without going into too much detail b/c i dont wanna get my "buddy" Domers panties in a bunch...here is the jist of why i liked the over all week long...
A) I sorta give it away on the Descent....its been Pirates Pirates Pirates Pirates and Miami Vice for 5 str8 weeks....that and kids movies....its been a while for a comedy this week we have one with MONSTER appeal in TN....
B) lack of competition....everyone has seen pirates by now...MV is getting horrible WOM and actually lost wednesday #1 hold to Pirates...that and its R rated and wont clash with TN....all the older releases have run their course as well...Click/Cars/Prada/etc even MHouse are all begining to wind down and lose theatres...the NEW releases...we have another kids movie (i mean come on)....a horror flick which is totally opposite genre and the robin williams movie that has no buzz....all of these 3 are expected to top out around 10million with the robin williams expected to do around $3....bottom line is TN IS the top draw this weekend....
C) TN appeals to many genres....kids (its pg) men teens even women...and lastly yes the redneck nascar crowd...everyone knows how big it is now in the US...this movie is a realistic skit on NASCAR with sponsors and everything...i mean WONDERBREAD as the sponsor of Ferrells car is genuis IMO
D) Ferrell and the wild card Sasha Cohen....i am a HUGE fan of both...I LOVE ALIG show....that has a cult like following....and having seen the previews...Ferrells fanbase should be very strong in supporting this movie....his role in wedding crashers was classic....anchorman was a riot...old school ditto...i expect nothing less in this movie...
E) i like the fact it got bumped to over 3800 theatres
F) im going to see it tomorrow night...im not 1 for big openers and this is one i have been waiting for the last opener i went to was devil wears prada and that was the surpise hit of the summer....
i went back and did some research on comedies...
Meet the Fockers 3518 theatres 13K per 46m 3day gross
Click 3749 theaters 10.5per 40m gross
Nacho 3083 theatres 9220K per 28million gross
Breakup 3070theatres 12kper 39million gross
the 2 most recent big comedies Breakup and Click both averaged over 10K and sailed over 35.5million.....TN is opening in more than both...we need 9342K per theatre to hit this one...if Nacho Libre can average 9220K id be shocked if TN CANT....b/c Nacho looked like the worst movie ever made...
A) I sorta give it away on the Descent....its been Pirates Pirates Pirates Pirates and Miami Vice for 5 str8 weeks....that and kids movies....its been a while for a comedy this week we have one with MONSTER appeal in TN....
B) lack of competition....everyone has seen pirates by now...MV is getting horrible WOM and actually lost wednesday #1 hold to Pirates...that and its R rated and wont clash with TN....all the older releases have run their course as well...Click/Cars/Prada/etc even MHouse are all begining to wind down and lose theatres...the NEW releases...we have another kids movie (i mean come on)....a horror flick which is totally opposite genre and the robin williams movie that has no buzz....all of these 3 are expected to top out around 10million with the robin williams expected to do around $3....bottom line is TN IS the top draw this weekend....
C) TN appeals to many genres....kids (its pg) men teens even women...and lastly yes the redneck nascar crowd...everyone knows how big it is now in the US...this movie is a realistic skit on NASCAR with sponsors and everything...i mean WONDERBREAD as the sponsor of Ferrells car is genuis IMO
D) Ferrell and the wild card Sasha Cohen....i am a HUGE fan of both...I LOVE ALIG show....that has a cult like following....and having seen the previews...Ferrells fanbase should be very strong in supporting this movie....his role in wedding crashers was classic....anchorman was a riot...old school ditto...i expect nothing less in this movie...
E) i like the fact it got bumped to over 3800 theatres
F) im going to see it tomorrow night...im not 1 for big openers and this is one i have been waiting for the last opener i went to was devil wears prada and that was the surpise hit of the summer....
i went back and did some research on comedies...
Meet the Fockers 3518 theatres 13K per 46m 3day gross
Click 3749 theaters 10.5per 40m gross
Nacho 3083 theatres 9220K per 28million gross
Breakup 3070theatres 12kper 39million gross
the 2 most recent big comedies Breakup and Click both averaged over 10K and sailed over 35.5million.....TN is opening in more than both...we need 9342K per theatre to hit this one...if Nacho Libre can average 9220K id be shocked if TN CANT....b/c Nacho looked like the worst movie ever made...
variety's take on the weekend...they cover many points i made in my post about why i like TN over....now the easy part again....all it has to do is WIN 
Lapping the field
'Talladega' on track to be summer hit
By BEN FRITZ
The season's tentpoles may be over, but "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby" is revving up to be one last summer smash.
