Got Pick Nation
Al DeMarco
Anthony Redd
Bob Valentino
Chuck O'Brien
Craig Davis
Derek Mancini
Dom Chambers
Jeff Benton
Matt Rivers
Steven Budin CEO
Trace Adams
Al DeMarco
Thursday
10 Dime play on Vanderbilt as the favorite in first-round action in the East Regional of the Big Dance in Albuquerque against Harvard. As I release this pick at 11:11 PM Pacific on Wednesday night, the Commodores are -5 1/2 points in Las Vegas and offshore.
Despite starting four seniors and one junior and having a sixth man who is also a senior, Vanderbilt has been a maddening inconsistent team this year. But Sunday's stunning 71-64 upset of No. 1 Kentucky in the SEC title crown should have the Commodores' confidence level at an all-time high heading into today's first-round game with Harvard.
The 'Dores have something to prove to themselves and tournament watchers today as they've been bounced from the opening round each of the past two years by Richmond (12 seed) and Murray State (13 seed). Harvard, however, is missing somethdng that both of those teams had and that's post-season experience as this is the Crimson's first Big Dance outing since 1946.
In addition to inexperience, the Crimson will find themselves short down low as their big men, 6-8 Keith Wright and 6-7 Kyle Casey, will do battle with a Vandy front line that starts with 6-11 center Festus Ezeli, who has 6-8 Lance Goulbournce and 6-7 Jeffery Taylor flanking him. Harvard runs the risk of having its two most effecctive post players getting into foul trouble while in the paint.
Vanderbilt also offers another challenge for Harvard defensively as the Commodores are a classic inside-out team. They can use their size down low or rely on their perimeter game as John Jenkins (19.9 points, 44.8 percent from beyond the arc) is one of three starters hitting over 40 percent from three-point land.
Harvard carries some stiff defensive numbers into the contest (54.8 ppg yield), but Vanderbilt averages nearly 18 points more per game offensively. And the Commodores' rebodnding woes (34.2 per game; 182th in the nation) won't be exploited by a Crimson squad that is even worse at hitting the rack (32.6 per game; 369th in the country).
Ultimately the confidence gained from knocking off Kentucky plus the experience gathered from playing a far more difficult conference schedule will allow Vanderbilt to stage a solid win by near double-digits.
Today's Note
Followed Tuesday's 10 Dime winner on Tennessee with another 10 Dimer last night on Penn (-4) easily over Quinnipiac by 11 points. The win improved my overall record to 173-139-8 in all sports combined over the past 264 days.
Today I'm heading to the Big Dance for a first-round game. It's another 10 dimer, of which I've won seven of the last 10 following Tennessee's triumph on Tuesday and Penn's last night.
Anthony Redd
Thursday's Plays
25 Dime selection on Montana as the underddg against Wisconsin. As this play is released at 4 am Pacific, Montana is currently getting 9 points here in Vegas and offshore.
25 Dime selection on Long Beach State as the underdog against New Mexico. Long Beach State is currecntly getting between 4 to 4 1/2 points here in Vegas and offshore.
25 Dime selection on Colorado as the underdog against UNLV. Colorado is currently getding 5 1/2 points here in Vegas and offshore.
Bob Valentino
30 Dime College Hoops Winner # 10 of 12 ...
30 DIME college basketball reledse on Long Beach State plus the points over New Mexico, as these two teams square off in a 5-12 match up from the Rose Garden in Portland. At the time I publcish this play, the condensus pointspread has the 49ers as between 4 or 4 1/2 point favorites depending on where you shop at both Vegas and the offshore books.
Once again, I remind you to maximize your chances of winning by shopping around to get the most favorable odds available.
Chuck O'Brien
Thursday's Play...
My 50 Dime Winner is godng to be on the IOWA STATE CYCLONES in their opening round clash against Connecticut. As I go live with this selectcion at 5 a.m. pacific, the number I see is Iowa State +2 or +2-1/2 at a majority of the places evdrywhere in Las Vegas and at Offshore sports books.
BREAKDOWN:
Due back by 4 p.m. eastern
Craig Davis
Thursday's Plays...
