Kid, your money is as good to me as the books. Count it in, with you Hines and AFL, that is $1500 for the AFL season when it comes. Enjoy the season, should be fun. No where am I saying "free contest" are below me dude. You clearly made a rookie mistake to go to some unknown website and spend months on a contest and try to run them down for your payout. You wasted 5-7 months of your life for nothing. All I am saying is don't question or try to insult me when you have no background or knowledge who I am or what I do. I have never disrespected you or question you, I ask you do the same. Pretty simple and ethical if you ask me. Cheers to the AFL season!! :toast:
Kid, your money is as good to me as the books. Count it in, with you Hines and AFL, that is $1500 for the AFL season when it comes. Enjoy the season, should be fun. No where am I saying "free contest" are below me dude. You clearly made a rookie mistake to go to some unknown website and spend months on a contest and try to run them down for your payout. You wasted 5-7 months of your life for nothing. All I am saying is don't question or try to insult me when you have no background or knowledge who I am or what I do. I have never disrespected you or question you, I ask you do the same. Pretty simple and ethical if you ask me. Cheers to the AFL season!! :toast:
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Handicapping Machine
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Football Handicapping 101
Posts: 9,221
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->MistaFlava's 2007 NFL Record: 21-14-2 (+129.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 21-14-2 (+129.90 Unit)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
This Week: 4-2 ATS (+24.00 Units)
Welcome to my NFL football thread. My season has been a decent one so far. I have hit some big plays, been dead on almost all my PrimeTime TV games so far and have not lost control and bet on too many games. This is crunch time now and I am going to really bear down on some of these Sunday games. I am not asking anyone to tail me and if you it's at your own risk anyways.
---------------------------------
Monday, November 5
Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 (10 Units)
The Baltimore Ravens have not played good football this season but somehow they have managed to keep a decent record and stand at 4-3 straight up right now. The Ravens are coming off their BYE WEEK and should be healthy and well rested for this game but I am not impressed at all with their 1-6 ATS record this season and that tells me that the oddsmakers are having a hard time capping this team. What I do know however is that if you like an underdog to cover the spread you better like them to win the game as well and in this series the home team has now won 8 of the last 9 games. Baltimore won both games against Pittsburgh last season by a combined score of 58-7 and I really doubt they could pull the same thing off this season. The Ravens are coming off a road loss against the Buffalo Bills where they allowed their highest point total of the season and lost 19-14 as 3 point road favorites. In their season opening road game the Ravens lost 27-20 against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals and followed that up with a 27-13 road loss in Cleveland. Their only road win came in San Francisco and the final score was 9-7. Despite outyarding their opponents in all four road games, the Ravens are 0-4 ATS on the road in those games and have not turned yards into points. You can play all the defense you want but when your offense is ineffective like the Ravens, opponents are going to take advantage of it. The Ravens come into this game averaging only 15.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by averaging 290.3 total yards of offense per game and only 4.4 yards per play in those games. The Steelers defense has been stout as usual and has allowed 14.7 points per game in their last three games and allowed 254.7 total yards of offense per game in those games and only 5.2 yards per play. I would be pretty surprised if the Ravens find the endzone once or at all tonight. On the ground, RB Willis McGahee was effective against the Bills but can he keep it up? The Ravens average only 101.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games and that is simply not going to get the job done against a Steelers defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry in those games. That is once again going to put everything in the hands of QB Steve McNair who should be back from his back injury tonight (he has not played in over a month). Rust is defintiely going to be an issue with McNair who has completed 65.6% of his passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season with 2 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions and a QB Rating of 80.2. The Steelers defense has allowed a lot of pass completions in their last three games as their last three opponents have completed 65.6% of their passes but those passes were for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers defense has forced three interceptions and 4 fumbles in their last three games and despite not having INT issues this season, if they come after McNair early, im sure they can force him