Jeff Benton
Detroit -105 at MINNESOTA
Still on a 27-18 roll with my Bonus Plays after Wednesday’s selection on the Padres-Cubs UNDER the total ended up as a no-play because the game was cut short by rain. For Thursday, we’ll stay on the diamond and play the Tigers in early action at Minnesota.
No doubt Detroit will take the field today still reeling from last night’s 14-10, 13-inning loss to the Twins, who won it with a walk-off grand slam. But as the old baseball adage goes, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and I’m putting my money on Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander in this one.
Verlander has been nothing short of magnificent in his last three trips to the mound, going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, including a complete-game shutout in Cleveland on Friday. During his last three starts, Verlander has surrendered a total of one run, 11 hits – including two in each of his last two outings – and five walks while striking out 31 in 23 innings! Most importantly for the Tigers, who used five relievers to cover the final eight innings in Wednesday’s all-nighter, Verlander has been eating innings, preceding Friday’s complete game with a pair of seven-inning efforts.
By contrast, the Twins – who sent six relievers to the mound for a total of 7 2/3 innings last night – are desperate for a long outing from starter Scott Baker. Problem is, Baker has lasted more than six innings just once all season (in Friday’s 11-0 win against Seattle when he went seven scoreless frames). Prior to that, Baker had given up 21 runs in 20 2/3 innings (9.15 ERA) in his first four starts, all of which Minnesota lost (and lost badly). Baker is also 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two day games this season (Verlander is 1-0 with a 1.50 in two day starts).
Bottom line: After last night’s marathon, this game is going to come down to which starting pitcher lasts longer, and with the way Verlander is going right now, he and the Tigers are a no-brainer, especially at this pick-em price.
4? DETROIT
Detroit -105 at MINNESOTA
Still on a 27-18 roll with my Bonus Plays after Wednesday’s selection on the Padres-Cubs UNDER the total ended up as a no-play because the game was cut short by rain. For Thursday, we’ll stay on the diamond and play the Tigers in early action at Minnesota.
No doubt Detroit will take the field today still reeling from last night’s 14-10, 13-inning loss to the Twins, who won it with a walk-off grand slam. But as the old baseball adage goes, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher, and I’m putting my money on Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander in this one.
Verlander has been nothing short of magnificent in his last three trips to the mound, going 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, including a complete-game shutout in Cleveland on Friday. During his last three starts, Verlander has surrendered a total of one run, 11 hits – including two in each of his last two outings – and five walks while striking out 31 in 23 innings! Most importantly for the Tigers, who used five relievers to cover the final eight innings in Wednesday’s all-nighter, Verlander has been eating innings, preceding Friday’s complete game with a pair of seven-inning efforts.
By contrast, the Twins – who sent six relievers to the mound for a total of 7 2/3 innings last night – are desperate for a long outing from starter Scott Baker. Problem is, Baker has lasted more than six innings just once all season (in Friday’s 11-0 win against Seattle when he went seven scoreless frames). Prior to that, Baker had given up 21 runs in 20 2/3 innings (9.15 ERA) in his first four starts, all of which Minnesota lost (and lost badly). Baker is also 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in two day games this season (Verlander is 1-0 with a 1.50 in two day starts).
Bottom line: After last night’s marathon, this game is going to come down to which starting pitcher lasts longer, and with the way Verlander is going right now, he and the Tigers are a no-brainer, especially at this pick-em price.
4? DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers -8 at HOUSTON
FREE winner for you on the hardwood tonight as we go ahead and lay the chalk with the Lakers as they visit Houston, ready to close out the Rockets.
Now that was what we expected to see from the Rockets when they lost center Yao Ming. Tuesday, Houston looked helpless and lost in their 40-point loss in Los Angeles on Tuesday and while it might be closer tonight, it isn't going to get to single digits. Play the Lakers in this one.
We're not sure what got into the Rockets in Game 4 when they played perfect basketball in routing the Lakers without Yao on the court. But whatever it was, it isn't coming back tonight. Los Angeles held Houston to 32.6 percent shooting on Tuesday and forced 18 turnovers. Plus the Rockets only had three players in double-digits, led by 14 from Aaron Brooks.
