The Triple Crown of Horse Racing all you need to know !

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part I

April 29, 2014


Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 140 on May 3rd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 2nd with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 2nd and May 3rd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.

Part II

CALIFORNIA CHROME

TRAINER: Art Sherman (Debut)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (1 for 5)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: It’s pretty safe to say you’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would have thought he’d be your 2014 Kentucky Derby favorite at the end of 2013. He did win three of seven starts but all of his wins came against California breds over synthetic surfaces and he was off the board in both of his starts against open company as well as his lone start going two turns, which was his conventional dirt debut. He closed out the season on a high note, winning a Cal-bred stakes in his first start with Victor Espinoza in the saddle

THIS YEAR: In a word, perfection. He’s been unmatched and undefeated in three starts, winning by a combined 18 lengths. He led all sophomores with 150 Derby points.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Santa Anita Derby-G1 at SA 1st by 5 ¼ 106 107
1 1/16m, dirt, San Felipe-G2 at SA 1st by 7 ¼ 102 108
1 1/16m, dirt, Cal Cup Derby at SA 1st by 5 ½ 94 88


CONNECTIONS: The now 77-year-old Sherman was the exercise rider and rode the train from California with 1955 Derby winner Swaps, coincidentally your last Cal-bred winner of the roses. Espinoza won the 2002 renewal with War Emblem.

WORTH NOTING: It’s been said he’s not the best shipper. This will be his first start outside of CA and he isn’t scheduled to arrive in Louisville until Monday or Tuesday of Derby week.

FAIR PRICE: He’ll be the overwhelming favorite…..easily half the price of the second choice. If you’re a fan, I wouldn’t bet him to win at anything less than 3-1

DANCE WITH FATE

TRAINER: Peter Eurton (Debut)
JOCKEY: Corey Nakatani (0 for 16)

RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack

AS A JUVENILE: A winner of just one of five starts, he did finish second in consecutive grade 1 races, the Del Futurity on synthetic and Front Runner at Santa Anita on dirt, before closing out the season with a dull try in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after getting bothered at the start of the race.

THIS YEAR: In a word, non-conforming. He’s run three times this year, twice over synthetics, including a hard charging win in the Blue Grass last out and once on turf, hardly a traditional way to get to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, synth, Blue Grass-G1 at KEE 1st by 1 ¾ 99 97
1 1/8m, synth, El Camino Real Dby-G3 at GG 2nd by ½ 89 90
1 mile, turf, opt cl/alw at SA 1st by 1 ¾ 88 83


CONNECTIONS: Considered by some to be the best active rider to have never won a Derby, this will be Nakatani’s 17th try while Eurton is taking his first crack at it. Speaking of Eurton, he’s a solid if not spectacular trainer on the West Coast that usually hits at around 17%

WORTH NOTING: Winless in his two starts over conventional dirt, connections were non-committal as to running after the Blue Grass score stating that was indeed the race they had circled on their calendar this spring.

FAIR PRICE: I know those 108 Derby points look great on paper but don’t let them fool you as they were almost exclusively earned in the Blue Grass last out over the Polytrack. If you like this guy anyway, you shouldn’t accept anything less than 18-1

VICAR’S IN TROUBLE

TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Rosie Napravnik (0 for 2)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: Third in his debut over the Keeneland Polytrack in a sprint, he broke his maiden emphatically by 13 lengths off of a two month break in mid-December going six furlongs over a course labeled good in 1:10 3/5.

THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. A couple of convincing scores in the LeComte and most recently in the Louisiana Derby sandwich a troubled trip third as the tepid favorite in the Risen Star in which he was caught extremely wide the entire way from post 13.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Louisiana Derby-G2 at FG 1st by 3 ½ 104 97
1 1/16m, dirt, Risen Star-G2 at FG 3rd by 5 ½ 92 87
1m70yds, dirt, LeComte at FG 1st by 6 ¾ 88 97


CONNECTIONS: One of three that trainer Maker has pointed to the race. One of two that owner Ken Ramsey has pointed to the race. Since the beginning of 2013, Maker and Napravnik have teamed up to win at a solid 26%.

WORTH NOTING: Napravnik is married to one of Maker’s top assistants, Joe Sharp and is looking to become the first female rider to win the Derby.

FAIR PRICE: Wouldn’t be surprised to see this one vying for second favoritism based on his consistency and daylight score last out. He’ll also take money due to the presence of Rosie. With that said, I still think you’ll get and should demand 8-1.

SAMRAAT

TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Stalking to just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: A perfect three for three with all of his wins coming against fellow New York breds, Samraat won by a combined 25 ¾ lengths, including a 16 ¾ length thrashing of the Damon Runyon.

THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent, one of the, if not THE best word when it comes to the Derby Trail. Had trouble shaking fellow statebred Uncle Sigh in his two stakes wins this year but followed them up with arguably his best effort when rerallying to grab the place money in the G1 Wood Memorial in his latest.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Wood Memorial-G1 at AQU 2nd by 3 ½ 99 98
1 1/16m, dirt, Gotham-G3 at AQU 1st by nk 99 96
1 1/16m, dirt, Withers-G3 at AQU 1st by 1 99 94


CONNECTIONS: Violette has been an important part of the training landscape in both New York and Florida for many years while Ortiz has quickly established himself as one of the top riders in New York, the toughest jocks colony in the country.

WORTH NOTING: Jose’s brother Irad Jr. is scheduled to ride Samraat’s rival and fellow New York bred Uncle Sigh in the Derby. They’ll be the first brothers to ride against each other for the roses since Sam and Eddie Maple did so 30 years ago in 1984.

FAIR PRICE: It’s amazing what a single loss can do. If he’d have won the Wood Memorial he would have been unbeaten in six starts and easily the second choice. Now, you hardly hear a word about him, which is a good thing if you’re a fan because you’re likely looking at a juicy 15-1 or so now.

WICKED STRONG

TRAINER: Jimmy Jerkens (Debut)
JOCKEY: Rajiv Maragh (0 for 3)

RUNNING STYLE: Closes from mid-pack

AS A JUVENILE: A second place finish in the slop in his debut was followed up by an impressive maiden score when stretching out to a mile against a highly regarded field. He closed out the season with a tenacious third place finish in the G2 Remsen behind a couple of Derby Trail casualties in Honor Code and Cairo Prince.

THIS YEAR: In a word, surprising. A buzz horse coming into the season, he was quickly dismissed by many after an abysmal run in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. A fourth place finish in an ultra-tough allowance contest that yielded G1 Florida Derby winner Constitution restored his connections’ faith a little bit. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens convinced the owners to go on to the G1 Wood Memorial and they were rewarded with a rousing score over a pair of undefeated colts in Samraat and Social Inclusion.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Wood Memorial-G1 at AQU 1st by 3 ½ 103 104
1 1/16m, dirt, opt cl/alw at GP 4th by 6 ½ 89 87
1 1/16m, dirt, Holy Bull-G2 at GP 9th by 15 ¾ 80 67


CONNECTIONS: Back in 2009, Jerkens had the favorite going into Derby week with Quality Road but was forced to withdraw early on in the week due to a quarter crack problem that plagued him throughout his career. Maragh has ridden in the event three times and is arguably riding in the best shape of his career.

WORTH NOTING: Named after the city of Boston and the thousands of men and women who responded to and survived the Boston Marathon bombings of 2013.

FAIR PRICE: Another who very well could vie for second favoritism based on his big run in the Wood Memorial I’d say 7-1 is about what you should expect on him.

DANZA

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Bravo (0 for 2)

RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: A hard fought debut score after dueling throughout at Saratoga followed by a third place finish in the G2 Saratoga Special in which he changed tactics and came running late from the back of the pack.

THIS YEAR: In a word, meteoric. He finished third off of a six and half month layoff behind more heralded stablemate Anchor Down before his connections decided on the G1 Arkansas Derby over the G1 Blue Grass because he probably wouldn’t have made the field in what was an already overfilled Blue Grass. The result: a monstrous score in the crown jewel of the Oaklawn Park meeting.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Arkansas Derby-G1 at OP 1st by 4 ¾ 104 102
7 fur, dirt, opt cl/alw at GP 3rd by 7 ½ 87 79
6 ½ fur, dirt, Saratoga Special-G2 at SAR 3rd by ½ 96 81


CONNECTIONS: Pletcher of course is famously battling his 1 for 36 mark in America’s greatest race while Bravo has had very little experience here. Throughout the year Pletcher will use Bravo as a second tier guy behind Velazquez and Castellano and to go out of town for stakes, hence Bravo riding Danza last out.

WORTH NOTING: Connections are trying to get actor/comedian Tony Danza to the Derby.

FAIR PRICE: A tricky question to answer since you just got Pletcher at $84!!! I can see him taking money simply because of that and the fact that he was running late in the game. You still need to get 20-1 on this colt.

HOPPERTUNITY

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)

RUNNING STYLE: Just off the pace

AS A JUVENILE: He was unraced, which means he will be looking to become the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without running as a juvenile.

THIS YEAR: In a word, spotty. When he wins, he looks like a solid racehorse, like he did in his maiden tally and through the stretch of a roughly run Rebel which he gutted out. But when he doesn’t win, he looks ordinary at best, as evident by his fourth place finish in the Risen Star. Last out looked like a quintessential prep as I don’t believe he was persevered with whatsoever.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Santa Anita Dby-G1 at SA 2nd by 5 ¼ 100 98
1 1/16m, dirt, Rebel-G2 at OP 1st by ½ 99 100
1 1/16m, dirt, Risen Star-G2 at FG 4th by 7 90 85


CONNECTIONS: Both know what it’s like to wear the roses and almost pulled it off as a team in 2012 with Bodemeister who finished a tough luck second. Baffert won this in ’97 with Silver Charm, ’98 with Real Quiet and ’02 with War Emblem while Smith shocked the world with 50-1 Giacomo in ’05. Together they win plenty of races out in California and across the country, most famously with Game On Dude.

