If you flop 4 to a flush than you are exactly going to make the flush 19.15% of the time on the turn. How do you get it? Divide 9 into 47 for the turn and 9 into 46 for the river. This is simple, there are 13 suited cards and there is 2 suited one's in your hand and the two on board of the same suit. Out of 13 (spades for example) when you take those 4 cards away it leaves 9 more of the suit you need to complete the flush. The 47 comes from out of the 52 card deck you only eliminate the cards you can see, take the 2 away you can see in your hand and the 3 on board (52-5 = 47).
On the river you will make your hand 19.57% of the time. Instead of 47 cards there is now only 46 cards as the turn card has been revealed. Divide 9 (possible winners) into 46 and you get that answer providing you didn't hit your flush on the turn.
On the river you will make your hand 19.57% of the time. Instead of 47 cards there is now only 46 cards as the turn card has been revealed. Divide 9 (possible winners) into 46 and you get that answer providing you didn't hit your flush on the turn.
McIrish-
I'm with lurker on this one. Your math is fine for each INDIVIDUAL (turn OR river) event but when you COMBINE the two events, you have odds of something like 2 to 1 (against) to make your flush once you flop four to a flush. Bottom line is that you have TWO shots to make the flush. Mathematically (according to my recollection of my intro stats class from YEARS ago), you have to ADD the probabilities of EACH individual event so add the 19.57% for the turn PLUS the 19.17% for the river and you get the combined probablilty of hitting the flush once you flop four to the flush.
I'm with lurker on this one. Your math is fine for each INDIVIDUAL (turn OR river) event but when you COMBINE the two events, you have odds of something like 2 to 1 (against) to make your flush once you flop four to a flush. Bottom line is that you have TWO shots to make the flush. Mathematically (according to my recollection of my intro stats class from YEARS ago), you have to ADD the probabilities of EACH individual event so add the 19.57% for the turn PLUS the 19.17% for the river and you get the combined probablilty of hitting the flush once you flop four to the flush.
Swami - I am just stating the odds of you making the flush on each betting round. Of course that is not the odds of you making the flush for the entire hand. The odds are not stagnant for both the turn and the river though, they are two independant events. What do you disagree with that I wrote?
WELL these are nice facts about LOW limit holdem.
But I want to make sure that everyone knows the difference between LOW limit and NO LIMIT like the play on TV. It is a TOTALLY different ballgame on TV guys.
I have played no limit holdem for many years and I can tell you that the above rules dont apply in those games if you have a full 10 person table or at least 7 people.
The betting change in these cases depending on who is still in your game
But I want to make sure that everyone knows the difference between LOW limit and NO LIMIT like the play on TV. It is a TOTALLY different ballgame on TV guys.
I have played no limit holdem for many years and I can tell you that the above rules dont apply in those games if you have a full 10 person table or at least 7 people.
The betting change in these cases depending on who is still in your game
Lurker - those numbers are exactly right, I just rounded up. Good point on implied odds, we could do another whole thread on pot odds, implied odds etc....
Fishhead - surely you are joking? LOL. I'm not in the top 300 players on this site, let alone the world. You like to bust my balls don't you.
Fishhead - surely you are joking? LOL. I'm not in the top 300 players on this site, let alone the world. You like to bust my balls don't you.
pat irish, swami.
read my post further up.
when u combine the events u r 2.58 to 1
1/3.58 = 28% according to my calculations.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> If you flop 4 to the flush you are a 1.85 to 1 dog to hit your flush on either of the last 2 cards.
Thats 38.7% chance you will complete. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
a 1.85 to 1 dog as a % is 35.1
i'm interested to see how you got the probability of 1.85 to 1
there's only so much you can learn from reading poker strategy, but still, why educate people?
htrc, people from 1 day might pull a move on you that you taught them, now that's a funny thought.
read my post further up.
when u combine the events u r 2.58 to 1
1/3.58 = 28% according to my calculations.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> If you flop 4 to the flush you are a 1.85 to 1 dog to hit your flush on either of the last 2 cards.
Thats 38.7% chance you will complete. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
a 1.85 to 1 dog as a % is 35.1
i'm interested to see how you got the probability of 1.85 to 1
there's only so much you can learn from reading poker strategy, but still, why educate people?
htrc, people from 1 day might pull a move on you that you taught them, now that's a funny thought.
I would like to clear up a mistake I have seen about 38 percent.
If you flop 4 to a flush or straight, the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:
35.0% or 1.85 to 1
If you flop 4 to a straight the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:
31.5% or 2.17 to 1
I would like to note that adding 19% and 19% as some of you have done to get 38%. You can't just add it like that. The correct equation is 35.0 percent or 1.85 to 1.
If you flop 4 to a flush or straight, the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:
35.0% or 1.85 to 1
If you flop 4 to a straight the odds of getting it on the turn or river are:
31.5% or 2.17 to 1
I would like to note that adding 19% and 19% as some of you have done to get 38%. You can't just add it like that. The correct equation is 35.0 percent or 1.85 to 1.
If you ask why you guys are wrong at 38%,
you must take 1 - the probability of not hitting your hand which would be:
1- (38/47)*(37/46) = 35%
or another way would be to take the probability of hitting it on the turn PLUS the probability of not hitting in on the turn AND hitting it on the river
9/47 + (38/47)*(9/46) = 35%
There are also other ways to do it but all basic probability. If you guys are interested in poker calculations it's important you learn probability theory.
you must take 1 - the probability of not hitting your hand which would be:
1- (38/47)*(37/46) = 35%
or another way would be to take the probability of hitting it on the turn PLUS the probability of not hitting in on the turn AND hitting it on the river
9/47 + (38/47)*(9/46) = 35%
There are also other ways to do it but all basic probability. If you guys are interested in poker calculations it's important you learn probability theory.
Those who chase straights and flushes make their way home on Grayhound busses.
One thing that nobody considered. You can come up with probability all day long, but on a hand by hand basis you'll never know how many cards of your suit have been mucked or in others hands.
Flushes are played based upon betting action (is it worth the call) and from the gut.
Also never raise or bet until you complete your st8/flush. You just decide if it's worth the call. Sitting back also takes the focus off your play.
One thing that nobody considered. You can come up with probability all day long, but on a hand by hand basis you'll never know how many cards of your suit have been mucked or in others hands.
Flushes are played based upon betting action (is it worth the call) and from the gut.
Also never raise or bet until you complete your st8/flush. You just decide if it's worth the call. Sitting back also takes the focus off your play.
I want 4-1 or more on my call and 4 cards *in* in order to chase. If it's close to 4-1 and the cards are going my way, or it's their money at the sitting, I'll chase it.
When it's your money, sit back and wait for *the nuts*, take your shots on their money.
Remember, if you find the finish line in this game...YOU LOSE!
When it's your money, sit back and wait for *the nuts*, take your shots on their money.
Remember, if you find the finish line in this game...YOU LOSE!
