The Sports Cruncher's Week #9 NCAA Football Thread

[Chevyjsport]

How u feel on minnesota and Ohio state games

 

[born2gamble]

What do you think of the Toledo-Umass game? I'm liking Toledo a lot, just wondering.

 

[thecruncher]

Will answer those questions tomorrow, fellas.

Here are the updated Power Ratings, and I've modified how they're created differently than last week. It's a fairly advanced system (I hope, lol, though it seems pretty damn easy to argue with the fact that Marshall is ranked a hair above Oregon, I must say). Win % plays a very small part. Current injuries or team statistical trends are not included (whereas they are for regular line making).

 

[born2gamble]

Will answer those questions tomorrow, fellas.

Here are the updated Power Ratings, and I've modified how they're created differently than last week. It's a fairly advanced system (I hope, lol, though it seems pretty damn easy to argue with the fact that Marshall is ranked a hair above Oregon, I must say). Win % plays a very small part. Current injuries or team statistical trends are not included (whereas they are for regular line making).

I have South Alabama as a huge favorite over Troy, and going by your stats you do as well.

 

[sjcolumbus]

Cruncher,

Any value in Arkansas - 3 (I can buy it down to -2) and over / under of 57.5 (can be bought down to 56.5)?

 

[bully07]

a lot of games
how many units are you put om it ? eachs game ?

 

[sjcolumbus]

He rates his plays based on units. Usually they say 2 units, 1.5 units, 1 unit, 3/5 unit and 1/2 unit.

 

[thecruncher]

Cruncher,

Any value in Arkansas - 3 (I can buy it down to -2) and over / under of 57.5 (can be bought down to 56.5)?

Not much value at -3, especially with juice higher than 10 cents. Over 57.5 still worth a 1/2 to 3/5th unit play.

 

[thecruncher]

a lot of games
how many units are you put om it ? eachs game ?

My average play so far has been for 0.8% of my bankroll. High volume of plays, betting everything I think has solid +EV, for a small amount of bankroll each, minimizing risk.

 

[thecruncher]

How u feel on minnesota and Ohio state games

Not showing any line value in the Minny game, and only a little on PSU in the other game.

 

[thecruncher]

What do you think of the Toledo-Umass game? I'm liking Toledo a lot, just wondering.

I do show a little value on TOL, but not enough for me to play on.

 

[thecruncher]

Georgia Tech RB Zach Laskey expected to miss the game Saturday against PITT. That play was right on the threshold of playability. I'd pass on it now.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit each
BC @ WAKE UNDER 41
MICH @ MSU UNDER 49.5
VAN @ MIZZ UNDER 47.5

 

[thecruncher]

1 UNIT: UNLV @ USU Under 51

USU down to 3rd string QB, and he did not look good against CSU. UNLV does have a garbage pass def., though. Expecting a Crush N' Cruise 2nd half.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: MISS @ LSU Over 44

 

[thecruncher]

1/2 UNIT: MD @ WIS Over 57.5

Sheesh, moved up twice while I was trying to get the play in.

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit: TTU @ TCU Over 70.5

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit: RUTG @ NEB Over 57

 

[sdf]

1/2 UNIT: MD @ WIS Over 57.5

Sheesh, moved up twice while I was trying to get the play in.

me too....

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: UTEP @ UTSA Under 52.5