hno: LOL!Handicapping is such a difficult thing to do. There are traps that you inevitibly fall into without knowing it, and then there's traps you percieve and over-exaggerate. I've spent 7 years attacking every angle in every way and the most valuable lesson I've learned is to go AGAINST the types of things people in this thread have been talking about. There are so many things that come into play in a competitive game that you cannot make a list long enough. But, all that does is dilute any true edge you may have in any single category. There are a few factors that should ELIMINATE your thought process of being able to pick winners - either SU or ATS.
1) You cannot pick any team SU or ATS because there is an inherent bias towards one team or the other. Not even necessarily a rooting interest, but your memory will favor one over the other as well and you just don't know how that remembered game will affect the current one - if it affects it at all.
2) You cannot pick any team with a significant ATS number (spread) because neither team is playing to blowout, or cover the game.
3) You cannot pick any team with a low ATS number (spread) because it virtually becomes a SU game.
So, what exactly do I suggest? To just bet over/unders. I'll wait for a response then I'll go into greater detail. Thanks.
1) You cannot pick any team SU or ATS because there is an inherent bias towards one team or the other. Not even necessarily a rooting interest, but your memory will favor one over the other as well and you just don't know how that remembered game will affect the current one - if it affects it at all.
2) You cannot pick any team with a significant ATS number (spread) because neither team is playing to blowout, or cover the game.
3) You cannot pick any team with a low ATS number (spread) because it virtually becomes a SU game.
So, what exactly do I suggest? To just bet over/unders. I'll wait for a response then I'll go into greater detail. Thanks.
Excellent post Gyno. These are the types of posts that are so EXTREMELY valuable to a good handicapping forum. The vast majority of posts are simply a handicapper's plays....but without much insight. This is all right if someone is looking for selections to follow blindly.....but learning HOW to make those picks should be the key. "Give a man a fish....feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish.....feed him for a lifetime".
I wish that there would be more of these specific threads that would help give people ideas on how others are handicapping. Every time I read one, I get ideas that help to shape, change, strenghten the methods that I use. Working to improve should be #1 on everyone's list.
GREAT INSIGHT! Thanks.
If anyone can add insight...methods.....handicapping books that have helped......handicapping articles that have shed light on new things...etc.. It would be GREATLY APPRECIATED.
I wish that there would be more of these specific threads that would help give people ideas on how others are handicapping. Every time I read one, I get ideas that help to shape, change, strenghten the methods that I use. Working to improve should be #1 on everyone's list.
GREAT INSIGHT! Thanks.
If anyone can add insight...methods.....handicapping books that have helped......handicapping articles that have shed light on new things...etc.. It would be GREATLY APPRECIATED.
Awesome. I'm glad this thread can be seen as useful. Now, I promised I'd go into more detail so I will.
Teams play at a pace which help determines the over/under. We all know this, but the problem is that the over/under becomes more unpredictable when taking into account the opposing team's style of play. Sometimes matchups are going to make sense and sometimes they won't. Some matchups constantly have the "over" resulting but it is still no strong indication that the over will result again. This is simply hindsight bias at its finest. I concentrate a small amount on matchups, but mostly on the most recent action for both teams. Trends are great until they take more of a broad view of things. Then they just become eye candy for the gullable handicapper.
Just something for some of you to chew on tonight. Although matchups would completely disagree with me...lets see how the UNDER 213 goes in Phx/Dal tonight.
Teams play at a pace which help determines the over/under. We all know this, but the problem is that the over/under becomes more unpredictable when taking into account the opposing team's style of play. Sometimes matchups are going to make sense and sometimes they won't. Some matchups constantly have the "over" resulting but it is still no strong indication that the over will result again. This is simply hindsight bias at its finest. I concentrate a small amount on matchups, but mostly on the most recent action for both teams. Trends are great until they take more of a broad view of things. Then they just become eye candy for the gullable handicapper.
Just something for some of you to chew on tonight. Although matchups would completely disagree with me...lets see how the UNDER 213 goes in Phx/Dal tonight.
elroy said:
I agree with you here elroy. In fact, I was looking at this o/u 213 myself and came up with some of the same conclusions as you. Specifically, a team that has the perception of going over (Suns). I researched Dallas and found that although they are a good team, they don't always necessarily score a lot. In fact, I think they are 14th in the league in scoring.
As far as looking at ATS trends, I prefer to look at expected amount of points for a total. Then I compare the line for the total and bet accordingly.
