~The Seattle Seahawks & NewEngland Patriots Super Bowl XLIX~

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Thanks alot for the book info MrH I would really love to learn more if possible about how do use the calculator, as I'm always looking to learn from the best. Any chance of that?
~Dan Gordon's Beat the Sports Books ~ Explains it all!!! There is way to much info to post here on forum Grindstone, check out book online, and if you are really interested, buy the book is excellent reading Grindstone Combined Super Bowl odds Taken from article off the internet

Combining (averaging) these three percentage values gives the Seahawks to win Super Bowl XLIX.
2015 Super Bowl odds
TeamElo oddsDVOA oddsVegas oddsAverage
Baltimore Ravens2%3.5%2.4%2.6%
Seattle Seahawks35.0%26.2%29.4%30.2%
Denver Broncos14.0%16.0%14.3%14.8%
Green Bay Packers10%15.7%14.3%13.3%
Dallas Cowboys5%6.6%10.5%7.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers4%3.9%6.7%4.9%
New England Patriots22.0%23.0%25%23.3%
Indianapolis Colts2%1.8%3.4%2.4%
Cincinnati Bengals2%1%2.4%1.8%
Carolina Panthers1%0.9%2.4%1.4%
Detroit Lions1%0.7%2.4%1.4%
Arizona Cardinals2%0.6%1.5%1.4%




Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

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Elo oddsDVOA oddsVegas odds
what do these numbers mean in a percentage??? the % of that team to win the SB,...? when are these numbers given out, beginning of the season?? or playoff time???
 
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Sent to me by HappyDadster 13 Jan 28 2015

He's a Total Loser, Just Like the Seahawks' Fake Fans

If Richard Kevin Sherman didn’t butter himself up to the media as much as he does, maybe they’d speak the truth about him. Contrary to how he’s marketed himself, he’s not the first person in the world to get an athletic scholarship to Stanford. And he wouldn’t have gained admission as a regular student. Sorry, but not even a 4+ GPA makes up for a 1060 (on a retry) SAT score. So let’s not make him and his psych degree out to be the next Einstein. It’s annoying a) how he talks trash to opponents during the game, b) how much he taunts opposing teams’ fans during road games, c) how he lingers on the field to talk more trash and rub it in after the game, d) how he’s always willing to go to the podium to speak to the press after the game. Items a through d happen during every win. But when they lose, only items a and b occur. When they lose, he immediately runs off the field and doesn’t make himself available to the press. If you’re really going to run your mouth, you should stay on the field afterwards and take your medicine. You should also speak to the press and take some responsibility. Then again, he is a marketing whiz as Kraft said, so he’s acting like the classless, idiotic Seattle fanbase. These morons will disappear again once they start losing.
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Stats vs Facts, Seahawks vs Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX

Posted by
Jonathan Nardone, Twitter Handle: @JNardone87

Think about it. Back in 2012, every team in the National Football League had the opportunity to draft Russell Wilson, some teams even had two chances. After wading through the rough spots to be drafted in the third round, Wilson has placed his Seahawks in position to attempt to become back to back Super Bowl champions. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is in that same boat. Not getting drafted until the sixth round, Brady has shown his maturity over the years by leading the Patriots to their sixth Super Bowl since 2002.

Could Russell Wilson be turning into one of the greatest clutch quarterbacks in the league? It’s very possible. After shrugging off four interceptions to lead the Seahawks to three touchdowns late in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Green Bay Packers, it’s a fair question to ask. The Seahawks are the first team to make back-to-back Super Bowls since Tom Brady and his Patriots did it back in 2004 and 2005. These two great quarterbacks have only faced each other one other time. It was back in Wilson’s rookie season in 2012, Wilson hit Sidney Rice on a 46-yard touchdown pass with 1:18 left to play as the Seahawks rallied for 14 points in the final 7:31 of the game to beat the Patriots 24-23.
Russell Wilson has put together three amazing seasons to kick start his career. Over the past few seasons, Wilson has produced six playoff wins to just one loss giving him a .857 winning percentage. Through three seasons, Wilson has compiled a record of 10-0 against former Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and looks to extend his streak to 11. With the Seahawks focusing on the ground and pound, Wilson isn’t expected to air the ball out quite as much as traditional pocket passer Tom Brady should. Wilson has thrown for 1,305 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions in those seven playoff games.

Look for Marshawn Lynch to get multiple flags for inappropriate behavior. Expected to see the bulk of the work, Lynch could be asked to keep the ball early and often to keep the Patriots offense on the sideline. Over the past two weeks, the Patriots have faced off against 47 rushing attempts which they have allowed opposing backs to record 4.6 yards per carry. That has led to 219 total rushing yards with teams averaging over 109.5 yards per game but just 1 rushing touchdown in those two games. Wilson’s top target Doug Baldwin is expected to be shadowed by cornerback Darrelle Revis who has really stepped his game up over the past few weeks and is playing like that top caliber shut down corner he’s known to be. The Patriots allowed Joe Flacco to post 292 yards and 4 touchdowns but stopped Andrew Luck to just 126 yards and 2 interceptions. With 4 interceptions in the last two games, the Patriots defenders have become ball hogs and could make it difficult for Wilson through the air.