WORTH NOTING: Perhaps trying to play catch-up for lack of a juvenile campaign, this will be Hoppertunity’s sixth start of the year and third trip out of California.

FAIR PRICE: If it wasn’t for the aforementioned “Curse of Apollo” I’m pretty sure he’d be your clear cut second choice. But with that looming over his head as well as a long sophomore campaign just to get into the Derby I’m thinking you need 8-1 on him.

INTENSE HOLIDAY

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 15)

RUNNING STYLE: Closes from the back of the pack

AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his maiden at second asking in his first start around two turns, Intense Holiday ran off the board in a series of stakes – G1 Champagne, G2 Nashua and G2 Remsen – while always putting in somewhat of a menacing run.

THIS YEAR: It looked like we were going to be seeing more of the 2013 version of this colt when he finished third, complete with a “sneaky good” move in the G2 Holy Bull. But that long stretch at the Fair Grounds brought the best out of him as he qualified for the Derby with an exciting rally from far back to win the G2 Risen Star in the last strides. He appeared tired when he hit the rail in mid-stretch last out in the G1 Louisiana Derby but still managed to hold the place.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Louisiana Derby-G2 at FG 2nd by 3 ½ 100 91
1 1/16m, dirt, Risen Star-G2 at FG 1st by no 99 97
1 1/16m, dirt, Holy Bull-G2 at GP 3rd by 6 ¼ 91 84


CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most prolific trainer/jockey combo of the past 20 years, they’ve each won the roses but haven’t done it together. Pletcher won it in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez grabbed the money the following year with Animal Kingdom. Though Javier Castellano rides his share of the barn, Johnny V. is still one of the main guys in Pletcher’s barn.

WORTH NOTING: Owner Starlight Racing is enjoying this springtime as they not only have this guy in the Derby but their first “big horse,” Ashado, was just announced as an inductee into the National Museum and Hall of Fame this summer at Saratoga. Ashado was trained and ridden by Pletcher and Velazquez.

FAIR PRICE: I can’t put my finger on it but we really haven’t heard much buzz from the Fair Grounds Derby contingent this season. With that said, you’ll probably be able to get anywhere from 15-1 to 20-1 on him.

WILDCAT RED

TRAINER: Jose Garoffalo (Debut)
JOCKEY: Luis Saez (0 for 1)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: He hit the wire first in all three of his starts but was disqualified from his third and final win of the year in a Florida bred stakes race for bearing out in the stretch.

THIS YEAR: In a word, consistent. He lost the Gulfstream Park Derby by a head, galloped home clear in the G3 Hutcheson, won the G2 Fountain of Youth by a desperate head over rival General a Rod then just missed by a neck last out when his rider John Velazquez let the winner, Constitution, up the rail for the neck victory.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Florida Derby-G1 at GP 2nd by nk 97 99
1 1/16m, dirt, Fountain of Youth G2 at GP 1st by hd 100 101
7 fur, dirt, Hutcheson-G3 at G P 1st by 4 ¾ 97 96


CONNECTIONS: Garoffalo is new to the big stage but has done a fine job in Florida while Saez winds up here after losing his Derby horse, Cairo Prince, to an ankle chip. The two did team up to win the Fountain of Youth.

WORTH NOTING: For a horse as consistent as he is, he’s four for seven in his career with three seconds, he’s had a tough time keeping a rider on his back. In fact, this will be the first time in five starts this year that he’ll be ridden by a jockey who’s already been aboard.

FAIR PRICE: I haven’t seen too many horses this year, or ever frankly, that love getting into a dogfight as much as this guy. And he gets into plenty of them. While that’s a great quality, especially in a race like this, you’re still going to need to command value on a horse like him. 18-1 is the least you can take.

RIDE ON CURLIN

TRAINER: Billy Gowan (Debut)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 11)

RUNNING STYLE: Settles in mid-pack and makes one run.

AS A JUVENILE: After breaking his record in track record time second out at Ellis Park, it was strictly stakes competition in his final three starts of the year. A fourth place finish in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill was followed up by a fantastic effort in the G1 Champagne where he was third behind Havana and Honor Code and a third place finish in the Street Sense at Churchill.

THIS YEAR: In a word, frustrating. He started the year with an easy allowance score but then had a strange strip in the G3 Southwest when he was 8 wide, wasn’t ridden as aggressively as he should have been when third in a roughly run G2 Rebel then finally was able to work out a decent trip and make a solid run for the place money, and more importantly, place Derby points, last out in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Arkansas Derby-G1 at OP 2nd by 4 ¾ 99 94
1 1/16m, dirt, Rebel-G2 at OP 3 by 1 98 98
1 1/16m, dirt, Southwest-G3 at OP 3 by 10 ¼ 87 80


CONNECTIONS: Local boy Billy Gowan is looking to fulfill every Kentucky trainers’ lifelong dream in his debut and we all know about Borel’s exploits in the race, winning three of these in four years with Street Sense in ’07, Mine That Bird in ’09 and Super Saver in 2010.

WORTH NOTING: His owner, Dan Dougherty, is a Louisville native and local furniture store owner. A Louisville resident hasn’t won the Derby in over 100 years.

FAIR PRICE: The words “fair price” and “Calvin Borel” will never be compatible in a sentence regarding the Kentucky Derby ever again. Still, I think he’ll get lost in the shuffle enough where you’ll get the 20-1 you should get on him. He’d be 5-10 points higher with another jock.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part II

April 29, 2014


Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 140 on May 3rd at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 2nd with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 2nd and May 3rd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year.

Part I

WE MISS ARTIE

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 7)

RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.

AS A JUVENILE: In five starts, he tried every surface with his best effort coming over the Keeneland Polytrack when he scored in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in a driving rainstorm. Second in his debut on dirt, he ended the year with an off the board finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also went one for two on the turf.

THIS YEAR: In a word, boggling, as in its boggling to think he is running in the Derby. He’s run three times: a bang up second in the Kitten’s Joy on the turf to start the year, an abysmal performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth on dirt and a last to first score in his latest, the G3 Spiral at Turfway over their synthetic surface. The dirt race is the lone blemish.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, synth, Spiral-G3 at TP 1st by ns 93 85
1 1/16m, dirt, Fountain of Youth G2 at GP 8th by 17 ½ 80 70
1 1/16m, turf, Kitten’s Joy at GP 2nd by hd 94 89


CONNECTIONS: Pletcher has to hear about his record in here continuously for three months each time this year while Castellano, for all he’s accomplished, hasn’t really come close. Together they’re winning at OVER 35% this year alone.

WORTH NOTING: After his workout on the dirt at Churchill on Sunday, April 27. Pletcher said it was his worst dirt work ever and that he’d talk with the owner, Ken Ramsey, before going forward with running in the Derby. Ramsey later said the horse would run as long as there wasn’t anything physically wrong with him.

FAIR PRICE: He’s never missed being in the exacta on turf or synthetics, he’s 0 for 3 on the dirt. Combine that with events of this past weekend and you have to get at least 30-1 on him despite his high profile trainer/jockey combo.

CHITU

TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 23)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 2)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: On December 7, Chitu broke his maiden at first asking over the synthetic surface at Hollywood Park by 1 ¼ lengths going 6 furlongs. Less than three week later, he came back to grind out an optional claimer/allowance contest by half a length going the same six furlongs.

THIS YEAR: In a word, under-raced. He raced fairly evenly despite making the lead briefly in the stretch when second in the G2 Robert Lewis then sat just off the early leader in the G3 Sunland Park Derby en route to a 2 ¼ length score over stablemate Midnight Hawk.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Sunland Park Derby-G3 at SP 1 by 2 ¼ 103 102
1 1/16m, dirt, Robert Lewis-G2 at SA 2 by ½ 96 95
6 fur, dirt, opt cl/alw at SA 1 by ½ 89 92


CONNECTIONS: Baffert has won three with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem in 1997, 1998 and 2002 respectively and though Garcia hasn’t had much Derby experience, he is one of Baffert’s go-to guys and they did team up to win, amongst other big races, the 2010 Preakness with Lookin at Lucky.

WORTH NOTING: Chitu lost a protective shoe he’s been wearing to battle a minor foot problem during his last work this past weekend at Churchill.

FAIR PRICE: Baffert is another “trigger” name for the bettors that only wager on big days so it’s almost always impossible to get the right price on his horses. He SHOULD be 25-1 but don’t expect it.

TAPITURE

TRAINER: Steve Asmussen (0 for 12)
JOCKEY: Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: Stalks from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: It took him four tries to break his maiden but when he did he did it in fine fashion with a 4 ¼ length romp in the G2 KJC at Churchill. Earlier in the season he was third in the G3 Iroquois and hit th board in a pair of maiden special weight races.

THIS YEAR: In a word, underachieving. Sure, he started the season with a daylight score in the G3 Southwest, immediately stamping himself a major player in the division. But since, he got bullied around in the stretch of the G2 Rebel and barely raised his hooves in the G1 Arkansas Derby in one of the more mind-boggling performances of the prep season.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Arkansas Derby-G1 at OP 4th by 7 ½ 96 90
1 1/16m, dirt, Rebel-G2 at OP 2nd by ½ 99 99
1 1/16m, dirt, Southwest-G3 at OP 1st by 4 ½ 99 98


CONNECTIONS: Asmussen has been here before with some big chances, namely Curlin, but hasn’t been able to get the job done while Santana is new to this big scene. Throughout the year, the duo team up regularly and after a failed attempt when switching to Joel Rosario for his last start, Asmussen reached back out for Santana immediately.

