The art of winning at sports gambling - Ill start a list, what can you add to it??

[MudSlideSlim]

everyone knows this but, never bet over your head. what does that mean? if you get nervous about an outcome of a game because of the money involved then you are betting over your head! example, if you have 5.00 dollars on a game would you get nervous? how about 50 or 500 or 5000? only you know what is your limit

[This message was edited by Mud Slide Slim on January 14, 2004 at 02:32 AM.]

 

[WildBill]

While I do agree people can go overboard, I tend to think a lot of people that do have experience and knowledge leave too much money on the table by trying to be too fine with their picks. When you are starting out, definitely be selective to a fault. When you have a pretty good feel of it and can spot many of the possible potholes on the board each night I usually advise to step out and play more games. Volume in positive expectation is what makes you profitable, the more you can get the better you will do. I know a lot of people that are proud of picking say 56% winners and they will tell you its because they are selective, but I will tell you this if you played the 54% and 55% plays you would be even more profitable, as long as you have a sufficient bankroll to handle the action.

 

[Railbird]

The key is to form a superior opinion, handicap officiating, and going to the games and or matches. I am finding it easy to win last 3 years. Also bet big during free money weeks. Free money weeks are as follows, rate them as A- almost like stealing, which happens during certain weeks of the year B. Will for sure win, but if you lose its by a hook. C. A 53-55% chance of winning, but risk short term volatility. Key is to look for diffrent levels of softness in lines.

Here is my A package

Little leauge baseball, bet on coach, pitching, and power hitting.

Wta tennis- If you want A level must have injury info and see obvious superior form in person.

NFL- Weeks 16 and 17 have always been free money

NCAA football- bowl season is free money also halftimes is free money during bowl season.

NCAA hoops- Its all very beatable, but especailly in Nov, Dec, and Mar. Bad coaches stay bad, they dont get better. stay away from maj conf games becasue refs giving out calls. I dont suggest this to others, you must know what to look for, and its not what the press tells you.

Arena football- free money

womens coll hoop- in tourney, prefer men coaches overthe women, and more physical team

Pick on bad linesmakers- perfect example is Chris at Olympic, the guy is basically a reject, he puts Stanford at 4-1 to win Pac10, puts USC at something better than 4-1 to win orange bowl next year. Joey bagels has also been known to have 2$ favs as underdogs. It is usually special events were you find the free money.


B edgers are as follow

Grinding out baseball money is long term but show longterm profit, but with setbacks that can be annoying, not the free money that is in my A package. But very beatable and I have never not shown profit, but I cant stomach baseball players or fans so I dont enjoy it. Unless Pedro,Clemens is hitting someone in head, I am a big fan of pitchers, I hate hitters, spit tobacco, and fantasy baseball players.

ATP tennis- couple of points here and there sometimes make diffrence, is beatable but can be volatile. Injury plays are in my A package.

C package- May show long term profit, may not. If you have a degenerate side which most do you bet for action on tv games. I look at attendance of capacity and ticket demand, this will sawy officiating, humans conform and the criteria for being an official demands that you are a conformist of the utmost type. The degenrates are usually the best handicappers, the key is to scale back sketchy plays. If you are in touch with your feminine side which is left or right brain you will be superior.

Vangogh cut his ear off he wanted to win so bad. Never gamble for comradirie because you will lose, your best freind is your tomatoe juice, also make sure you give part of your winnings anonomysly to something that is good, you will get blessed because of it.

 

[MudSlideSlim]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Wta tennis- If you want A level must have injury info and see obvious superior form in person<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

railbird, do you still count 'walk overs' as winners?

 

[TheMDKid]

Railbird touched on it, and I will add my 2 cents - know the referees! There are literally tons of statistics on refs going back several years in baseball/hoop/foots/and even hockey, and it is invaluable info if you know how to use it. Believe me, some of these guys have shown themselves to be anything but impartial over the years. It wasn't a bad call that cost you last night's game, it was a failure on your part to realize that THAT ref is a bigtime homer, or that THAT ump has a tiny strikezone.

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

Bet with a clear head and don't chase!

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

I used to party extensively and think i was going to win the next day. sorry, that doesn't work. Calculate your bets diligently and you will win.

 

[pja101]

Mostly good info here, I'll add a few:

1. Don't pay touts or tail others.

2. Understand the importance of line shopping and having multiple outs.
-3(-105) and -3(-115) are not the same, despite the fact that the favorite is asked to cover three points in both. And don't use the rational that only losers pay vig, because it's wrong.

3. Don't increase the number of wagers during a winning streak, and conversely, don't limit the number of wagers during a losing streak. Value is value is value.

 

[Dante]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by valueman:
all systems are a load of crap.

only way to win is to have better analysing skills than the odds makers and therefore you will be able to consistently bet at odds greater than the real odds.

discipline, money management etc are important but worthless if you can't consistently beat the odds compiler.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I agree with valueman here...you need to be able to "see" a line is off

 

[dogdoug]

1) bet only games that fall under strict criterion as plays whatever criterion it is you have established (I'm mainly a systems player).
2) bet the same amount according to bankroll on each play; never assuming that certain plays are better than others.
3) trust your judgment and have faith in your research that put you on your plays to begin with. Might as well not even play if you can't trust your own conclusions.

 

[sherman]

Don't bet parlays or teasers!!!!!!!!!!

 

[sherman]

Don't bet parlays or teasers!!!!!!!!!!

 

[NoTax]

1. Systems Work
2. Enjoy your winnings
3. If you have a bad day take it out on some pussy

 

[Mr.Jones]

Lots of good info in this thread. I can add this off the top of my head.

NCAA hoops is my best example of this. Using the money management ideas [no chasing, etc]and much of the other sound advice listed above, you can be a winner.

If you are fortunate enough and can afford to do nothing else for four months; if you are willing to work at numbers for over twelve hours or more every day; if you can go into it without being burned out from foots; if you have a large enough bankroll; if you can create an environment with no distractions from the outside world, you can be a big winner in college baskets.

Having said that though, you may be become a big loser in other areas of your life.

I have for the most part stayed away from college baskets this year because I have had distractions and was also not willing to pay that price again even if I didn't. I may never be again. I don't know. Maybe next year and then again maybe not. I am maybe just getting too old.

Furthermore, I'm at the age now where I'm simply far more comfortable with a dollar or two and sometimes even less, than I am with a dime or two and sometimes even more. I now feel it is far more important for me to hang around hoping to add a few more years to my life than it is to hang on the edge of my seat hoping to add a few more dimes to my bankroll.

The irony of this perhaps is that for most by the time you have the time, discipline, experience and money, you may no longer have the hunger, the health, the energy, or the nerves of steel that you need.

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by NoTax:
1. Systems Work
2. Enjoy your winnings
3. If you have a bad day take it out on some pussy

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
#3 works for me.

 

[dogball]

lmfao No Tax

 

[SportSavant]

smoke lots of dope...

 

[UWinSports]

Never Gamble while intoxicated.

 

[bryan305]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by AnthonyRichkas:
Never Gamble while intoxicated.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

True

I did well on tuesday night, so I had a drink to reward myself...right before I started placing my bets for wednesday...yeah

 

[Mr.Jones]

I either win, lose or push when drunk. Reckon I'd do darn near the same if I wasn't.