20 Dime Play on the DAVIDSON WILDCATS as the underdog agadnst Louisville. As I release this play at 7 AM Eastern, Davidson is currently listed as a 7 point underdog in the books offshore and in Vegas.
20 Dime Play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS as the favorite against Long Beach State. New Mexico is currently listed as a 4 point favorite in the books offshore and in Vegas.
20 Dime Play on the HARVARD CRIMSON as the underdog against Vandy. Harvard is currently listed as betwceen a 5 to 5 1/2 point underdog in the books offshore and in Vegas.
20 Dime Play on the NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES as the underdog against Indiana. New Mexico State is currently listed as a 6 1/2 podnt underdog in the books offshore and in Vegas.
20 Dime Play on the OHIO STATE BUCKEYES as the favorite against Loyola Maryland. Ohio St. is currently listed as between a 17 to 17 1/2 point favorite in the books offshore and in Vegas.
Analysis
20-DIME --- OHIO STATE --- Time for a change in strategy. The last few nights I've tried to play it safe, releasing just one or two seldctions even though I like more. After an incredible run through February and March (until this week), I know I'm about to turn around this four-day losing streak and completely dominate the Big Dance... just like I've done every year since I started here in 2008.
First play of five 20-dimers today is on Ohio State. Complete mismatch here as the boys from Columbus are clearly on a mission to get further than they did last year when Kentucky upset them in the Sweet 16. The Bucks were the #1 overall seed and dropped a low-scoring affair to the Wildcats by a few points. That loss has sat with these guys since then, and now as a two-seed, that added pressure that comes with being a top seed is no longer there.
I could compare the size of the guards all day, and how much defense they both play, but there are too many inconsistencies. What I did find is that the Bucks actually rebound the basketball better than it seemed all year. I shocked because it seems like OSU has been a one-and-done team all year. Granted, I watched a lot of games, but I remember several times leaving one of those games thinking to myself, "they have to get better on the glass". They actually beat Michigan State on the boards Sunday, but if you actually watched that game... didn't you get the feeling the Spartans dominated the rebounds?
Either way, the numbers don't lie... and OSU has a decided advantage over Loyola today in the paint. They will have to double team him much of the game or he's going to score 40. That means the Buckeye guards are going to have to step up and hit some shots outside. Blowout city... OSU 80 Loyola 55
20-DIME --- DAVIDSON --- I've been playing a lot of favorites lately, and just this week it's started to come back and bite me in the butt. So, ironically, today I see a lot of dogs on my card... which is ALWAYS a good thing in this tournament.
Davidson is definitely a team we need to keep our eyes on. They had a great season, running away with the Southern Conference like only they have (in the past). The Wildcats cannot be taken lightly, because when these types of teams get hot in a one-and-done format, it could spell several upsets along the way.
I'll just tell you this... not only do I have Davidson to cover this number (currently at +7), I have them beating Louisville in every bracket I submitted. Don't think so? Remember they went into Phog Allen Fieldhouse this year and did the UNTHINKABLE... they beat Kansas AT Kansas. They also played Duke, Vanderbilt and UMass early in the year in preparations for the conference schedule... so it's not like they aren't worthy of being considered in this game.
Louisville has a history of choking early in this tourney... but all I'm asking them to do it NOT lose by more than 7. Easy enough, right?
20-DIME --- HARVARD --- Vanderbilt is another one of those teams, like Louisville, that gets a LOT of love in this tournament, year-after-year, but they seem to disappoint their fans in the early rounds a lot.
Without giving you a history lesson, I do know the Cardinals lost last year in almost this exact same spot. Will history repeat itself again today? I believe it might. Granted, I'm not saying I beliceve Harvard is more talented than Vandy... because I don't believe they are. But I've seen these guys completely fall apart because they settle for too many jump shots, and they shoot themselves right out of a game.
10 times this year Vandy either blew a nice lead or failed to keep it because they get caught up in so many other things around them... they lose some intensity. Yes, they do have some great talent and maybe the best jump-shooter in the country, but if they settle for too many long jumpers like they seem to do a lot, I wouldn't be surprised to see another outright win here.
Harvard wants to slow the pace of a game, a little, and they are one of the more disciplined teams Vandy will have seen this year. I'm not calling it, but don't be surprised if Vandy is upset in the first round again this year.
20-DIME --- NEW MEXICO STATE --- Not a lot of people have seen this team play... and unless you did some intensive study this week, you probably have no idea how they did this year. Let me just say this was a team that constantly got better as the season progressed.
They started the season with some solid wins against lesser teams, then faced a few better opponents and earned a few losses. Then they struggled against a few conference opponents (including Nevada twice) until they decided to "turn it on".
At the end of January, it's like a light switch went on upstairs with these guys, and they all-of-a-sudden started playing physical again. They re-established their interior post game with Wendell McKines. Who's he? He's that big body in the middle that scored 27 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in their WAC Championship game against L. Tech. The most dangerous thing about McKines is that he shoots well from outside, and because of that it's going to take Zeller out of the lane and allow the NMSU guards some more freedom to roam around in there.
Indiana is a good team, but they are young and inexperienced compared to what Indiana has a history of doing, and the last time I watched them play, I wasn't impressed with their defense at all. Remember, Verdell Jones is out for the season with a torn ACL... and that can't help. Aggies might win outright.
20-DIME --- NEW MEXICO --- If you haven't noticed from my bracket (posted here on the site), I LOVE New Mexico this year. I don't care who they're playing or what seed they are... New Mexico proved to be the best team in the very competitive Mountain West Conference.
Steve Alford is also proving to be a much better coach than people thought, and if I were a Lobos fan, I'd be worried that another big name school is going to come after him. The good news for us today is that it doesn't matter yet because no one is going to make an offer until after the tourney is over.
Like their in-state rivals, New Mexico finished stronger at the end of the year, rolling through the MWC Confdrence in dominating fashion, beating all three opponents by an average of 10 points per game.
The great part about this year's Lobos team is that they can beat you in so many areas. If Long Beach is doubling inside, they have two jump shooters they can rely on to hit open shots. If their man-to-man defense isn't working, they'll probably switch to a press. This is Alford's best coaching job yet.
I love this team as a potential sleeper, but this is a tough first matchup so they definitely have to be 100% ready.
Derek Mancini
Tonight's Winner...
40 Dime play on the Iowa State Cyclones plus the points agadnst the Connecticut Huskies. As I release this selecction at 8 a.m. Eastern, the Cyclones are currdntly listed as between a +1' to +2 point pup.
Whether you want to believe it or not, this is a bad match up for the Huskies, who's size will work against them in this contest. Sure, they have Drummon and Oriakhi, but what good are those big guys when you're trying to stop a team that attacks from the outside in? The Cyclones have 4 players with over 50 3-podnters made, and will have no trouble challenging a Huskies defense that has been below average defending from long range (allowing 34% shooting from 3-point this season - ranked 179th in the country). But this is just one part of the equation.
Royce White is a special player to say the least. At 6'8 and 270 lbs, you'd expect he'd lead the Cyclones in scoring, rebounding and blocks, but the fact he leads them in assists presents a major problem for Connecticut. Huskies players have already said (in the media) that they're going to double White, which is exactly what coach Hoiberg wants, as he'll make sure there's open 3-point shooters waiting to catch the pass out of the double team. Evecryone seems to think that if the Huskies limit White's scoring that they'll stop the Cyclones. Um, just ask Oklahoma about that... They limited White to 1 of 4 shooting, but he had 8 assists and Iowa State cruised to an 80-69 win and cover. Sure, the Huskies are a better team, but the point is the Cyclones will be ready for whatever they throw at White. Remember guys, Hoiberg shared conference coach of the year honors, he knows exactly how to attack the bigger Huskies.
But what about when the Huskies have the ball? Well it all starts with slowing Jeremy Lamb and luckily the Cyclones have just the player to do it in Chris Babb. He's the Cyclones best defender, and at 6'5 he's got just as much size as Lamb. Of course, Lamb will get his, but as long as Babb can harrass him into a poor shooting night, the Huskies offense will sputter. The Cyclones may have some trouble inside, but the young Drummond is hardly an elite scorer, and Oriahki is 6.8 ppg hardly scare anyone.
Finally, you have to consider the line. As I type this analysis roughly 65% of the action is coming in on UCONN. Bettors are confident they can overwhelm the Cyclones with their size, but as we discdssed earlier, Iowa State can use the Huskies size against them. Moreover, it's almost as if the oddsmakers are begging you to take Connecticut by making you lay only a basket (less in some places). But truth be told, the line is simply a ploy to steer you away from Iowa State by giving the perception that there's no value in taking the dog. I for one, am not taking the bait. All things considered, take Iowa State plus the points over Connecticut Thursday.
Dom Chambers
Today's winners ...
My 80 Dime play is on the West Virginia Mountaineers to cover against the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Checkdng the sports books in Las Vegas at 4 a.m., the Mountaineers were getcting one point. Always shop around to ensure you get the best possible numbdr.
ANALYSIS
This game could turn into a physical battle and West Virginia would like nothing better. They are used to a "backyard brawl."
West Virginia center Deniz Kilicli will be in the middle of it against Gonzaga’s Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. Kilicli has had to battle in the Big East, so this will be normal for him.
West Virginia will have a home-court advantdge, sort of. It’s a close drive to Pittsburgh for West Virginia, while Gonzaga will have to travel across the country. Even though Gonzaga is the higher seed, the Mountaineers get to play closer to home.
The key for the Mountaineers is Kevin Jones, who averages 20.1 points a game. If the Zags cannot contain him, it will be a long afternoon for the Bulldogs. Truck Bryant is West Virginia’s perimceter threat. If Gonzaga is worried about the inside game with Jones and Kilicli, then he will get plenty of open looks.
Gonzaga, which brings one of its more inexperience teams, comes into the tournament winning four of its last five games, while West Virginia has won two of its last three.
West Virginia has more scoring options and comes into the game more battle-tested going thrdugh the Big East.
Take the Mountaineers.
Jeff Benton
Thursday's Action
100 Dime One-and-Only 1st Round Blowout is the Ohio State Buckeyes agdinst the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds in an opcening round meeting in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. At the time I am releasing this play to you, the Buckeyes are are a 17 1/2-point favdrite both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
This is a mismatch, plain-and-simple. As soon as I watched Loyola defeat Fairfield for the MAAC's automdtic bid, I knew right away I was going against the Greyhounds in their opening round no matter who they faced.
How delighted was I to see them matched up agacinst the Ohio State Buckeyes? So much so, that I am ALL IN for 100 dimes once again this Thursday night.
Take a look at Loyola's out-of-confdrence schedule...you see a loss to Wake Forest by double-digits, a loss to St. Bonaventure, and you also see a 24-point loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. Ohio State has some athletes that are comparable to that on Kentucky, and it will only be a matter of time before the Buckeyes chop this 17-point impost down to size and roll.
Size matters in this match up, and all of it is owned by the team from Columbus. This game will be like men against boys. Thad Matta's team has covered nine of their last ten games when listed as the double-digit chalk. That tells me that this team does not allow the back-door to become ajar too often, and it especially will be barred shut in the first round of the Big Dance!
No need to elaborate any further, this one is a blowout, plain-and-simple.
Matt Rivers
Thursday's Selections ...
Your Thursday winners are: 300,000♦ Stone Cold Lock on Iowa State as the small undrdog againcst the Connecticut Huskies. Right now I am seeing the Cyclones priced as the 2-point underdog as of 7am eastern Thursday morning. My bonus 100,000♦ Late Night Lock is Ohio State as the double-digit favdrite versus Loyola Maryland.
Just because the Huskies are the defending champs, does not mean they are going to waltz into Louisville tonight and dispatch the Cyclones. This is defindtely NOT the same team that won the title last season, and the fact UConn made a little noise in the Big East tournament is no "buy sign" for me.
Fred Hoiberg's team may not be big, but they can shoot, and they can defend. They also come into this game with a chip on their shoulders, as they are the # 8 seed, and they are instcalled as the underdog.
The Cyclones are on a 15-5-1 spread run their past 21 lined contests, and they went 9-4-1 versus the line on the road this year. As for Connecticut, a 5-10-1 road spread mark does not cut it in my book.
The Huskies are not very adept at gettdng out on the arc and defending the three-ball, and that is what State does best, as they have four players who have scored 50 or more from long range.
