CQ is wrong, I've lived in both these districts (currently in the 10th), I know these districts. I've worked for political campaigns in these districts. I've seen the private polling for both races as well as the public polling that has Barletta up 9. Bbut since you're so confident of CQ, I'll go whatever you want at O/U 1.5
Barletta and Hackett are winning.
Reading up on them they both seem competitive. I'd have to look at the money advantage & registration numbers to get a better idea. I know the HRCC is strapped so they could be blitzed in these districts.
You said at least 2. We will call 2 a push. Over 2 you win, under 2 I win.
I am out for the weekend, just say so in this thread if you want in and we'll agree on the stakes Monday.
You said at least 2. We will call 2 a push. Over 2 you win, under 2 I win.
I am out for the weekend, just say so in this thread if you want in and we'll agree on the stakes Monday.
I didn't realize it was Daily Kos until later on........
However, the same poll (both of them) did show her having high favorables the week before...I don't worry about the actual numbers other than it is dropping.
Other polls are showing the same thing though. CBS polls from last week showed it.
It's to be expected though as the initial europhia wears off....she still does wonders for the base
Anyways:
Sekrah: If you want it...I'll give you over 1.5 on those two seats.
Let me know and we can work out the stakes.
Why does Hackett have so much money? What does he do? If i'm reading opensecrets.org correctly, it seems he is pretty much self financed for the race so far.
Shorter...and shorter.........and shorter
Personally, I think the election comes down to Colorado and the Western state. More interested in Palin's numbers here than just a topline...Would like to see Palin #'s in Nevada, New Mexico, etc as well.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama opening up his biggest lead yet in the state over Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%.
Key finding: "Immediately after the Republican convention 41% of Coloradoans said John McCain's choice of Palin to join him on the ticket made them more likely to vote for him while 38% said it made them less likely to do so. Now the number of people saying Palin's selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain has climbed to 47% with the number of people viewing it favorably dropping to 38%."
"The movement over the last couple weeks has been particularly acute with independent voters. 56% of them say that the Palin choice makes them less likely to support McCain and what was a 49-38 lead for Obama with that group is now a 58-31 advantage."
Personally, I think the election comes down to Colorado and the Western state. More interested in Palin's numbers here than just a topline...Would like to see Palin #'s in Nevada, New Mexico, etc as well.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado shows Sen. Barack Obama opening up his biggest lead yet in the state over Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%.
Key finding: "Immediately after the Republican convention 41% of Coloradoans said John McCain's choice of Palin to join him on the ticket made them more likely to vote for him while 38% said it made them less likely to do so. Now the number of people saying Palin's selection makes them less likely to vote for McCain has climbed to 47% with the number of people viewing it favorably dropping to 38%."
"The movement over the last couple weeks has been particularly acute with independent voters. 56% of them say that the Palin choice makes them less likely to support McCain and what was a 49-38 lead for Obama with that group is now a 58-31 advantage."
the numbers cited here just don't make sense. Who are they polling? Democrats?
She's immensely popular, and it shows on the road and in the bank. I don't believe the more likely vs less likely numbers one iota, I'm calling bullshit.
The topline is right there with a few other CO polls released today.
The more/less/no difference is such a subjective thing. I'm just more interested in the drop off the prior poll from the SAME organization.
The one below notes people feel she was a "good choice", however less than Biden.
I really think she just energizes the base at the end of the day (which is important). I want to see more polls to see how she is playing with independents.
From a different Colorado Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.Com Poll
Colorado
Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent.
McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.
But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.
The more/less/no difference is such a subjective thing. I'm just more interested in the drop off the prior poll from the SAME organization.
The one below notes people feel she was a "good choice", however less than Biden.
I really think she just energizes the base at the end of the day (which is important). I want to see more polls to see how she is playing with independents.
From a different Colorado Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.Com Poll
Colorado
Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent.
McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.
But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.
Intersting Article by Gallup
Did Palin Help McCain Among White Women?
Obama’s problem with white men much bigger than that among white women
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- Did John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate lead to significant gains for McCain among white women? While this hypothesis fits easily into the media's coverage and the excitement around Palin's historic status as the first female Republican vice presidential candidate, continuing analysis of large Gallup Poll Daily tracking samples from recent weeks do not provide evidence to support it.
Gallup Daily tracking has shown some variation in support levels for the two candidates -- McCain and Barack Obama -- across the last month and a half, but the shifts in candidate preferences of white women do not appear to have been much different from those of all voters.
