Anyone know what just happened? My book closed the betting on the Seattle game for about 5 minutes, then when it reopened the line went from Chicago -1 to Chicago +1.5. I take it somebody is not playing? They also bumped the O/U a .5 point as well. Speaking of the O/U, it's went from 143 to 148. Don't think I can touch that total now...
Yes and no. I suppose if you love the under, you would be happy to get it at 5 points better. Having said that, the fact that the total has moved 5 points in the OPPOSITE direction tells me there is some serious money on the over. That worries me. A move of 5 points is probably more than just "public money" IMO.
Not only that, but I doubt there is very much public money being bet on WNBA games anyway. I mean let's be honest, how many people even pay attention to this sport?? And when the public does bet on the WNBA, I doubt they're betting much money on the games, unlike the NFL or NBA. So I just don't think the public would be influencing lines in WNBA games.
So what you're saying Peter is that even though you liked the under to begin with, the fact that the number has moved 5 points tells you that some sharps may have placed some money on the over and that now has you concerned to the point where you're not so certain about the under anymore.
Also being that you maintain the public probably hasn't moved the total this much because the public really doesn't play the WNBA as much as the NBA, etc., therefore it's most likely some with serious money on the over that have moved the number 5points in the opposite direction.
Also being that you maintain the public probably hasn't moved the total this much because the public really doesn't play the WNBA as much as the NBA, etc., therefore it's most likely some with serious money on the over that have moved the number 5points in the opposite direction.
That's precisely what I'm saying Ivan. My guess would be that very few casual fans bet the WNBA, unlike higher profile sports like football, basketball, etc. Typically, the less interest there is in a sport, the less time Vegas will put into those lines. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying they just pick a random number. But they know that there will be far less action on these games, so they stand to lose less money. This is where "sharps" see an advantage, because they think they can beat the "softer" lines.
The same thing happens with, say, college football. The high profile games (Texas vs. Oklahoma, OSU vs. Michigan, etc.) will have tight lines because Vegas knows everyone and their mother will bet on those games. Because of this, a lot of sharps will try to focus on the lesser known divisions. Because the lines in those divisions get less attention, thus they think are "beatable." For instance, I have a buddy who does very well every year at college football, and the ONLY division he bets is the MAC.
One last thing I should clarify though, I don't cap or watch WNBA at all. I was just intrigued by this post since it's obvious Strategy is doing very well with his wagers. I was considering following the under bet, but when I saw a full 5 point movement the other way, it scared me off of it. It may very well still hit, I just don't like see that much money going the other way.
GL
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