Might as well post my one play for tomorrow.
GT -3.5 vs VT (I played a half unit at -110 and another half at +105) in the "Bowl of Bad Tech Support"
Beamer announced his retirement a week ago. I don't it's going to give VT any kind of edge in this contest. It's a home team for GT and both teams come to play. VT has one win against an above average team this year; NC St., and that was at home for the Hokies. Even more disappointing has been the GT, with just 2 wins versus VT's 3. There aren't many easy wins in the ACC, depending on your schedule, and GT has had a brutal one the past two months, where every team they've faced except for one (Virginia), has spent time in the top 25 this season. GT held their own in most of these games, losing by more than 8 points only once, to Duke in week #4. And then, of course, they upset Florida State. And then, of course, they crapped the bed last week losing to Virginia. VT isn't chopped liver, but they're an easier opponent than GT has faced on average. VT's defense hasn't played up to its billing this year, but their run defense has played better over their last four. Overall, I project enough small edges for GT to add up to about a 10 point win for them.
GT -3.5 vs VT (I played a half unit at -110 and another half at +105) in the "Bowl of Bad Tech Support"
Beamer announced his retirement a week ago. I don't it's going to give VT any kind of edge in this contest. It's a home team for GT and both teams come to play. VT has one win against an above average team this year; NC St., and that was at home for the Hokies. Even more disappointing has been the GT, with just 2 wins versus VT's 3. There aren't many easy wins in the ACC, depending on your schedule, and GT has had a brutal one the past two months, where every team they've faced except for one (Virginia), has spent time in the top 25 this season. GT held their own in most of these games, losing by more than 8 points only once, to Duke in week #4. And then, of course, they upset Florida State. And then, of course, they crapped the bed last week losing to Virginia. VT isn't chopped liver, but they're an easier opponent than GT has faced on average. VT's defense hasn't played up to its billing this year, but their run defense has played better over their last four. Overall, I project enough small edges for GT to add up to about a 10 point win for them.
And tonight could have been worse, lol. Because BGSU missed an extra point I had to sweat one more touchdown in that game hitting the baby Polish middle against me, as I originally had a couple units on the Over 75.5, but then got off of that on the Under 75 when the weather forecast worsened. Reallllly sweated that, lol.
Week 10 results. I accidentally saved my cheat sheet week 11 over week 10 without renaming it so I lost the closing lines saved there. Most of them I had down or still remembered, but there's a few ball park guesses near the bottom. My record is not forum official anymore as I only posted my plays with my cheat sheet on Thursday. If posted plays are not made with currently available lines then a record does not count. If mods would rather not have me post my results I understand and would be fine with that.
The top recommended plays when the lines came out were Old Dominion, UCLA, TULN @ ARMY UNDER, TEM @ USF UNDER, MIA @ UNC OVER, ARK @ M-OH UNDER, BGSU @ WMU OVER (bought off it the other way when weather forecast worsened), TULSA @ CIN OVER, AND NIU @ BUFF UNDER (only gained 1 to 1.5 points in value so didn't buy any back for small middle try, unfortunately). All lines played are listed on the sheet above. Any other listed play above is for either a half or 1 unit. I always recommend buying an extra unit or two on the top plays to set up some buy back middles, as the more I like a line the more likely it is the line is going to move how I think it will. Middles were a good part of last week's success, hitting four of them.
Out of 27 side plays recommended this week (volume, baby, lol) I have only two of them where the line has moved against me a full point. One of them is Georgia Tech. I never like that (even though last week I did very well on "Me versus the Market" plays, lol). If Paul Johnson is indeed going to give a lot of playing time to youngsters/not focus on winning out the rest of the season (information I only read this morning), then yeah, it's not a good spot to back them. If they don't cover, that's gambling, baby -- small weekday holes are what big Saturdays are meant to take care of, lol. With my volume, no big deal!
I liked USC at -14.5 when it opened for a medium-small play, but would pass on the current -17. No recommended play on the total either.
Reasons to like USC: Balanced offenses are hard to defend, especially when your defense is below average versus both the run and pass, like Colorado. USC's rush defense should really limit a poor Colorado run offense. Colorado capable of losing big at home, as demonstrated by the 32 point loss to Stanford last week.
Reasons to like Colorado: Colorado has a passing game with just enough competence to test a USC pass defense that has been fairly average over the past month. USC allowed over 300 yards passing for the first time last week versus Arizona. Colorado's pass offense ranks 82nd compared to Arizona's 62nd. USC maybe a little complacent after three straight wins in a look ahead spot with Oregon and UCLA coming up. COLO coming off of a bad home loss to Stanford last week will have the motivational edge at home.
This could be a sandwich game for USC, but knowing you're the only game of the night nation-wide means both teams will probably start the game fired up.
Reasons to like USC: Balanced offenses are hard to defend, especially when your defense is below average versus both the run and pass, like Colorado. USC's rush defense should really limit a poor Colorado run offense. Colorado capable of losing big at home, as demonstrated by the 32 point loss to Stanford last week.
Reasons to like Colorado: Colorado has a passing game with just enough competence to test a USC pass defense that has been fairly average over the past month. USC allowed over 300 yards passing for the first time last week versus Arizona. Colorado's pass offense ranks 82nd compared to Arizona's 62nd. USC maybe a little complacent after three straight wins in a look ahead spot with Oregon and UCLA coming up. COLO coming off of a bad home loss to Stanford last week will have the motivational edge at home.
This could be a sandwich game for USC, but knowing you're the only game of the night nation-wide means both teams will probably start the game fired up.
Just one buy back before bedtime. The MIA @ UNC total has gone up enough that I think, if anything, it may shimmy down a bit tomorrow with buy backs. I recommended 3 units on the Over 58.5 when it opened at BookMaker. I'm buying back 1.5 units on the Under 67.5 (-105 5D). Biggest middle window of the day tomorrow, would be nice to hit to get back what I've been bleeding away each day leading up to Saturday, lol.
I'm going to try and squeeze at least another point out of some lines before the other buy backs tomorrow. I think ODU may go above 7 (though I suspect it will probably stay where it is), and the 3 unit Unders I have may still go a bit lower, judging by my lines.
I'm going to try and squeeze at least another point out of some lines before the other buy backs tomorrow. I think ODU may go above 7 (though I suspect it will probably stay where it is), and the 3 unit Unders I have may still go a bit lower, judging by my lines.
Adding for 0.6% play: ARST @ ULM Over 56.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: GAST @ TXST Under 66 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MSST +8 vs ALA (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: OKST -13 @ ISU
Adding for 0.6% play: MINN @ IOWA UNDER 45.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MEM +7 @ HOU (-115)
Adding for 0.6% play: AUB PICK VS UGA
Adding for 0.6% play: GAST @ TXST Under 66 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MSST +8 vs ALA (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: OKST -13 @ ISU
Adding for 0.6% play: MINN @ IOWA UNDER 45.5 (-105 5D)
Adding for 0.6% play: MEM +7 @ HOU (-115)
Adding for 0.6% play: AUB PICK VS UGA