When Obama gained among all voters, he gained among white women. And when McCain gained among all voters -- in the week of Sept. 8-14 in particular -- he gained among white women as well. White women appear to have been lifted and set down by the same tidal patterns that affected all voters.
By the week of Sept. 15-21, a rising tide for Obama had in general lifted his strength among white women as much as it did among everyone else. Obama ended last week in a slightly stronger position among white women than was the case as the political conventions began -- in fact, coming within 2 points of McCain.
White Men More of a Problem for Obama Than White Women
From a more general perspective, Obama continues to do less well among white women than he does among women of other racial or ethnic backgrounds.
An aggregate of more than 23,000 interviews Gallup conducted with female registered voters between Aug. 1 and Sept. 21 shows McCain leading Obama by 47% to 42% among all white women, while McCain loses significantly among black, Hispanic, and Asian women.
So, in this regard, Obama has a problem among white women, regardless of whether it was exacerbated by McCain's selection of Palin as his vice presidential running mate. But, from a different perspective, and reflecting the fairly normal gender-gap pattern of recent years, Obama's position among white women is much better than his position among white men, among whom he trails McCain by a large 56% to 35% margin.
Thus, although Obama has a problem among all white voters, in the sense that he loses among them to McCain, his relative standing among white women is certainly better than it is among white men.
Discussion
It has been well-established that Obama does not do as well among white women as he does among Hispanic, black, and Asian women.
This fact, however, predates McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate. The data reviewed here suggest that Palin's presence on the GOP ticket did not appear to shift white women disproportionately toward McCain, nor did it appear to engender more loyalty to McCain among white women over the past week when the general trend was toward Obama. As is true for the entire electorate, McCain now is doing slightly less well among this group than he did before the two conventions began.
More generally, commentators who opine that Obama has a problem among white women are correct as far as that goes. Obama does less well among whites in general and less well among white women than among women of other racial and ethnic backgrounds.
However, commentators would be perhaps more on target by pointing out Obama's larger problem among white men, among whom he is losing by 35% to McCain's 56%.
And, of course, white women are not a monolithic voting group. There are big differences in the level of support given to both candidates within subgroups of the white female population. For example, data show that Obama has significant problems among white women who are not college graduates -- among whom he has been losing to McCain by a 50% to 37% margin over the last month and a half -- and among married white women, among whom McCain has been winning by a 17-point margin, 54% to 37%.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 47,087 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 1-Sept. 21, 2008. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points. Margins of sampling errors vary for individual subsamples.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
Did Palin Help McCain Among White Women?
Obama’s problem with white men much bigger than that among white women
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- Did John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate lead to significant gains for McCain among white women? While this hypothesis fits easily into the media's coverage and the excitement around Palin's historic status as the first female Republican vice presidential candidate, continuing analysis of large Gallup Poll Daily tracking samples from recent weeks do not provide evidence to support it.
Gallup Daily tracking has shown some variation in support levels for the two candidates -- McCain and Barack Obama -- across the last month and a half, but the shifts in candidate preferences of white women do not appear to have been much different from those of all voters.
When Obama gained among all voters, he gained among white women. And when McCain gained among all voters -- in the week of Sept. 8-14 in particular -- he gained among white women as well. White women appear to have been lifted and set down by the same tidal patterns that affected all voters.
By the week of Sept. 15-21, a rising tide for Obama had in general lifted his strength among white women as much as it did among everyone else. Obama ended last week in a slightly stronger position among white women than was the case as the political conventions began -- in fact, coming within 2 points of McCain.
White Men More of a Problem for Obama Than White Women
From a more general perspective, Obama continues to do less well among white women than he does among women of other racial or ethnic backgrounds.
An aggregate of more than 23,000 interviews Gallup conducted with female registered voters between Aug. 1 and Sept. 21 shows McCain leading Obama by 47% to 42% among all white women, while McCain loses significantly among black, Hispanic, and Asian women.
So, in this regard, Obama has a problem among white women, regardless of whether it was exacerbated by McCain's selection of Palin as his vice presidential running mate. But, from a different perspective, and reflecting the fairly normal gender-gap pattern of recent years, Obama's position among white women is much better than his position among white men, among whom he trails McCain by a large 56% to 35% margin.
Thus, although Obama has a problem among all white voters, in the sense that he loses among them to McCain, his relative standing among white women is certainly better than it is among white men.
Discussion
It has been well-established that Obama does not do as well among white women as he does among Hispanic, black, and Asian women.
