Week 8, 6pt teaser went 5-3 for 62.5%. I was right for not playing many lines this week. 10 pt teasers would have been 3-0.
Week 9 is gonna be a huge slate Almost all games may fall in system.
Hou +2
NE +3
Clev +1.5
NO -7
Dallas +3
Balti-9
Cincy -7.5
Gb +3
Philly -7
Kc -9
I will take any help I can get in straining out the winners. Let me know what u guys like!
Week 9 is gonna be a huge slate Almost all games may fall in system.
Hou +2
NE +3
Clev +1.5
NO -7
Dallas +3
Balti-9
Cincy -7.5
Gb +3
Philly -7
Kc -9
I will take any help I can get in straining out the winners. Let me know what u guys like!
I mean just at first glance for Thrusday night you'd have to assume Teasing Houston up to +8 or +7.5 would present a tremendous amount of value.. this jets team is just such an enigma its just such a mystery to me how they continue to lose.. they have one of the most talented rosters in football yet now they've found ways to lose games otherwise thought unthinkable.. they did something this week losing vs patriots that had never been done in history of NFL not turning over the ball scoring over 20pts holding your opponent to under 250yds of offense going into Sunday teams who did that were 756-0.. so as much as just at first glance Jets -2 vs a very very good Houston Texans team seems to scream trap/"sucker bet" not sure if I could right now justify wagering money on this jets team.. now on the other hand in terms of Teasers teasing the Texans +2 upwards to get over a touchdown is very intriguing
I agree rich. And I hadn't heard that 756-0 stat before, that's interesting. Also agree that it seams like a trap line. Houston will be without diggs and nico. They will for sure lean on mixon and Stroud has been fairly pedestrian. Reddick not in season shape yet but he will be plugging the middle for a big boost to jets def. I don't really see jets being able to run away in a 2 score game but my confidence level is not super high for this game. I will probably end up opening a small teaser for another 2 units. But I think mostly because it's TNF. I think there are better spots this week. Specifically cincy and Philly to tease under a fg. Cincy off an ass kicking should be back strong to keep playoff hopes alive. Philly should put up 27 at least against Jax which should be good enough with kirk out, possibly etn again and a busted up btj.
so last nights game if those who teased and got 2.5 just covered by the skinny skin skin of their teeth..
theres alot of potential games like you listed that I would consider falling into the teaser category..
but one I really like is -
- Baltimore Ravens if can get it under 3pts I think that is a very solid one this week after losing last week as well as it appearing as the Broncos are a public dog atm getting majority of the $$..
-GB packers is another one I think is a good spot teasing them upto +8.5/9 the only games they've lost this season have been by 5 vs the Eagles in Brazil tech a road game for them and then by 2 at home vs the Vikings where the Packers turned the ball over 5 times that game
then theres a couple more I'm on the fence with
- Eagles teasing them down to -1.5 where the Eagles have been playing much better last couple games seemingly getting things together especially defensively they have impressed me with the adjustments they have made and additions of couple new players who have made a big impact.. but I still worry with this team I just don't have the confidence I have had in them last couple seasons but maybe thats starting to change and they're starting to find their stride.
-Cowboys teasing them up to +9.5 seems very solid as they've looked awful at times in their last couple games but I think they're more than capable of keeping this one close vs the Falcons
-Bengals teased to -1 vs a pesky Raiders squad after Bengals dropping their last one pretty badly vs the Eagles have to expect Joe Burrow to come out strong... the thing is this Bengals defense is awful but the Bengals absolutely have to win this game here..
-Bears teased upto +7 if were able to get over a td would be even nicer obviously but after giving up that Haily Mary for everyone to see gotta expect them to come out to make a statement and redeem themselves that defense should be able to give Kyler Murray and co fits.. expect this one to be a rather close game at the end that can go ether way
theres alot of potential games like you listed that I would consider falling into the teaser category..
but one I really like is -
- Baltimore Ravens if can get it under 3pts I think that is a very solid one this week after losing last week as well as it appearing as the Broncos are a public dog atm getting majority of the $$..
-GB packers is another one I think is a good spot teasing them upto +8.5/9 the only games they've lost this season have been by 5 vs the Eagles in Brazil tech a road game for them and then by 2 at home vs the Vikings where the Packers turned the ball over 5 times that game
then theres a couple more I'm on the fence with
- Eagles teasing them down to -1.5 where the Eagles have been playing much better last couple games seemingly getting things together especially defensively they have impressed me with the adjustments they have made and additions of couple new players who have made a big impact.. but I still worry with this team I just don't have the confidence I have had in them last couple seasons but maybe thats starting to change and they're starting to find their stride.
