One striking thing about Marshall's offense is that I don't rate them to have had a bad game either running or passing the ball for the entire season. Not once! That being said, they didn't have any really good offensive days versus any good/top 40 defenses. The good news is that NIU doesn't have a great defense. I currently rank them 91st, but NIU's pass defense was much improved in the second half of the season -- as good of a turn around as any team in CFB, really. Their run defense is still vulnerable, though they had their best game of the season in week 14 against Western Michigan (who are just an average running team).
Defensively, Marshall hasn't faced many good offenses. Western Kentucky shredded Marshall both on the ground and through the air. NIU's passing game isn't anywhere near as good as Western Kentucky's, but NIU's run game is better, so they should test Marshall plenty on the ground.
In the end Marshall has the much more talented offense, but their passing game has not done as well in their last few games. Their defense isn't playing great either, which is why they've either lost outright or failed to cover as double digit opening dogs, whereas earlier in the season (against weaker teams) they were.
I still like Marshall to cover, and have them in a teaser, but am going to pass on making a regular spread play on them, as NIU as a team was heading in a better direction as a team than Marshall was down the stretch.
I bought a couple of units on the opening Over 61.5, but the value is pretty much gone out of the total now at 67. I still think it will clear that number -- it may go way past the number, you never know with two uptempo teams with offensive advantages in the game.
No plays on this game, in spite of steam value on Navy and the Over now. San Diego State hasn't had a bad game of run defense this year (by my "worst" categorizing), and in fact had a very good game of run defense versus the similar run-heavy New Mexico. You saw how Navy struggled versus Army last week. Army was typically very bad against the run this year, but against a system they were familiar with and the ability to commit the extra defenders necessary they did a good job. San Diego State probably won't be far off of that with their track record and prep time.
That being said I'm not making a play on San Diego State, mainly because I don't think their passing game can be trusted. Yes, they were without their starting QB for a few games, but even still, the best pass defense they were able to exploit was Air Force, ranked 83rd against the pass. That was late in the season, and overall health (and the lack of which caused a lot of down games mid-season) and direction means one could probably give SDSU more credit for their current passing game than even the in-season trend bonus my projections give them.
Both of these teams have, on paper, significant advantages in the run match-up, and both should have decent success when passing the ball. It's the speed of play (both teams slow) and high % of overall run plays that scare me off of the Over value now as well.
Thanks, Chuck. Prooobably too much time left to hit that middle, but still a unit winner on the Over and the teaser with Utah State wins. Some unposted plays as well should win. Nice for a game to stick to the script, lol. I did really well the last season I did bowls (2 seasons ago), won something like 18 units with my standard 1 unit or less average bet. Stats traditionally perform better in bowls and playoffs, from my experience.
Western Kentucky is playing pretty good ball right now. They're offensively superior and defensively inferior to CMU. WKU's strength of schedule really wasn't that much harder than CMU's, by my calculations. WKU done a much better job with the turnover margin.
WKU's success passing the ball versus Marshall -- that's a strong element in their favor here, as CMU hasn't had defensive success against the pass versus a team anywhere near as good as WKU. I just don't think you can trust WKU's defense enough to back them here, though.
The small line value I'm showing on the Under is attributable to CMU's very slow offensive pace, and their preference to run when able. WKU does balance that out, to some degree, with their faster pace and pass happy offense. Both teams should have their best success passing the ball. Too unpredictable, this game, and too close to my numbers for a play.
Thoughts & Information:
Both teams have terrible pass defenses.
Fresno's passing game was terrible for most of the year, but played much better in their final three games, which is a good sign for them with even more time to prepare for this game.
Rice is very good at passing the ball, but for some reason they love to run the ball, which they are not good at (even in most of their losses they ran the ball heavily -- the one exception being in their final blowout loss to Louisiana Tech). I suspect they'll open it up and throw more in this game, especially if they have any capability of understanding Fresno's defensive weakness, lol.
I project both teams to have the same slightly below average ability to run the ball in this game.
These end of season trends favor the Over, so I'm not at all looking to take the small Under value that season stats indicate.
Fresno had a tougher strength of schedule by 12.6 points. Combine that with their improved passing game at the end of the year and I'm not leaning toward taking the season stats line value on Rice.