WORTH NOTING: His owner Winchell Thoroughbreds could be going for a rare Oaks/Derby sweep when he loads into the gate as they also own the filly Untapable who should be the overwhelming favorite in the Oaks on Friday.

FAIR PRICE: Three weeks ago, you’d have been happy as a clam to get 10-1 on him but with that black eye that is the Arkansas Derby on his resume now you have a better chance at seeing double that price.

GENERAL A ROD

TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 4)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: A Polytrack win in a sprint at Keeneland in his debut followed up by a solid place finish to Conquest Titan going a mile at Churchill on conventional dirt.

THIS YEAR: In a word, reliable. Not only does he always show up, he’s responsible for one of the best rivalries, along with Wildcat Red, on the Derby Trail this season. A gutsy win by a head bob in the Gulfstream Park Derby is the highlight of his year thus far as he took a nasty beat in the G2 Fountain of Youth when he was never more than a half-length away from Wildcat Red before failing to make up any ground late when finishing third in the G1 Florida Derby.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Florida Derby-G1 at GP 3rd by 1 ½ 95 97
1 1/16m, dirt, Fountain of Youth-G2 at GP 2nd by hd 100 101
1 mile, dirt, Gulfstream Park Derby at GP 1st by hd 96 92


CONNECTIONS: Together, they set records in 2013 at Keeneland for wins in a meet and always seem to do damage when they team up. Maker hasn’t had any success here yet but Rosario of course piloted Orb to win the roses just last year.

WORTH NOTING: He’ll be staying with Maker but General a Rod was actually sold during Derby week, in part to the connections of Intense Holiday.

FAIR PRICE: Since Florida Derby winner Constitution and, to a lesser degree, Cairo Prince were declared from the Derby, you’ve hear ZERO about the rest of the Florida contingent. With that said, I’m sure you’ll be able to get 30-1 on him.

UNCLE SIGH

TRAINER: Gary Contessa (Debut)
JOCKEY: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: On or close to the lead.

AS A JUVENILE: Missed by just a head in his debut after a bit of a flat-footed start in a sprint then romped by over 14 lengths less than three weeks later.

THIS YEAR: In a word, gritty. Lost a pair of toughies to fellow New York bred Samraat. First he was rundown in the final stages of the G3 Withers after setting the pace most of the way then was forced to do the dirty work when chasing between horses in the G3 Gotham. H broke a bit poorly in the G1 Wood Memorial last out, was taken completely out of his element and raced four wide throughout in what amounts to a toss out effort.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Wood Memorial-G1 at AQU 5th by 8 94 91
1 1/16m, dirt, Gotham-G3 at AQU 2nd by nk 99 96
1 1/16m, dirt, Withers-G3 at AQU 2nd by 1 98 92


CONNECTIONS: Contessa has won over 2000 races and has been a New York regular for what seems like forever while Ortiz has quickly become one of the top guys on the NYRA circuit year-round.

WORTH NOTING: After tinkering with the idea for a while, Contessa is going to equip Uncle Sigh with blinkers for the Derby. And, yes, he’s named after the Duck Dynasty guy.

FAIR PRICE: When all is said and done, he’s won once in just five starts and is eligible for an entry level allowance contest. 30-1 is about right.

VINCEREMOS

TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 36)
JOCKEY: Joe Rocco, Jr. (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from just off the pace.

AS A JUVENILE: In his lone two-year-old try, he finished second at Gulfstream in a sprint over a sloppy track.

THIS YEAR: In a word, questionable. His maiden race was far from flashy, he was probably second or third best when he held off Harpoon by a nose in the G3 Davis, he raced evenly in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby then was completely abysmal last out when trailing the G1 Blue Grass.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, synth, Blue Grass-G1 at KEE 14th by 28 ½ 67 40
1 1/16m, dirt, Tampa Bay Derby-G2 at TB 2nd by 3 93 90
1 1/16m, dirt, Sam F Davis-G3 at TB 1st by ns 92 82


CONNECTIONS: Pletcher reaches out to the under-the-radar Joe Rocco, Jr. who’ll be making his Derby debut.

WORTH NOTING: Wasn’t “officially” in the Derby until a satisfactory workout this past weekend.

FAIR PRICE: Surprisingly, there is a chance a Todd Pletcher entrant could be the longest shot on the board in the Derby and it’s this guy. 35-1 is the right price.

COMMANDING CURVE

TRAINER: Dallas Stewart (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Shaun Bridgmohan (0 for 5)

RUNNING STYLE: Your prototypical one run closer.

AS A JUVENILE: It took him four starts to do so but when he finally broke his maiden it was going tow turns at Churchill Downs.

THIS YEAR: In a word, unlucky. Got shuffled back terribly then was forced five deep in the G2 Risen Star then he get bothered at the break of the G2 Louisiana Derby before making up a ton of ground to get the show dough on a day where speed reigned supreme in route races.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Louisiana Derby-G2 at FG 3rd by 5 98 89
1 1/16m, dirt, Risen Star-G2 at FG 6th by 8 ¼ 89 83
1 1/16m, dirt, mdn spcl wt at CD 1st by 1 ½ 91 80


CONNECTIONS: Stewart was running around last year telling people he hoped his charge Golden Soul would draw into the field. He did and finished a hard-charging second to Orb at a huge price. He’s doing the same thing with this guy. Bridgmohan broke this colts’ maiden.

WORTH NOTING: Owners West Point Thoroughbreds were forced to withdraw Ring Weekend on Sunday due to fever and infection. The beneficiary of the scratch: Commanding Curve.

FAIR PRICE: He’s the last one in right now but he figures to take some action based on the fact that he always seem to be closing ground at the end of his races. 25-1 is fair.

HARRY’S HOLIDAY

TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Corey Lanerie (Debut)

RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.

AS A JUVENILE: Claimed from Steve Asmussen out of his debut win for $30K, he subsequently finished second and won against starter allowance competition.

THIS YEAR: In a word, sporadic. Off the board to start the year in the Pasco at Tampa, he’s made his last four starts with blinkers over synthetic surfaces with mixed results.He romped in a minor sprint stakes at Turfway, got real tired in the Battaglia when he faded to third then ran the race of his life when a gutsy second by a nose in the G3 Spiral You tell me what happened last out in the G1 Blue Grass and we’ll both know.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, synth, Blue Grass-G1 at KEE 13th by 28 ¼ 67 48
1 1/8m, synth, Spiral-G3 at TP 2nd by ns 93 85
1 1/16m, synth, Battaglia at TP 3rd by 9 ¾ 81 66


CONNECTIONS: Surprisingly, Lanerie, for all the winning he’s done in the Midwest, has never ridden in the Run for the Roses. Maker hasn’t really had much luck here.

WORTH NOTING: He’ll look to follow in the footsteps of former claimer Charismatic, who rose to Derby fame with an upset score in 1999.

FAIR PRICE: Arguably the slowest horse in the race, you need to get at least 40-1.

CANDY BOY

TRAINER: John Sadler (0 for 3)
JOCKEY: Gary Stevens (3 for 19)

RUNNING STYLE: He makes one run, from the middle or back of the pack.

AS A JUVENILE: Just one for five last year, he kept some interesting company in the form of G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day, the precocious Tap It Rich and finished second to end the year after breaking his maiden against the undefeated Eclipse champ Shared Belief in the G1 CashCall Futurity.

THIS YEAR: In a word, enigmatic, as he’s run just twice after an extensive two-year-old season. Impressed many with his late rally to win the G2 Robert Lewis over eventual G3 Sunland Derby winner Chitu and the multiple graded stakes placed Midnight Hawk, didn’t run by design for two months and didn’t really lift a hoof when third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, dirt, Santa Anita Derby-G1 at SA 3rd by 8 ¾ 96 92
1 1/16m, dirt, Robert Lewis-G2 at SA 1st by ½ 97 96
1 1/16m, synth, CashCall Futurity-G1 at HOL 2nd by 5 ¾ 94 95


CONNECTIONS: Sadler is still looking for his first Derby while Stevens is searching for number four and first since his return from a seven year hiatus. He won the 1988 Derby with Winning Colors, with Thunder Gulch in 1995 and with Silver Charm in 1997.

WORTH NOTING: Stevens declared him his “number one draft pick” after the Lewis victory with some 83 days left until the Derby at the time.

FAIR PRICE: He’s another I’m not sure about how the public is going to react to. He had a tremendous amount of buzz for a while but California Chrome has garnered all the attention out west and he really didn’t inspire many with that effort last out. I don’t think you’ll get it but he should be 25-1

MEDAL COUNT

TRAINER: Dale Romans (0 for 4)
JOCKEY: Robby Albarado (0 for 13)

RUNNING STYLE: He’s a one run closer.

AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden around two turns at Ellis Park in an off the turf race, was a troubled trip fifth in the G3 Bourbon over the Polytrack at Keeneland then didn’t run a step in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

THIS YEAR: In a word, resilient. He closed into dawdling fractions to dead heat for the win in a turf allowance race to start the year at Gulfstream then had trouble making up ground on a speed biased course in the G2 Fountain of Youth. In his last two, he won the off the turf Transylvania from the rail then flew home to be second in the G1 Blue Grass from post 13, both at Keeneland.