-Cowboys teasing them up to +9.5 seems very solid as they've looked awful at times in their last couple games but I think they're more than capable of keeping this one close vs the Falcons
-Bengals teased to -1 vs a pesky Raiders squad after Bengals dropping their last one pretty badly vs the Eagles have to expect Joe Burrow to come out strong... the thing is this Bengals defense is awful but the Bengals absolutely have to win this game here..
-Bears teased upto +7 if were able to get over a td would be even nicer obviously but after giving up that Haily Mary for everyone to see gotta expect them to come out to make a statement and redeem themselves that defense should be able to give Kyler Murray and co fits.. expect this one to be a rather close game at the end that can go ether way
Yah I'm glad I didn't have to sweat out last nights game. Denver goes along with one of your "sucker bets". The line looks way too big and +7 should have got the same action. Always good news to tease under 3 when going against a public dog. I like balti here.
I can't trust GB with a hobbled Love and I feel like Reed has been playing on his hurt ankle for last 2 weeks. If Willis is in, the line will fall off +3 anyway, but they gonna get boat raced. The line has Love playing baked in but I will be laying off.
Iggles an Bungholes will be my best bets of week. Saquon gonna run all over the jags. Jax with banged up pass options and then traded away their LT. Bengals will be without Higgins but burrow has been on fire last few games. Can't see them losing with their playoff hopes on the line.
I just feel like there's better places to put money then cowboys. They have often just folded and got blown out many times before. Atl is.hitting their stride offensively. No play for me. Bijan/Algier gonna have a day and run well with the lead.
Bears...I was becoming a believer until they looked bad against a terrible Commander def. Their def will keep them in games but I don't trust Caleb to get a backdoor score to keep us at or inside a td late in a game. Kyler and AZ def has played well as of late. Will post some others that I like a little later.
I can't trust GB with a hobbled Love and I feel like Reed has been playing on his hurt ankle for last 2 weeks. If Willis is in, the line will fall off +3 anyway, but they gonna get boat raced. The line has Love playing baked in but I will be laying off.
Iggles an Bungholes will be my best bets of week. Saquon gonna run all over the jags. Jax with banged up pass options and then traded away their LT. Bengals will be without Higgins but burrow has been on fire last few games. Can't see them losing with their playoff hopes on the line.
I just feel like there's better places to put money then cowboys. They have often just folded and got blown out many times before. Atl is.hitting their stride offensively. No play for me. Bijan/Algier gonna have a day and run well with the lead.
Bears...I was becoming a believer until they looked bad against a terrible Commander def. Their def will keep them in games but I don't trust Caleb to get a backdoor score to keep us at or inside a td late in a game. Kyler and AZ def has played well as of late. Will post some others that I like a little later.
Teasers not discussed above.
Clev +1.5
This is a show me game for Winston. Chargers def and secondary is pretty good. They should hold clev offense in check. If Winston and his bunch of tier 3 receivers can beat it then they will prove to be a play in following weeks. No play.
NOR -7
This may be a buy low chance as NOR are coming off horrible games but Carr is back, Olave is healthy. Their defense besides Lattimore is the healthiest it's been. Lattimore shouldn't matter against a WR core that is garbage and a qb that can't get it to them anyway. I like NOR -7
Sea +1
I would rather not bet against LAR and McVay especially if Puka plays. Sea has been on the down has been been blown out before when they can't run. Also DK will be out.
Kc-9
They should be able to win this but have been flying close to the sun in a lot of games. They are destined to get.burned eventually.
Buff -6
Doesn't fit system but they dominate Mia and always keep Hill in check even when he was in kc. Mia will be able to run on buff but I don't think it will be enough if Tua cant spin it well. Mia in last 2 years has beat bad teams consistently and lose to good teams consistently. Buff plays way better at home, may be finding their stride and should definitely be able to control the clock. I like Buff teased down to 0.
This week I would just prefer to let the med confidence plays go since I like Philly, Buff, cincy a lot. NOR as well but not as much.
Clev +1.5
This is a show me game for Winston. Chargers def and secondary is pretty good. They should hold clev offense in check. If Winston and his bunch of tier 3 receivers can beat it then they will prove to be a play in following weeks. No play.
