redpimp said:
Red, you make a solid point concerning the last Super Bowl. I believe that books were very reluctant to move off -7 because they would risk getting middled if the game landed on 7. Imagine the disaster of a ton of early money on NE -7 and late money on NE -6.5. Push the early NE and pay the late NE.
On another point, I get a kick out of Philly being considered the wise position in that game. The "squares" were on NE. But the Pats gave up an easy TD at 1:48 to lose the cover. Backdoor job all the way. I was decidedly a square!!!
winbet said:
The multi-billion dollar international sports gambling industry. And any resemblance of that to locals is minimal.
Do you disagree with what has been stated in this thread? If so, please elaborate so we can discuss it. To simply suggest that posters here have no knowledge is patently false.
Some of the most informed experts on sports have never played the games. So it goes with many things. You don't need to make book to understand how it is done.
Hey Ace,
I'm back and it's nice to read your posts again. Very excited about the coming season as this time, I will be able to read your comments for the entire season as opposed to half the season last year. Also excited to give the program a shot from start to finish. Good luck this season and really look forward to reading your insights on games this year.
I'm back and it's nice to read your posts again. Very excited about the coming season as this time, I will be able to read your comments for the entire season as opposed to half the season last year. Also excited to give the program a shot from start to finish. Good luck this season and really look forward to reading your insights on games this year.
Squeeze Play said:
Squeeze,
I really dont know where to start but, multi-billion? have you read the threads where these jokers cant even pay $2000 to a punter!! what ever you call it, it isnt bookmaking. Do you need to make a book to understand how its done? Certainly not, but if you are ( and I dont mean you specifically) going to give answers to posters, then you do need to have experience of it.
Because the majority of betting in the States is match-play, people get a distorted view of bookmaking, when in reality match-play is at its most basic. Imagine Two horse races going off at the same time, you have bets running up from previous races, flat bets on both, multiple bets starting with each or both, punters taking prices for bigger money on the phone, commission agents bartering for an extra 1/4 of a point, an 1/8th for more money, live or mug. All while keeping an eye on the screens trying to pre-empt the market moves, assessing liabilities and hedging in the space of 5 minutes. Thats just in a shop, on the track is where the real fun starts.
So you can see why I get mad when people who have never done real bookmaking give their opinion on booking a coin toss as if they had been bookmaking all their lives. Its getting late over here but I will try to post the differences between established bookmaking and what the off-shore jokers do later.
PS: Sorry for going on in your thread ACE, my posts were not aimed at you or anyone in particular.
winbet said:Squeeze,
I really dont know where to start but, multi-billion? have you read the threads where these jokers cant even pay $2000 to a punter!! what ever you call it, it isnt bookmaking.
...
So you can see why I get mad when people who have never done real bookmaking give their opinion on booking a coin toss as if they had been bookmaking all their lives. Its getting late over here but I will try to post the differences between established bookmaking and what the off-shore jokers do later.
PS: Sorry for going on in your thread ACE, my posts were not aimed at you or anyone in particular.
I think we come from two different worlds here. I place online sports bets with an extremely reliable sportsbook. In fact, I've seen one complaint about them in 6 months. I know nothing of what you are addressing. The subject I'm talking about is how online sportsbooks set the NFL line to maximize their opportunity to make profits. I'm not concerned how "real" bookmakers deal with chaos on an everyday basis.
And no, I don't understand your anger at all. Ace-Ace presented some material for our enjoyment and discussion. He made a bunch of good points in the post. End of story. No hard feelings meant toward anyone.
The two worst scenarios for bookmakers are these:
1. Getting middled.
2. Getting hammered at one particular line before they can react. This can happen 10 minutes before kickoff.
Thats what I'm talking about, absolutely clueless. Lets hope the people you have your account with are not that stupid.<!-- / message -->
1. Getting middled.
2. Getting hammered at one particular line before they can react. This can happen 10 minutes before kickoff.
Thats what I'm talking about, absolutely clueless. Lets hope the people you have your account with are not that stupid.<!-- / message -->
Winbet with all due respect, you are making a far fetched claim that pretty much insults any one who has been gambling for atleast 3 years. It does not take a science rocketist (pun intended) to figure out how/why casino's set some lines. And if one has not understood the concept of both the casinos attempt to lure the same number of bettors on both sides and at times, the casino's actually taking risk and betting against the public, then i dont see how they could be making money from this game.
I have never booked before, i dont use small scam books and have played lots of money in las vegas casinos and managed to talk to a few of the insiders.
I dont need to have run a book to understand the simple mathematical methods employed by the casinos. (You can easily pick up a book and learn what they do)
I am talking about major las vegas casinos and major off shore sports books, not some local small timers whose methodology would probably differ from one to another. And i suspect that no one in this thread is really referring to their own personal/private local's booking systems because that would ultimately prove useless to the board at large.
