Have a great Saturday guys and gl
The Pick: My 200 Dime winner is Miami/Ohio.
The Line: The current line is +2 in Vegas and offshore as of 6:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Note: If your line is anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4, I advise buying the 1/2 point up on the Red Hawks.
Your Analysis
I will be shocked if this isn't your MAC Championship game.
The 6-1 Toledo Rockets representing the MAC West roll into Miami to take on the 6-1 RedHawks, the big dogs in the MAC East.
They both dropped their 1st games of the year: Toledo at Illinois in a game they should have won and Miami at Miami/Florida in a game they had no shot in.
Since then, they both have won 6 games in a row.
However, the similarities between the two teams ends there.
Over their last 5 games Toledo hasn't even come close to covering the number.
At Western Michigan laying 21 they found themselves down 31-28 early in the 4th before a pair of Broncos turnovers started the Toledo rally with 3 TD's in the 4th.
They won by 18.
Laying 8 1/2 at home to San Jose State they won by 4, laying 13 1/2 at home to Northern Illinois they won by two 35-33.
Next week at UMASS laying 20, they trailed at the half 21-17 before posting up 3'td's in the 3rd to win 41-24, another no cover.
Last week at 1-6 Ball State, the game was tied at 6-6 when Toledo finally scored with under 2 minutes to go in the game for the 13-6 win, never coming close to covering the 17 1/2.
And now they take on the very best of the MAC in Miami/Ohio, who since that loss to the Canes in South Beach, have been lights out in every way.
They went into UMASS and ran away in the 1st half leading 28-7 and coasting to the easy 41-28 win easily covering the 7.
Next up was a massive OT win at Cincinnati 31-24 as a 14-point road dog. Boom.
They came home to beat Delaware State 62-20 covering the 39 1/2 before rolling into Kent and watching their defense dominate in the 23-3 win.
Then back home they shutout Bowling Green 27-0 easily covering the 7 1/2 before going into Western Michigan last week and winning 34-21, once again covering the 7 1/2.
Folks, Miami is the better team. They have 18 starters back from last year. They have a senior QB in Brett Gabbert, playing behind an offensive line returning 4 starters.
However, the difference in this game will be the Miami defense, who in their only MAC home game shutout Bowling Green.
Which by the way, was a Bowling Green team that went into Georgia Tech of the ACC and shocked the world outright 38-27 as a 21-point dog.
They could not score against Miami.
To the numbers: MAC west teams are 0-8 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite as well as 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
With the home team 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a home dog and clearly having the better defense, I will be shocked if Miami doesn't win the game outright.
This home dog barks loud and clear tonight in Oxford
The Pick: My 200 Dime winner is Miami/Ohio.
The Line: The current line is +2 in Vegas and offshore as of 6:00 am EST. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Note: If your line is anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4, I advise buying the 1/2 point up on the Red Hawks.
Your Analysis
I will be shocked if this isn't your MAC Championship game.
The 6-1 Toledo Rockets representing the MAC West roll into Miami to take on the 6-1 RedHawks, the big dogs in the MAC East.
They both dropped their 1st games of the year: Toledo at Illinois in a game they should have won and Miami at Miami/Florida in a game they had no shot in.
Since then, they both have won 6 games in a row.
However, the similarities between the two teams ends there.
Over their last 5 games Toledo hasn't even come close to covering the number.
At Western Michigan laying 21 they found themselves down 31-28 early in the 4th before a pair of Broncos turnovers started the Toledo rally with 3 TD's in the 4th.
They won by 18.
Laying 8 1/2 at home to San Jose State they won by 4, laying 13 1/2 at home to Northern Illinois they won by two 35-33.
Next week at UMASS laying 20, they trailed at the half 21-17 before posting up 3'td's in the 3rd to win 41-24, another no cover.
Last week at 1-6 Ball State, the game was tied at 6-6 when Toledo finally scored with under 2 minutes to go in the game for the 13-6 win, never coming close to covering the 17 1/2.
And now they take on the very best of the MAC in Miami/Ohio, who since that loss to the Canes in South Beach, have been lights out in every way.
They went into UMASS and ran away in the 1st half leading 28-7 and coasting to the easy 41-28 win easily covering the 7.
Next up was a massive OT win at Cincinnati 31-24 as a 14-point road dog. Boom.
They came home to beat Delaware State 62-20 covering the 39 1/2 before rolling into Kent and watching their defense dominate in the 23-3 win.
Then back home they shutout Bowling Green 27-0 easily covering the 7 1/2 before going into Western Michigan last week and winning 34-21, once again covering the 7 1/2.
Folks, Miami is the better team. They have 18 starters back from last year. They have a senior QB in Brett Gabbert, playing behind an offensive line returning 4 starters.
However, the difference in this game will be the Miami defense, who in their only MAC home game shutout Bowling Green.
Which by the way, was a Bowling Green team that went into Georgia Tech of the ACC and shocked the world outright 38-27 as a 21-point dog.
They could not score against Miami.
To the numbers: MAC west teams are 0-8 ATS when coming off a win as a favorite as well as 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
With the home team 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a home dog and clearly having the better defense, I will be shocked if Miami doesn't win the game outright.
This home dog barks loud and clear tonight in Oxford
bet and you tail it