into mistakes he wouldn't usually make if he wasn't coming off a four week layoff. The Steelers have had problems stopping teams on 3rd down as of late allowing their last three opponents to convert 50.0% of their third down chances but that could change tonight as the Ravens have converted only 34.7% of their third down chances the last three games. The Ravens are also one of the worst RedZone teams in the NFL as they have scored touchdowns only 22.0% of the time in the RedZone in their last three games settling for 8 FG attempts instead. That kind of ineffectivness is going to get you nowhere on Primetime TV and despite struggling in their last three games, this Pittsburgh defense should have it's best game in a long time. Baltimore has scored only 14 points per game on the road this season and despite the return of their starting QB, I expect them to keep losing games and keep failing to cover the spread even though this one looks a bit easier than the other ones.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a tough time establising themselves as one of the TOP 5 teams in the NFL because of some of their recent performances but let's not get ahead of ourselves and let's just keep an eye on what's in front of us. The problem I have with the Steelers and betting on them this season is that they have had the #30 (out of 32) easiest schedule this season and they really haven't faced any top teams. Believe it or not the Steelers have yet to face a team I ranked in the TOP 16 teams of the NFL this season nor will they get that chance tonight as Baltimore is nowhere near one of the top teams in the league. So that means the Steelers will continue about business against mediocre teams where they have gone 5-2 ATS this season so who the heck can complain? The Steelers were impressive in their road game last weekend as they beat the hapless Cincinnati Bengals 24-13 as four point favorites. The Steelers have been unbeatable at home this season and until a much better team comes in here and plays against these guys, they will continue to lawnmower all their home opponents. In their three home games this season (all three wins and covers ATS), the Steelers have outyarded their opponents by a combined total of 456 yards which is an average of 152 yards per game. OUCH! The Steelers come into this game tonight averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have averaged 370.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Baltimore's defense has some injury concerns tonight as both Ray Lewis and Chris McCallister are probably out but the Ravens D has still been stout and allowed only 9.7 points per game in their last three games for only 223.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.3 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Willie Parker and the Steelers rushing attack has been deadly the last three games as they have averaged 147.3 rushing yards per game in those games for 4.4 yards per carry. Parker won't have an easy time tonight against a Raven defense that has allowed only 73.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 2.8 yards per carry in those games but I think it's worth mentioning that they just played against the #26 rushing attack (San Francisco), the #29 rushing attack (St. Louis) and the #19 rushing attack (Buffalo) in those games. Pittsburgh is the #2 rushing attack in the NFL and the Ravens are in for a big surprise in this one. In the air, QB Ben Roethsliberger has completed a whopping 73.5% of his passes the last three games for 8.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. However Baltimore has allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 55.3% of their passes for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt but once again that was against some very mediocre passing teams like the Niners and the Rams who both rank in the bottom 5 teams in the NFL in passing. The Ravens pass rush has always been dangerous and the Big Ben has to be ready for dump off passes tonight because his line has had a tough time protecting him in the last three games (8 sacks allowed). Ben also has to be careful where he throws the ball and what kind of decisions he makes because Baltimore has 7 interceptions in their last three games an can be dangerous at all times. Pittsburgh has been one of the most impressive teams on third downs this season as they have converted 63.2% of their third down chances in the last three games. Baltimore has allowed their last three opponents to convert only 28.2% of the time on third down but again I remind you who they played against and none of those teams came close to comparing with the Steelers. What's been most impressive about the Steelers is their 90.9% touchdown converison rate in the RedZone over the last three games which is really important when dealing with such a large spread like this one. The Steelers have been lights out at home all season and unless something changes tonight, they should have no problems getting some revenge on the depleted and down Ravens team. Baltimore's defense is good but they are banged up tonight and they are facing the best offense they have seen since a 27-13 road loss to the Bengals back on September 30. I am calling for another big game from the Steelers in this one.
