The Cruncher's NCAA Week #15 Thread

[thecruncher]

Man, I'm starting to miss the semi-predictability of NFL games. Lines were tighter, but results didn't vary so widely. College football can be so unpredictable at times, lol.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: ORE vs. ARIZ Over 70

Lean Under in UCF vs ECU. Maybe a play if the line rises a couple of points.

Lean Over NIU vs BGSU. The line will undoubtably go up, not sure if it is worth trying to middle.

 

[thecruncher]

Jesus, that didn't take long to go up in the ARIZ/ORE, here come all the others...

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: SMU @ UCONN Under 46.5

 

[thecruncher]

Hmm, that's all I really like.

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, NIU vs BGSU insta-jumped two points to 59.5. Definitely passing on that now.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1/2 Unit: UCF @ ECU Under 55

Adding for 1/4 Unit each: UCF +6, ML +195

UCF playing the better ball of these two teams in the 2nd half of the season. ECU's pass defense has been quite vulnerable, and UCF is only good at passing the ball. If ECU is smart they'll favor the run in this game, as UCF is very hard to pass against. Both teams have played Tulsa recently, and UCF did a tremendous job shutting down their passing game. ECU couldn't and Tulsa hung around to cover as a large dog. When you look at Tulsa's passing statistics, they've been very good in the 2nd half of the season, with the one exception glaring exception being when they played UCF.

I looked deeper at Tulsa's statistics because UCF has faced the weakest schedule of passing offenses of all teams in FBS, by my ratings. I wanted to see if there was evidence that UCF could have good defensive success against a passing offense much better than what they usually face. Seeing as how they've been the only ones to shut down Tulsa's passing game in a long time, I think that yes, they can stop ECU from going off.

 

[r.a.]

I said I would apologize if it appeard that I was wrong and it does appear so. While I still believe that you wager very little money and have no idea of how to play this game, I will apologize for my earlier remarks. Now I am currently 8-5 posting picks in here. Not a lot of picks, but it is still over 60%, and you will not come close to that. FYI, I am at 57.29% for the entire current season, lower than my record in here. Please do not tell me what the best way to wager is. You claim to be an expert, but you did not even know what GOY wagering was until I told you. You never play middles. There are many other wagers that you know nothing about, or you would be playing them. I have been doing this a lot longer than you have. I probably have forgotten more about College Football than you have ever known. Next year I may keep track of all of my wagers, and all of your wagers and we will see who comes out on top. I may also keep track of my College Bowl wagers. I will keep track of yours also. You are getting off cheap. Learning about wagers that you would never make because you did not know they even existed. Watching a person who has only had one losing season since 1971 work. Understanding the thinking of a real player, not just someone who like to bet 5 and 10 bucks just so he can post and try to be important. I know you are from Oregon and that explains a lot, but I expect more out of you, like posting your record.

Just when I think you couldn't be a bigger douchebag you prove me wrong. Whether he bets ten dollars or ten thousand dollars on a game is so totally irrelevant to the information he brings to this forum. Just the like teenager who brags about all the girls he beds I am put off by some of the people who insist on telling us the large sums of money they wager on games. It's the quiet, low key guys, the Cruncher, who engender trust with their expertise. I find it curious that you seem so concerned about the amount he wagers. My guess is that your wagers consist of the allowance your wife gives you each week so that you won't annoy her. Why don't you post your tickets like he did?? Those ten dollar wagers would impress the shit out of me. Do all of us a favor ... stay the phuck out of his threads as you contribute absolutely nothing of substance by repeating your diatribe over and over.

 

[thecruncher]

Meh, line on UCF went up to +7. I'll tell you, I'm not making this play because of spreadsheet line value -- that has the line pretty darn near the -7. I'm trying to go "inside the numbers" with this play. I'm going to add a 1/2 unit at +7.5 (-120) -- that way if UCF loses by 7 I'll only lose a little juice, lol. I'll post my game sheet for this game in just a second.

 

[tmader7]

Well, it's been over 20 minutes, I'm waiting, LOL. You really need to play hoops with me, making tons on the NCAAB.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

Looking at the in-season trends, ECU fares a lot worse than UCF, and you can see that ECU's offense has come back down to earth after a phenomenal start to the season. In their first 5 games they rushed for more than 5 yards per carry in 4 of them (and more than 6 in three!). Since then, however, ECU has failed to rush for more than 5 ypc in their last 5 games. They haven't been horrible by any means, just not as good. Their passing offense has tailed off over that same stretch, as well. That being said, ECU has been fairly consistent, they're yet to lay an absolute stinker of a game on offense.

I only rate UCF's defense 51st best, because they've played the worst schedule of offenses of any team in football. Their pass defense I rank 23rd, and their run defense 65th. UCF does rate #1 in fewest yards per pass allowed overall, at 5 (but as I said -- weak schedule). UCF has played only one team that averages more than 7 yards per pass this season (NCAAF average is around 7.2), and that was BYU with Christian Stewart's first full start after Taysom Hill's injury against Utah State. In UCF's defense of their defense, as I mentioned in a prior post, they're the only defense to shut down Tulsa's passing game in Tulsa's last 6 or 7 games, at least.