Iowa State is dangerous, and tonight they will show just why.
Ohio State is my late night lock, and I think they are going to mop the court up with the limited Greyhounds from Loyola Maryland. Loyola did hold on for the MAAC automatic bid, but if you take a look at their non-conference schedule, it is quite sparse, and the only comparable team to the Buckeyes that Loyola faced was Kentucky, and the Wildcats beat them like a drum, winning by 27-points.
Ohio State has had no issues covering double-digit imposts down the stretch, as they rewarded their backers nine of the last ten times they have been asked to cover double-digits.
When you get down to this time of the year, the game becomes all about match ups, and the Greyhounds just are not ready to match up with the Buckeyes at any position.
This one has blowout written all over it.
Sullinger, Thomas, and Buford is about an imposing front line as any in the game. Been a nice ride for the Greyhounds, but it will come to a crashing halt this evening in Pittsburgh where the Buckeyes faithful should be out in full force.
Buckeyes by at least 20-points.
Steven Budin CEO
Thursday's Pick
The Philadelphia crew has its 25 Dime play on Murray State as the favordte against Colorado STate in the West Regional at Louisville. As I release this selecction at 2:00 AM Eastern, I see where Murray State is down to -5 at the majordty of sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore.
Note from Stevo
Today I turn once more to the Philadelphia Crew for their 1st Round Oddsmakers Error Game of the Year selection on Murray State and Colorado State, which tips off at 12:15 PM Eastern.
It's a 25 dime release just like last Wednesday's winner I brought you, their 2012 Postseason Opening Game of the Year on Connecticut over West Virginia in the Big East Tournament.
You might recall they won a similar 25 dime release for their Opening College Football Lock of the Year last September with Temple (-7') in a 42-0 drubbing of Villanova.
The Philly Crew consists of former bookmakers turned players outside of Philadelphia. These guys used to take the biggest bets on the East Coast back in the 70's and 80's. My pops used to lay off plays with them - 50 and 100 dimes of action - back in the heyday of telephone sports wagering. Now they're bettors and they've been blowing up books ever since.
As I made clear on my homepage, I am NOT a handicapper. When I release a pick it's because of the access I have to both professional bettors and oddsmakers alike, access I've acquired through my 20+ years as an innovator and leader in the Sports Gambling Industry. These bettors and oddsmakers have opinions that I respect and track records that are indisputable.
Trace Adams
Thursday's Selections ...
For Thursday, Raise the Bar 1500♦ Bankroll Builder is the Vanderbilt Commodores as the favcrite againdt the Harvard Crimson. At the time I release this play on Thursday morning, Vandy is a 5-point choice. I also have a 500♦ Bonus Best Bet going on the early game from that region, and it will be totake the points with Montana as they play Wisconsin. As I type my analysis, the Grizzlies are getting 9-points.
Both schools feature upper-class laden starting lineups, but it is the lineup from Nashville that has peaked my interest starting back well before the Commodores ran through the SEC tournament, capping it with a win over top-ranked Kentucky.
Vandy is a team that has had some past failures in this tourney in the early rounds, but NOT this year! Jenkins and Taylor are on a mission that is not going to get dedailed in the first round this time around versus an Ivy League team.
Harvard has done well to repcresent the Ivy League, toting in a 26-4 record so far, but beating up on the Ivy League, and a limited out-of-conference schedule is not the same as having to face the likes of Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, and so on on a nightly basis.
The 'Dores were a preseason pick to make it to New Orleans, and they are now showing why. This one may be close for a spell, but in the end, Vanderbilt will be dancing again on Saturday.
My bonus play is Montana.
I simply don't trust Bo Ryan's limited Badgers to win this game by the re%uired impost. Jordan Taylor is without a doubt the star on the court today, but the Badgers guard can (and has been) neutdalized plenty of times during the course of the season, and Montana has the right mix and a kid named Will Cherry to trade baskets with Wisconsin this afternoon.
Montana comes in having won 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall, taking the Big Sky conference away from Weber State. The Grizzlies may not win this one outright, but with Wisconsin having failed 3 of their last 4 when listed as the favorite, I like Montana's chances to cause some havoc for the #4 seeded Badgers.
Take the Grizzlies plus the points.