Breakdown
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
1 1/8m, synth, Blue Grass-G1 at KEE 2nd by 1 ¾ 97 94
1 1/16m, synth, Transylvania-G3 at KEE 1st by 1 ¼ 94 94
1 1/16m, dirt, Fountain of Youth-G2 at GP 5th by 9 ¼ 89 84


CONNECTIONS: Both make their home on the Midwest circuit and win their fair share of races, exclusively and together. They just can’t seem to win the REALLY big ones.

WORTH NOTING: He’ll be making his third start in 30 days in the Derby and his last two races were just eight days apart.

FAIR PRICE: His synthetic and turf form is good while his conventional dirt form can appears to be a bit puzzling. Not sure how the public is going to react to all of this racing in such a short period of time. 20-1 is the least you could ask for on him.

 

[CNOTES]

Untapable is 4-5 early favorite for Oaks

May 1, 2014

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Untapable should feel right at home when she takes to the track for the $1 million Kentucky Oaks.

After all, she's undefeated in two previous races at Churchill Downs, and she's the early 4-5 favorite for Friday's 140th running of the nation's richest race for 3-year-old fillies.

Untapable has won both her starts this year by a combined 17 1/4 lengths. She'll take on 12 rivals in the 1 1/8-mile race.

The filly will be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, who is seeking her second Oaks win. She became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby eve race in 2012 aboard Believe You Can.

''It was so special,'' Napravnik said Thursday. ''It was my all-time favorite moment of my career. I kind of feel like it's my race. I'm really excited to ride a filly I have so much confidence in.''

Untapable's trainer, Steve Asmussen, has an Oaks win on his resume, too, saddling Summerly to victory in 2005.

He is under investigation for alleged abuse of horses by Kentucky and New York racing officials after People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals secretly videotaped scenes and conversations in his barn.

Untapable drew the No. 13 post on the far outside.

Fashion Plate is the early 6-1 second choice in the wagering. She's won her last three starts, including two at Santa Anita with 51-year-old jockey Gary Stevens aboard.

Three-time Oaks winner Todd Pletcher will saddle My Miss Sophia and Got Lucky in an attempt to become the first trainer since D. Wayne Lukas to win the race in consecutive years. He won last year with Princess of Sylmar. Lukas won in 1989-90. He used to employ Pletcher as an assistant.

My Miss Sophia is 3-0 in her career, most recently winning the Gazelle at Aqueduct in her stakes debut. Got Lucky finished second in the Gazelle in her last start.

Bob Baffert, a two-time Oaks winner, will send out Ria Antonia, who will be ridden by Hall of Famer Mike Smith. They were set to team up in Saturday's Kentucky Derby with early second choice Hoppertunity, but the colt was scratched Thursday with a foot problem.

Dallas Stewart will try to win his second Oaks. He trained and partly owned 2006 winner Lemons Forever, and he will send that winner's daughter, Unbridled Forever, to the post on Friday.

Also chasing a second Oaks victory is Calvin Borel, who was aboard Rachel Alexandra in her 20 1/4-length victory in 2009. This time he rides Sugar Shock.

The field for the Kentucky Oaks, from the rail out, with jockey and morning line odds (all starters carry 121 pounds): Please Explain, Jose Lezcano, 50-1; Ria Antonia, Smith, 10-1; Sugar Shock, Borel, 12-1; Rosalind, Joel Rosario, 8-1; Thank You Marylou, Julien Leparoux, 30-1; Kiss Moon, Victor Espinoza, 30-1; Fashion Plate, Stevens, 6-1; Aurelia's Belle, Channing Hill, 50-1; Unbridled Forever, Robby Albarado, 12-1; Empress of Midway, Corey Nakatani, 50-1; My Miss Sophia, Javier Castellano, 8-1; Got Lucky, John Velazquez, 20-1; and Untapable, Napravnik, 4-5.

 

[CNOTES]

Dance With Fate prepares for Derby

May 1, 2014


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - For several days this month, Dance With Fate's Kentucky Derby destiny hung in the balance.

The black colt earned a place in the gate for Saturday's 140th running at Churchill Downs by winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12. Despite vaulting to third place on the Derby points leaderboard with the victory, trainer Peter Eurton and Dance With Fate's ownership mulled whether he could make the three-week turnaround between that race and the Triple Crown's marquee event.

They decided the Florida-bred could.

Dance With Fate has shown enough energy and promise in workouts this week that Eurton and jockey Corey Nakatani believe he can overcome his early 20-1 odds and be a factor in the Derby. He drew the 12th post position Wednesday.

''I'm pretty happy,'' Eurton said. ''It's a great draw outside of a lot of speed. I think it's a good spot, just a great place to be.''

But it will be a test for Dance With Fate, who will make just his third start on dirt after building an impressive resume on turf and synthetic surfaces. He has three wins and three seconds in eight career starts, the latest of which suggested to Nakatani that he's just scratched the surface of his ability.

''He's earned his way here, that's half of it,'' said Nakatani, who will ride Dance With Fate for the second time. ''The other part is, I like his running style. He's showing me he's got the credentials to win the race.

''Hopefully, his energy level stays the way it is. Traveling didn't seem to bother him, and I'm pretty confident in his ability to go out there and give his best. That's what we're looking forward to.''

Bolstering Nakatani's and Eurton faith is Dance With Fate's knack for performing when the stakes are high. He preceded his Blue Grass triumph with a runner-up effort in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in California and posted consecutive seconds in Grade 1 races at Del Mar and Santa Anita last year.

Already impressive as a speed horse, Dance With Fate raised his profile even more in the Blue Grass by rallying from deep in the pack to fly past Pablo Del Monte and favored Bobby's Kitten to win. Just like that, Dance With Fate became a Derby contender, at least points-wise.

But because that win, like Dance With Fate's wins out West, were achieved on synthetic or turf, the question is whether he can run as well on dirt.

His Derby odds somewhat reflect that doubt, to say nothing of the hurdle Dance With Fate already faces in a 20-horse field led by streaking California Chrome. He was made the 5-2 early favorite and will start from the fifth post position.

On the one hand, the surface might not matter because two of Dance With Fate's runner-up finishes came on dirt at Santa Anita. But that track also was the site of his eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he was squeezed at the start and never was a factor.

Eurton believes his horse will make the transition to dirt, partly because he has seemed livelier in workouts, including in the slop Wednesday. If anything, Dance With Fate appears eager to build on the momentum from his Blue Grass win.

''I believe there are horses for courses, that old saying goes,'' Eurton said. ''But he's amazingly aggressive and nothing really bothers him. I didn't think there'd be a big process of him getting used to it.

''I just hoped he liked it like other tracks we've shipped him to. I don't think he'll have a problem.''

 

[CNOTES]

Rosie Napravnik chasing history in Derby

May 1, 2014



LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - She started out her career disguising her gender, riding under the initials A.R. Napravnik. In the male-dominated world of horse racing, Anna Rose Napravnik figured she'd have better luck if nobody noticed a woman's name in the track program.

With her red hair tucked under her helmet, she blended in with the male jockeys in their brightly colored silks, white pants and polished black riding boots.

Nine years later, Rosie Napravnik is one of the rising stars in the sport, having long ago discarded her ruse. Now the 26-year-old from New Jersey will try to make history this weekend and become the first woman to ride a Kentucky Derby winner.

She's achieved firsts before. She was the first woman to win the Louisiana Derby, and did it twice. She also was the highest-placing female rider in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth last year aboard Mylute. She was the first woman to win a riding title at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in 2011, with 34 more victories than the runner-up.

She was the first woman to win the Kentucky Oaks, a $1 million race run on Derby eve, and has a strong chance to win it again Friday with early 4-5 favorite Untapable. Her mount in the Derby on Saturday is 20-1 long shot Vicar's In Trouble.

''When I think about the things I've done in my career, it seems like I just started yesterday,'' said Napravnik, a winner in her very first race just days after finishing her junior year in high school.

''I've been in so many different places. I've been so lucky to have ridden some of the horses I've ridden. It keeps building, and getting better and better and better.''

Not much would be better than winning the Derby on her third try.

She's facing a built-in challenge: Vicar's In Trouble drew the dreaded No. 1 spot in the starting gate. With 19 horses on his outside fighting to move inside to save ground, he and Napravnik will be under the gun when the gate springs open.

''He gets out of that gate fast every single time,'' she said. ''If I have to ride somebody out of there, I'm glad it's him.''

Amid the hustle of race week, Napravnik has been doing her homework, using her computer and smart phone to watch replays of previous Derbies. She's been focused on the horse in the No. 1 position. The rail extends into its path, so horse and rider need to be quick to avoid running into it.

Eight horses have won the Derby from the No. 1 post, most recently Ferdinand in 1986. Citation, the 1948 Triple Crown winner, started from there.

''It's probably not as bad as people think it is,'' she said. ''I think I'll be able to get Vicar into good position.''

Vicar's In Trouble is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, a Kentucky-based couple who are among the sport's most successful owners.

''Rosie has ridden him in all of his races,'' Ken Ramsey said. ''She knows what to do.''

Napravnik's riding style can be as fiery as her red hair. After the Derby, she'll serve a four-day suspension for causing the disqualification of Bayern from first to second in last weekend's Derby Trial at Churchill Downs.

Napravnik and Bayern made contact with Embellishing Bob in the final furlong, and his jockey lodged an objection against Napravnik. The stewards agreed and changed the order of finish, elevating Embellishing Bob to first and dropping Bayern to second.

''Sometimes you go over the line, but it's all about getting the nostril in front,'' she said.

Napravnik is a strong finisher, riding hard to the wire without always relying on her whip to urge a horse on. She hones her strength not in the weight room, but on the track exercising horses in the mornings and then riding up to 10 races in the afternoons.

''You have to have the competitive drive to want to get it done,'' she said.

Her eagerness began when Napravnik broke her arm falling off a pony at age 4. Horses have been her whole life, having a father who is a blacksmith and a mother who ran a boarding and training stable.

Napravnik has an extra incentive to win the Derby this year. Her husband, Joe Sharp, is an assistant to Mike Maker, who trains Vicar's In Trouble. Sharp touted the Louisiana-bred colt to his wife of nearly three years early on.

''He's really impressed Joe the whole time,'' said Napravnik, who won her second Louisiana Derby with the colt. ''The story would almost be too good if we won the Kentucky Derby.''

Napravnik enjoys the support of female racing fans, which have hammered down the odds on both of her previous Derby horses through their wagering.

''Sometimes I feel like it puts me up on a pedestal when I don't feel like I should be there,'' she said. ''At the same time, I have learned to embrace it and be the role model that people want me to be. It's kind of inspiring to me that I've inspired other people.''

Napravnik is using her Derby opportunity to do some good.

In her name, Kentucky bourbon maker Wild Turkey is donating $10,000 to Old Friends, a retirement farm for thoroughbreds. Every time someone tweets (hashtag) RideWithRosie to (at) WildTurkey, the distiller will donate $1 to Old Friends, up to $10,000. If Napravnik wins the Derby, the donation will be doubled to $40,000.

It took a while after winning the Oaks for Napravnik to realize what she had done. Winning the Derby would take a lot longer to sink in.

''When you're in the middle of trying to get it accomplished, you're focused,'' she said. ''You don't really know until it happens. Hopefully, I'll find out.''

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby 2014: Who is bred for the distance?

Intense Holiday's pedigree ranks as the best of this Kentucky Derby field by distance capabilities.

No matter their résumé heading into the race, each horse in the Kentucky Derby field will be entering uncharted territory on Saturday when they stretch out to a mile and a quarter.

For most, the Derby’s 10 furlongs will be the longest distance they will ever have to run in competition. Since there is no racetrack performance to base an opinion on, one helpful tool to measure a horse’s distance capability is the average winning distance of the sire’s and dam’s progeny.
While there are always exceptions, the AWD numbers can provide a quick snapshot of a sire’s ability to impart stamina on his progeny or a dam’s capabilities as a producer. For example, if a stallion’s AWD is 7.75 furlongs, then the average distance of a race won by one of his offspring is between 7 1/2 furlongs and one mile. An average foal by that sire should be more likely to handle a route of ground than one by a sire with a lower AWD number.

Taking into account the comparative AWDs of the sires and dams of this year’s Kentucky Derby runners, Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes winner Intense Holiday emerges as the horse that appears the most capable of handling the classic distance from a pedigree standpoint.

Intense Holiday, owned by Starlight Racing, is out of the unplaced Unbridled’s Song mare Intensify, who had the highest AWD number among all the dams in this year’s Kentucky Derby field at 8.25 furlongs. Intense Holiday is Intensify’s lone winner from two foals to race, with wins at a mile and 1 1/16 miles. Those starts create the dam’s high average, which is admittedly somewhat misleading as it is solely based on Intense Holiday’s own race record.

The dark bay or brown colt is by the late Harlan’s Holiday, who ranked sixth among this year’s Derby sires with an AWD of 7.07 furlongs from eight crops of racing age. The offspring most applicable to Triple Crown discussion is Denis of Cork, who finished third in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, then returned to finish second in the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles.

Intense Holiday is the field’s only starter to have both his sire and dam rank in the top six by average progeny winning distance.
The only other horse to have both sire and dam finish in the top ten among the Derby entrants was Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Wicked Strong.
The bay colt is by 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun, who ranks eighth among 2014 Derby sires with an AWD of 6.96 furlongs. His four crops of racing age include Questing, the champion 3-year-old female of 2012, who won that year’s Grade 1, 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes by nine lengths.

Owned by Centennial Farms, Wicked Strong is out of the winning Charismatic mare Moyne Abbey, who is the dam of three winners from as many foals to race. She ranks fifth among Derby mares with an AWD number of 7.99 furlongs. Wicked Strong has won both at a mile and 1 1/8 miles, while half-sister Abbey Street, by Street Boss, won her maiden at 1 1/16 miles. Moyne Abbey’s first foal to race, a Fusaichi Pegasus colt, won his maiden going 1,300 meters (about 6 1/2 furlongs) in Korea.

Also of note, this year’s Kentucky Derby field features two sires represented by first-crop runners: 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up Pioneer of the Nile (AWD of 7.11 furlongs, fifth among Derby sires), who is the sire of Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Vinceremos; and Two Step Salsa (AWD of 6.43 furlongs, 17th), sire of Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance With Fate.

This year’s field also has three horses that are the first runners by their dams. Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner California Chrome is out of the winning Not For Love mare Love the Chase (AWD of 7.17 furlongs, 12th), while Grade 3 Spiral Stakes runner-up Harry’s Holiday is out of the unraced Orientate mare Daisy Mason (AWD of 6.33 furlongs, 18th). Pablo Del Monte is out of the winning Bring the Heat mare One Hot Wish (AWD of 5.5 furlongs, 20th).

The Derby stallion with the highest AWD number among this year’s field is the late Dynaformer, the sire of Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Medal Count, whose 22 crops of racing age have won at an average distance of 9.13 furlongs. Dynaformer, the sire of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, is the field’s only sire with an AWD number over 1 1/8 miles, and he is one of just two in the field with a figure greater than a mile. The other is Giant’s Causeway, sire of Pablo Del Monte, at 8.54 furlongs.

Rankings of Kentucky Derby starters by pedigree distance capabilities
Horse Sire Rank Dam Rank Total Score Combined Rank
Intense Holiday 6 1 7 1
Wicked Strong 8 5 13 2
Tapiture 4 10 14 3
Vinceremos 5 9 14 3
We Miss Artie 10 4 14 3
Medal Count 1 14 15 4
Danza 15 2 17 5
Commanding Curve 7 11 18 6
Uncle Sigh 13 6 19 7
Samraat 11 8 19 7
General a Rod 14 7 21 8
Chitu 18 3 21 8
Pablo Del Monte 2 20 22 9
Ride On Curlin 3 19 22 9
Candy Boy 9 13 22 9
Harry's Holiday 6 18 24 10
Vicar's in Trouble 12 15 27 11
California Chrome 16 12 28 12
Wildcat Red 15 17 32 13
Dance With Fate 17 16 33 14

Average progeny winning distance of sires represented in the Kentucky Derby
Stallion Horse(s) in Derby Crops of Racing Age Avg. Racing Distance
(furlongs) Avg Winning Distance
(furlongs)
Dynaformer Medal Count 22 8.98 9.13
Curlin Ride On Curlin 3 7.54 7.57
Tapit Tapiture 7 7.36 7.37
Pioneerof the Nile Vinceremos 2 6.99 7.11
Harlan's Holiday Intense Holiday
Harry's Holiday 8 7.21 7.07
Master Command Commanding Curve 3 6.9 6.98
Hard Spun Wicked Strong 4 7.04 6.96
Candy Ride Candy Boy 7 6.95 6.9
Artie Schiller We Miss Artie 5 6.97 6.84
Noble Causeway Samraat 4 6.79 6.75
Into Mischief Vicar's in Trouble 3 6.46 6.65
Indian Charlie Uncle Sigh 13 6.78 6.62
Roman Ruler General a Rod 6 6.67 6.57
Street Boss Danza 3 6.53 6.5
D'wildcat Wildcat Red 8 6.57 6.5
Lucky Pulpit California Chrome 5 6.43 6.45
Two Step Salsa Dance With Fate 2 6.67 6.43
Henny Hughes Chitu 5 6.42 6.31

Average progeny winning distance of mares with offspring in the Kentucky Derby
Mare Horse in Derby Starters Winners Avg. Winning Distance
(furlongs)
Intensify Intense Holiday 2 1 8.25
Champagne Royale Danza 4 4 8.11
Sea Gift Chitu 5 4 8.02
Athena's Gift We Miss Artie 2 2 8
Moyne Abbey Wicked Strong 3 3 7.99
Cradlesong Uncle Sigh 6 6 7.98
Dynamite Eyes General a Rod 2 2 7.67
Little Indian Girl Samraat 7 6 7.66
Kettle's Sister Vinceremos 2 2 7.5
Free Spin Tapiture 5 4 7.45
Mother Commanding Curve 2 2 7.38
Love the Chase California Chrome 1 1 7.17
She's an Eleven Candy Boy 3 2 7.08
Brisquette Medal Count 6 4 7
Vibrant Vicar's in Trouble 4 3 6.98
Flirting With Fate Dance With Fate 4 3 6.63
Racene Wildcat Red 6 6 6.35
Daisy Mason Harry's Holiday 1 1 6.33
Magical Ride Ride On Curlin 2 2 5.83

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: DDLohaus analyzes the Kentucky Derby

Happy Spring Everyone!

I went through all my data and charts and narrowed my selections to the following four horses…listen, California Chrome checks all the boxes and is a legit favorite but there is no way I will take short odds in this race…with that said I am going to get right to it…

Samraat: Honest horse who really hasn’t done anything wrong; last showed his grit; home track (Aqu) and distance a bit of a question but I think this guy is worth a play…

Wildcat Red: Like his breeding and think he will be OK stretching out; ran second to Constitution who would be a solid contender here; must admit I am puzzled by all the rider changes but I am willing to give him a shot

Chitu: Has been handling the added distance each race without issue and I think he will use his speed to get position and get first run turning for home

Tapiture: Willing to throw out last and just missed against a potential winner (Hopportunity). Has won here before.

