the last game on tues

seer · Mar 23, 2016

alexnguyen said:
Well that escalated quickly. Sorry Seer. I don't doubt point shaving exists but I think you think it happens way more than it actually does. That BYU game last night was a prime example. A ton of action on BYU and they looked like they were about to give up a vegas style back door cover but they didn't. I've seen games that had 95% of public on one side and the fishiest line in the world. I've taken other side of the "trap" bet only to lose because I bet on a shitty team that couldn't save vegas. I do notice those trap bets do end up being traps more times than not but I think it's only considered a trap because of public perception. The majority of public bettors think team A will smash on Team B but the statistical matchup indicates something closer to the line odds makers set. Public refuses to accept that because of their perception of team A being superior.

ah!!yeah not ur fault no need to apologize. the aha moment was...i had the under....the public also leaned there too. and prolly many noted the inflated total so i am sure the money went on the under. by playing soft d and as noted the game was an under except for a frantic
ending to make sure it went over? it was a bad beat for sure. either way you could be right that there was nothing wrong with the game but as i said at the top of my post b4 i make my selection - if i am on a public team i reduce my bet wager most of the time

seer · Mar 23, 2016

yest in your thread alex i made note that stm was a better team than valpo with sagarin ratings to support that. yet that team quit once they were falling behind.
not saying they fixed it but i just found it questionable that a team that fought hard all year and all for every game to outright quit like they did yest

seer · Mar 23, 2016

alexnguyen said:
This might come back to bite me in the ass but I'll use tonight's game as an example. Public perception is that Ohio is the superior team especially at home but the statistical matchup says Morehead would be favored on a neutral court, hence the short 3 pt line set by odds makers. Public says no way Ohio is going to smash. Not saying Morehead will win, it's gambling and every bet is considered 50/50. I'm just pointing out the public perception vs the matchup at hand. I am taking Morehead tonight purely based on the fact that I love getting fellatio from my wife.

moorehead attempts more shots even on the road.
for me i believe my bet is going on ul laf at 42% public support. irvine is a terrible road team

alexnguyen · Mar 23, 2016

seer said:
moorehead attempts more shots even on the road.
for me i believe my bet is going on ul laf at 42% public support. irvine is a terrible road team

I like that too. Opened up at -2.5 with more action on UL but now it's moving over closer to 50/50 and I see Irvine getting a higher % by tip off with the way momuntum is going. Add that with the line increase to -3.5 and it's looking like an RLM play favoring ULL. I'm taking ULL for small, bol to you tonight.