I have never booked before, i dont use small scam books and have played lots of money in las vegas casinos and managed to talk to a few of the insiders.
I dont need to have run a book to understand the simple mathematical methods employed by the casinos. (You can easily pick up a book and learn what they do)
I am talking about major las vegas casinos and major off shore sports books, not some local small timers whose methodology would probably differ from one to another. And i suspect that no one in this thread is really referring to their own personal/private local's booking systems because that would ultimately prove useless to the board at large.
redpimp said:
First of all, Redpimp, I appreciate all of your comments here. I am talking of offshore mostly. There are betting syndicates that do place major league plays offshore. And I do believe that it can happen at most any time. It matters not to them WHERE they place their bets. Am I full of BS? Partly, no doubt. Some things we know first hand, most things we fill in the blanks. You talk to people you get clues. While everyone frets about the NFL line, there is so much action on those games, that offshore, its pretty much a gold mine. Balancing the books is relatively easy on Dallas at Washington. Balancing the books on the over/under in East Carolina at Tulane might be a bit trickier. Still, the offshore guys do fear the syndicates, even on big games. -My opinion -
The bottom line here is that we are all speculating on the value of analyzing the line moves in order to discern some value in NFL plays. Tough way to find winners, at best.
Redpimp,
firstly, that quote about getting hammered was by squeeze play, not me, and it proves my point. In one post he claims he understands the system in theory and in another he posts about getting middled and hammered. The whole reason I argue these posts is, one shouldnt answer a posters question if all you are doing is guessing.
From a stand-still point of view, all of yours and others observations are correct, however, as I tried to explain, things are much more fluid in reality. MathProf is correct in his post about the big boys, they set the spread and with the % of vig they have there is ample room for adjustments, giving them a fairly balanced book most of the time. Your Casino friends mention that they sometimes gamble is probably no more than letting an uneven book ride, knowing that at the vig, a long term profit is secure, although I wouldnt be surprised if plenty of their cash finds its way to the off-shore.
As for the Off-shore, having nowhere for clients to go means no easy mug money coming in off the streets, so in order to create business their prices have to be keener. Because they dont have the vast casino profits backing them, they have no choice but to trade at prices where there is little room for error. At these prices, a book becomes no more than a player with an edge, and if they are going to go into a bet with an opinion they may as well use the market for any other opportunity to profit. That is why you see the ridiculous fluctuations back and forth, wiped off the board for re-assessment etc.
What can go wrong? plenty, but its like making a driving mistake, you will get away with it on a three lane road but not a one lane, the big boys have the three lanes. That is why so many Firms go bust, not because of bookmaking but because they are failed gamblers. Its too early in the day to give an example but when you have time, pick out an event and track the dealings of Pinnacle and Ladbrokes, chalk and cheese.
firstly, that quote about getting hammered was by squeeze play, not me, and it proves my point. In one post he claims he understands the system in theory and in another he posts about getting middled and hammered. The whole reason I argue these posts is, one shouldnt answer a posters question if all you are doing is guessing.
From a stand-still point of view, all of yours and others observations are correct, however, as I tried to explain, things are much more fluid in reality. MathProf is correct in his post about the big boys, they set the spread and with the % of vig they have there is ample room for adjustments, giving them a fairly balanced book most of the time. Your Casino friends mention that they sometimes gamble is probably no more than letting an uneven book ride, knowing that at the vig, a long term profit is secure, although I wouldnt be surprised if plenty of their cash finds its way to the off-shore.
As for the Off-shore, having nowhere for clients to go means no easy mug money coming in off the streets, so in order to create business their prices have to be keener. Because they dont have the vast casino profits backing them, they have no choice but to trade at prices where there is little room for error. At these prices, a book becomes no more than a player with an edge, and if they are going to go into a bet with an opinion they may as well use the market for any other opportunity to profit. That is why you see the ridiculous fluctuations back and forth, wiped off the board for re-assessment etc.
What can go wrong? plenty, but its like making a driving mistake, you will get away with it on a three lane road but not a one lane, the big boys have the three lanes. That is why so many Firms go bust, not because of bookmaking but because they are failed gamblers. Its too early in the day to give an example but when you have time, pick out an event and track the dealings of Pinnacle and Ladbrokes, chalk and cheese.
I am here to learn. I have opinions like most at this board. They are based partly on my experiences and partly on speculation. Guessing, you might say. But in my estimation it is educated guessing. Bring in an exec at a top online sportsbook, swear him to honesty and let's get down to the facts.
All I read here is speculation. And I find it very entertaining. I do not work offshore, in a casino or anywhere near either one. I do know some people involved in those operations.
