Christmas Vacation Bowl: Hawaii vs Middle Tennessee
Key Matchup #1: MTU's run offense versus Hawaii's run defense. MTU is probably known by most college football fans/bettors as a good offensive team with a great passing game when the coach's son, Brent Stockstill, is healthy and playing (he missed most of the final 4 games with an injury). But did you know that MTU's running game was much, much better than their passing game this year? The highest passing score (by my grading system) that MTU achieved in a game this year as +60, while they had 5 running scores higher than that, with 4 of those 5 being above 100. I rank their run offense #21, and their passing offense #77. MTU had some of their best games on the ground versus some of their conference foes with above average run defenses too. 3 of those 100+ running scores games were against Louisiana Tech (47th), Western Kentucky (#8) and Charlotte (57th). Hawaii has a pretty strong +71% correlation of pass defense scores versus opponent pass offense ranks, which doesn't bode well for their them if Stockstill is anywhere near his usual form. Hawaii's defense is near equally bad against both the run and pass, so MTU should have a good day on offense any which way they choose to go about it, and especially with the run.
Key Matchup #2: Hawaii's run offense versus MTU's run defense. Hawaii is a below average offensive team as well, with a 93rd ranked offense versus 114th for the defense. They are better running the ball (76th) than passing (95th). Run defense happens to be the weakness of MTU's defense (107th, versus 81st against the pass). So the Rainbow Warriors are going to need to get the ground game going to both score points and limit MTU's number of possessions. MTU had only one game of run defense in their final 6, versus 3 in their first 5, so maybe the rest will have done them so good. MTU's pass defense, which had been really good in the first half of the season, faded to their 81st ranking down the stretch.
In sum: I think MTU's run offense is the one thing you can count on in this game. Hawaii may be able to shorten the game running the ball, which is creating some value on the Under with my projections. Hawaii having a below average offense also means that a total in the 70s isn't justified either, in spite of their bad defense. I'm not going to bet that Under lean, though, not in a game that MTU is playing in, with their vastly better offense than defense.
I think that because it's the only game of the day and the current number on MTU is a good one for teasing, I'll make a little 1/2 unit action play teasing them down with Boise State. Teasing college football is generally considered a dodo move, but I've done pretty well picking my spots with them this year. But another warning -- the higher the total in the game, the less value and more variance you're likely to see on that tease as well, so buyer beware.
http://imgur.com/a/A0FDv
Key Matchup #1: MTU's run offense versus Hawaii's run defense. MTU is probably known by most college football fans/bettors as a good offensive team with a great passing game when the coach's son, Brent Stockstill, is healthy and playing (he missed most of the final 4 games with an injury). But did you know that MTU's running game was much, much better than their passing game this year? The highest passing score (by my grading system) that MTU achieved in a game this year as +60, while they had 5 running scores higher than that, with 4 of those 5 being above 100. I rank their run offense #21, and their passing offense #77. MTU had some of their best games on the ground versus some of their conference foes with above average run defenses too. 3 of those 100+ running scores games were against Louisiana Tech (47th), Western Kentucky (#8) and Charlotte (57th). Hawaii has a pretty strong +71% correlation of pass defense scores versus opponent pass offense ranks, which doesn't bode well for their them if Stockstill is anywhere near his usual form. Hawaii's defense is near equally bad against both the run and pass, so MTU should have a good day on offense any which way they choose to go about it, and especially with the run.
Key Matchup #2: Hawaii's run offense versus MTU's run defense. Hawaii is a below average offensive team as well, with a 93rd ranked offense versus 114th for the defense. They are better running the ball (76th) than passing (95th). Run defense happens to be the weakness of MTU's defense (107th, versus 81st against the pass). So the Rainbow Warriors are going to need to get the ground game going to both score points and limit MTU's number of possessions. MTU had only one game of run defense in their final 6, versus 3 in their first 5, so maybe the rest will have done them so good. MTU's pass defense, which had been really good in the first half of the season, faded to their 81st ranking down the stretch.
In sum: I think MTU's run offense is the one thing you can count on in this game. Hawaii may be able to shorten the game running the ball, which is creating some value on the Under with my projections. Hawaii having a below average offense also means that a total in the 70s isn't justified either, in spite of their bad defense. I'm not going to bet that Under lean, though, not in a game that MTU is playing in, with their vastly better offense than defense.
I think that because it's the only game of the day and the current number on MTU is a good one for teasing, I'll make a little 1/2 unit action play teasing them down with Boise State. Teasing college football is generally considered a dodo move, but I've done pretty well picking my spots with them this year. But another warning -- the higher the total in the game, the less value and more variance you're likely to see on that tease as well, so buyer beware.
http://imgur.com/a/A0FDv
