Mike
no problem. as far as the factors for the plays, i follow a rough outline.
1. team must have played at least 6 games during their road trip.
2. Home favorite plays will almost always be under 145
3. Home dog plays can be at any #
4. Road favorite plays will be few
I tend to look at past performances vs. opponent, whips, vs. RHP/LHP, recent LOB %'s, L5 game performance by both teams and multi win/lose streaks. It seems that the 1st game of a homestand often gets a team out of a losing streak (or away from a bad road trip). On the flip side, the change of scenary (road to home) often causes a letdown after a winning road trip. More often than not, I will allow the line to tell me who the play will be on.
For example:
Last nite: play on toronto. horrible roadie, change of scenary. probably would have passed on game if they were a fav.
play on tb. horrible roadie, change of scenary. probably would have passed if they were a dog.
It doesn't always work and the straight record of the plays is better than the posted record here. This is due to a little over analyzing on my part.
Hope that helps a little.
BK
I'd be interested in why you choose to use SF as a play. They are off a fantastic home stand and Wash is off a horrible road trip. Wouldn't this be a classic case for changing scenes (Sf from home to wash......wash from road to home) where it would make this a strong play on wash based on the system?
Just looking for thoughts. I like your basic reasoning behind this.
Sports,
you were correct about the wash/sf game falling into the scene changing play category. but i also, to my accounts' nightmare, took into consideration Lincecum's career stats vs. Wash as well as his season to date performance. i also did get to watch all of Stammen's past outings against Pitt and NYM and was somewhat impressed by the Pitt outing, but less than impressed with the NYM outing. i felt that Lincecum would go 7 or 8 (with few runs against) and Stammen to go 5 or 6 (giving up 2-4 runs). anyway, the bottom line is that i swung and missed. maybe over "statisticked" this one.
btw: this is not part of the 1st game off road trip theory but based on past data, Texas is in a very good spot today.
bol on your selections today.