The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Houston and they are 7-2 ATS in the nine games against the Rockets this season. The chalk is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
You know Kobe and Co. saw the Nuggets finish off the Mavs on Wednesday night and the crowd was already chanting "Beat L.A." Well, when the Lakers win this one by 20, it'll be set for a Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference Final.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
L.A. Lakers -8 at HOUSTON
FREE winner for you on the hardwood tonight as we go ahead and lay the chalk with the Lakers as they visit Houston, ready to close out the Rockets.
Now that was what we expected to see from the Rockets when they lost center Yao Ming. Tuesday, Houston looked helpless and lost in their 40-point loss in Los Angeles on Tuesday and while it might be closer tonight, it isn't going to get to single digits. Play the Lakers in this one.
We're not sure what got into the Rockets in Game 4 when they played perfect basketball in routing the Lakers without Yao on the court. But whatever it was, it isn't coming back tonight. Los Angeles held Houston to 32.6 percent shooting on Tuesday and forced 18 turnovers. Plus the Rockets only had three players in double-digits, led by 14 from Aaron Brooks.
The Lakers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to Houston and they are 7-2 ATS in the nine games against the Rockets this season. The chalk is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
You know Kobe and Co. saw the Nuggets finish off the Mavs on Wednesday night and the crowd was already chanting "Beat L.A." Well, when the Lakers win this one by 20, it'll be set for a Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference Final.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Matt Rivers
For Thursday take a red hot Justin Verlander and the Tigers once again.
The Detroit starter has been quite an enigma. Two seasons ago Verlander was an up and coming stud that dazzled start after start all the way into a great playoff run. Then all of a sudden the tall righty lost it a bit and was not nearly the same guy. But then three starts ago it appears that the real Justin Verlander is back and better than ever.
For the season Verlander is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA but in the last three starts the guy has been ridiculous at 3-0 with a .39 ERA and those starts were against the Indians twice as well as the Yankess, not exactly poor offenses at all. Verlander has a new release and it has worked out very well thus far helping the flamethrower hit 98 mph on the gun once again late in games.
I am not 100% convinced that Verlander is all the way back but until we see signs of anything else then I will roll with him here in a controlled environment which the Metrodome is.
Scott Baker is on the bump opposing Verlander and is a solid righty himself. But things have been far from smooth so far on the young season, save that great last outing and Baker has been lit up for a ton of Home Runs and has been pretty shoddy overall.
Playing on turf is not easy for the hard hitting Tee-Grays but with Cabrera, Ordonez and Granderson among a few others and a red hot Verlander I'll take my chances with today's visitors in this spot.
For Thursday take a red hot Justin Verlander and the Tigers once again.
The Detroit starter has been quite an enigma. Two seasons ago Verlander was an up and coming stud that dazzled start after start all the way into a great playoff run. Then all of a sudden the tall righty lost it a bit and was not nearly the same guy. But then three starts ago it appears that the real Justin Verlander is back and better than ever.
For the season Verlander is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA but in the last three starts the guy has been ridiculous at 3-0 with a .39 ERA and those starts were against the Indians twice as well as the Yankess, not exactly poor offenses at all. Verlander has a new release and it has worked out very well thus far helping the flamethrower hit 98 mph on the gun once again late in games.
I am not 100% convinced that Verlander is all the way back but until we see signs of anything else then I will roll with him here in a controlled environment which the Metrodome is.
Scott Baker is on the bump opposing Verlander and is a solid righty himself. But things have been far from smooth so far on the young season, save that great last outing and Baker has been lit up for a ton of Home Runs and has been pretty shoddy overall.
Playing on turf is not easy for the hard hitting Tee-Grays but with Cabrera, Ordonez and Granderson among a few others and a red hot Verlander I'll take my chances with today's visitors in this spot.