The Bets:

$20W Chitu
$15W Samraat
$5 WPS Tapiture/Wildcard Red
$2ExBX Chitu/Samraat/Tapiture/Wildcard Red
$1TriBX Chitu/Samraat/Tapiture/Wildcat Red

Total: $137.00
Good Luck!

 

[CNOTES]

Derby scene: California Chrome jogs; countdown begins


Steve Coburn knew when he saw the newborn colt.

“I saw this baby twice,” the co-owner of California Chrome said. “Once in a dream, and then the day after he was born.”

Since the chestnut colt with the white face hit the ground Feb. 18, 2011, the clock has been ticking down to today. Tick-tock.

On Saturday morning, California Chrome went for an easy one-mile jog with exercise rider Willie Delgado aboard, the sun just beginning to brighten the twin spires as they loomed over the Kentucky Derby favorite.

More than three years of planning, now just over 12 hours to post. Tick-tock.

The colt walks back to Barn 20, his home for the last week since arriving with trainer Art Sherman to intense media scrutiny. He disappears into the shed row. He won’t leave the stable area again until just before 6 p.m., when the call comes for the 19 Derby horses to assemble in the chute for the walkover.

Across the way in Barn 38, Tapiture – who was foaled on this date three years ago – pokes his head out of the stall. It’s a quiet morning for stablemate Untapable, walking the shed row, having emerged in good order from her emphatic Kentucky Oaks victory Friday before a near-record crowd of 113,071.

An even bigger gathering is expected today, and the eyes of that crowd and beyond will be on trainer Steve Asmussen, in the wake of allegations by People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals that led to his removal from the Hall of Fame ballot, the firing of his top assistant, and a prominent client moving his horses. Asmussen now has a chance to become the first trainer to pull off the Oaks-Derby double since Ben Jones with Real Delight and Hill Gail in 1952.

Over in Barn 41, Ride On Curlin is full of energy, a hand-lettered sign on his stall door warning well-wishers that the colt bites. Earlier this week, trainer Billy Gowan – like Sherman, a Derby first-timer – leaned back in his chair and recalled his first Kentucky Derby memory – watching Secretariat launch his Triple Crown run in 1973.

A moment 41 years in the making comes later today when Gowan tightens the girth on his own Derby colt. Tick-tock.

It’s 8:30 a.m., training hours are over early, and fans are steadily streaming through the gates at Churchill Downs. Many congregating in the paddock area are sporting the colors of their Kentucky Derby selections – purple and green for California Chrome, red and white for Ramsey Farm’s two colts, blue and yellow for Intense Holiday. Women are sporting hats in an array of colors and styles, some matching the theme of their Derby choices.

The crowds gathering won’t have to contend with the breezy, occasionally cloudy conditions that prevailed on Oaks Day. Saturday morning dawned clear, and the weather at post time is expected to be in the 70s and sunny.

The track is fast. The turf is firm. It’s Kentucky Derby Day.

“The Derby is America’s race,” Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, riding in his second Derby since coming out of retirement, said. “It’s definitely my favorite place in the world.”

 

[CNOTES]

RESULTS AFTER TWO RACES:

Saturday, May 03, 2014
Partly Sunny: 71
Track: Fast
(Off: 10:30 Next Post: 11:01) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard
1 Mile | 3 Year Olds And Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
8 Doctor Peter C. Borel $8.80 $4.00 $2.80
6 Prosecution J. Court $3.40 $2.40
2 Upkeep J. Rocco, Jr. $2.60

Times in 5ths: :224 :453 1:094 1:22 1:35

Times in 100ths: :22.97 :45.62 1:09.84 1:22.02 1:35.09

Winning Trainer: Anderson Doug | Owner: Roustabout Racing Stables
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Foolhardy, Trace Creek, Nick's Pick, Victory Colors and Professor Trek
$2 Exacta (8-6) Paid: $24.00, $2 Trifecta (8-6-2) Paid: $74.00, $2 Superfecta (8-6-2-7) Paid: $450.20


(Off: 11:01) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard
1 1/16 Miles | 3 Year Olds | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
1 No Surrender J. Bravo $4.20 $3.60 $3.20
3 Sheikinator R. Albarado $6.60 $4.40
4 B and B's Pulpit F. Torres $7.60

Times in 5ths: :242 :48 1:12 1:372 1:441

Times in 100ths: :24.40 :48.08 1:12.02 1:37.54 1:44.33

Winning Trainer: Pletcher Todd | Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners

Scratched: Ship to Shore
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Demander, Unstoppable Colby, Chas's Legacy and Rockford
$2 Exacta (1-3) Paid: $37.20, $2 Trifecta (1-3-4) Paid: $522.60, $2 Superfecta (1-3-4-5) Paid: $1,748.20, $2 Daily Double (8-1) Paid: $29.20 Daily Double Pool $220,602.00

 

[CNOTES]

(Post Time: 6:24) Surface: Dirt GET PPs

Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $2,000,000

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5

# PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED.
1 1 Vicar's in Trouble ML: 30-1 R. Napravnik 126 Lbs M. Maker - L

2 2 Harry's Holiday ML: 50-1 C. Lanerie 126 Lbs M. Maker - L

3 3 Uncle Sigh ML: 30-1 I. Ortiz, Jr. 126 Lbs G. Contessa Blk-On L

4 4 Danza ML: 10-1 J. Bravo 126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L

5 5 California Chrome ML: 5-2 V. Espinoza 126 Lbs A. Sherman - L

6 6 Samraat ML: 15-1 J. Ortiz 126 Lbs R. Violette, Jr. - L

7 7 We Miss Artie ML: 50-1 J. Castellano 126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L

8 8 General a Rod ML: 15-1 J. Rosario 126 Lbs M. Maker - L

9 9 Vinceremos ML: 30-1 J. Rocco, Jr. 126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L

10 10 Wildcat Red ML: 15-1 L. Saez 126 Lbs J. Garoffalo - L

11 11 Hoppertunity ML: 6-1 M. Smith 126 Lbs B. Baffert - L ( SCRATCHED )

12 12 Dance With Fate ML: 20-1 C. Nakatani 126 Lbs P. Eurton - L

13 13 Chitu ML: 20-1 M. Garcia 126 Lbs B. Baffert - L

14 14 Medal Count ML: 20-1 R. Albarado 126 Lbs D. Romans - L

15 15 Tapiture ML: 15-1 R. Santana, Jr. 126 Lbs S. Asmussen - L

16 16 Intense Holiday ML: 12-1 J. Velazquez 126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L

17 17 Commanding Curve ML: 50-1 S. Bridgmohan 126 Lbs D. Stewart - L

18 18 Candy Boy ML: 20-1 G. Stevens 126 Lbs J. Sadler - L

19 19 Ride On Curlin ML: 15-1 C. Borel 126 Lbs W. Gowan - L

20 20 Wicked Strong ML: 8-1 R. Maragh 126 Lbs J. Jerkens - L

21 AE Pablo Del Monte ML: 50-1 J. Sanchez 126 Lbs W. Ward - L

 

[CNOTES]

SCR

Pablo Del Monte

SCR

SCR

 

[CNOTES]

(Off: 11:31) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard

6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
1 Masochistic V. Espinoza $6.20 $4.20 $3.00

2 Reeder J. Rocco, Jr. $5.80 $3.80

8 A Touch of Poetry J. Ortiz $3.00

Times in 5ths: :21 :443 :562 1:084

Times in 100ths: :21.18 :44.60 :56.47 1:08.85

Winning Trainer: Avila A. | Owner: Los Pollos Hermanos Racing and Santa Ines Stable

Scratched: Splinter
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Boss Gone, Coastal Moon, Q Two, Swift Humor, Ranger Regiment and Grand Slam Kid
$2 Exacta (1-2) Paid: $34.40, $2 Trifecta (1-2-8) Paid: $140.20, $2 Pick 3 (8-1-1) 3 Correct Paid: $83.60 Pick 3 Pool $270,734.00 , $2 Daily Double (1-1) Paid: $11.40 Daily Double Pool $83,525.00 , $2 Consolation Pick 3 (8-1-6) Paid: $27.00, $2 Superfecta (1-2-8-10) Paid: $387.80, $2 Consolation Double (1-6) Paid: $4.20

 

[CNOTES]

4TH (Off: 12:04 Next Post: 12:38) Surface: Turf GET PPS: This Racecard
1 1/16 Miles Turf | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
2 Faerie Queene C. Lanerie $19.20 $8.00 $5.00
7 Flashy Gal J. Rosario $7.80 $4.80
1 Abundantly Clear J. Castellano $5.00

Times in 5ths: :234 :471 1:11 1:353 1:421

Times in 100ths: :23.82 :47.36 1:11.10 1:35.79 1:42.22

Winning Trainer: Hiles Rick | Owner: Kerr George
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Night Song, Magical Steps, Kimallosa, Kyriaki, Sultry Warrior, First Romance and Finishing Touch
$2 Exacta (2-7) Paid: $133.00, $2 Trifecta (2-7-1) Paid: $848.00, $2 Pick 3 (1-1-2) 3 Correct Paid: $158.20 Pick 3 Pool $126,395.00 , $2 Daily Double (1-2) Paid: $57.20 Daily Double Pool $94,430.00 , $2 Consolation Pick 3 (1-6-2) Paid: $40.40, $2 Superfecta (2-7-1-5) Paid: $6,086.00