This fact, however, predates McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate. The data reviewed here suggest that Palin's presence on the GOP ticket did not appear to shift white women disproportionately toward McCain, nor did it appear to engender more loyalty to McCain among white women over the past week when the general trend was toward Obama. As is true for the entire electorate, McCain now is doing slightly less well among this group than he did before the two conventions began.
More generally, commentators who opine that Obama has a problem among white women are correct as far as that goes. Obama does less well among whites in general and less well among white women than among women of other racial and ethnic backgrounds.
However, commentators would be perhaps more on target by pointing out Obama's larger problem among white men, among whom he is losing by 35% to McCain's 56%.
And, of course, white women are not a monolithic voting group. There are big differences in the level of support given to both candidates within subgroups of the white female population. For example, data show that Obama has significant problems among white women who are not college graduates -- among whom he has been losing to McCain by a 50% to 37% margin over the last month and a half -- and among married white women, among whom McCain has been winning by a 17-point margin, 54% to 37%.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 47,087 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 1-Sept. 21, 2008. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points. Margins of sampling errors vary for individual subsamples.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.com.
Well anymore doubts?
Latest Quinnipiac in 3 key swing state.
Florida:
Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11
Ohio
Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.
PA
Palin's favorability is a negative 34 - 37 percent, down from 39 - 26 percent.
It's not just Quinnipiac either...it's across the board.
Pew:
There is a clear correlation between views of Palin’s qualifications and support for McCain, which may be hurting the GOP candidate. Fewer people see her as qualified to become president, and the balance of opinion toward Palin has grown more negative since early September. Unfavorable views of the Alaska governor have increased among most demographic and political groups, with GOP voters a notable exception. Currently, a narrow majority of independent voters (54%) express a favorable view of Palin, while 37% are unfavorable. In early September, positive impressions of Palin among independents outnumbered negative opinions by greater than two-to-one (60% vs. 27%).
Latest Quinnipiac in 3 key swing state.
Florida:
Palin gets a negative 36 - 39 percent favorability, down from 47 - 23 percent September 11
Ohio
Palin's favorability is split 35 - 35 percent, compared to 41 - 22 percent last time.
PA
Palin's favorability is a negative 34 - 37 percent, down from 39 - 26 percent.
It's not just Quinnipiac either...it's across the board.
Pew:
There is a clear correlation between views of Palin’s qualifications and support for McCain, which may be hurting the GOP candidate. Fewer people see her as qualified to become president, and the balance of opinion toward Palin has grown more negative since early September. Unfavorable views of the Alaska governor have increased among most demographic and political groups, with GOP voters a notable exception. Currently, a narrow majority of independent voters (54%) express a favorable view of Palin, while 37% are unfavorable. In early September, positive impressions of Palin among independents outnumbered negative opinions by greater than two-to-one (60% vs. 27%).
More from Pew
The Vice Presidential Candidates
In advance of Thursday’s vice presidential debate, a majority of Americans (63%) say that Joe Biden is qualified to serve as president if that becomes necessary, but fewer than four-in-ten (37%) say Sarah Palin is qualified to take on the job.
Majorities of Republicans (55%), Democrats (78%) and independents (56%) say Obama’s vice-presidential nominee is qualified to hold the office of president. In contrast, though a majority of Republicans say Palin is qualified (68%), more than three-quarters of Democrats (77%) and a plurality of independents (47%) do not believe she is qualified for the presidency.
Compared with public opinion immediately following Palin’s nomination and convention speech, far fewer now hold the view that she is qualified to be president. More than half (52%) viewed her as qualified earlier in the month.
The decline in the belief that Palin is qualified to become president has been broad-based. While roughly two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say their party’s candidate is qualified, that represents a substantial decrease since early September (16 points). In addition, only about a third of women (34%) say Palin is qualified to step in as president, down from 52% a few weeks ago. Women are now slightly less likely than men to view Palin as qualified; in early September, identical percentages of women and men said she was qualified to be president if the need arose.
Views of Palin
Views of Sarah Palin are less favorable than they were shortly after the Republican convention. Palin’s favorability ratings are little changed from the Sept. 9-14 survey (54% to 51%), but 40% of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Alaska governor, compared with 32% earlier in the month.
By contrast, views of her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, remain virtually unchanged over the same period (53% favorable now, 52% in early September).
Opinions of Palin have declined across most groups, although Republican opinion about the Alaska governor has remained relatively stable. Views of the vice presidential nominee, which were already divided along party lines, have become more polarized. About seven-in-ten Democratic voters (69%) now hold a negative view of Palin, up 10 points from earlier in the month; just 21% say they have a favorable opinion of her. Among independent voters, unfavorable opinions have increased from 27% in mid-September to 37%. Nearly nine-in-ten Republicans (87%) continue to express a favorable opinion of Palin, which is largely unchanged from earlier in the month.
The Vice Presidential Candidates
In advance of Thursday’s vice presidential debate, a majority of Americans (63%) say that Joe Biden is qualified to serve as president if that becomes necessary, but fewer than four-in-ten (37%) say Sarah Palin is qualified to take on the job.
Majorities of Republicans (55%), Democrats (78%) and independents (56%) say Obama’s vice-presidential nominee is qualified to hold the office of president. In contrast, though a majority of Republicans say Palin is qualified (68%), more than three-quarters of Democrats (77%) and a plurality of independents (47%) do not believe she is qualified for the presidency.
Compared with public opinion immediately following Palin’s nomination and convention speech, far fewer now hold the view that she is qualified to be president. More than half (52%) viewed her as qualified earlier in the month.
The decline in the belief that Palin is qualified to become president has been broad-based. While roughly two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say their party’s candidate is qualified, that represents a substantial decrease since early September (16 points). In addition, only about a third of women (34%) say Palin is qualified to step in as president, down from 52% a few weeks ago. Women are now slightly less likely than men to view Palin as qualified; in early September, identical percentages of women and men said she was qualified to be president if the need arose.
Views of Palin
Views of Sarah Palin are less favorable than they were shortly after the Republican convention. Palin’s favorability ratings are little changed from the Sept. 9-14 survey (54% to 51%), but 40% of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Alaska governor, compared with 32% earlier in the month.
By contrast, views of her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, remain virtually unchanged over the same period (53% favorable now, 52% in early September).
Opinions of Palin have declined across most groups, although Republican opinion about the Alaska governor has remained relatively stable. Views of the vice presidential nominee, which were already divided along party lines, have become more polarized. About seven-in-ten Democratic voters (69%) now hold a negative view of Palin, up 10 points from earlier in the month; just 21% say they have a favorable opinion of her. Among independent voters, unfavorable opinions have increased from 27% in mid-September to 37%. Nearly nine-in-ten Republicans (87%) continue to express a favorable opinion of Palin, which is largely unchanged from earlier in the month.
It's hard for any individual's popularity to withstand the vile and hateful onslaught of the Democratic Propaganda machine, a/k/a the press.
Her chance to prove herself will come Thursday night. If successful, the scumbags will work even harder to destroy her with totally biased and unbalanced reporting.
I have less respect for the media and liberal talking heads (some redundancy there) than I ever have.
Ron Paul is only partially right when he says our elected officials are morons, we are a nation of morons, and one party's survival is dependent upon it.
Played like a fucking fiddle.
Her chance to prove herself will come Thursday night. If successful, the scumbags will work even harder to destroy her with totally biased and unbalanced reporting.
I have less respect for the media and liberal talking heads (some redundancy there) than I ever have.
Ron Paul is only partially right when he says our elected officials are morons, we are a nation of morons, and one party's survival is dependent upon it.
Played like a fucking fiddle.
She nor the McCain camp has not done themselves any favors with their way of handling her roll out and subsequent interviews. I'm not going to come out and defend that Daily Kos shit and it was a little rough in the first few days (with McCain's camp trying to throw stuff out on an easy news Friday too)...she rebounded with the Convention speech but they've mismanaged her & her roll out (in terms of media access) ever since. She had glowing reviews coming out of there but did not capitalize on it.
Now this I tend to agree with. They should have just let her be herself. I think she's been trying to come up with the "perfect" or scripted answer instead of allowing her to be her. Allow her to get something wrong, anyone with a brainwave knows they all do. But in today's world of gotcha politics, they held her back.
f
She has every right to futher herself and accede to the highest position in her chosen profession.
Having said that, If I was doing the hiring and you brought me that resume, I'd have kicked as soon as I got to past the education part. Not to mention the related experience part, lol.
FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE:
"ya know, we up here in Alaska, we can see Russia from here"
hno:
She has every right to futher herself and accede to the highest position in her chosen profession.
Having said that, If I was doing the hiring and you brought me that resume, I'd have kicked as soon as I got to past the education part. Not to mention the related experience part, lol.
FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE:
"ya know, we up here in Alaska, we can see Russia from here"
hno:
