I know guys are thinking to themselves "14-10 is very unimpressive" But if he did that evrey three days for a year he would be 1708-1220, THAT is VERY impressive. Even if he went 13-11 (a very unimpressive looking record) every three days for a year he would be 1586-1342, more than enough to show a profit (spread based).
That is the problem with tracking guys and trying to see how legit the are. people either get bored, and stop keeping track. Or they assume a record isn't worthy enough to track because it isn't hitting at an astounding rate for a short period.
So the record keeping of a gu falls right into the betting philosophy of people who bet. They want an impressive result that they know is making money like 13-2, or 10-0 or 15-4. All possible SHORT TERM, but impossible to maintain over even a moderate length of time.
The best run I have ever had was back in Dec 2000/ Jan 2001. I have the prints outs to prove it still ,because to me it was amazing. I was betting between Big Nasa (won an account there), Canbet, and a few bets at other places. At Nasa I went 37-6. For a couple weeks, was 8-1, then 13-2, then 16-3. After that last win streak I was something like 5-27 So it all sort of evened out. At Canbet during that same period I was 53-7 some of those were the same side that I bought twice for varied reasons (more or less reduced juice) also some parlays mixed in there as well (yeah I bet parlays back then too). But the same thing there. I went into the shitter there as well, after that stretch. But I was betting a lot of opinionated games in NCAA and even the NBA then, and I made a lot of money for a short time. The other places I used had similar results, but Canbet was my main out then, and Nasa was the one I was trying to roll over to get my prize qualifications taken care of, so they had the majority of the plays I made.
But for about 3 weeks there I went 90-13. In terms of unique bets I was something like 78-11. But still, that is a run that is historical, and I have it all printed out. Does it mean I am the greatest thing going? Not hardly. Does it mean I should be selling picks or posting ths up every time I have to prove I cancap. Nope. It was a magical month where I kickd some major ass and won a lot of money. But as stated I lost a lot of it back into them within a short time frame.
I was still the same capper I always was, and still am. NO ONE is a 90% capper. Was it luck? Maybe, more than likely. But when I went 5-27 the next week was that bad luck or was I now a 16% capper?
That is the thing with tracking plays and keeping records. The best guys will be pretty steady with little ups and downs. The guys that are up and down all the time are the ones who generally get lucky. The way I describe my story, I would say I would be a guy whom I wouldn't take advice from, at least for an extended period of time.
But that was a few years ago now, and it only pertains to this time of year. The NCAA. I do not even bet the NBA anymore, unless I see a scalp or a middle oppurtunity. So it is watered down wagering at best there.
But I have never come close to duplicating what I did then, and not sure I would realy want to. I do know that I had been betting for about 4 years as my only source of income, and that stretch got my bankroll to a very good balance that afforded me the oppurtunity to play a lot of baseball that summer. So it was a definate windfall. Almost like I owned a company and my stock split.
But I use it as an example of how record keeping is somethingthat has to be done over time. If I conuted wins and losses from that day until now on games I only play one side of, I am not sure what my record would be. But the results of the last 10 yeras or so makes up my "expectations" as a capper. Not that stretch, not what I am going to do this year, or what I did last year.
It is the same as wehn we try to figure out what is "value" and what isn't. How many times a games lands on 3 that islined 3. Or if trying to middle the SB is right or wrong. You need to know the overall record to make a determination. Not just a short term result that may or may not be an anomoly.
That is the problem with tracking guys and trying to see how legit the are. people either get bored, and stop keeping track. Or they assume a record isn't worthy enough to track because it isn't hitting at an astounding rate for a short period.
So the record keeping of a gu falls right into the betting philosophy of people who bet. They want an impressive result that they know is making money like 13-2, or 10-0 or 15-4. All possible SHORT TERM, but impossible to maintain over even a moderate length of time.
The best run I have ever had was back in Dec 2000/ Jan 2001. I have the prints outs to prove it still ,because to me it was amazing. I was betting between Big Nasa (won an account there), Canbet, and a few bets at other places. At Nasa I went 37-6. For a couple weeks, was 8-1, then 13-2, then 16-3. After that last win streak I was something like 5-27 So it all sort of evened out. At Canbet during that same period I was 53-7 some of those were the same side that I bought twice for varied reasons (more or less reduced juice) also some parlays mixed in there as well (yeah I bet parlays back then too). But the same thing there. I went into the shitter there as well, after that stretch. But I was betting a lot of opinionated games in NCAA and even the NBA then, and I made a lot of money for a short time. The other places I used had similar results, but Canbet was my main out then, and Nasa was the one I was trying to roll over to get my prize qualifications taken care of, so they had the majority of the plays I made.
But for about 3 weeks there I went 90-13. In terms of unique bets I was something like 78-11. But still, that is a run that is historical, and I have it all printed out. Does it mean I am the greatest thing going? Not hardly. Does it mean I should be selling picks or posting ths up every time I have to prove I cancap. Nope. It was a magical month where I kickd some major ass and won a lot of money. But as stated I lost a lot of it back into them within a short time frame.
I was still the same capper I always was, and still am. NO ONE is a 90% capper. Was it luck? Maybe, more than likely. But when I went 5-27 the next week was that bad luck or was I now a 16% capper?
That is the thing with tracking plays and keeping records. The best guys will be pretty steady with little ups and downs. The guys that are up and down all the time are the ones who generally get lucky. The way I describe my story, I would say I would be a guy whom I wouldn't take advice from, at least for an extended period of time.
But that was a few years ago now, and it only pertains to this time of year. The NCAA. I do not even bet the NBA anymore, unless I see a scalp or a middle oppurtunity. So it is watered down wagering at best there.
But I have never come close to duplicating what I did then, and not sure I would realy want to. I do know that I had been betting for about 4 years as my only source of income, and that stretch got my bankroll to a very good balance that afforded me the oppurtunity to play a lot of baseball that summer. So it was a definate windfall. Almost like I owned a company and my stock split.
But I use it as an example of how record keeping is somethingthat has to be done over time. If I conuted wins and losses from that day until now on games I only play one side of, I am not sure what my record would be. But the results of the last 10 yeras or so makes up my "expectations" as a capper. Not that stretch, not what I am going to do this year, or what I did last year.
It is the same as wehn we try to figure out what is "value" and what isn't. How many times a games lands on 3 that islined 3. Or if trying to middle the SB is right or wrong. You need to know the overall record to make a determination. Not just a short term result that may or may not be an anomoly.
this is where a grading number like this is not going to be 100% accurate to everyone. We want to fade and work hard to get the best price or reduced juice on the fade.
3's were easy to find if you had a few outs or super easy to find with Skybook -3 with the free half point. also on the Wisc game 15 1/2 was easy to find. so im not sure how to grade them. Reduced juice is also easy to find on some of these games like at Pinny so some losses are not even -110.
We use scores and odds.com closing lines so he lost on Wisc and won on Duke. That is his games on the evening.
but the anti wager would have pushed on Wake Forest -3. He might hit say 48 % of games but we might win 53% long term due to finding the best possible lines or reduced juice. grade them anyway you wish.
3's were easy to find if you had a few outs or super easy to find with Skybook -3 with the free half point. also on the Wisc game 15 1/2 was easy to find. so im not sure how to grade them. Reduced juice is also easy to find on some of these games like at Pinny so some losses are not even -110.
We use scores and odds.com closing lines so he lost on Wisc and won on Duke. That is his games on the evening.
but the anti wager would have pushed on Wake Forest -3. He might hit say 48 % of games but we might win 53% long term due to finding the best possible lines or reduced juice. grade them anyway you wish.
