The Economist puts Trumps chances of re-election at 4percent

[MAGAking1]

Hey mag.

Why are the polls fake ?
What is the motivation for these pollsters to put their name and reputation on the line only to be wrong ?
Do you think Nate Silver wanted to be wrong with his predictions 4 years ago ?

He was almost god like 8 years ago predicting the election correctly in all 50 states .

Then his rep took a huge hit when trump lost even though he did give trump a 30% chance on Election Day which is not a low number .


If you think these polls are rigged what’s the point ?

Why would they be rigged ?

I would think Trump being down In the polls would only make trump supporters show up in larger numbers

There are many reason and It is too much to type out. If you want a better understanding of the polling business then see video in post 2.

On some levels the polling business is like the sports service business. The video is long, but if you just start watching you will learn quite a bit in the first 15 minutes or so. They can help you understand better than I can and in less time.

 

[REDEYE]

I think flawed polls is a better term than fake polls.

 

[Louie12]

Guess he should just pack up his bags and stop campaigningface)(*^%

The info looks legit and the presenter seems like a generally fair guy using "facts" to back up his arguments.

The main thing I hear about how bad Trump's chances are is that last time polls only showed Hillary with a 3-4 pt lead vs
the 8 to 9pt lead they show for Biden now. So they say even if the polls are wrong then it doesnt matter because Biden is SO far ahead.

But here is one thing they havent even considered. The polling methods combined with the strong anti conservative political climate has made these POLLS even MORE unreliable. They might think they are working with a say a 2 to 4 percent margin of error when in fact that error might be closer to double digits:think2:.

We will find out in a week. I am very confident that the polls are much further off than some think. If Biden were REALLY ahead by that much it is hard to imagine that he markets would only have him as roughly a -200 or so favorite.

sportsbooks are trying to make a profit, plain and simple. and they know the prices theyre putting out are duping people into playing on trump. guarantee you vegas will profit off a biden win

 

[REDEYE]

sportsbooks are trying to make a profit, plain and simple. and they know the prices theyre putting out are duping people into playing on trump. guarantee you vegas will profit off a biden win

Lol. Can't take election bets in Vegas. Not sure how they profit ?

 

[MAGAking1]

sportsbooks are trying to make a profit, plain and simple. and they know the prices theyre putting out are duping people into playing on trump. guarantee you vegas will profit off a biden win

Again you display your ignorance. You are taking nonsense.

Why is Biden only about -200 when he should be -2000 based on him being a 95 percent chance to win.
Wouldnt they get more money on Trump if the gave people +500 instead of +200or so. hno:


Also the video I was suggesting for an alternate view of what is going on is in post 3.

 

[Louie12]

Again you display your ignorance. You are taking nonsense.

Why is Biden only about -200 when he should be -2000 based on him being a 95 percent chance to win.
Wouldnt they get more money on Trump if the gave people +500 instead of +200or so. hno:


Also the video I was suggesting for an alternate view of what is going on is in post 3.

i think they do it becuz people will get get scared if they see +500. +200 signals a much more legitimate shot and hooks more action in, since its still a "good price".

this is not sportsbooks' specialty. why trust sportsbooks to reflect true probability if they were so off in 2016? sportsbooks were way more incorrect than a guy like nate silver.

and youre right it's not "vegas" but bookies in general who do take action @redeye

 

[MAGAking1]

i think they do it becuz people will get get scared if they see +500. +200 signals a much more legitimate shot and hooks more action in, since its still a "good price".

That is really dumb.

 

[Louie12]

That is really dumb.

it's my opinion. i think books are making it look more competitive than it really is.

why do you think trump is going to win?

 

[Louie12]

trump basically needs to win 8-9 of 13 "swing states", and hes pretty clearly trailing in all but 3 of them.

possible he wins more. decent chance he does. but doubt it

 

[SgtLanquel]

Hey mag.

Why are the polls fake ?
What is the motivation for these pollsters to put their name and reputation on the line only to be wrong ?
Do you think Nate Silver wanted to be wrong with his predictions 4 years ago ?

He was almost god like 8 years ago predicting the election correctly in all 50 states .

Then his rep took a huge hit when trump lost even though he did give trump a 30% chance on Election Day which is not a low number .


If you think these polls are rigged what’s the point ?

Why would they be rigged ?

I would think Trump being down In the polls would only make trump supporters show up in larger numbers

Polling is a billion dollar industry and for most operations politics is less than 10% of their client base

To employ sloppy or haphazard methods will cost such businesses tens to hundreds of millions of dollars after November 2020

The people most critical of true professional polling agencies are clearly people who have absolutely no knowledge of the true inner workings

 

[SgtLanquel]

The simple reason why "sportsbooks" only show -200 when polling actuaries have it leaning towards an "80% chance" is because the books have enough people wagering Trump to hold their odds at the -200 range

Additionally and likely more pertinent is that political bets are highly limited and serve as a true loss leader for sportsbooks wishing to draw more traffic to their site for increased betting of Sports

 

[CHOPTALK]

The simple reason why "sportsbooks" only show -200 when polling actuaries have it leaning towards an "80% chance" is because the books have enough people wagering Trump to hold their odds at the -200 range

Additionally and likely more pertinent is that political bets are highly limited and serve as a true loss leader for sportsbooks wishing to draw more traffic to their site for increased betting of Sports

Do you think people that bet on sports at offshore sports books have a trump lean ?
And if so why ?


Why would people who bet on sports have such a differing opinion on the election then the people who get polled ?

I remember back in the Bush days the Republican Party was considered to be very anti sports betting .

 

[SgtLanquel]

Do you think people that bet on sports at offshore sports books have a trump lean ?
And if so why ?


Why would people who bet on sports have such a differing opinion on the election then the people who get polled ?

I remember back in the Bush days the Republican Party was considered to be very anti sports betting .

Given the low limits I would submit increased action on Tiny is little more than a bettor "taking a shot" on a plus money payback

 

[$tinky]

Do you think people that bet on sports at offshore sports books have a trump lean ?
And if so why ?


Why would people who bet on sports have such a differing opinion on the election then the people who get polled ?


I remember back in the Bush days the Republican Party was considered to be very anti sports betting .

Democrats only bet on credit.

 

[Railbird]

Hey mag.

Why are the polls fake ?
What is the motivation for these pollsters to put their name and reputation on the line only to be wrong ?
Do you think Nate Silver wanted to be wrong with his predictions 4 years ago ?

He was almost god like 8 years ago predicting the election correctly in all 50 states .

Then his rep took a huge hit when trump lost even though he did give trump a 30% chance on Election Day which is not a low number .


If you think these polls are rigged what’s the point ?

Why would they be rigged ?

I would think Trump being down In the polls would only make trump supporters show up in larger numbers

He DECIDED to be a HOMOSEXUAL. HIS entire life is a LIE. Get a friggin clue dude

 

[metro]

rail bird !