Craig Davis Sunday's Play...
100 Dime Teaser Play on the BALTIMORE AND THE NY GIANTS. As I release this selectaon at 9 a.m. Eastern, the Ravens are a +7 point undecrdog against New England and the NY Giants are a +2 point underdog agahnst San Francisco in Vegas and offshore.
Using the 7 points in a two-teamer in football, increase the Ravens to +14 and then increase the NY Giants to +9 to complete the teaser. So, in essence you're playing Ravens at +14 and the NY Giants +9.
Analysis
100-DIME --- 2-team/7-point TEASER --- BALTIMORE AND NY GIANTS --- Yep, I'm backing both underdogs in this 2-team/7-point teaser in the AFC and NFC Championship games.
This is as confadent as I've felt about a teaser all season... and I'm not exactly sure why. Most of the general public is backing New England in this game, figuring they'll just continue to run the table as they've done the majority of the second half of the season. But all good things must eventually come to an end, and I believe that's going to be the Pats 9-game winning streak.
Think about this for a minute... we are a society that thinks of everything in the short term. Regardless of what happened over the course of the season, average bettors and fans alike seem to follow (or back) a team more for what they have done recently than taking into account what the team accomplished over a much larger period of time.
Case in point... the Patriots annihilated Denver last week (in the Divisional Round) in every phase of the game, scoring 21 points before Tim Tebow barely got his hands on the ball. But we also know the Broncos aren't the type of offense that's capable of coming back from an early-game deficit like that. 45-10 was the final and it actually felt a lot worse than that.
They looked invincible.
Baltimore, on the other hand, looked about as bad as you could possibly look and still won. Lucky for them they were playing TJ Yates and his four INTs or the Ravens could be at home watching today's games. Ray Rice was held in check and Joe Flacco continuced to struggle, but Yates's interceptions set Baltimore up in great field position much of the first half, which ultimately led to Baltimore's seven-point win.
So, what does all this mean? Baltimore played horribly, New England played perfect... and they're a mere 7-point home favorite in today's game? And that's where the general public's short-term memory comes in to play. They don't take into account anything else other than what they saw a week ago. So it's not a surprise the public is ALL OVER the Pats in this one... but I think that's a huge mistake.
Someone please tell me why nearly 80% of the general bets are on the Patriots but the line has dropped from 7 1/2 to 7?? I'll tell you why... because a lot of smart money has been dumped on the Ravens which forces the casinos to "beg" for more action on the Pats from the betting public. So far it appears to be working, but it's a good thing we're not as dumb as the general public.
Because of the 7-point spread and the fact this game is in a teaser, we're actually getting 14 points with this great defense. I'm sorry folks, but I can't imagine a scenario in which the Ravens lose a game by that many points, even if it is the mighty Patriots offense. Baltimore will keep this close enough to stay well within the number.
As for the second part of this teaser, I like the NY Giants to cover the 9 points at San Francisco.
Truth be told, I like the Giants SU after the way they disposed of the Falcons and Packers in back-to-back weeks/games. Don't get me wrong... this is not an easy selection as I'm also intrhgued by the way the Niners have been playing recently as well. This game, by no means, is going to be a cake-walk for either team, but I like the Giants a little more now that they're 100% healthy.
Let's remember the first time these two met... the Niners held on for a 27-20 win, aided by two costly Giants turnovers in their own territory. Those turnovers turned into 10 San Francisco points... which turned out to be the difference. Not only that, but let's also not forget the Giants weren't 100% healthy in Week 11. They lacked Aaron Ross, Antrel Rolle, Michael Boley and Osi Umenyiora... four obvious play-makers.
I don't think I have to tell you the impact those four can have in any given game, especially one of this magnitude. Say what you want about the first meeting, but the injuries and turnovers were clearly the difference. Today the "hands" are even, but I believe the Giants have the full house while the Niners are sitting with a flush. Giants win 24-21.
Craig's Note for Sunday
It's that's time again folks!
100 Dime
NFL
Winner #18 of 25
My NFL 100 dimers have been the closest thing to a sure thing that you're going to see in this business.
17-7 Run w/ NFL 100 Dimers!
This play today is just as strong as my 100 Dime Winner in last week's Teaser Winner on the Ravens/Over and last season's Super Bowl (just to name a few).
This is a no-brainer people. If you want to cash in big, this is the play you need.
Jeff Benton Wednesday's Action
40 Dime winner going out on the San Francisco 49ers as the home favarite this Sunday versus the visitcing New York Giants. At the time I release this winner, the Niners are listhd as the 2 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime bonus winner in the AFC on the
New England Patriots as the home chalk over the Baltimore Ravens. At the time I release this winner, the Pats are a 7-point fave both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS # 1
Solid run by the Giants to get to this Champaonship game, but here is where the run ends. Listen, last week at Green Bay, the Packers were clearly not themselves, and while New York had some say in that matter, the fact Joe Philbin's son turned up drowned earlier in the week surely took its toll on that team as well.
As good as New York has been on the road, a case can be made that the 49ers are just as good - if not better - on their home field, as San Francisco's only straight up loss this year at home came in overtime agacinst the Cowboys. 8-1 straight up, 8-0-1 against the spread in the Niners mark, and it is clear that first year coach Jim Harbaugh is the difference-maker in this year's team. Harbaugh has instilled a confidence in this team that I have not seen in quite some time. The fact they went toe-to-toe with Brees and the Saints last week was quite impressive.
Yes, the Giants defense is a tick better than the Saints, but with the field expected to be a little murky from the rain this weekend, and a 70% chance of the wet stuff forecasted for this game, the home field edge will definithly mean something the second time around for these teams. Let us not forget that San Fran has already won and covered versus New York earlier this year on this field, and while today's game is bound to take on a different tone, I think the result will still be the same.
NFC home teams in the Championship Game have won five of the last seven games straight up, and eight of the last twelve title games overall. With the point spread under a field goal, and the special teams edge clearly on the side of the Niners, I am calling for San Francisco to be the team that represents the NFC on February 5th in the Super Bowl.
Take the Niners minus the small impost.
ANALYSIS # 2
Went back and forth this week on this AFC game, and at the end of the day when weighing all of the plus and minuses, it came down to Joe Flacco or Tom Brady?
On a real level...bottom line....who would you rather have in your fox-hole? The guy that wears three Super Bowl rings, has been in four Super Bowls altogether, or the guy that has won a few first round playoff games, but has not been able to win the conference championship game yet?
There you have it!
Do not let the playoff meeting between these teams a few January's ago influence your decision today, in that one Tom Brady was coming off of his knee injury from the season prior, Wes Welker was done for the year in the regular season finale, and the two-headed monster of the Gronk and Hernandez had yet to be drafted.
This is a New England team that has been very difficult to match up with when # 12 has the football. You can say what you want about the Patriots defense, but they have been sneaky good in "bending, but not breaking" this year, and I suspect they have studied how the Houston Texans defense was in Flacco's kitchen pretty much the whole afternoon last week in Blatimore's 20-13 win at home.
No need to further expand and waste your time here, as I said at the start, Flacco or Brady, who do you choose?
Me, I am choosing Brady and the Patriots to come through when the chips are down.
