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You obviously don't understand. Of course parlays pay more the more games are involved because the chance that they hit decreases with every additional game, but that's before all games started. Once you have already hit four of your five parlayed sides then the chance becomes 50/50 again. Dice have no memory.
Imagine I had parlayed teams A, B, C, D and E while you had parlayed teams V, W, X, Y and Z. Let's assume teams A-D and V-Y had already won, and let's further assume teams E and Z play against each other. By your logic, both teams would have a significantly increased chance of winning. It's obvious that this cannot be true, isn't it.

If its that easy then you should playing lots of 7 team and 10 team parlays.
 

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Man, no wonder bookies are still doing well!!! Some of you need to take a probability/statistics class.:ohno:
 

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Man, no wonder bookies are still doing well!!! Some of you need to take a probability/statistics class.:ohno:

You're so right. Actually it doesn't even take classes, a little common sense should be amply sufficient.

GoForIt - you apparently just don't understand. Of course it is much harder to hit a 7-team parlay than it is to hit one straight bet, no-one denies this. The thing is that each of the legs still has 50/50 chance no matter how the other games turn out, so once you have hit six legs you are, again, 50/50 to hit the seventh leg and your parlay. The hard part is hitting the other six before, obviously.

AR_23 - can you explain why the chances are, in your opinion, different the 10th time around? This makes absolutely no sense. It would mean the outcome of a game is affected by the way you bet. You don't really believe that, do you?
 
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SOPRANO YOU NEED TO GET A LIFE....YOU'RE OBSESSION WITH THIS GUY IS STARTING TO FREAK ME OUT..ARE YOU A STALKER?:wink:


Hey Met:

Not at all. I am doing what I was asked to do and that is have a seperate thread to track the records and not post in Rod's threads. Here's the reason behind my tracking:

My brother signed up for a handicapping service a few years ago and got destroyed by bad picks. At the end of the year, the service gave out several plays with units so high no one could possibly have played them.

When they won, the service denied their money back gaurantee to my brother saying they showed a profit for the year. Essentially, all the service did was keep raising the units until they finally won and then denied their customers their money back even though most of the customers had long since gone broke and there was no way anyone could afford to bet the amount of units they were given.

No one ever heard about the bad record or the losing season, but the service did manage to show up on several forums to tout its "winning season".

So, I thought maybe I should make sure that doesn't happen to anyone else as I saw first hand how certain services are operated.

Not saying Rod would ever do that to his customers though.
 
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Seahawk
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And that is why I believe a winning %age is always better than "UP 100 units"... crock of shit to me usually cuz ppl just jack up their shit like that to make a comeback.
 

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And that is why I believe a winning %age is always better than "UP 100 units"... crock of shit to me usually cuz ppl just jack up their shit like that to make a comeback.




So true, units are such a misnomer, % only objective way of knowing what's going on
 

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i bet the same amount of money on every game i play, no matter how strong i feel about it. 10 unit or 1000 unit, same bet. seems to work for me for years. never win a lot, but never lose a lot. just my personal opinion. gl 2 all.
 

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You're so right. Actually it doesn't even take classes, a little common sense should be amply sufficient.

GoForIt - you apparently just don't understand. Of course it is much harder to hit a 7-team parlay than it is to hit one straight bet, no-one denies this. The thing is that each of the legs still has 50/50 chance no matter how the other games turn out, so once you have hit six legs you are, again, 50/50 to hit the seventh leg and your parlay. The hard part is hitting the other six before, obviously.

AR_23 - can you explain why the chances are, in your opinion, different the 10th time around? This makes absolutely no sense. It would mean the outcome of a game is affected by the way you bet. You don't really believe that, do you?


AR_23 the odds of getting 10 heads or 10 tails in a row is 2^10.... however getting heads or tails on the 1st 5th or 10th flip is always 1/2...
 

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Tony...Let me get this right......You can track Rodfather, but not in his thread. He can come in your thread and plead his case. Somthing about that seems very strange to me.:wink:
 

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Hey Met:

Not at all. I am doing what I was asked to do and that is have a seperate thread to track the records and not post in Rod's threads. Here's the reason behind my tracking:

My brother signed up for a handicapping service a few years ago and got destroyed by bad picks. At the end of the year, the service gave out several plays with units so high no one could possibly have played them.