You either like the Ravens (1-6 ATS and unreliable) or you like the Steelers (5-2 ATS with blowout power). If the Bills we able to score 19 points on this Baltimore defense, you don't think this Pittsburgh offense can do the exact same or even better playing on National TV? The Steelers have been dominant at home and there is no denying that as they have gone 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS at Heinz Field winning all three games by an average of 21.7 points per game. Seeing how the Ravens are in the same category and same ranking level as the three teams Pittsburgh has faced at home this season, I don't see why the results would be any different in this game? I talked earlier about the Steelers having the #30 (out of 32) ranked toughest schedule up to this point in the season but what I failed to mention is that the only two teams with an easier schedule this season are Seattle and BALTIMORE (who are ranked dead last in the NFL). So we have concluded that neither team has played against top opponents this season (which is true) but the Steelers have managed to win games and cover the spread against those mediocre teams while the Ravens have managed to win some games against those teams but cover the spread only once in seven games. I think Pittsburgh continues to dominate these weaker teams at home and the line seems just about right. The Ravens have dominated this series the last two seasons but it's time for the Steelers to turn things around in this one.
Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 6
I lost my big game on the Eagles last night but am pretty confident that I have found a winner in this one. I will be back tomorrow as well with my CFB College Football picks where I hope to finally have a good week and finish the year strong.
:toast:
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RX Junior
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: california
Posts: 111
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Got that right, after last night I'm not tailing you. Good thing I took the Cowboys at the half to hedge my losses on your great pick. Good luck tonight
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RX Junior
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: california
Posts: 111
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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Got that right, after last night I'm not tailing you. Good thing I took the Cowboys at the half to hedge my losses on your great pick. Good luck tonight
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It was a web site my buddy started, i was posting there as a favor and never even planned on collecting. Think i put in about half the games, because other times i just couldnt get on there. I have been on these forums for about 12 years, so stop assuming, i dont make rookie mistakes like you did this weekend.
Dont get into the professional talk, for a guy that plays a lot of props, first halfs and totals, i wouldnt go there.
What you did to me was insult my intelligence with the way you post and the fraudulant manner you carry yourself.
Stop replying, you said you wouldnt, this is the 3rd time you have gone back on your word this week. (quit if lose, show wagers, not respond...3)
Im in for the AFL challenge, but if i could bet that you wont last the entire season i would take that instead, or actually both as long as money was being held.
If you ever have a "cousin" come thru Philly, let me know, id love to have him bring me a bag of money. You can take advantage of me being a rookie, and well place some non juice wagers, im sure i can match your bag, and i definetly can buy a monopoly box, so either way im good.
Odds for what will be gambled:
Bag of Monopoly $ -2200
Bag of Real Cash $+1900
Why dont you shut me up and post a screen print??? Yeah...
And please for someone that posts all day on a forum, especially someone that doesnt use it for information, please dont go at me for entering a free contest.
And get off Ace, dudes been solid here for a while, ur fly by night, you wont be here by the end of the year.`
Dont get into the professional talk, for a guy that plays a lot of props, first halfs and totals, i wouldnt go there.
What you did to me was insult my intelligence with the way you post and the fraudulant manner you carry yourself.
Stop replying, you said you wouldnt, this is the 3rd time you have gone back on your word this week. (quit if lose, show wagers, not respond...3)
Im in for the AFL challenge, but if i could bet that you wont last the entire season i would take that instead, or actually both as long as money was being held.
If you ever have a "cousin" come thru Philly, let me know, id love to have him bring me a bag of money. You can take advantage of me being a rookie, and well place some non juice wagers, im sure i can match your bag, and i definetly can buy a monopoly box, so either way im good.
Odds for what will be gambled:
Bag of Monopoly $ -2200
Bag of Real Cash $+1900
Why dont you shut me up and post a screen print??? Yeah...
And please for someone that posts all day on a forum, especially someone that doesnt use it for information, please dont go at me for entering a free contest.