5TH (Off: 12:38 Next Post: 1:19) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard
7 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
9 Jessica's Star J. Graham $10.80 $6.00 $4.80
2 Twang J. Rosario $6.20 $4.20
8 Ulanbator J. Leparoux $4.80

Times in 5ths: :22 :443 1:092 1:223

Times in 100ths: :22.05 :44.63 1:09.48 1:22.72

Winning Trainer: Stidham Michael | Owner: Breen Mark
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Thundergram, Saint Finian, How Bout That, Bitters 'n Bourbon, Watery Moon, Sultry Cat, Standpoint and Johnmack Daddy
$2 Exacta (9-2) Paid: $86.00, $2 Trifecta (9-2-8) Paid: $640.80, $2 Pick 3 (1-2-9) 3 Correct Paid: $385.60 Pick 3 Pool $252,348.00 , $2 Pick 4 (1/2-1/6-2-9) 4 Correct Paid: $962.60 Pick 4 Pool $623,079.00 , $2 Daily Double (2-9) Paid: $82.80 Daily Double Pool $92,906.00 , $2 Superfecta (9-2-8-7) Paid: $2,086.20


6TH (Off: 1:19 Next Post: 2:08) Surface: Turf GET PPS: This Racecard
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
1 Mile Turf | 4 Year Olds And Up | STAKES | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
2 Coffee Clique J. Castellano $13.80 $8.80 $5.80
4 Dame Marie I. Ortiz, Jr. $31.60 $13.40
8 Effie Trinket L. Saez $5.40

Times in 5ths: :24 :464 1:102 1:221 1:343

Times in 100ths: :24.00 :46.98 1:10.48 1:22.31 1:34.66

Winning Trainer: Lynch Brian | Owner: Amerman Racing LLC
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Ready Signal, Centre Court, I'm Already Sexy, Miz Ida, Tapicat and Absolute Crackers (IRE)
$2 Exacta (2-4) Paid: $449.00, $2 Trifecta (2-4-8) Paid: $3,820.20, $2 Superfecta (2-4-8-7) Paid: $22,842.60, $2 Pick 3 (2-9-2) 3 Correct Paid: $630.20 Pick 3 Pool $164,954.00 , $2 Daily Double (9-2) Paid: $67.40 Daily Double Pool $145,673.00


7TH (Off: 2:08) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard
Humana Distaff S.
7 Furlongs | 4 Year Olds And Up | STAKES | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
8 Midnight Lucky R. Napravnik $5.20 $4.00 $3.00
1 Street Girl J. Leparoux $13.80 $5.40
5 Scherzinger M. Smith $3.80

Times in 5ths: :223 :45 1:09 1:221

Times in 100ths: :22.74 :45.04 1:09.01 1:22.23

Winning Trainer: Baffert Bob | Owner: Watson, Karl, Pegram, Michael E. and Weitman, Paul

Scratched: Heart Stealer and Saturday Nthe Park
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Judy the Beauty, Speedinthruthecity and Iotapa
$2 Exacta (8-1) Paid: $108.20, $2 Trifecta (8-1-5) Paid: $469.20, $2 Pick 3 (9-2-8) 3 Correct Paid: $249.20 Pick 3 Pool $384,297.00 , $2 Pick 4 (2-9-2-8) 4 Correct Paid: $1,933.60 Pick 4 Pool $566,348.00 , $2 Daily Double (2-8) Paid: $41.40 Daily Double Pool $164,984.00 , $2 Superfecta (8-1-5-3) Paid: $1,107.40

 

[CNOTES]

RACE 11 (Off: 6:24 Next Post: 7:20) Surface: Dirt GET PPS: This Racecard
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands
1 1/4 Miles | 3 Year Olds | STAKES | Open

# HORSE JOCKEY WIN PLACE SHOW
5 California Chrome V. Espinoza $7.00 $5.60 $4.20
17 Commanding Curve S. Bridgmohan $31.80 $15.40
4 Danza J. Bravo $6.00

Times in 5ths: :23 :471 1:114 1:372 2:033

Times in 100ths: :23.04 :47.37 1:11.80 1:37.45 2:03.66

Winning Trainer: Sherman Art | Owner: Coburn, Steven and Martin, Perry

Scratched: Hoppertunity and Pablo Del Monte
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Wicked Strong, Samraat, Dance With Fate, Ride On Curlin, Medal Count, Chitu, We Miss Artie, General a Rod, Intense Holiday, Candy Boy, Uncle Sigh, Tapiture, Harry's Holiday, Vinceremos, Wildcat Red and Vicar's in Trouble
$2 Exacta (5-17) Paid: $340.00, $2 Trifecta (5-17-4) Paid: $3,424.60, $2 Superfecta (5-17-4-20) Paid: $15,383.80, $2 Daily Double (1-5) Paid: $9.00 Daily Double Pool $997,545.00 , $1 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY 13-5) Paid: $5.70 Daily Double Pool $2,397,145.00 , $2 Pick 3 (9-1-5) 3 Correct Paid: $180.60 Pick 3 Pool $1,277,653.00 , 50 CENT Pick 3 (OAKS/WDFRD/DERBY 13-1-5) 3 Correct Paid: $4.25 Pick 3 Pool $782,595.00 , $2 Pick 4 (5-9-1-5/11/21) 4 Correct Paid: $1,577.80 Pick 4 Pool $2,911,605.00 , 50 CENT Pick 5 (8-5-9-1-5/11/21) 5 Correct Paid: $694.95 Pick 5 Pool $1,448,930.00 , 50 CENT Pick 6 (2-8-5-9-1-5/11/21) 6 Correct Paid: $5,574.10 Pick 6 Pool $1,285,653.00 , 50 CENT Pick 6 (2-8-5-9-1-5/11/21) 5 Correct Paid: $47.40 Pick 6 Pool , $1 Super High Five (5-17-4-20-6) Paid: $149,764.70, $2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 1 24-18) Paid: $203.00, $2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 2 3-24) Paid: $358.60, $2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 3 4-24) Paid: $828.20, $2 Future Wager (EXACTA POOL 4 5-24) Paid: $138.00, $2 Future Wager (POOL 1 - 24) Paid: $3.60, $2 Future Wager (POOL 2 - 3) Paid: $63.40, $2 Future Wager (POOL 3 - 4) Paid: $67.60, $2 Future Wager (POOL 4 - 5) Paid: $20.80

 

[CNOTES]

New York-based Derby runners not expected to go in Preakness


LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The three New York-based horses who contested Saturday’s 140th Kentucky Derby were all expected to ship home by Monday, but none of the trio is expected to run back in the May 17 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, according to their connections.

The Wood Memorial first- and second-place finishers Wicked Strong and Samraat finished noses apart in the Derby when running fourth and fifth, respectively, behind California Chrome. Uncle Sigh, who set the early pace, faded to 14th in the 19-horse field.

Wicked Strong and Uncle Sigh were expected to share a van ride Monday back to Belmont Park. Samraat was going to be flown Monday back to New York along with Todd Pletcher-trained runners Danza, We Miss Artie, and Intense Holiday, who will all be based at Belmont Park. Samraat will be based at Aqueduct.

Trainer Jimmy Jerkens said aside from a scrape on a hock, Wicked Strong came out of his fourth-place finish in the Derby relatively unscathed. Jerkens felt his horse ran well considering all the traffic he had in the stretch, especially when Danza cut in front of him at the eighth pole. He was beaten 5 3/4 lengths.

“I was livid. I thought he had a lot of traffic down the lane,” Jerkens said Sunday morning. “Every time he went to go somewhere, he got shut off. I was really happy to see that he got fourth.”

Regarding the Preakness, Jerkens said, “It doesn’t seem like the right thing to do. Who knows? He might do something when we get back home to make me change my mind.”

Trainer Rick Violette said Samraat put in “a typical Samraat performance. He ran his eyeballs out.”

Violette said he would discuss the Preakness with owner Len Riggio but added, “I would lean toward not running.”

Violette said that if for some reason California Chrome didn’t make the Preakness, he would re-think his position.

“We’re as good as anybody else,” Violette said.

Violette said he would consider the Belmont Stakes for Samraat.

Gary Contessa said Uncle Sigh would likely drop back into an allowance race for his next start after getting beat 16 1/4 lengths in the Derby. Equipped with blinkers for the first time, Uncle Sigh was part of the early pace, running a half-mile in 47.37 seconds and six furlongs in 1:11.80 before dropping back approaching the quarter pole.

Contessa said despite adding the blinkers, he did not want Uncle Sigh on the lead.

“Of all the things I didn’t want to happen, I didn’t want to be on the lead,” said Contessa, lamenting the lack of speed shown by others in the race. “I told Irad [Ortiz] to show a little bit of intent to get position, but let the other speed pass you, and you’ll be in perfect position, but the other speed never materialized.”

 

[CNOTES]

Capping the Preakness Stakes top betting favorites

As we get ready for the second leg of the Triple Crown, here is a look at the likely top three Preakness favorites:

California Chrome (-150)

What do we really need to say about this horse? He was the dominating winner of the Kentucky Derby and the clear and likely very overwhelming favorite here. You can’t question that he’s by far the best horse in this field. The challenge, though, is to question whether there is any betting value in what will be a very low price.

The biggest reason for concern is the pace scenario. He likes to sit just off the early pace - pressing it without setting it. In the Derby, that early pace was ridiculously and surprisingly slow for a race of that caliber, so the favorite was able to relax and conserve his energy. By the time he made his move there was no stopping him.