OK, teach me the facts. Three guys come into a Las Vegas book and want to bet the max on the Cowboys at the same time. What exactly happens? They take it off the board, right? Then what? What happens next? They adjust the line by 1/2 point? They refuse any more bets on that game? The guys are still there. I would like to know what you all know. You are saying the books do not fear getting hammered because they have safety meaures in place. Please explain. In my way of thinking, the books all generally want to balance the play. If they get heavy play all in one direction, what exactly can they do other than A) adjust the line or B) refuse any more plays or C) They lower the limit or D) They say a prayer.
If they lower the limit, my boys go next door and they may not come back.
I submit to you that in the end, its a judgment call and not one books like to deal with. But then I may be all wet.
All I read here is speculation. And I find it very entertaining. I do not work offshore, in a casino or anywhere near either one. I do know some people involved in those operations.
OK, teach me the facts. Three guys come into a Las Vegas book and want to bet the max on the Cowboys at the same time. What exactly happens? They take it off the board, right? Then what? What happens next? They adjust the line by 1/2 point? They refuse any more bets on that game? The guys are still there. I would like to know what you all know. You are saying the books do not fear getting hammered because they have safety meaures in place. Please explain. In my way of thinking, the books all generally want to balance the play. If they get heavy play all in one direction, what exactly can they do other than A) adjust the line or B) refuse any more plays or C) They lower the limit or D) They say a prayer.
If they lower the limit, my boys go next door and they may not come back.
I submit to you that in the end, its a judgment call and not one books like to deal with. But then I may be all wet.
Squeeze Play said:
This is what happens to me most of the time i go to a casino and ask for about 2 dimes or more in all casinos in vegas i have been to. (it actually starts at a dime but since the only time i make trips out to vegas i intend to play well over 2 dimes a play, i can tell you what happens from there on)
As soon as you tell the clerk what you are playing and how much, she calls book manager and tells him your play. The book manager then walks over to a computer that has all the current plays listed, and i would assume, the days profits losses etc. The manager looks at various numbers and other indicators which they refused to tell me and decides if they will risk taking your bet or not. If he has enough money to cover your bet on the other side of the game, he will probably let you place your bet.
Now if three guys walk in at the same time and want the same play at the same time, the manager will probably only let the first guy place his bet, when he does this, the manager will immediately increase the line. If the second guy still wants to place the bet with a new line, then he will take it and again increase the line.... At this point the 3rd guy should be swayed from placing the his bet. But should he do it, the line will move once more...Now the line is more favorable to those people who were planning on betting the other side.
The casino will probably entice more line shoppers to play the opposite of the 3 guys with what seems like a juicy line. And Vegas is ripe with know it all degenerates who automatically throw money on the other side once they see a huge line move.
Another thing that might happen, the casinos have services that monitor plays for them. There fore if you get a crew of wise guys or game fixers placing too much money on one team in multiple casino's, the monitoring services informs the book managers of this oddity and they will probably pull the line or slap severe limits on it...
Third option is that the manager might just decline all the 3 players and invite them to play other forms of gambling in his casino or walk next door and feel free to try it out there...(Chances are that before you even get next door, he will be on the phone to with the manager next door inquiring about some odd plays on a particular game...Dont be suprised if they still get kicked out of the next casino too)
Have no doubt about this, 95% of vegas sports books dont give a rats ass about pro sports bettors like us. They do not even care one single bit if they lose a pro player to another casino. Thats why even after you hit em up large, they will NOT comp you for sports book plays. We are not an asset to them, we are more of a liability. (to them thats good riddance, the risk is not worth it) Vegas casinos are mostly interested in tourist action. Sports books are not even expected to bring in large profits. The profits they bring in are a pittance compared to pretty much all of other forms of gambling in the casino.
The book managers dont recieve any credit for bringing in a big fish and totally catch hell if one fish hits it big in their book! Dont let those stories about Jennifer lopez winning big on the Bucs superbowl from years ago fool you. (The casino is probably the one that was calling all the tabloids to let them know she won huge, thats easy ass advertising they got in pretty much all the major news publicatios and didnt even have to pay a dime for it...Coverage definately worth more that she even won) They would never let you or me bet 50k on a game. May be the superbowl, but thats it!
About middling. I am totally convinced that there are almost no casinos that are afraid of middlers and that middling is Ahabs white whale..I dont want to tackle this issue right now but will test it this coming football season. (I know for sure it doesnt work at all in basketball and casinos arent that scared of it)But gambling to me is a learning experience and i would like to put this middling myth to the test and see if works.
THANK YOU. That post was very informative. It does convince me that Vegas books are pretty much crap. And I have heard that many offshore books are willing to put the screws to you if you become a liability. I don't know just how they do that, but as with anything other service industry, there are many different levels in the quality of service.
