Sun Devil, I lived on the 600 blk of Levering and of course you know where that is. They have since put an In and Out in the village right around the corner from Westworld. I remember when they used to have 12 Asteroids games and 8 Defenders.
Man I miss high school
If I had to put a # on your prize money I would say that it is a nickel at Gamblers Ave. with a 3x roll
Man I miss high school
If I had to put a # on your prize money I would say that it is a nickel at Gamblers Ave. with a 3x roll
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Otherwize:
Math Guru and good ole Raiders I'll have to vote a third to that. Sun Devil should get it hands down. That's why I initially came to this site: serious talk about things that can make us all better.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This could be a landmark thread for a lot of readers who have never felt intellectually stimulated or challenged at The Rx...until now of course.
Forget that it is the wee hours of mid Sunday morning, and ask when the last time that you saw a mathematical analysis on "bad lines" How about the last time that you saw a practical example of the analysis?
See Sun Devil's posts above
Math Guru and good ole Raiders I'll have to vote a third to that. Sun Devil should get it hands down. That's why I initially came to this site: serious talk about things that can make us all better.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
This could be a landmark thread for a lot of readers who have never felt intellectually stimulated or challenged at The Rx...until now of course.
Forget that it is the wee hours of mid Sunday morning, and ask when the last time that you saw a mathematical analysis on "bad lines" How about the last time that you saw a practical example of the analysis?
See Sun Devil's posts above
If you are using this argument you have to look at it from the BetCBS point of view:
Case 1:
Break-even is +110/-110
Most books offer +100/-120
BetCBS offers +120 by mistake
The book is taking the favorite at -120 when someone bets the dog at +120.
For every $ of risk they assume, they are costing themselves 3.968% on that money. So on a $1000 bet they potentially have to pay out $1200 which is a theoretical loss of $47.62.
Case 2:
Break-even is +425/-425
Most books offer +300/-550
BetCBS offers +605 by mistake
They book is taking the favorite at -605 when someone bets the dog at +605.
For every $ of risk they assume, they are costing themselves 5.667% on that money. So on a $1000 bet they potentially have to pay out $6050 which is a theoretical loss of $342.86.
Regardless of this I still think if a book takes a bet they should honor it.
Revere14
Case 1:
Break-even is +110/-110
Most books offer +100/-120
BetCBS offers +120 by mistake
The book is taking the favorite at -120 when someone bets the dog at +120.
For every $ of risk they assume, they are costing themselves 3.968% on that money. So on a $1000 bet they potentially have to pay out $1200 which is a theoretical loss of $47.62.
Case 2:
Break-even is +425/-425
Most books offer +300/-550
BetCBS offers +605 by mistake
They book is taking the favorite at -605 when someone bets the dog at +605.
For every $ of risk they assume, they are costing themselves 5.667% on that money. So on a $1000 bet they potentially have to pay out $6050 which is a theoretical loss of $342.86.
Regardless of this I still think if a book takes a bet they should honor it.
Revere14
Thanks everyone.
Revere, I'm not quite replicating your case 1 numbers. I think your $47.62 number is too low.
But the whole idea of the takeback prices and how dramatically they can vary (and their variance has an impact on what we judge the dog's actual win probability to be since we take the midpoint of the line to estaimate that) is why I made my 2nd post just dealing with the profit the scalper can lock in. Please tell me, based on that 2nd post, what you think is invalid with the claim that a scalper would be happier to see +120/+100 than +605/-435.
Revere, I'm not quite replicating your case 1 numbers. I think your $47.62 number is too low.
But the whole idea of the takeback prices and how dramatically they can vary (and their variance has an impact on what we judge the dog's actual win probability to be since we take the midpoint of the line to estaimate that) is why I made my 2nd post just dealing with the profit the scalper can lock in. Please tell me, based on that 2nd post, what you think is invalid with the claim that a scalper would be happier to see +120/+100 than +605/-435.