In the Preakness, though, he will face a much more aggressive early pace. Social Inclusion, Bayern and Pablo Del Monte will all be pushing the pace and the top two have the ability to be very fast. If California Chrome can’t relax in the face of that attack there could be issues. He’s clearly the best horse, he’s probably going to win, but our inclination is to look for ways to beat him in my handicapping.

Social Inclusion (+600)

This horse has only raced three times, but it was his second outing that has captured the imaginations of race fans. In an allowance field at Gulfstream with a solid, talented field he absolutely exploded around the final turn to win by 10 lengths.

He jumped up in class next time out to make his stakes debut in the Wood Memorial. He wound up third behind Derby entrants Wicked Strong and Samraat, but it was a tough race and one that this horse could easily move forward from.

If the horse had made the Kentucky Derby field, he would have been bet to win, so he’s an obvious factor in this one - clearly second best. I’m a little concerned about the early pace he could face, but he is training well and is rested, and should be ready for the test. Head-to-head the favorite is likely better, but this is the horse California Chrome should fear most.

Bayern (+1,000)

The similarities between the stories of Bayern and Social Inclusion are striking. Both rose to national attention on the strength of a stunning allowance win second time out - a 15 length romp at Santa Anita in this case. Both came back to finish third in their stakes debut - the Arkansas Derby here. Both are fast and very talented, but immature and inexperienced, and haven’t put it all together yet when it matters.

Bayern has had another race, though. When it looked like the Derby wasn’t going to work for him, trainer Bob Baffert instead entered him in the Derby Trial at CHurchill Downs. He won that race by a nose, but was placed second after a lousy ride from jockey Rosie Napravnik that earned her a three day suspension.

This horse is a touch behind Social Inclusion and the odds reflect that, but he has been working exceptionally well and will have benefitted from the extra race. The distance and an early pace are concerns, but if the horse does go off at or near this price then you’d have to factor him prominently in your exotic bets.

 

[CNOTES]

Filly Ria Antonia to run against boys

May 12, 2014



BALTIMORE (AP) - A filly is going to challenge the boys in the Preakness for the first time since 2009 when Rachel Alexandra won.

Ria Antonia will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who guided Rachel Alexandra to victory. Ria Antonia is coming off a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 at Churchill Downs, where she has been training.

For the first time in the Preakness, a filly, a female jockey and a female trainer will all compete at the same time. Rosie Napravnik will ride Bayern while trainer Linda Rice will saddle Kid Cruz.

Ria Antonia's trainer, Tom Amoss, said Monday the idea to run her against the boys came from her owners. He said she has passed all the tests to take on the challenge. She joined his barn three days after the Oaks, when the owners decided to switch to Amoss from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

''I don't know what happened in the Oaks, but I like the way she looks now,'' Amoss said. ''We have a healthy, sound horse and we are ready to roll the dice.''

Amoss said he sees the Preakness as Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome versus everyone else. He says if California Chrome runs his race in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness then he will win, but if not, it opens up opportunities for other horses, including Ria Antonia.

Ria Antonia is scheduled to jog at Churchill Downs on Tuesday and arrive in Baltimore from Louisville, Kentucky, on Wednesday. The 139th Preakness is Saturday.

It will be the third time a Triple Crown race has had a filly, a female trainer and a female jockey.

In the 1984 Kentucky Derby, Patricia Cooksey rode So Vague to an 11th-place finish, one spot ahead of Biloxi Indian, trained by Diane Carpenter. Fillies Life's Magic was eighth and Althea was 19th.

In the 1996 Belmont Stakes, Hall of Fame jockey Julie Krone rode South Salem, who was eased; Cynthia Reese trained In Contention to a ninth-place finish; and filly My Flag was third.

California Chrome galloped 1 1/4 miles Monday at Churchill and then departed on a flight to Baltimore.

''Everything is perfect,'' said Alan Sherman, assistant to his father and trainer Art Sherman, who will rejoin the colt in Maryland.

Also on the same flight were Preakness contenders Ride On Curlin, who finished seventh in the Derby with Borel on board; General a Rod, who was 11th in the Derby; and Pablo Del Monte, who didn't run in the Derby because the owners didn't like the No. 20 post position.

 

[CNOTES]

California Chrome checks into Stall 40

May 12, 2014



BALTIMORE (AP) - Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome has arrived at Pimlico Race Course, where he will try to keep his Triple Crown bid alive in Saturday's Preakness.

After being transported on a chartered flight from Kentucky, California Chrome settled into prestigious Stall 40 at Pimlico.

Stall 40 is the traditional home to the Kentucky Derby winner. Listed above the stall is a list of horses that have stayed there, including Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

Alan Sherman, assistant trainer of California Chrome, says, ''It's awesome. I was looking at the list of horses that have been in that stall. It's quite unbelievable.''

Sherman says the horse had no problems with the flight and is ready to resume his bid at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

 

[CNOTES]

Preakness Stakes betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks

If California Chrome could save time in a bottle, the first thing he'd probably do would be to fire the clockers at Churchill Downs. The Chromie's time was one of the slowest ever for a Kentucky Derby winner a couple of weeks ago.

But, despite the pedestrian time of 2:03.66 (slowest winning time on a fast track since 1974) we're still pretty high on California Chrome's chances to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed pulled off the hat trick in 1978. That's mainly because the rest of the three-year-old class is mediocre, save for the filly Untapable, who remains steadfast against running against the males.

Here's a look at the 10-horse field for the 139th running of the Preakness at Pimlico Saturday:

1. Dynamic Impact (jockey-M. Mena, odds-12-1): Broke his maiden in March and then came back to win the Illinois Derby posting a Beyer number of 102. He's quick and improving but seems easily outclassed here.

2. General a Rod (J. Castellano, 15-1): Endured a troubled-trip in the Kentucky Derby, the first time in his six career starts that he didn't hit the board. Jockey Joel Rosario opted to take the mount on Ride On Curlin, which shows you which horse he likes better.

3. California Chrome (V. Espinoza, 3-5): The California-bred carries a five-race winning streak into the second jewel of the Triple Crown and looms the clear choice. The key will be how Espinoza rates him as there is plenty of early speed in the race and CC likes to be near the front. Five Kentucky Derby winners have won the Preakness in the past dozen years.

4. Ring Weekend (A. Garcia, 20-1): Once a favorite in the Kentucky Derby futures pools, this colt figured to be one of the top contenders for the Run for the Roses after his win in the Tampa Bay Derby. That's when things went downhill as he was routed in the Calder Derby by nine lengths as the heavy chalk and then came down with a fever. Well-bred, but would be a surprise.

5. Bayern (R. Naparavnik, 10-1): Disappointed as the 8/5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby after setting an easy pace. In his next start, he won the Derby Trial, albeit against a soft field, but was disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. Trainer Bob Baffert is taking the blinkers off his colt again looking to get this one to run straight. Has good early speed.

6. Ria Antonia (C. Borel, 30-1): Here's one filly unafraid to run with the boys. Took sixth in the Kentucky Oaks but could hardly see the winner (Untapable) at the finish. Best run was a second at the Santa Anita Oaks and is a decided long shot with little hope of becoming the sixth filly to win the Preakness.

7. Kid Cruz (J. Pimentel, 20-1): Only runner in the field to have raced at Pimlico and it was a win in the Tesio Stakes in mid-April. Trainer Linda Rice, a favorite of horseplayers at Saratoga in the summer, is just the 15th female to saddle a Preakness entry. His highest speed figures, however, pales in comparison to the contenders.

8. Social Inclusion (L. Contreras, 5-1): The speed gurus rate this lightly-raced colt strongly but a bruised foot could hamper his chances. Still, he was third in the Wood setting the pace as the 8/5 favorite and was beaten only by well-meant Kentucky Derby runners Wicked Strong and Samraat. If he's healthy he should be fresh and he set the track record at Gulfstream for 1 1/16th miles in March. A true threat.

9. Pablo Del Monte (J. Sanchez, 20-1): Drew into the Kentucky Derby when Hoppertunity was scratched but trainer Wesley Ward decided against running him especially when he was going to have to start from Post 20. Took third in the Bluegrass Stakes and has good early speed but his speed figures are not impressive.

10. Ride On Curlin (J. Rosario, 10-1): Could be the wise guy's choice after a troubled second in the Arkansas Derby and even more problems in the Kentucky Derby where he finished a hard-charging seventh by just six lengths after an inexcusable rail ride by Calvin Borel. One of just three horses in the field to come back after running in the Derby and he has had valid excuses.

Picks: California Chrome, Social Inclusion, Ride on Curlin, General a Rod

 

[CNOTES]

NHL
Dunkel

NY Rangers at Montreal
The Canadiens open up the series at home today where they are 9-1 in their last 10 games versus the Rangers. Montreal is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 17

Game 1-2: NY Rangers at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.818; Montreal 12.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-130); Under




NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 17

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NY RANGERS (53-37-0-6, 112 pts.) at MONTREAL (54-30-0-9, 117 pts.) - 5/17/2014, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 67-83 ATS (-40.0 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
MONTREAL is 54-39 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 31-21 ATS (+0.9 Units) second half of the season this season.
MONTREAL is 27-18 ATS (+5.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MONTREAL is 17-12 ATS (+30.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 22-14 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
NY RANGERS are 17-10 ATS (+6.4 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 12-7 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games after a division game this season.
NY RANGERS are 11-4 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 7-3 (+4.3 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-3-0 straight up against NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+6.2 Units)

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NHL

Saturday, May 17

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
NY RANGERS vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Rangers last 6 games
NY Rangers are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home