his ERA is significantly higher at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers bullpen was dealt a big blow with Jonathan Broxton out of action for the foreseeable future and Wolf lost the last time he faced Houston.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robert Ferringo

Take Colorado over San Diego
I think that the Padres are going to spend most of the second half of the year the same way they spent the first half: losing. Colorado has won seven of the last 10 meetings and Aaron Cook is a sweet 10-4 against the Dads the last 14 times he has faced them. San Diego is 8-21 while Colorado is 27-9. That kind of sums up the direct these two are headed. Colorado is 13-4 on the road and they are 11-1 against a right-handed starter. The Rockies stay hot and pick up a solid win over sinking San Diego.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday:
Seattle Mariners + 190

Big Time
Free Selection
PHILLIES / MARLINS OVER 9

Huddle Up Sports
Free Selection
NY Mets/Atlanta over 9

Totals4U
Thursday's free selection:
NY Mets/Atlanta under 9

Mike Wynn
Bonus Play:
Dodgers w/Wolf -140 Over Houston

Razor Sharp
FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY:
LA DODGERS (Wolf) -115 over Houston

#1 Sports
Thursday's free selection:
Atlanta Braves - 160

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Seems like Seattle is being ridden hard today.

Would be very nice if Seattle came in today at +185. Either way, I wouldn't mind taking Seatlle at +1/1/2 for -105. Almost even money and you get a run and one half.

 

[bobano]

Harry's Picks
col ml
oak ml

I've often recv'd e-mails from this service telling me how strong Harry's Picks have been. How have they been going for u Nad-Man? His site shows that he is 30-10 in his L40 picks. If that's true, that is damn good.

 

[ecrazul1977]

Thanks for your post cork, are very useful!!!

 

[saminsocal]

Seems like Seattle is being ridden hard today.

Would be very nice if Seattle came in today at +185. Either way, I wouldn't mind taking Seatlle at +1/1/2 for -105. Almost even money and you get a run and one half.

i have four categories that i have created to determine what games i play and how strongly i like the picks i make. SEA rates high in two of the four and positive in the other two. i would not have been surprised to see SEA +110 or +120. i have NO idea why the line is so high, but that usually means i'm missing something. i went straight on the play and didn't grab the extra run.

 

[Ironhorse]

Cork pm me for split on Matt Rivers has a big play tonight Chicago-Washington game

 

[Ironhorse]

Cork I did not get your earlier post I will pick up and see if Tan wants to split

 

[goldencontender]

Thursday GC comp play

On Thursday the Bonus Play is on the La.Dodgers.Game 910 at 10:10 eastern.The Dodgers fit a nice little system here tonight as we play on certain homers if the total in the game is 8 or less and our homer is coming off a road dog win where they scored 5 or more runs,and tonights opponent scored 5 or more runs at home in their last game.These homers have cashed all 8 times since 2004.The comp plays have gone 10-1 over the last 11.On the Thursdays card I have 2 big totals system plays.One from a totals system that averages 14 runs per game, the other with a 100% subset of a 28-8 system.Their both super strong moves coming out of the break as we look to continue the torrid run with late phone plays cashing the last ten.For the Bonus Play Lets take the Dodgers to move to 13-2 as a home favorite in this range. bol GC-

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sebastian-OVER Colorado
Winner Line-Florida and Colorado
Las Vegas Connection-OVER Florida
OTM-UNDER Dodgers
Pinnacle-Colorado

 

[tannguyen94]

Matt Rivers
100,000* GAME OF THE DAY! Your winner here is on the Cubs.

I do like the lefty John Lannan and have backed him when getting some quality coin back. I also o believe that the Nats are better than their record and will start winning some games in the near future. But with that said this njumber is still a bit ridiculous!?!?!?

The Cubs have not been very good as they sit around the .500 mark but they also are going to play better ball as Aramis Ramirez gets fully back in the mix and starts feeling healthier. This team was expected to be in the 90's in terms of wins but have not played nearly the ball that was expected with the injuries playing somewhat of a part.

Chicago has a bunch of competent righty bats with Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Theriot and others and being up against a Southpaw can be nothing but good today. Even if Lannan pitches well that Washington bullpen has been fairly terrible this season and could easily give up that four spot in an 8th or 9th inning.

Rich Harden has not been the Rich Harden we have known as the righty has been terrible at times. But you still have to respect that upside which he still shows every few starts and has to potential for that side of him to come out today.

When comparing this price of the Cubs at around a pick here in Washington to the random NBA game laying the 100 either way you clearly see the better deal of the two and I'm taking advantage of it!




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND MYSELF------GL GUYS

THANKS, I was late.

 

[LeifSheppard]

THANKS, I was late.

My girlfriend told me that once and now I have a son

 

[SOUTHPHILLYBUDDA6]

docs sports

sea +180 cle
laa/oak under 9



paid (as a result of the goty loss) and confirmed by me

y do u all keep chasing this guy....his goy's in the last 20 are i think 1-19.......

 

[fraser411]

60W-38L this year,
7W-4L this month,


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Hammer</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Thursday, July 16, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Last year we were 80-43 for PLUS $3490 in Baseball and that is playing just $100 per game, my Dime Players made over $34,900 in Baseball Last Year! Get my PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MONEY LINE WINNER for just $25 and pay only after you win! 61-37 RUN!
</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>7/16/2009</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB MONEY LINE WINNER
San Diego w/Gaudin +115 10:05 EST
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Cardiff,

Would you like to trade some YWN picks with me?