Mr. Jones said:
Wagerline consensus is pretty heavy on Louisville. Probably Slim's sheet too.
FWIW, I see it this way. Big dog line. Apparently public still on the fav. So why go through reams of stats, theories about auditions for jobs, etc, etc etc. No doubt some valid info, but...we expect both teams to score. We really know enough about them. Do you want Louisville ahead by two TD's and then TCU punches one in. Later their ahead by three then TCU punches one in.
Finally, likely 60% scenario is at least the back door cover gets you if your even that far ahead to begin with. But you can be down 31 in the last minute and still be in it. Bottom line: you have a huge dog that ain't total chit in a rivalry game. You have what appears to be the Contrarian position. You have a 60% probability right there. You may be wrong but more likely than not you are right. What more do you want? Pull the trigger and enjoy the rest of your afternoon. The best dog price may already be gone. Don't know haven't checked it since I made my bet.