I am looking at things from a math point of view. How can any book take a loss on a pointspread game? I see two clear ways. They get middled or they have an unbalanced book and the wrong side wins. But there are many levels of success in between. If a perfectly balanced book becomes unbalanced, they have additional risk. If they open a favorite at -6.5 and move it to -7.5, they easily get middled when the fav wins by 7.0. And that can happen if no one on earth has both sides. Other than those two ways, I cannot see how the book can take a loss. That was my original point.
Your post makes it clear that the Vegas book checks its situation before allowing a play which could unbalance things too much. I would like to know what happens when someone enters a $30,000 bet at an online sportsbook. I am a small time recreational player, but I have a little knowledge nevertheless. Does the online book take the action or balk at a big play and review the stats?
Thanks again for the great post.
I am looking at things from a math point of view. How can any book take a loss on a pointspread game? I see two clear ways. They get middled or they have an unbalanced book and the wrong side wins. But there are many levels of success in between. If a perfectly balanced book becomes unbalanced, they have additional risk. If they open a favorite at -6.5 and move it to -7.5, they easily get middled when the fav wins by 7.0. And that can happen if no one on earth has both sides. Other than those two ways, I cannot see how the book can take a loss. That was my original point.
Your post makes it clear that the Vegas book checks its situation before allowing a play which could unbalance things too much. I would like to know what happens when someone enters a $30,000 bet at an online sportsbook. I am a small time recreational player, but I have a little knowledge nevertheless. Does the online book take the action or balk at a big play and review the stats?
Thanks again for the great post.
redpimp said:
I was offered a limit of $30,000 on the Yankees-Angels game tonight. I honestly believe that if I had that much in my account, I could point and click and place a $30,000 bet on that game without a problem. This is offshore. I am guessing that this means that a single $30,000 bet would not tip their books to an unacceptable level, so they are willing to take that action on EITHER side. After such a play, they might reduce the limits or maybe not.
In any event, I think this is evidence that the handle offshore dwarfs Vegas. Otherwise, you wouldn't face so much scrutiny in the state of Nevada.
Concerning middles. No, I don't think anyone worries about a player that takes both sides. But they can get middled if the line moves a great deal (or moves across a KEY number like 3 or 7). And that middling can reduce their profit. It may not put them in a LOSS position, but it can put a dent in the bottom line for that game.
Squeeze Play,
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If you are really interested in learning about the topic in this thread I can offer you help. A book called Prisoner’s Dilemma by William Poundstone is a gold mind of information on zero some games. The book is about game theory and the author does a great job of relating the insights of game theory to real-world issues. You don’t have to be intimidated about the material because the book is written for the layperson. It’s one of the most informative books I’ve ever read. Very useful and easy to digest.
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After reading this book you’ll have a far better understanding of the topic in this thread and many others.
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Randy
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>If you are really interested in learning about the topic in this thread I can offer you help. A book called Prisoner’s Dilemma by William Poundstone is a gold mind of information on zero some games. The book is about game theory and the author does a great job of relating the insights of game theory to real-world issues. You don’t have to be intimidated about the material because the book is written for the layperson. It’s one of the most informative books I’ve ever read. Very useful and easy to digest.
<o
></o>After reading this book you’ll have a far better understanding of the topic in this thread and many others.
<o
></o>Randy
Squeeze,
Just a couple of quick points, a balanced book is theoretical, the more you take the bigger the likelyhood but they are still rare. There are several options open to the book, hedging to balance, increase the price to attract money or, like most big books, sit tight.
You hear alot of talk on here about squares, sharps, middlers, scalpers etc. I dont know how US books work or how their Punters bet, but one would think it couldnt be much different to Britain as its basically the same scenario. All bets come alike and constant reviews of clients betting patterns is whats important.Two categories that stand out for closer inspection are whats called Ghosters ( strangers) or Faces (known Pro's) Small books like me would start a mutuel working relationship with a Pro but a Ghoster, until proven otherwise, was respected.
On middling I tend to agree with Redpimp. Middling is only another name for hedging and as such has to make sense mathmatically, doing it carte blanche in match play is asking for trouble.
Just a couple of quick points, a balanced book is theoretical, the more you take the bigger the likelyhood but they are still rare. There are several options open to the book, hedging to balance, increase the price to attract money or, like most big books, sit tight.
You hear alot of talk on here about squares, sharps, middlers, scalpers etc. I dont know how US books work or how their Punters bet, but one would think it couldnt be much different to Britain as its basically the same scenario. All bets come alike and constant reviews of clients betting patterns is whats important.Two categories that stand out for closer inspection are whats called Ghosters ( strangers) or Faces (known Pro's) Small books like me would start a mutuel working relationship with a Pro but a Ghoster, until proven otherwise, was respected.
On middling I tend to agree with Redpimp. Middling is only another name for hedging and as such has to make sense mathmatically, doing it carte blanche in match play is asking for trouble.