Tom Brady won each of his first three Super Bowl appearances back in 2002, 2004 and 2005 but since then lost his last two most recent trips in 2007 and 2012. Brady has compiled some incredible stats in his 20 career playoff wins which are the most by a quarterback in league history. He boasts a .714 winning percentage which is the highest of all quarterbacks with at least 20 career playoff starts. Airing the ball out time after time and being successful doing so, he has produced 7,017 passing yards which has lead to 49 touchdowns and just 24 interceptions in those 20 playoff wins.
Over the past two weeks the Seahawks have been stout against opposing quarterbacks. They have not allowed more than 250 yards through the air, limiting both Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers to just three passing touchdowns combined while allowing an average of just 19.5 points per game in that span. The Seahawks have allowed back to back rushers to eclipse the 70-plus yard mark while allowing teams to rush for 130-plus yards in back to back weeks. Opposing running backs are averaging 4.3 yards per carry against the Seahawks, none have not found the end zone yet but with Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount rushing for 143 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, it may be hard to keep that big back out of the end zone if the Patriots get in close to the goal line. With Richard Sherman dealing with an elbow injury, it could be something the Patriots take advantage of. They may line-up physical tight end Rob Gronkowski outside more to use his size and ability to out-muscle a somewhat limited Sherman. Sherman has allowed just 1 touchdown this postseason and has been able to record 2 interceptions in the past 2 weeks as quarterbacks have tried to test him down the field. Creating pressure could be a issue for the Seahawks as they have only been able to record 3 sacks over the past two weeks. With Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen running a ton of quick slants and underneath routes, Brady doesn’t give opposing defenses the time to get after the passer.

As Russell Wilson attempts to lead his Seahawks to their first back-to-back world championship, Tom Brady is attempting to steer his Patriots to their record breaking sixth Super Bowl win. Either way it goes, this game should be one for the books.

Posted by HARRYtheHAT

Just a outstanding write-up by Jonathan Nardone, Twitter Handle: @JNardone87
 
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~Dan Gordon's Beat the Sports Books ~ Explains it all!!! There is way to much info to post here on forum Grindstone, check out book online, and if you are really interested, buy the book is excellent reading Grindstone Combined Super Bowl odds Taken from article off the internet

Combining (averaging) these three percentage values gives the Seahawks to win Super Bowl XLIX.
2015 Super Bowl odds
TeamElo oddsDVOA oddsVegas oddsAverage
Baltimore Ravens2%3.5%2.4%2.6%
Seattle Seahawks35.0%26.2%29.4%30.2%
Denver Broncos14.0%16.0%14.3%14.8%
Green Bay Packers10%15.7%14.3%13.3%
Dallas Cowboys5%6.6%10.5%7.4%
Pittsburgh Steelers4%3.9%6.7%4.9%
New England Patriots22.0%23.0%25%23.3%
Indianapolis Colts2%1.8%3.4%2.4%
Cincinnati Bengals2%1%2.4%1.8%
Carolina Panthers1%0.9%2.4%1.4%
Detroit Lions1%0.7%2.4%1.4%
Arizona Cardinals2%0.6%1.5%1.4%



Hårr¥THëHÄT


MrH gonna invest in the book no doubt. Do you have any action or leans at all on the Big game???
 

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I got my start by studying Bob Martins methods with fellow handicappers J.J. Bascus and System Smitty Ryan many years ago and spending countless hours reverse-engineering what I could of his systems Grindstone..The strategy of Bob Martin, appealed to me as a finance manager as well as a NFL handicapper having studied financial aspects of money management in wagering in NFL games and provided the foundation of my interest in predictive analytic and sports analysis as a tool for betting on NFL games. Using both J.J. Bascus power rating and Bob Martins money management has worked for me over years in a different perspective in handicapping.
Generally, I'm disappointed at the quality of books available on sports betting Grindstone . Some reports analyze the critical question of what enables football games to cover the point spread teams. The Reports are based on a study of every NFL game and every game played over the past 26 seasons (1988 through 2013) and reveal characteristics that have led to success vs. the point spread. These Reports reveal facts, not theories!. Utilizing comparative analysis, the Method enables you to determine an accurate line between two teams using basic team stats (rushing, passing, points, etc.). You need only to know basic math and a pocket calculator will greatly speed up the handicapping process. Simply do the math and compare the result to the point spread to determine the selection and its strength. Among the books available, might be, Dan Gordon's is certainly one of the better ones Grindstone . He provides good handicapping information and avoids many mathematical downfalls that progress , the work of other authors. Beat the Sports Books is a worthwhile read for those who like to bet NFL games against the spread. I can easily imagine a better book on the topic, but such a book or analysis on point spreads hasn't been published yet. In the meantime, this may be the best one on the market Grindstone.
See you next season of NFL here on RX Grindstone and good luck to you on Superbowl.....
Hårr¥THëHÄT





Harry,

I agree Gordon's book is good. His concepts are very easy to follow to 'rate' teams and anyone can use it. FYI for anyone reading generally it is as follows.

1) He starts each season predicting how many games a team will win. For ex NE expected to win 11 games, BUF 8 etc Most betting sites also provide predicted # of wins for each team

2) He has historical data for 20+ yrs showing the avg pts teams that win 12, 11, 10 games etc score /game ( Ex a 10 win team scores 24 pts on avg/game)

3) He then just takes the difference for the two teams in each game and adds hfa.

He makes some adj up and down depending on actual performance and there are a few other factors he considers during the year but that is the gist of his model. Not a bad starting pt. I'm sure others also predict points for, points allowed at the start of the season to check the value in lines.

Not too hard to do and gives you a lot more reassurance in your predictions. Anyway, to all reading Gordon's book was pretty good

Cheers and enjoy the SB today,

jgm
 

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