SPS - Can you get away with buying the hook in any sport over a short period of time and I mean a very short period of time. Look at the numbers in college football. No winning spread lands on any number more than 4% of the time. Do you want to lay 10 or 20% juice for that right. I think not. No pro's buy points in college football or basketball. The reason books allow you to buy points, bet parlays and teasers is they always win very big in the long run on these sucker propositions. Congrats on your wins the last two weeks. Will you win in the long run if you continue this pattern over 100 bets? The answer is NO. If you don't believe me run the numbers and look up spreads and scores in college football and basketball over the last five years.
I buy the hook if I'm taking points and the spread lands on 3 or 7 or 10. But not all the time. Last week when I was advised not to buy the hook, I didn't, and pushed my bet. While I agree long term it doesn't make sense, in some cases it does. Anyone who believes in absolutes is usually wrong. There is usually some scenarios where the exception applies.
It pays more for Vegas to have the hook in there to begin with. A push to a Casino is money lost. Remember the Green Bay/New England Super Bowl? The line was 7 points on the dot. I remember because of the stories about Vegas pulling it's hair out having to refund so much money. And also because back then I used a local bookie who tried to collect on the push (seeing if he could sucker the one-time-per-year novice bettors into paying on a push). LOL - when he called me I told him a tie was a push - and I don't pay on a push - he tried to tell me a push was a loss - and I screamed at him if he called me again trying to collect on that bet that he would be the one cut into little pieces and dumped to the bottom of the lake. He then said - "ok - no prob". LOL. I am so glad I don't have to deal with locals anymore.
Also, for people that don't think teasers can be profitable, that's cool. But they can be if you know what you are doing and use them in conjunction with Time Zone Hedge bets, Criss Crosses, playing for Middles, and so on. Do the casinos make money on Teasers and Parlays and such? Sure. The same way they do on Flat Betting. Because most people don't know wtf they are doing. To each his own, but I still learn things today and I enjoy hearing other people's theories. Heck - that's how I found out about Brandon Lang!
GL today! Man that was a fucking great win yesterday!!!
Also, for people that don't think teasers can be profitable, that's cool. But they can be if you know what you are doing and use them in conjunction with Time Zone Hedge bets, Criss Crosses, playing for Middles, and so on. Do the casinos make money on Teasers and Parlays and such? Sure. The same way they do on Flat Betting. Because most people don't know wtf they are doing. To each his own, but I still learn things today and I enjoy hearing other people's theories. Heck - that's how I found out about Brandon Lang!
GL today! Man that was a fucking great win yesterday!!!
Sunday 9-19
Langer's Loser - Langer now a stellar 4-7-1
New England -3 for 30 units.
He wants everyone to buy the line down to 2'. Only one problem Langer, almost no one allows you to do that anymore and if they do it now costs 20 cents.
Oh wait, your playing with fictional money so it doesn't matter to you. Let's hit this play so Langer goes bonkers and has to send his tranny out to turn tricks
to pay the rent this month.
Langer's Loser - Langer now a stellar 4-7-1
New England -3 for 30 units.
He wants everyone to buy the line down to 2'. Only one problem Langer, almost no one allows you to do that anymore and if they do it now costs 20 cents.
Oh wait, your playing with fictional money so it doesn't matter to you. Let's hit this play so Langer goes bonkers and has to send his tranny out to turn tricks
to pay the rent this month.
Locked and loaded at Jets +3 for 50 dimes. I didn't buy the hook today because with my casino it bumped it from -110 to -130. If it were -120, MAYBE. But I'm not bumping it that high. I'll just deal with a push if it happens. I also just locked it in now because I figure if they are bumping it from -110 to -130, they aren't gonna push the spread to 3.5 before kickoff.
GL all.
GL all.
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