Thursday 07/09/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Big Al McMordie

Bonus Play

It's the rubber game of this three-game set in New York, and Los Angeles lefty Randy Wolf gives the Dodgers the edge when they take on the Mets under the Citi Field lights.
Our Thursday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road at Citi Field over the New York Mets.

Tough-luck starter of the first half of the season? It could very well go to Dodgers veteran lefthander Randy Wolf who despite having 11 quality starts so far, has only three wins to show for them. And it's not like the Dodgers haven't been winning games when he pitches as Los Angeles has won 11 of Wolf's 18 starts.

Oddly, it's Mets veteran righthanded starter Livan Hernandez who has the winning record (at 5-4) in tonight's match-up although the 14-year MLB veteran is having his own tough-luck run lately having lost his last three starts.

Everything else besides the winning record would seem to favor Wolf and the Dodgers in this game, including the fact that Wolf has absolutely owned the Mets throughout his career thanks to his many seasons (eight to be exact) with the Philadelphia Phillies. In fact Wolf owns an 11-5 lifetime mark against New York, including a 6-1 record against them on the road, and he went 2-0 against them last season.

While the Mets offense continues to struggle with the losses of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado, the Dodgers have gotten a boost to their lineup from the return of outfielder Manny Ramirez. Take the Dodgers.

Free Pick: Dodgers -146

 

[Yanks]

Alex Smart

Bonus Play

Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)

The LA Dodgers starting pitcher Randy Wolf(3-3, 3.49 ERA) has faired very well against the NY Mets in his career garnering a lifetime 11-5 record that includes a 6-1 record at Shea Stadium. I expect for the veteran southpaw to have another quality performance in this spot vs a short handed Mets side that continue to struggle to win games. With the Mets sending out the inconsistent Livan Hernandez, who is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA in his last three starts to the hill the Dodgers look very much to be strong bets to bring us home the dough in this spot. It must be noted that Dodgers have proved to be a good bounce back team, and are 21-9 L/30 after a negative outing, which happened last night in a 5-4 loss.

Play on the LA Dodgers

 

[Yanks]

Tommy Gill

Bonus Play

Washington Nationals @ Houston Astros o8.5 (-120)


Houston and Washington Over 8.5 –120 for 2 units

Looking at this matchup we are getting two good pitchers in Lannan (6-5 3.45 ERA) vs. Ortiz (3-4 4.11 ERA). I believe that this line is to short even though both pitchers are 18-7 to the under this season. The Over is 4-1 last 5 between the two teams and 9-4-1 to the Over in Houston last 14 games played their. Lannan is by far the best pitcher Washington has on their roster he has been averaged 3 ER in 7 innings pitched so far this year while Ortiz has been inconsistent for Houston. In Ortiz last game he gave up 8 runs in 5.2 innings pitched to the Giants in SF. In Lannan 3 starts career vs. Houston all 3 games have gone Over the posted total with this year pitching 6 innings giving up 4 runs in a rare win for Washington 9-4. Houston games at home this year are only averaging 8 runs a game and Washington is averaging 10 runs a game on the road due to their terrible bullpen and bad defense. This is a rare spot for me to back an over with Houston but I have a good feeling that this game is going to go Over the 8.5 today.

 

[Yanks]

Jimmy The Moose

Bonus Play

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox Jul 9 2009 2:05PM

Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Reason: The Indians are 5-17 in their last 22 overall. Cleveland has lost 20 of 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 1-7 in their last 8 as a dog. The Indians have lost their last 4 on the road. Chicago has won 9 of their last 11. They are 4-0 in their last 4 at home. In their last 8 following a win they are 7-1. The White Sox have won 8 of their last 10 divisional games. The Indians have lost 11 of their last 15 visits to Chicago. The White Sox are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the Chicago White Sox -.

 

[Yanks]

Matt Fargo

Bonus Play

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins Jul 9 2009 1:10PM

Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Reason: The Twins look to salvage a game in this series after dropping the first two against the Yankees. I?ve said it numerous times and it remains the case that New York is overvalued on an almost nightly basis and that is certainly the case here. As far as overall records, the Yankees are 7.5 games better than the Twins but when it comes to home and road records, the Twins are still a game better. Minnesota is 26-18 at home this season which is the seventh best home record in all of baseball and they catch another underdog price at the dome this afternoon. Alfredo Aceves will be making his first start this season after tossing 40 innings of relief for the Yankees. He has made only four career starts, all of them down the stretch last season and while the numbers were good overall, leaving the bullpen is a big hit for the Yankees. Francisco Liriano had a miserable start to the season but he is coming back into his old form. Through May, he had a 6.60 ERA covering 11 start but since then he has posted a 3.79 ERA in six outings and that includes four quality performances as well as five outings of allowing three runs or fewer. One of his best early season starts prior to this successful run came against the Yankees in New York where he allowed one run in six innings. Liriano has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 15.1 career innings in the Metrodome. The Twins are 4-0 in Liriano?s last four starts as an underdog.

3* Minnesota Twins

 

[Yanks]

Tom Freese

Bonus Play

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Jul 9 2009 10:15PM

Prediction: under

Reason: San Diego Josh Geer has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Padres are 15-4-1 UNDER their last 20 games and they are 6-2 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games with the Giants. San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has allowed 1 run total in his last 3 starts covering 25 innings of work. San Francisco 25-12-4 UNDER their last 41 games vs. losing teams. The Giants are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 Thursday games and they are 15-6-3 UNDER vs. NL West teams.

PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Lincecum vs. Geer)

 

[Yanks]

Tony Mathews

Bonus Play

Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Indians (+110)

 

[Yanks]

Tony George

Free Pick COL /ATL Under 9

Thursday MLB Bonus Play from Tony George Sports

UNDER 9 Rockies and Braves

Some Good trends here heading into tonight?s game. Colorado has cooled off somewhat, but still tough at home and Atlanta just took 2 out of 3 from the Cubs at Wrigley. The under trends here have Colorado going Under 8 out of the last 10 games, and overall combined these two teams have went Under at a combined rate of 16 out of their last 20 games. Solid bullpens with ERA?s at 4 or Under and two solid starting pitchers tonight with a combined record of 12-3, and Tommy Hanson for Atlanta has a 3-0 record his last 3 with an ERA of 0.93 and has allowed only 9 hits in 18 innings of work in those last 3.

Play the UNDER for a free selection

 

[Yanks]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Free Pick SEA / TEX Over

Member Play: Looking to remain on top of the division, the Rangers hope to ride that momentum into Safeco Field and stay perfect against the Seattle Mariners this season when they face All-Star Felix Hernandez to open a four-game series Thursday night. Winners of seven of their last eight, the Rangers are 5-0 against the Mariners this season. Texas, which swept a two-game set at Safeco in May, is batting .304 while outscoring Seattle 29-15 in 2009. Though Hernandez has lost his last five decisions versus the Rangers and is 4-9 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 starts against them, the AL pitcher of the month for June allowed four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 3-2 loss at Texas on May 14. That being said, I look for Hernandez to falter slightly today and believe we're getting great value on the over. It's interesting to note that Seattle has seen the total go over the posted number in both games they've played as a home favorite of -175 to -200!

Play on the OVER!

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional

COMP.

Thursday

Wednesday Recap - Day Off

Today's Play(s) - Today we do have a play and I feel like
it represents a real strong value. There are some solid
pitchers going but the price is way too high. It's like last
time Sabathia pitched and people were emailing me asking
why I didn't like him. He's good....but he's back in the
A.L. so you can't judge him on how he did with Milwaukee
but you have to really go back to his Cleveland numbers but
most important with these top pitchers is that sometimes
you just have to pass because of the price. Lincecum is one
of my favorite pitchers to play but he's not unbeatable and
at -300....forget it. I just wanted to mention to be careful
with those top fav's at big prices especially around the
all star break.

Today I'm looking to the Florida / Arizona match-up for
what I think is a real nice value. There is no mystery that
I LOVE to fade Y. Petit. Problem is that his manager is
sharp and usually gets him now after only 4 innings because
he's already given up 3,4, or 5 runs. Last time in
Colorado that move ended up costing us the game as
he pulled him early enough to keep them in it. Well
since Arizona is almost always trailing early we're only
going to FADE them early and take Florida -115 for the
first 5 innings.

MLB - Florida Marlins 1H -115[LISTED] Miller / Petit - 575.00 / 500.00

Record (11-3) + $3200

 

[Yanks]

Jeff Benton

Complimentary Selection

I scored another free-play winner Wednesday as the DBacks covered the run line against the Padres. I’ve now hit three of four freebies since returning from vacation, and I’ll extend that run Thursday by taking the big underdog money with the Rangers in Seattle.


I know the Mariners are going with ace Felix Hernandez tonight, and the All-Star has been nothing short of spectacular virtually the entire season, especially lately with eight straight quality starts, seven of which Seattle has won.


However, the Rangers have absolutely had King Felix’s number over the last two years. Since Opening Day 2008 when he pitched a gem against Texas at home only to get a no-decision in a 5-4 Mariners loss, Hernandez has faced the Rangers eight times. Seattle’s record in those eight games? 1-7, with all seven defeats coming as a favorite. That includes a 6-5 home loss on May 4 this year (with Hernandez giving up all six runs on 10 hits in six innings) and a 3-2 loss in Texas 10 days later (with Hernandez pitching four-hit ball over seven scoreless innings, only to come up empty).


The last four times the Rangers have seen Hernandez in Seattle, they’re 4-0, with the big right-hander giving up 16 runs (all earned) in the last three of those games covering 15 1/3 innings. Clearly, as good as Hernandez is and as dominant as he can be, Texas’ potent lineup isn’t all intimidated by him.


Two more reasons to like the Rangers in this spot: They’ve won all five games against the Mariners this season, and young right-hander Tommy Hunter has been pretty impressive in his first three starts this season (1-1, 3.18 ERA), and each of those games came in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark.


Finally, Texas is 7-1 in its last eight games – including winning the last two nights at the Angels – while King Felix has been a whole lot better on the road this year (5-1, 1.94 ERA) than at home (3-2, 3.64 ERA). Big pup barks loudly in this one, folks. Back the first-place Rangers.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

3♦ TEXAS

 

[Yanks]

Scott Delaney

Today's Complimentary Selection

I am on a 28-18-1 run with complimentary releases and today we're playing the Rays in their AL East clash with Toronto.


I’m usually inclined to take Roy Halladay in games he’s pitching in, but in this matinee in Tampa Bay, I am playing the home underdog. After all, in his two starts since coming off the disabled list, the All-Star ace is 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA. He’s allowed seven runs on 14 hits, not to mention an abnormal five walks and four home runs over 13 innings.


He comes in after being roughed up by the Yankees, who tagged him for five runs on nine hits. He surrendered three home runs in a game for the first time since last September and issued three walks for the first time since last April.


In Halladay’s last two visits to Tampa, he’s given up a combined seven earned runs over 12 innings. And after the Rays’ 10-9 walk-off win last night, I think we’re going to see a very confident lineup attack Toronto’s ace right-hander.


The Rays are on an 11-5 run and are looking to sweep this series with a win today, which will also provide David Price with motivation on the hill tonight. The young southpaw will be geared up to avenge his worst start of the season, as the Rangers chased him after 1-1/3 innings last week.


Nevertheless, there’s something intriguing about this rookie left-hander, as he understands how his fastball command dictates how he will fare. So even though he struggled to locate his heater last Saturday night against an explosive Texas lineup, I have a feeling he’ll be right back on target on his own mound, where he is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in five career appearances.

Take the Rays.

1♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS (WITH Price and Halladay)

 

[Yanks]

Trace Adams

THURSDAY'S COMP PLAY

Houston Astros

 

[Yanks]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Play

For Thursday take the Braves at Coors.

How can anybody go against this wonderkid in Tommy Hanson right now? The young righty appears to be as good as advertised and after dominating in each of his last five starts he is more than capable of holding down the Rockies today, even in the thin air of the Mile High City.


Atlanta has not exactly been an overachieving club this season and Chipper Jones is banged up which is never great. Plus the Rockies have been playing great ball over the past month plus and have a former All-Star in Aaron Cook on the bump.


But with the above paragraph I just cannot help but ride Hanson. The youngster had that 26 inning scorepess streak before finally allowing an Adam Dunn Home-Run in his last start in the seventh inning. That was the only run allowed as Hanson left the game with a 3-1 lead that was lost by Mike Gonzalez and the rest of the Brave bullpen.


If you take out his first career start where he allowed six earned runs against the Brewers then you see a combined three runs in his last five starts. Are you kidding me with that? Plus he has faced quality lineups like the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles.


I'm just rolling with a red hot good thing here, period!

1♦ (out of 5) Braves

 

[Yanks]

Dominic Fazzini

Complimentary Selection

I’m still trying to figure out how the Mets beat the Dodgers on Wednesday, but that’s not stopping me from going with Los Angeles again today.

Left-hander Randy Wolf (3-3, 3.49 ERA) has owned the Mets in his career, going 11-5 in his career, including 6-1 at Shea Stadium. He pitched against New York once this year, allowing two runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings on May 18.

While Wolf hasn’t earned a victory in his last seven starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA in nine road outings this year. Wolf has received 12 no-decisions this season, but he is pitching well enough to help Los Angeles go 11-7 in his 18 outings.

Mets right-hander Livan Hernandez (5-4, 4.56) has lost his last three decisions, and allowed seven runs on 10 hits in three innings Friday at Philadelphia.

Manny Ramirez has punished Hernandez, going 5-for-8 with a home run and five RBIs. I expect more of the same tonight. Take the Dodgers.

(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

3♦ L.A. DODGERS

 

[Yanks]

JR O'Donnell

Bonus Play

Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies

Atlanta Braves +118

Looking at Tonight's battle......
Tommy Gunn Hanson brings a perfect resume the last 4 outings, The public will line up on the Rock's and the Under .
We will rock the sport's world with the Bravos & the Over

 

[Yanks]

Vegas Experts

Bonus Play

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Kansas City Royals starter Luke Hochevar has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and three of his four road starts this season have stayed UNDER the total. The Royals are scoring just 3.3 runs per game on the road this season and have gone UNDER in 24 of 36 road games. Boston has gone UNDER in 12 of 15 games as a favorite of $1.50 or more. Go with the UNDER

Play on: UNDER

 

[Yanks]

Karl Garrett

Bonus Play

Texas +160 at SEATTLE

G-Man on a 7-3 Bonus Play run the last 10 days.

American League action tonight, and why not take a chance with the underdog Rangers at this price?

Texas just took 2 out of 3 in Anaheim to take back first place in the AL West, and they have now won 7 of their last 8 overall.

I know Felix Hernandez is a tough hombre, but he is 0-3 his last 5 starts against the Rangers, and his team has yet to win a game in 5 season series meetings this year with Texas.

Tommy Hunter is coming off his first win, as he was able to hold the Rays to just 1 run in 5 decent innings of work against them his last time out.

Texas is 7-4 at Safeco since last season, and 16-8 overall since last year against their division rival.

G-Man has to grab the plus-money, and the Rangers tonight.

2? TEXAS

 

[Yanks]

Nelly

Bonus Play

New York - over Minnesota

Alfredo Aceves has not made many starts in his career but his numbers in every situation have been excellent. Aceves has a 2.02 ERA as a reliever this season and last year as mainly a starter he had a 2.40 ERA. He owns 34 strikeouts and just seven walks in 40 innings this season for New York and he should have success against the Minnesota lineup that has cooled off considerably. The Twins are batting just .245 over the last ten games and Minnesota has a big mental disadvantage as they have struggled mightily against the Yankees. Minnesota led in all four games in New York earlier this season but lost everyone one of them and also suffered a blowout loss in the opener of this home series. Minnesota has scored over five runs just twice in the last ten games while New York has scored at least four runs in twelve consecutive games despite playing mainly on the road in one of the toughest parts of the schedule. New York is batting .293 in the last ten games and the Yankees should have success in this match-up. Francisco Liriano has had very limited success this season and yet is still valued based on what he accomplished in past years.

 

[Yanks]

Yankee Capper

COMP.

Minnesota Twins RL
Padres/Giants Over 7
Cincinnati Reds +135