And get off Ace, dudes been solid here for a while, ur fly by night, you wont be here by the end of the year.`
I have no beef with anyone here, let me make that clear. But I do need to point out what I think is a glaring conflict of ideologies.
KC ~ first you told TheKids that you would not show him respect since you did not consider him to be "reputable" or a "solid capper" (i.e., you consider him to just be one "the people"). Your words:
"If you were more reputable I would honestly show you my losses last night. Moving forward, I will not even respond to you rookies and children. If a solid capper with respect questions me, I will be more likely and inclined to respond."
Then you turn around and tell ACE ACE (i.e., a "reputable" and "solid capper") that you mean no disrespect to him, but that you respect everyone (i.e., all "the people") the same. Your words:
"Ace, no disrespect but I respect everyone the same whether thats the people or you. Sorry if you feel disrespected that I openly aired out the challenge you presented to me."
Huh? It can't go both ways, or at least it can't go both ways with how you set it up here. So which is it? I get the impression it is neither. You don't care one way or the other. You're main concern is the number of views you get per thread from "the people".
And what is up with "the people" reference? Are you running for office?
That e-mail from ACE ACE should have been kept confidential. Like I said, I have no beef with anyone here and do not have a dog in this fight. However, I don't blame ACE for being angry. Proper manners should have prompted you to seek ACE ACE's permission to post it. Not doing so may lead some of "the people" to begin questioning your motives.
KC ~ first you told TheKids that you would not show him respect since you did not consider him to be "reputable" or a "solid capper" (i.e., you consider him to just be one "the people"). Your words:
"If you were more reputable I would honestly show you my losses last night. Moving forward, I will not even respond to you rookies and children. If a solid capper with respect questions me, I will be more likely and inclined to respond."
Then you turn around and tell ACE ACE (i.e., a "reputable" and "solid capper") that you mean no disrespect to him, but that you respect everyone (i.e., all "the people") the same. Your words:
"Ace, no disrespect but I respect everyone the same whether thats the people or you. Sorry if you feel disrespected that I openly aired out the challenge you presented to me."
Huh? It can't go both ways, or at least it can't go both ways with how you set it up here. So which is it? I get the impression it is neither. You don't care one way or the other. You're main concern is the number of views you get per thread from "the people".
And what is up with "the people" reference? Are you running for office?
That e-mail from ACE ACE should have been kept confidential. Like I said, I have no beef with anyone here and do not have a dog in this fight. However, I don't blame ACE for being angry. Proper manners should have prompted you to seek ACE ACE's permission to post it. Not doing so may lead some of "the people" to begin questioning your motives.
damn
Damn KC you bring out the dogs dont you? I love it...too many people losing money this year on games I see and then take it out on you for losing 1-2 big games...you did lose your other huge NYG ov game but you have made me and your self lots of money...I do not follow yet look at the capping of the games you like and make my own decisions...I also look at what aceace has to say...bottom line is everyone has to look into their own mind and cap...if you sit here and jump around following people you will never win...
Keep up the good work...play is Pitt with small play on the over...good luck:banger:
Damn KC you bring out the dogs dont you? I love it...too many people losing money this year on games I see and then take it out on you for losing 1-2 big games...you did lose your other huge NYG ov game but you have made me and your self lots of money...I do not follow yet look at the capping of the games you like and make my own decisions...I also look at what aceace has to say...bottom line is everyone has to look into their own mind and cap...if you sit here and jump around following people you will never win...
