I follow the MAAC very closely since I was a kid growing up near Marist and frequenting their gym.
They were +245 at home just a couple weeks ago and nearly pulled it off. Was a 1 point game very late although they somehow managed to blow the cover while they were at it. Short bus trip to Siena I just can't resist what feels like positive EV. On top of that Khallid Hart is playing in his last regular season game and is more than capable of taking the game over. Couple that with their young improving team and although I don't necessarily see them winning today, I give them about a 1 in 4 chance to do so. Hopefully they at least hang around and cover.
They're also using a different, and in my opinion, better rotation than when they met on 2/11.
For the record I have a long profitable record of picking spots to back Marist at home. I don't often back them on the road but this feels like a good spot to me.