The Will Ferrell NASCAR comedy is tracking extremely well with men and solidly with women, and its opening is almost certain to be the star's biggest ever, beating the $31.1 million for "Elf." Industryites say the pic even has a shot at the year's biggest comedy bow, surpassing the $40.2 million for "Scary Movie 4."
Three other movies are opening wide this frame, but none is expected to break out beyond the teens. Paramount's "Barnyard" and Lionsgate's "The Descent" likely will be competing for the second and third spots with the second frame for "Miami Vice" and the fifth of "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."
"The Night Listener," the first wide release from the post-Weinstein Miramax, hits only 1,367 playdates and doesn't look likely to gross more than mid-single digits.
Major foreign action is expected again for "Pirates," which should dominate the overseas box office for the fifth straight weekend. It debuts in France, Hong Kong and South Africa.
After a solid day-and-date start in three Asian markets, "Miami Vice" opens this weekend in the U.K., Russia and Mexico.
"Talladega," which opens at 3,803 locations, has been heavily promoted by Ferrell and comes into a market where comedies "You, Me and Dupree," "Little Man" and "Clerks II" are all fading. Tracking shows the pic should do well in urban as well as suburban and rural markets, appealing both to NASCAR fans and those who like to laugh at NASCAR.
"It's a picture that feels like it's going to play throughout the entire country, which is always a nice place to be," said Sony distribution prexy Rory Bruer.
Par and Nickelodeon's "Barnyard," which has seen its release date bounce around several times, opens at 3,311 theaters in a tough market for CG toons, coming just a week after "The Ant Bully" bombed and with "Monster House" just two weeks old.
Pic is tracking a little better than "Bully," meaning a relatively soft bow in the low teens is likely.
Lionsgate is advertising "The Descent," which bows at 2,095, as coming from the same studio as "Hostel" and "Saw," hoping to replicate those pics' success. While horror films that appeal to young men can be tough to track, "Descent" looks likely to bow in the high single digits or possibly low teens.
Lapping the field
'Talladega' on track to be summer hit
By BEN FRITZ
The season's tentpoles may be over, but "Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby" is revving up to be one last summer smash.
The Will Ferrell NASCAR comedy is tracking extremely well with men and solidly with women, and its opening is almost certain to be the star's biggest ever, beating the $31.1 million for "Elf." Industryites say the pic even has a shot at the year's biggest comedy bow, surpassing the $40.2 million for "Scary Movie 4."
Three other movies are opening wide this frame, but none is expected to break out beyond the teens. Paramount's "Barnyard" and Lionsgate's "The Descent" likely will be competing for the second and third spots with the second frame for "Miami Vice" and the fifth of "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."
"The Night Listener," the first wide release from the post-Weinstein Miramax, hits only 1,367 playdates and doesn't look likely to gross more than mid-single digits.
Major foreign action is expected again for "Pirates," which should dominate the overseas box office for the fifth straight weekend. It debuts in France, Hong Kong and South Africa.
After a solid day-and-date start in three Asian markets, "Miami Vice" opens this weekend in the U.K., Russia and Mexico.
"Talladega," which opens at 3,803 locations, has been heavily promoted by Ferrell and comes into a market where comedies "You, Me and Dupree," "Little Man" and "Clerks II" are all fading. Tracking shows the pic should do well in urban as well as suburban and rural markets, appealing both to NASCAR fans and those who like to laugh at NASCAR.
"It's a picture that feels like it's going to play throughout the entire country, which is always a nice place to be," said Sony distribution prexy Rory Bruer.
Par and Nickelodeon's "Barnyard," which has seen its release date bounce around several times, opens at 3,311 theaters in a tough market for CG toons, coming just a week after "The Ant Bully" bombed and with "Monster House" just two weeks old.
Pic is tracking a little better than "Bully," meaning a relatively soft bow in the low teens is likely.
Lionsgate is advertising "The Descent," which bows at 2,095, as coming from the same studio as "Hostel" and "Saw," hoping to replicate those pics' success. While horror films that appeal to young men can be tough to track, "Descent" looks likely to bow in the high single digits or possibly low teens.
The Decent... my buddies are HUGE horro cult fans, they love Saw, Hostel... and they are majorly pumped for The Descent. The OUTSTANDING reviews are going to make it hit the teen millions, just like Variety hinted. I've been nailing OVER 8.5 at Pinny but now it's -160... so I'm going to take the OVER 9 million at a few other books. Easy money!!