Keep up the good work...play is Pitt with small play on the over...good luck:banger:
This "kid" just posted his plays and said he would trade screen caps. You are telling me to get off "Ace", last time I checked he got at me?? Why don't you do everyone a favor and STFU until AFL starts and put your money where your mouth is. You had a losing week and I personally don't care. Seriously, you should take your own advice and get off my nuts dude. Put your thoughts in a place where people care and if that is keep them in your head, do so. You talk big and bad, come to Philly..... LMAO, if you ever want to bet me face to face, I got a neutral place in Jersey if that is not to far for you. Also if you are ever in Chicago or Toronto, I would love to show you around. LMAO!! Okay, I have wasted enough time responding to you, I guess you did not want to show how much of a child you are hence why you deleted your response showing your plays and saying, "I will trade you screen caps" WTF!!!!!!!!! Go back to daycare where you belong until AFL season starts you chump. Yes this will be the last time I respond to you until AFL season. Thanks for coming by, bring more Haterade next time so you can stay longer. CHUMP!! hola
You constantly are telling people if you can meet in Canada or wherever, my brother, dog, or cousin will bring a bag of money, it was a shot on you and an offer for you that stands always.
The plays i posted went 4-3-1, but i lost my big game so the day was a wash with that 3 extra units. Those plays ranged from 3 to 6 units, i play 100 a unit.
I deleted it because i didnt want to keep it up, but now since you called me out, lets show are cards... I will trade screen prints with you, right now... I dont play large but ill show you over 3 dimes of action yesteday, and even more ill show you a winning percentage.
You called me out, i was gonna drop it, fine, lets show em, ya ready?
The plays i posted went 4-3-1, but i lost my big game so the day was a wash with that 3 extra units. Those plays ranged from 3 to 6 units, i play 100 a unit.
I deleted it because i didnt want to keep it up, but now since you called me out, lets show are cards... I will trade screen prints with you, right now... I dont play large but ill show you over 3 dimes of action yesteday, and even more ill show you a winning percentage.
You called me out, i was gonna drop it, fine, lets show em, ya ready?
King...
I would accept the challenge.
But I would not do it for the amount of money he suggested...
I think that guy averages at least 5 dimes in action on Sundays.
So I would set the contest for 5K.
If money is not an issue, then the winner could donate the money to a charity or something...
If you do accept, make sure you have all of the rules established before you begin. Have seen it where two cappers get in a challenge and do not have the rules in place beforehand...which led to some arguing...
Continued best of luck with your plays.
I would accept the challenge.
But I would not do it for the amount of money he suggested...
I think that guy averages at least 5 dimes in action on Sundays.
So I would set the contest for 5K.
If money is not an issue, then the winner could donate the money to a charity or something...
If you do accept, make sure you have all of the rules established before you begin. Have seen it where two cappers get in a challenge and do not have the rules in place beforehand...which led to some arguing...
Continued best of luck with your plays.
I WAS GOING TO POST IT....YOU COULD OF TALK ABOUT THE E-MAIL....BUT NO TO PUT IT IN PUBLIC FORUM
WHEN I SAY FREIND TO SOMEONE IT MEANS SOMETHING
YOU CAN HAVE 1000 POSTER FRIEND OR A FEW THAT WATCH YOUR BACK
WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO DO?
LOYALTY IS BIG WITH ME....
WE WERE TRYING TO SET SOMETHING UP......
YOU JUMP THE GUN (WITHOUT ME SAYING IT OK TO POST IT)
OPEN FORUM=DOES NOT =OUR E-MAIL
Ace my sincere apologies, just trying to be real and I don't want us to assume this is something the forum wants or needs. I will not, as per your request, release your emails to me to the "public" forum moving forward. I don't back down from anyone and if you want to challenge me, just be honest and let everyone know you want to challenge me. I did not think it was a big issue letting people really know how you feel and again, I am sorry for "jump the gun". Sorry for being so up front about it, don't really see what the big deal is "my friend". My word is my honor and I can assure you I wil not post your emails to me. I will continue to post my plays that I bet and if you or anyone propose a legitimate contest for money, I am all in. Ball is in your court dude, again I did not know you would be offended from a challenge you proposed to me making it public instead of staging it some other way. Cheers, and no hard feelings. I respect what you are trying to do!! :toast:
