The Good ol' Sagarin SOS Bowl System

[Biz]

Are you taking teams that are in the Top 60? It only applies to those.

 

[dtmad]

Yes. Only look at top 60 ranked teams. That's the first filter. Do the checking on an individual game basis. Takes about 20 seconds a game: 1. Is team A's rank better than 60? If yes: 2. Is their SOS worse than 60? If Yes: 3. Is their SOS worse than Team B's SOS? If Yes, Fade team A; bet on Team B.

 

[sparticus]

Bump

 

[ML Dog]

Yes. Only look at top 60 ranked teams. That's the first filter. Do the checking on an individual game basis. Takes about 20 seconds a game: 1. Is team A's rank better than 60? If yes: 2. Is their SOS worse than 60? If Yes: 3. Is their SOS worse than Team B's SOS? If Yes, Fade team A; bet on Team B.

Nice post. That should, once and for all, clear up any confusion. Though the real trainwreck of misunderstanding was in the other thread, "This bowl system 11-1" but it was a mindboggling lot of confusion taking place over the course of several years.

 

[WannaBet888]

Question: How come Illinois was a play when their SOS was lower than LA Tech?


41 Louisiana Tech A = 75.48 8 5 64.33( 76) 0 1 | 0 2 | 76.79 36 | 77.15 37 | 69.79 6279 Illinois A = 66.45 6 6 72.10( 43) 0 1 | 0 3 | 65.13 84 | 65.45 82 | 69.82 61

 

[RangeRover]

Question: How come Illinois was a play when their SOS was lower than LA Tech?


41 Louisiana Tech A = 75.48 8 5 64.33( 76) 0 1 | 0 2 | 76.79 36 | 77.15 37 | 69.79 6279 Illinois A = 66.45 6 6 72.10( 43) 0 1 | 0 3 | 65.13 84 | 65.45 82 | 69.82 61

Because it was. Re-read the original post.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Are you taking teams that are in the Top 60? It only applies to those.

so it's only teams in the top 60.. then 60 and worse SoS..... my 2013 and 2012 backtest included all teams that qualified on the SoS (then at end i eliminted the games against one another).

i wondered why i came up with so many qualifying teams but the OP had so few.

bad news on the backtest is that the moderate to good winning ATS record for 2012 and 2013 was driven by fading non-bcs teams.. i don't have the numbers in front of me but i'd bet the bcs conference teams were a net loser.

 

[doogieboy]

2-2. Big day today

 

[sparticus]

bump

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I have the system at 2-1, but today he has Va. Tech, Boston College, Arizona State and USC.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

1-2 today? with USC to come?

one clarification: for the top 60 team with a weak SoS being a play because the other team has a worse SoS. does the top 60 ranked team with a weak SoS get to be the play if it plays an outside the top 60 team with a very weak SoS? or does it only become the play against another top 60 ranked team with a weaker SoS?

 

[dtmad]

1. It's a play against system, not a play on system. See my post 22. That's all there is to it. Add-ons, clarifications, "case studies", and additional tweaking questions are what have confused this tread and other related threads since this thing was first brought-up by someone six years ago.

2. Isn't it always true that when a system is discovered by someone, it always seems to work until everyone knows about it? It's 3-5 so far this season, and there's no way it can be of any value this year, as the best it can do is break even. And it will be suspect from now on.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

3-1 S/U. That is what his plays are about. They are not versus the spread. If you wagered on his plays S/U, you would be sitting at 6-2 according to my count. That is a winner. I believe that he has Arizona and Baylor left. These are by my count.

 

[dtmad]

This thread is about fading teams ATS. When did it become about S/U? No wonder it's so hard for me to explain it to people. This thread has turned into a big bucket of nonsense.

 

[GoSooners]

This thread is about fading teams ATS. When did it become about S/U? No wonder it's so hard for me to explain it to people. This thread has turned into a big bucket of nonsense.

Exactly. I could care less about straight up wins. The Pac-12 is 3-0 SU but only 1-2 ATS. The inferior Big 10 is 3-1 ATS. The ACC is 3-0 ATS as a dog and 0-3 SU and ATS as a favorite! This is a board about beating the spread. Not a bunch of chalk plays. The only time I care about that is when I have the winner and it's a pickem game. Which is few and far between in these bowls.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i agree it gets confusing/muddled with too many cooks (incl. me).

but is there a definitive original source? or is it just a general idea with now a whole bunch of slight variations?

 

[dtmad]

I did not invent this thing, I just understand it. PLEASE read my post (#22), this thread. Read it. Try it. No variations, no confusion. Test it out. No variations, no confusion, step by step procedure. ...I almost deleted this post. It's just not worth communicating.

 

[isellgel]

So what games qualify the rest of the bowl season? I saw a list in the early posts of Arizona and Baylor. TIA.

 

[dtmad]

Baylor and Arizona. If they both beat the spread the system will be 5-5!!!

 

[tennbigcountry]

Based on this system the Tennessee Vols should be a pick. Tennessee is ranked 30th in the Sagarin Ratings and Iowa is ranked 43rd. Tennessee's SOS rating is 7th and Iowa's SOS is 61st. Both teams are in the top 60 of the Sagarin Ratings and Iowa has a SOS that is worse than 60.