Or if he flips Georgia. Which betting markets disagree but the NY Times Needle has Biden at 59 percent to win that state.
Once Biden holds Nevada he is at 244.
So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.
Less likely paths would involve his winning North Carolina, or other scenarios where he loses Wisconsin or Michigan but does well enough elsewhere.
The take from Nate Silver
Should be over, right? WRONG!
This is what happens when people elect Democrats as governors!
WISCONSIN
-2016: 22,748
-2020: 104,963 (77% reporting)
MICHIGAN
-2016: 10,704
-2020: 289,703 (61%)
PENNSYLVANIA
-2016: 44,292
-2020: 696,960 (66%)
"Hold" Michigan and Wisconsin Nate! :Carcajada:
Trump's current enormous margins in those states compared to 2016.