The hedging question

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Fezzik, exactly. #2 was the point I was (feebly) trying to make. Well said. I pretty much only take futures when the are overlays and then I overbet them planning on hedging (while also looking for 'rogue' lines on the other side to cheapn of course).
 

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I'm not sure what I do can really be called a hedge, but I routinely bet numerous 3 team parlays (at true odds of 7 to 1). There are always 2 of the games I like alot, but will reverse the last game (or game I'm ambivalent on). In essence I wind up with a 2 teamer at true odds of 3 to 1. I've even went so far as to hedge 2 of the games in the parlay to get one of the games I really like at even money.

Of course, the real trick is to find the books that book 3 teamers at 7 to 1 (they're out there,look around)!
 

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bill, that's not a bad idea. I'd just try to find a 'rogue line' for that game #3 or a line which you think will move in your favor and then line shop the other side to give yourself a cance at a little side or middle for the 3rd game hedge. That'd be a real win-win.
 

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Yep, goes without saying. I often predicate that 3rd bet on the availability of middle/scalp at a place like Pinny. If the planets are lined up right, that 3rd game will have a late start (makes things easier).
 

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#1 is clearly the idea in hedging... The article assumes hedging is always negative EV and that is completely erroneous. Stick to writing articles and confusing the public.
 

It's like sum fucking Beckett play that we're rehe
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I got the A's open for the series vs. Texas at -160.
Was hoping for a slighlty higher line today, but why wouldn't I hedge the bet some.
Now -160 tw 100
What if I lay 50 tw 75 on texas today.
A's win I still win $50
Texas wins, I now have -85 tw 100 on the A's tomorrow (against Rodgers).

Thoughts. Yes this bet was made with the hopes of hedging it today
 

hacheman@therx.com
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One point nobody brought up is the opportunity to "hedge" in 2nd halves of games, and sometimes giving yourself the chance to win double your original wager. This works primarily well in the NBA, and chance is available almost every night if you play a few totals. Some will call this a "middle", but I dont consider it that. Lets say I have the Magic & Pacers Under 182 for the game for $100 The 1st half is over, and only 85 points are scored in the 1st half combined.Im on pace to win my Under 182 and can allow up to 97 points in the 2nd half.........But, the 2nd half total comes out, and it is listed at 88. Ok, Im worried that McGrady & Iverson heat up in the 2nd half and I lose my original bet of under 182.I decide Im going to cover my behind and lay $100 on the OVER 88 for second half, knowing that in order for the teams to reach 182, it must first go over the 88, therefore if they do heat up and go over 88, Ive won $100 back, nullifying the loss of Under 182. BUT, they key here is Ive just given myself a chance to double my bet and make $200 now.I now have a 10 point gap that the total can land in in order to win both bets or push. If it goes just over 88 for second half, but stays under the 97 more I can give up, to stay under 182, then I win both. I just thought I'd throw this in there to show that hedging can be even more awarding in cases like this.
 

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Hache, people do that a lot. I wouldn't say to do this "anytime". A lot of times you will be giving up the value you already have in what is already a good bet. Sometimes the original play is just about a lock to cash and so you're putting that at risk by hedging. I think you have like the 2nd half play on its own and feel that you're getting a good line with the hedge. Now if you also lke the 2nd half play a lot then it's great, the best of both worlds. But I wouldn't do it every time the opportunity arises.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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D2, I know, I was just putting it out there for some that are a little bit newer to this. No, I wouldnt do it all of the time. It always relies on what how many were scored in the 1st and what that 2nd half line is, has to be just right........
 

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