Matt Fargo
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays still possess the best record in the American League and that includes a 12-5 record at home. Despite this, they are still getting a high price as underdogs at home against the Yankees which is no surprise for a few reasons. I mentioned this yesterday and the fact remains New York is overpriced almost every time it takes the field. The Yankees won last night thanks to one strong inning and a solid performance from Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was struggling so it was a big bounce back effort from him and tonight, the reasoning will be the opposite. C.C. Sabathia is coming off his best performance since joining the Yankees and while many believe this is the start of a long successful run, I am just the opposite of that theory. Sabathia has not pitched well this season with the exception of two strong outings. Those came against the Orioles and Royals and in both of those games, he was given big leads early. His other two road starts were poor performances and I see a repeat of that. The Blue Jays bats were cooled last night but they are hitting .320 against left-handed pitching even after the struggles against Pettitte and that is tied for second best in baseball. They are tied with the Yankees who also face a lefty tonight in Brian Tallet who has been a great addition to the starting rotation. He has put together back-to-back quality outings and with the exception of one bad performance against the Royals, his other four starts have been solid. He has a 2.51 ERA at home and in his career against the Yankees, he has a 2.86 ERA in 20 appearances. The Yankees are just 17-36 in their last 53 road games against left-handed starters. Toronto is 22-8 in its last 30 games following a loss and the bats tend to pick things up after a bad game as the Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays still possess the best record in the American League and that includes a 12-5 record at home. Despite this, they are still getting a high price as underdogs at home against the Yankees which is no surprise for a few reasons. I mentioned this yesterday and the fact remains New York is overpriced almost every time it takes the field. The Yankees won last night thanks to one strong inning and a solid performance from Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was struggling so it was a big bounce back effort from him and tonight, the reasoning will be the opposite. C.C. Sabathia is coming off his best performance since joining the Yankees and while many believe this is the start of a long successful run, I am just the opposite of that theory. Sabathia has not pitched well this season with the exception of two strong outings. Those came against the Orioles and Royals and in both of those games, he was given big leads early. His other two road starts were poor performances and I see a repeat of that. The Blue Jays bats were cooled last night but they are hitting .320 against left-handed pitching even after the struggles against Pettitte and that is tied for second best in baseball. They are tied with the Yankees who also face a lefty tonight in Brian Tallet who has been a great addition to the starting rotation. He has put together back-to-back quality outings and with the exception of one bad performance against the Royals, his other four starts have been solid. He has a 2.51 ERA at home and in his career against the Yankees, he has a 2.86 ERA in 20 appearances. The Yankees are just 17-36 in their last 53 road games against left-handed starters. Toronto is 22-8 in its last 30 games following a loss and the bats tend to pick things up after a bad game as the Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game. 3* Toronto Blue Jays
Scott Spreitzer
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
I'm playing the Over between the Red Sox and Angels on Thursday. Ervin Santana is making his first start of the season against a team he has truly struggled against. The Angel righty has been popped for a 5.73 ERA in four starts in his career against Boston. He's also toeing the rubber under the sun, and that's when he's been at his worst. Santana owns a hefty 5.42 ERA in 35 daytime appearances in his career, including 34 starts. His counterpart today is Brad Penny. His best days are definitely behind him. Penny has been lit-up away from home, owns a 6.90 ERA on the season, and has been knocked around for an ERA of almost 5 in his six lifetime starts against the Halos. Last night's game flew over the total on the strength of the Angel bats, for the most part.
Play on: Over
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
I'm playing the Over between the Red Sox and Angels on Thursday. Ervin Santana is making his first start of the season against a team he has truly struggled against. The Angel righty has been popped for a 5.73 ERA in four starts in his career against Boston. He's also toeing the rubber under the sun, and that's when he's been at his worst. Santana owns a hefty 5.42 ERA in 35 daytime appearances in his career, including 34 starts. His counterpart today is Brad Penny. His best days are definitely behind him. Penny has been lit-up away from home, owns a 6.90 ERA on the season, and has been knocked around for an ERA of almost 5 in his six lifetime starts against the Halos. Last night's game flew over the total on the strength of the Angel bats, for the most part.
Play on: Over
LT Profits
Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers has been almost unhittable lately, and even Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins has been pitching better, so do not look for much scoring in the Metrodome early this afternoon.
Verlander has allowed a grand total of one run in his last three starts, allowing only 11 hits with 31 strikeouts against five walks in 23 innings. That translates to a microscopic 0.39 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with a better than six to one strikeout/walk ratio. Furthermore, he had a Complete Game in his last start and tossed seven innings in each of the prior two starts, so it is a good bet that the shaky Detroit bullpen will not see much if any action today.
Now Baker was off to a slow start this season, but he comes in off of his best start of the year as he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only five hits vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he does have an excellent 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Baker has also allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight career starts vs. the Tigers, with four of those Quality Starts coming last season.
When you add in the natural lethargy that comes with these 12:10 local starts following a night came, this looks like a rather safe Under.
Pick: Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers has been almost unhittable lately, and even Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins has been pitching better, so do not look for much scoring in the Metrodome early this afternoon.
Verlander has allowed a grand total of one run in his last three starts, allowing only 11 hits with 31 strikeouts against five walks in 23 innings. That translates to a microscopic 0.39 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with a better than six to one strikeout/walk ratio. Furthermore, he had a Complete Game in his last start and tossed seven innings in each of the prior two starts, so it is a good bet that the shaky Detroit bullpen will not see much if any action today.
Now Baker was off to a slow start this season, but he comes in off of his best start of the year as he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only five hits vs. the Seattle Mariners, and he does have an excellent 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Baker has also allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight career starts vs. the Tigers, with four of those Quality Starts coming last season.
When you add in the natural lethargy that comes with these 12:10 local starts following a night came, this looks like a rather safe Under.
Pick: Tigers / Twins Under 8.5
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Angels -130
Penny is 3-1, but he has not pitched well, as his 6.90 ERA indicates. Ervin Santana makes his season debut for the Halos and I expect his team to play very well behind him in the field and at the plate as it has impatiently been waiting for him to return to health. The Red Sox are just 5-12 in the last 17 meetings in this series. The Angels have won 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10, and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Plus, the Angels are 20-7 in their last 27 Thursday games and 37-16 in their last 53 game 3's of a series. Take the Halos.
1 Unit on LA Angels -130
Penny is 3-1, but he has not pitched well, as his 6.90 ERA indicates. Ervin Santana makes his season debut for the Halos and I expect his team to play very well behind him in the field and at the plate as it has impatiently been waiting for him to return to health. The Red Sox are just 5-12 in the last 17 meetings in this series. The Angels have won 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10, and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Plus, the Angels are 20-7 in their last 27 Thursday games and 37-16 in their last 53 game 3's of a series. Take the Halos.
Karl Garrett
NY Mets -135 at SAN FRANCISCO
For Thursday night, take the Mets as they open the long weekend in the Bay Area.
New York just dropped 2 of 3 at home to the Braves, but the Metropolitans have still won 8 of their last 10 overall, and Mets' hurler John Maine has been on top of his game after a shaky start.
Maine has reeled off 3 straight winning starts, and has allowed just 4 runs in his 18 innings of work in those starts.
His counterpart Jonathan Sanchez has dropped his last 2 starts, getting rocked for 9 runs in just 9 innings of work.
The Mets went 5-1 in the season series last year, and are now 9-3 overall the last 12 meetings with the Giants.
Take New York!
5♦ NY METS
NY Mets -135 at SAN FRANCISCO
For Thursday night, take the Mets as they open the long weekend in the Bay Area.
New York just dropped 2 of 3 at home to the Braves, but the Metropolitans have still won 8 of their last 10 overall, and Mets' hurler John Maine has been on top of his game after a shaky start.
Maine has reeled off 3 straight winning starts, and has allowed just 4 runs in his 18 innings of work in those starts.
His counterpart Jonathan Sanchez has dropped his last 2 starts, getting rocked for 9 runs in just 9 innings of work.
The Mets went 5-1 in the season series last year, and are now 9-3 overall the last 12 meetings with the Giants.
Take New York!
5♦ NY METS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Lakers at HOUSTON
Tonight in the NBA, we will play the UNDER in the Lakers-Rockets series.
The last 2 games in this best-of-seven set have played LOW, and we think tonight's will as well.
Houston's lone chance to keep this one close is to keep this game in the half-court, and with the game being played on their home floor, we think that the Rockets have a fighting chance to do that.
The Lakers are on a 9-3 UNDER run their last 12 road games, while the Rockets have played LOW in 7 of their last 9 overall.
Also, 5 of the last 7 series showdowns have stayed UNDER the posted price. This one will too.
Play on the UNDER in the Lakers-Rockets.
3♦ UNDER
Lakers at HOUSTON
Tonight in the NBA, we will play the UNDER in the Lakers-Rockets series.