UCF has crushed 4 of their last 5 opponent's and won of their last 8 after dropping it's first two games to Penn State and Missouri. One thing they can't do is run very well and play keep away with the ball when having a big lead. They consistently average over a yard less per carry than their opponent's usually allow, as they tend to run a lot with the big leads, which is no surprise. If they happen to have a big lead in this game, great, that means they're covering, but if the game is close, as it should be, they'll be passing more, which is the best way to beat ECU's defense. UCF's passing game had been chugging along nicely until having a really poor game against USF last week. They aren't as consistent from week to week as ECU.

So there are the pros and cons, as best as I can an analyze it. We'll see what happens when I make a play with no spreadsheet value. Also, if the line rises above 56, I'll add another 1/2 unit to the Under, making it a full unit.

 

[thecruncher]

Well, it's been over 20 minutes, I'm waiting, LOL. You really need to play hoops with me, making tons on the NCAAB.

~T~

Well, Jeez, I obviously like action, lol. You posting them in the college hoops forum?

 

[tmader7]

Just posted tomorrow's play, but I can send you a pm if you like. Love the colors, really bringing the Christmas spirit into play, lol.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

This one will be short and sweet. NIU has figured out their pass defense. They were really bad the first half of the season, and they've been been pretty good the second half. BGSU has a bad passing game. Both teams should have decent success running the ball. I was fortunate enough to get NIU -2.5 when it opened, but it's still worth betting at -6.5 or -7 (I'd always buy on or off of 7 for ten cents).

 

[thecruncher]

I don't see Arizona slowing down or beating Oregon's offense for a 3rd straight time at Levi's stadium on Friday. Arizona's pass defense has improved as the season has gone along, but Oregon's offense is on another level. Oregon has moved the ball very well against top ten rush and pass defenses this year (MSU and STAN) -- there's honestly no one out there that can hold them to less than 30 points. Arizona will be without their best long ball receiver Samajie Grant this game because of legal problems. They lost another decent receiver, Nate Phillips, a few weeks ago. Arizona's offense has been good the last couple of weeks, even when QB Solomon missed some time in the 2nd half against Utah with an injury. Oregon's defense doesn't have much shut down power, so Arizona should get their scores in. Both of these teams play extremely fast on offense, which adds value to the Over. I'm not at all surprised to see that the total got bet up quickly upon release, and for the Oregon line to start moving up as well.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 3/5th Unit: CIN -6.5 vs HOU

 

[tmader7]

What are you figuring for a total in this UConn/SMU game? BOL has it listed at 45+, I'm thinking about betting the whole freakin account on the under. Tell me I shouldn't.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

What are you figuring for a total in this UConn/SMU game? BOL has it listed at 45+, I'm thinking about betting the whole freakin account on the under. Tell me I shouldn't.

~T~

Uconn 28-10 ish.

I like the Under quite a bit.

 

[tmader7]

Uconn 28-10 ish.

I like the Under quite a bit.

There's simply no way I don't hammer this. Either the books are playing some three card monty with me, or I might actually know what I'm doing here. Hope it snows like hell, LOL.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1.5 Units: KSU +7.5 @ BAY (-105 BM)

 

[thecruncher]

Down a few units on week #14, but I actually feel pretty good about the changes I made to the spreadsheet.

Highlights:
LSU - strong spreadsheet play, they should've waxed TA&M by way more than they did, based on total yardage.
SMU Under - I mentioned that SMU would have to limit turnovers on their own end to help the side and Under. Well, they did have one that cost them the smaller side play, but the full unit play on the Under still came in.
MICH - 21 points was indeed too many to give MICH, though 3 straight touchdowns in the second half by OSU pushed the number until MICH got the backdoor score.
NCST - the spreadsheet was all over the big advantage NCST had in the run game versus UNC, and it was the hammer with which they obliterated the Tar Heels.
VAN - old version or updated version, either way the spreadsheet really liked VAN getting more than two touchdowns in this game, and it was close the whole way.
HAW - getting 12 versus a weak FRES team, Hawaii had to rattle off 21 unanswered fourth quarter points to get the cover.
UTEP Under - straight money the last 3 weeks.
MASS Over - only 13 points in the first half with lots of dropped balls, but then Buffalo and MASS finally got down to scoring, with MASS getting a last minute+ TD to get the Over 55.5 that looked so hopeless at half.

Low Lights:
Defenses, why hast thou forsaken me? There was a handful of match-ups that really favored the Under...and then the offenses really went to town in these games while the defenses watched in awe. I mean, these were some solid Under teams like UTSA and Rice, all of a sudden in big scoring games. BALL @ BGSU Under loses by just a score after 3 touchdowns were given up in the first two minutes of the game.

New Mexico State. Hey, we knew your defense was bad, but they didn't even bother showing up, letting an Arkansas State team that had really been struggling look like world beaters for once.

I noticed a trend, of sorts, or maybe it was just bias, but awful teams on the road played extra awful in their final game of the season. Awful defenses, as well, no matter where they were. The effort just didn't look to be there for so many teams, and that shows up on defense where effort is half the battle.