Closing numbers for those who like that kind of stuff
Talladega Nights
wsex 37.5 over -180
wwts 40 over -125 !!!
greek 37 over -195
Pinny 37 over -180
Descent
pinny 8.5 over-147
wsex 9 over -115
greek +4 vs barnyard -170
And surprisingly money coming in all morning on Barnyard at Pinny.
It closed with the over 11 favored at -160.
All I can figure is that it may be a value bet based on fact that the number for Ant Bully was 15 or 16 mil and since it bombed Barnyard opened at a much smaller number. Maybe someone knows something. I really havent read any SUPER good news about this movie which is why I took the under to cancel my initial over bet and will still make small profit from + juice both ways.
I think it will do very well just to make the 11 million, let alone 12 or more
Go see Descent this weekend. I will add my eight bucks to the hopefully over 8.5 million total. Counting on some serious buzz on this one to pump it into double digits.
Good luck on your wagers
Talladega Nights
wsex 37.5 over -180
wwts 40 over -125 !!!
greek 37 over -195
Pinny 37 over -180
Descent
pinny 8.5 over-147
wsex 9 over -115
greek +4 vs barnyard -170
And surprisingly money coming in all morning on Barnyard at Pinny.
It closed with the over 11 favored at -160.
All I can figure is that it may be a value bet based on fact that the number for Ant Bully was 15 or 16 mil and since it bombed Barnyard opened at a much smaller number. Maybe someone knows something. I really havent read any SUPER good news about this movie which is why I took the under to cancel my initial over bet and will still make small profit from + juice both ways.
I think it will do very well just to make the 11 million, let alone 12 or more
Go see Descent this weekend. I will add my eight bucks to the hopefully over 8.5 million total. Counting on some serious buzz on this one to pump it into double digits.
Good luck on your wagers
i cant believe wwts moved TN to 40million...yikes...scalps and middles galore if you got down early and want to bet the other way late...
i really had no take on barnyard...ive seen estimates actually as low as single digits and low teens...you never know with kids movies though....i like my bets at the greek vs barnyard...
i actually made a small play myself on OVER Descent before i left for work at wsex...it was a small one b/c pinny had the 8.5 with bigger juice i didnt want to lay the juice there but i also didnt want to get screwed for a lot...seeing it land 8.7m or something like that...i just bet the over9million at wsex..small play....
ive got
over 9million descent at wsex
over 35.5 TN at holly and greek
descent +4.5million at greek (+150/-150)
and its a wrap...glta
i really had no take on barnyard...ive seen estimates actually as low as single digits and low teens...you never know with kids movies though....i like my bets at the greek vs barnyard...
i actually made a small play myself on OVER Descent before i left for work at wsex...it was a small one b/c pinny had the 8.5 with bigger juice i didnt want to lay the juice there but i also didnt want to get screwed for a lot...seeing it land 8.7m or something like that...i just bet the over9million at wsex..small play....
ive got
over 9million descent at wsex
over 35.5 TN at holly and greek
descent +4.5million at greek (+150/-150)
and its a wrap...glta
ditto....just checked...
went to 945 at lowes boston (a nice theatre in the heart of the city)...was sold out (note a MV was also sold out at 9pm so that had me really questioning)...theatre TN was in was unusually small...i tried to count the seats and came up with around 250ish...really thought it shoulda been in a bigger theatre (not sure what their biggest count is)....was only playing on 1 screen (another head scratcher) ...crowd really enjoyed it...i enjoyed it...not gonna say it was best ive ever seen...have to see it again...definitely some lines i was trying to remember but couldnt...
we will see what the fri estimates come in at...ill be at work most of the afternoon...ill pop in late afternoon and see whats up...
(looking back on a few of the comedies i used in my analysis and going back to see what WCrashers and Dodgeball did on their openers...they all averaged over 9k a theatre...id really be stunned if this one didnt hit 35million)
went to 945 at lowes boston (a nice theatre in the heart of the city)...was sold out (note a MV was also sold out at 9pm so that had me really questioning)...theatre TN was in was unusually small...i tried to count the seats and came up with around 250ish...really thought it shoulda been in a bigger theatre (not sure what their biggest count is)....was only playing on 1 screen (another head scratcher) ...crowd really enjoyed it...i enjoyed it...not gonna say it was best ive ever seen...have to see it again...definitely some lines i was trying to remember but couldnt...
we will see what the fri estimates come in at...ill be at work most of the afternoon...ill pop in late afternoon and see whats up...
(looking back on a few of the comedies i used in my analysis and going back to see what WCrashers and Dodgeball did on their openers...they all averaged over 9k a theatre...id really be stunned if this one didnt hit 35million)
