Terminator 3 3-day at Intertops

[jcambert]

Oren, you are right, it doesn't mean that. But, I just think it will happen. Just my opinion.

Sound of Silence, there's not alot of buzz? Are you kidding me, man? This is the most talked about film of the summer. And, why am I assuming that it will do more than T2? Because of inflation, number one, and, number two, when there's a film like T2, with such an enormous fan base, with a sequel ten years in the making, it will almost CERTAINLY surpass the previous one.

And, yes, there is less than a 10% chance that this film stays under $45 mil. Based on what numbers? My numbers. There is no way to "prove" something like this. It is implicit that the statement was one of opinion, not fact. After all, this is gambling, isn't it? So, your asking me to "prove" this is absurd. It's like ME asking YOU to prove that there is value in the +300 wager. You can't, can you? I didn't think so.

Anyway, we shall see. I posted my predictions up top $65mil for the 3 day and $100mil for the 5 day.

JP

 

[SoundofSilence]

Terminator 3 is the most talked about film of the summer?

Did you miss Matrix 2?

What about The Hulk?

No one is talking about T3, no one is even excited about T3.

A sequel 10 years in the making? This isn't an epic film here jcambert -- there's a reason Cameron didn't want to direct and Hamilton didn't want to be in it.

As far as your 10% comment -- you are the one that is converting the moneylines to percentages like you have some actual system that says there is less than a 10% chance of it happening... 10% if just an arbitrary # you picked... What about 12%? 17%? You can't tell others there is no value in a wager based off an arbitrary percentage you pick.

Your positions aren't far from mine -- $65 mill for the 3-day weekend, which would be a pretty big failure all things considered.

 

[Oren1]

JCambert, I'm starting to have doubts about this little friendly wager of ours. There's a big difference between betting 100 bucks with a stranger on the internet and paying out 800 bucks to another stranger. How can I be sure you're going to pay out if I win? It will be a whole lot more tempting gor you to welch on the bet than it will be for me if I lose. I'm sure you see that WSEX as their over/under set at 50.

 

[jcambert]

If you want to back out that is fine, however, I will pay if I lose.

SOS, I won't argue with you any longer. Those odds are very easily convertible into percentages and if you think that +300 is a good wager, then you obviously think that there is a greater than 25% chance of this wager coming in for you. I disagree, period. End of discussion. I may be wrong, but, I still disagree.

JP

 

[jcambert]

By the way, SOS, T3 IS the most talked about film of the summer. The Matrix came out mid May. And, T3 is more talked about than Hulk. The later really isn't even that close. The Matrix obviously was more hyped and had greater buzz, but, it's not exactly a mid summer film.

JP

 

[Oren1]

Yeah, I'm going to back out, there's too much risk involved.

 

[Oren1]

Furthermore, I'm going to stay away from the under 50 which is -140 right now. AT first I loved this bet, but they've finally updated the buzz charts and Terminator isn't doing to obad. It's not great, around 58 I think for T3, but Terminator also has 19 points. This could be good for around 50 million this weekend with the enormous screen counts, I don't know.

 

[jcambert]

Ok, fair enough. I think this film is good for at least $60mil for the three day. I think there are WAY too many screens, and WAY too much buzz (despite Sound of Silence).

Keep in mind also, Oren, with the buzz, it's been on the chart for ALOT more days that the Hulk was. I know it doesn't have alot of buzz points but it has been on the chart for QUITE a while, which means it's pretty highly anticipated.

Heck, this could go either way, but, I think the over is the play.

JP

 

[Oren1]

yeah, that's another good point... I don't know, it could go either way. I'd still take the under if it wasn't -140. I'm just going to stick with x2 over t3, that way I can't lose this weekend, which will be a nice change of pace. Pirates of the Carribean is coming up, that might actually be a much needed OVER that I'll be on.

 

[Gillian]

WANT TO MAKE YOUR MONEY BACK!!

THE ODDS FOR T3 @ INTERTOPS JUST WENT UP. I TOOK 60 TO 69 TO HEDGE MY OVER 70 BET.

ODDS ARE UP.

GIL

 

[Oren1]

 

[winkyduck]

according to these (unofficial) numbers, 3 days was $44.1 and 5-days was $72.5

 

[GoBlue]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by winkyduck:
according to these (unofficial) numbers, 3 days was $44.1 and 5-days was $72.5<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I just saw that at boxofficemojo. If true, that will be my second "miss" of the year by less than a million dollars, as I had:

45 million to 58.9 million

Oh well, it looks like I did get Legally Blond 2 correct this weekend, so it's not a total loss.

 

[Oren1]

With the huge Saturday it had, I won't be surprised if it makes more than the projected Sunday gross and ends up squeeking over 45 million, guess we'll find out tommorrow.

 

[wtf]

nice call dude