When they won, the service denied their money back gaurantee to my brother saying they showed a profit for the year. Essentially, all the service did was keep raising the units until they finally won and then denied their customers their money back even though most of the customers had long since gone broke and there was no way anyone could afford to bet the amount of units they were given.

No one ever heard about the bad record or the losing season, but the service did manage to show up on several forums to tout its "winning season".

So, I thought maybe I should make sure that doesn't happen to anyone else as I saw first hand how certain services are operated.

Not saying Rod would ever do that to his customers though.


Well thank you for that clarification because it was getting creepy.
it's good that you have your brother's back and i and i am sure many others here appreciate your heads up. i hate that 50 unit bullshit and to raise your units to show a profit..there are planty guys at this sight that i shall not name that are saying they are betting far more units than they are.But they are not charging us for they guaranteed plays and using that to get out of the guarantee...personally i have set my limit per bet at $500 and twice that saved my ass as i must have hit the 1 twice an dit lookedlike i was betting $1100 and the computer wouldn't take the play.

good luck in your quest :toast:
 

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Chances are far different come the 10th time around..

Seriously?? Please tell me you dont believe that. So if the roulette wheel has landed on black the last 245 spins then 246 will almost certainly be red??????
 

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I said it was 50/50 chance (read my earlier quote), but the odds of hitting 7 or 10 in a row are slim, thus the big parlay payouts by Vegas. I'm sure most people here have hit 7 or even 10 in a row at some point. What I"m saying and what I think AR_23 is saying is that despite the odds of being 50/50 it sure doesn't feel like it because the majority of the time people hit alot lower than 50 % after winning that many in a row. This is why nobody can maintain a massive win % in the long-run. Furthermore, losing streaks of 3 or more usually come after big winning streaks due to the regression to the mean. I also despise technical systems that are undefeated. I like 24-2 ATS alot better than 20-0 ATS or 26-0 ATS.
 

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In a game with a 50/50 chance
(47.5%) if you want to count vig the rodfather is counting on progression to the mean. I remember seeing Berman's picks one year and he played 48 games. Not suprisingly, his record was 24-24 ATS. Right near that 50% even with the winning streaks and losing streaks.
 

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... the majority of the time people hit alot lower than 50 % after winning that many in a row. This is why nobody can maintain a massive win % in the long-run. Furthermore, losing streaks of 3 or more usually come after big winning streaks due to the regression to the mean. I also despise technical systems that are undefeated. I like 24-2 ATS alot better than 20-0 ATS or 26-0 ATS.

Okay, I give up, and I can only hope that whatever profession you are in does not depend on math and/or common sense.
 

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Go back to the political room where you usually hang out. Obviously, you have not bet enough.
 
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Seahawk
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I said it was 50/50 chance (read my earlier quote), but the odds of hitting 7 or 10 in a row are slim, thus the big parlay payouts by Vegas. I'm sure most people here have hit 7 or even 10 in a row at some point. What I"m saying and what I think AR_23 is saying is that despite the odds of being 50/50 it sure doesn't feel like it because the majority of the time people hit alot lower than 50 % after winning that many in a row. This is why nobody can maintain a massive win % in the long-run. Furthermore, losing streaks of 3 or more usually come after big winning streaks due to the regression to the mean. I also despise technical systems that are undefeated. I like 24-2 ATS alot better than 20-0 ATS or 26-0 ATS.

So if you bet $1,000 on each game... do u make more on:

1) 24-2
2) 20-0
3) 26-0

According to your liking... #1 is the answer--Joe the plumber would tell you otherwise >:| Would you also take 24-2 over 24-0?
 

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So if you bet $1,000 on each game... do u make more on:

1) 24-2
2) 20-0
3) 26-0

According to your liking... #1 is the answer--Joe the plumber would tell you otherwise >:| Would you also take 24-2 over 24-0?


Situational Systems are created after the fact. You may have a system that is 24-2 or 26-0, but nobody bet all those games. I do know that the more parameters a situational system has the less likely it is to hit. Here is the proof. Marc Lawrence overtightens his systems like a wrench so he can sell them as 100% plays for marketing purposes. Yet, I've never seen so many 100% systems lose in my life. In my opinion, there needs to be logic and not piles of parameters. Otherwise, you are more likely to predict what already happen rather than what will happen. Here is an article I found on Dr. Bob's website who has a Ph.D. in statistics. He explains how situational systems work.
"Does Technical Analysis Work? Technical analysis has come under scrutiny by fundamental handicappers and some sports bettors due to the fact that anybody searching a database randomly for patterns will find situations that have produced very good results. However, the key is to look for situations that make sense. I don't use trends such as "so and so is 13-2 in week number 7" (does a team actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?) or “bet on home dogs from +2 to +4 if such and such" (the more narrow the pointspread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern). So how can I be sure that technical analysis works? I have done research on the predictability of both team trends and situational angles and both have proven to work to forecast the future, although most team trends no longer have the sample size to be significant given that I only use team trends that are compiled under the current coach. The record of situational trends that apply to all teams is much better as far as forecasting the future. At the beginning of each year, I make a list of the situational angles that I think are meaningful (they are all easily statistically significant). At the end of the year, I tally the results of these angles. In the last 8 years of doing this, I have found that the situational angles that I use (remember, if you're angles don't make sense they are not going to hold up as well) have won at a profitable rate of 56%, but the situations with a higher statistical significance (i.e. a higher t-value) have proven to be even more predictive.

Many handicappers tend to back-fit past data by adding more and more factors (parameters) to a situation until they have a very high percentage angle (but also a much smaller sample size). However, my research has shown that a situation's predictability is sacrificed with each parameter added to derive that situation. For instance, a situation with a record of 50-20 (71%) that is derived using 10 factors isn't as predictive as the 57.4% home underdog situation that I presented above, which has just 4 parameters (this game home, this game dog, won last game, dog last game) and a much larger sample size. It's easy to find a very high-percentage situation if you use an unlimited number of parameters to get to that situation, but all that will result in is a situation that explains what has happened rather than something that helps predict what will happen. My research, and the theories of statistics, shows that the more predictive angles have fewer factors and a larger sample size, rather than a smaller sample situation with a high winning percentage that was derived by using too many parameters. Further research I did in the Summer of 2004 enabled me to accurately assess a situation's future performance based on the win percentage, sample size, number of parameters and more recent performance (i.e. record of the angle over the past 3 seasons). That research led to a more realistic use of situational analysis than I've employed in the past. For instance, I can now tell you that a situation with a record of 140-60-5 ATS that uses 6 parameters has a 56.8% chance of winning the next time it applies if the line is fair. Having a realistic expectation of a situation's value has helped my overall analysis immensely the last 2 seasons and I will continue to devote time each summer to update the research on the predictability of my situational analysis.

Remember, just because a situation is 70% over 200 games in the past does not mean that it will win 70% of the time in the future. A 140-60 situational trend is simply a sample of 200 games selected from a population consisting of all NFL games. Since the NFL is constantly changing (although the league as a whole doesn't change nearly as quickly as most individual teams do), the results of the same situation in the future will not fully reflect the past. Also, by definition, a statistically significant trend has a 5% chance of being caused by no more than chance variation, and the record of those trends can be expected to be 50% as a whole, bringing down the overall percentage of all significant trends. There is also going to be a certain level of back-fitting involved in finding a situation, which also lowers the future percentage of the situation. Of course, the better the record, the greater number of games in the sample, and the fewer parameters there are in an angle the more likely that the situation is real and not just random."

The Doctor uses other factors as well to make picks and so do I. Situational systems is only 1 of 9 things I look at. I have no idea what the Doctor does. I only know that we both use situational systems as a guide. Basically, most picks have systems in it, but some systems are not picks. Furthermore, I NEVER pay for picks and usually bet early in the week for line value before I ever see anybody's picks.
 

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