NOR -7
This may be a buy low chance as NOR are coming off horrible games but Carr is back, Olave is healthy. Their defense besides Lattimore is the healthiest it's been. Lattimore shouldn't matter against a WR core that is garbage and a qb that can't get it to them anyway. I like NOR -7
Sea +1
I would rather not bet against LAR and McVay especially if Puka plays. Sea has been on the down has been been blown out before when they can't run. Also DK will be out.
Kc-9
They should be able to win this but have been flying close to the sun in a lot of games. They are destined to get.burned eventually.
Buff -6
Doesn't fit system but they dominate Mia and always keep Hill in check even when he was in kc. Mia will be able to run on buff but I don't think it will be enough if Tua cant spin it well. Mia in last 2 years has beat bad teams consistently and lose to good teams consistently. Buff plays way better at home, may be finding their stride and should definitely be able to control the clock. I like Buff teased down to 0.
This week I would just prefer to let the med confidence plays go since I like Philly, Buff, cincy a lot. NOR as well but not as much.
Total
6-1 + 23.4 units
#9. Pitt -0/philly -1.5 FILL 6 pt teaser 4 units
#10. Pitt -0/Philly -1.5 FILL 6 pt teaser 2 units
#11. Philly -1.5/Cincy -1 6 pt teaser 8 units
#12. Philly -1.5/Buff -0 6 pt teaser 6 units
#13. Cincy -1/NOR -1 6pt teaser 4 units
#14. Buff -0/OPEN. 6pt teaser 4 units
Open Teasers
#4. Wash-2.5/open 7 pt teaser 5 units
6-1 + 23.4 units
#9. Pitt -0/philly -1.5 FILL 6 pt teaser 4 units
#10. Pitt -0/Philly -1.5 FILL 6 pt teaser 2 units
#11. Philly -1.5/Cincy -1 6 pt teaser 8 units
#12. Philly -1.5/Buff -0 6 pt teaser 6 units
#13. Cincy -1/NOR -1 6pt teaser 4 units
#14. Buff -0/OPEN. 6pt teaser 4 units
Open Teasers
#4. Wash-2.5/open 7 pt teaser 5 units
Week 9 6 pt teasers went 6-5 as a whole. I did see chi at +2.5 briefly but majority would have got +2, as well as I. I don't know about other books but for me a tie in a 2 game teaser is a loss, so I counted it as so.
Week 10 possibilities
Pitt +2.5
Kc -9.5
LAC -7.5
NYJ +1
Hou +3
Mia +2.5
I feel like I saw the board pretty well last week. I shoulda stuck with my read and not trust jameis. Hopefully we can keep it going.
Week 10 possibilities
Pitt +2.5
Kc -9.5
LAC -7.5
NYJ +1
Hou +3
Mia +2.5
I feel like I saw the board pretty well last week. I shoulda stuck with my read and not trust jameis. Hopefully we can keep it going.
Philly -7.5 as well
I think the best bet is looking like the chargers -7.5. This is the last easy W on the schedule for them for a long time. They will have cincy and balt at home and then on road for atl and kc. This is a must win against a garbage titans team.
Mia +2.5
I am liking this too as I this will be tuas 3rd game back and dolphins run game has looked good since defense can no longer stuff the box. They should stay inside 1 score.
Philly -7.5
Probably the last play I would consider. Cooper rush will be behind center and playoff hopes are near gone if dak hits the IR. If Ceedee misses this game it may go to best bet status.
The rest of the games have too many question marks and not worth putting money down. Last 2 weeks teasers have not been hitting at historical rates. Better to keep volume low. Will watch line movement before playing something.
I think the best bet is looking like the chargers -7.5. This is the last easy W on the schedule for them for a long time. They will have cincy and balt at home and then on road for atl and kc. This is a must win against a garbage titans team.
Mia +2.5
I am liking this too as I this will be tuas 3rd game back and dolphins run game has looked good since defense can no longer stuff the box. They should stay inside 1 score.
Philly -7.5
Probably the last play I would consider. Cooper rush will be behind center and playoff hopes are near gone if dak hits the IR. If Ceedee misses this game it may go to best bet status.
The rest of the games have too many question marks and not worth putting money down. Last 2 weeks teasers have not been hitting at historical rates. Better to keep volume low. Will watch line movement before playing something.