The last 2 games in this best-of-seven set have played LOW, and we think tonight's will as well.
Houston's lone chance to keep this one close is to keep this game in the half-court, and with the game being played on their home floor, we think that the Rockets have a fighting chance to do that.
The Lakers are on a 9-3 UNDER run their last 12 road games, while the Rockets have played LOW in 7 of their last 9 overall.
Also, 5 of the last 7 series showdowns have stayed UNDER the posted price. This one will too.
Play on the UNDER in the Lakers-Rockets.
3♦ UNDER
Indiancowboy
COMP
Take the Under 197 between the LA Lakers @ the Houston Rockets
After a dismal performance in their last game, I expect the Rockets to do well today at home. As they stave off elimination, without giving away my paid purchase here, I do believe they will undoubtedly step it up on defense as win or lose this game, they definitely will be focused on the defensive end. After all, when you are a playoff team and you cought up 118 points, and considering you are a team that prides itself on defense as they held opponents to 5th in the league in field goal %, this team will look to stave off elimination not from the offensive end, but on the defensive side of the ball. The Under is 4-1 for the Rockets following an ATS Loss and the Under is 7-1 for the Rockets when they face a team with a winning road record at home - meaning when the Rockets face the cream of the crop of the league, it is usually a defensive battle. The Under is also 6-2 for the Lakers overall as well.
COMP
Take the Under 197 between the LA Lakers @ the Houston Rockets
After a dismal performance in their last game, I expect the Rockets to do well today at home. As they stave off elimination, without giving away my paid purchase here, I do believe they will undoubtedly step it up on defense as win or lose this game, they definitely will be focused on the defensive end. After all, when you are a playoff team and you cought up 118 points, and considering you are a team that prides itself on defense as they held opponents to 5th in the league in field goal %, this team will look to stave off elimination not from the offensive end, but on the defensive side of the ball. The Under is 4-1 for the Rockets following an ATS Loss and the Under is 7-1 for the Rockets when they face a team with a winning road record at home - meaning when the Rockets face the cream of the crop of the league, it is usually a defensive battle. The Under is also 6-2 for the Lakers overall as well.
STEPHEN NOVER
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Houston Astros
Quick question, who is Houston's pitching ace? No, it's not Roy Oswalt. At least not yet.Right now it's Wandy Rodriguez. The guy is pitching great and not just at home. Rodriguez brings a 1.80 ERA into the matchup and is worth riding at this low price against an opponent he has pitched extremely well against.Rodriguez is 2-0 lifetime versus Colorado with a 1.06 ERA. The Astros finally are swinging hot bats behind him with Lance Berkman back in the lineup.The Astros should do plenty of damage against overmatched Jason Hammel. He has a 5.40 ERA and is off his worst start.The Rockies also could be without their star shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Houston Astros @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Houston Astros
Quick question, who is Houston's pitching ace? No, it's not Roy Oswalt. At least not yet.Right now it's Wandy Rodriguez. The guy is pitching great and not just at home. Rodriguez brings a 1.80 ERA into the matchup and is worth riding at this low price against an opponent he has pitched extremely well against.Rodriguez is 2-0 lifetime versus Colorado with a 1.06 ERA. The Astros finally are swinging hot bats behind him with Lance Berkman back in the lineup.The Astros should do plenty of damage against overmatched Jason Hammel. He has a 5.40 ERA and is off his worst start.The Rockies also could be without their star shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Michael Alexander
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Play Houston +8.5
The Lakers' 118-78 win on Tuesday matched Houston's most lopsided playoff loss. The Rockets say don't count them out just yet, pointing to their propensity for bouncing back after embarrassing defeats.
Houston dropped 11 games by double-digits during the regular season and won the next game 10 times. The Rockets lost 95-84 to Dallas in their regular-season finale, then beat Portland 108-81 in their playoff opener.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Play Houston +8.5
The Lakers' 118-78 win on Tuesday matched Houston's most lopsided playoff loss. The Rockets say don't count them out just yet, pointing to their propensity for bouncing back after embarrassing defeats.
Houston dropped 11 games by double-digits during the regular season and won the next game 10 times. The Rockets lost 95-84 to Dallas in their regular-season finale, then beat Portland 108-81 in their playoff opener.
