Swirv - Season Long Player Props

[swirv]

BUF vs DEN
Orton over 22 (E)
Watkins under 57.5 -115
F. Jackson under 76.5 rush.rec -115
F. Jackson over 3.5 (E)

SF vs OAK
Kaepernick under 19 -125
Kaepernick under 27.5 rushing -115
Gore over 62.5 -115

SEA vs PHI
Maclin under 5.5 -125
Maclin under 71.5 -115
Matthews over 4.5 -105
McCoy under 75.5 -105
Sanchez over 20.5 -105

ARZ vs KC
Fitzgerlad under 60.5 -115
Kelce under 45.5 -115

 

[swirv]

Tor Smith under 4.5

 

[swirv]

M. Bryant under 48.5 -115
These are 5dimes...

T Richardson under 41.5 -115

 

[swirv]

Fleener under 44.5 -115
Moncrief under 42.5 -115

 

[swirv]

Tor Smith under 4.5

and under any yards you can find

 

[swirv]

Gates under 50.5 -115

 

[swirv]

32-18 some close ones there in the 49ers game.

If you can find a edelman under 6.5 i grabbed that too

 

[swirv]

Gigantic week, and huge run the last 5-6 weeks. Pretty sure best run I have had ever.

Hard to cap this game on props with big spread and packers been blowing people and resting guys so laying off. Need rodgers, julio and lacy to get me 32 points in one league. And HTH with Julio vs Nelson in other and we are tied up.

Dying for some action I made a smaller play on Lacy -20.5 over Jackson -115

 

[swirv]

2014 Summary
	Units	Record
Week 1	0.90	20-17
Week 2	3.38	24-18
Week 3	9.49	28-16
Week 4	-5.99	26-27
Week 5	0.93	22-17
Week 6	0.05	24-23
Week 7	2.16	24-19
Week 8	4.65	22-15
Week 9	13.31	26-14
Week 10	12.94	30-19
Week 11	8.20	26-16
Week 12	14.14	29-14
Week 13	9.11	40-25
Week 14	21.14	36-18
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Regular Season	94.41	377-258

 

[outhousetim]

I did this one too, and a small play on Ryan over for completions (24.5). And I couldn't find anything else!

Gigantic week, and huge run the last 5-6 weeks. Pretty sure best run I have had ever.

Hard to cap this game on props with big spread and packers been blowing people and resting guys so laying off. Need rodgers, julio and lacy to get me 32 points in one league. And HTH with Julio vs Nelson in other and we are tied up.

Dying for some action I made a smaller play on Lacy -20.5 over Jackson -115

 

[swirv]

scratch that D. Adams under 46.5 -125 on 5dimes

 

[swirv]

Caught up on season long stuff.

Interesting WR receiving unders are 72-41 the last two weeks. Not sure if coicindence or maybe December teams running the ball more. From what I can tell this is historically a 50% prop, so 63% from two weeks seems high. Will see if it continues.

Here is stuff is anyone wants to mess around and find player/team trends or whatever.

http://ffslickpicks.com/page/2014-prop-picks.aspx

Also 2014 bet% I'm hitting 74% 73-26 on RB rushing unders, and 5 yr of 69% at 121-54.

other good 5 yr / 2014 positive breakdowns:

TE reception unders 5 yr of 67% 34-17 and 2014 11-4 73%
QB completions unders 5 yr 70% 94-40 and 2014 20-10 67%

This is part of the reason why I did the forumula for the units to maximize what my apparent strength is. This week was 37-18 which is good, but ended up +22.25 units due to the better winning % props hitting. If straight betting it would have be closer to 15-16 units.

Crappy stuff is:

TE receiving over 5 yr of 30% at 6-14, and 38% 3-5 in2014
RB rushing over 5 yr 49% 43-44 and 5-5 50% in 2014

 

[swirv]

Early Bovada play

Manziel over 29.5 rushing -125

 

[swirv]

Early Bovada play

Manziel over 29.5 rushing -125

up to 36.5 that is about the highest but would still take it

 

[swirv]

Hill under .5 rushing -115
Floyd under 4 -130
Bailey under 3.5 -115
Britt under 3 -105

 

[swirv]

Fitz over 4-130

 

[swirv]

PIT vs ATL
Bell over 4.5 -130
White over 5 -140
Brown over 7 -115

OAK vs KC
Rivera under 29.5 -115

BAL vs JAX
Flacco under 21.5 -115

CIN vs CLE
Manziel over 29.5 rushing -115
Manziel under 19.5 completions -115
Green under 6 -115
Green under 87.5 -115
Dalton under 230.5 -115
Hawkins under 45.5

GB vs BUF
Lacy under 68.5 -115

IND vs HOU
Wayne under 46.5 -115
Hopkins over 5 -115
Luck under 26.5 -115

MIA vs NE
Landry under 50.5 -105
Gronkowski under 80.5 -115

NYG vs WAS
Randle under 3.5 -130

If you can find a Olsen over 5 grab it

 

[swirv]

Adding A. Foster over 3 -105

 

[swirv]

Rivera is 39.5

 

[swirv]

DEN vs SD
D. Thomas over 6.5 -105

SF vs SEA
Kaepernick over rushing 22.5 -115
Kaepernick under 18.5 com -115
Gore under 51.5 -15
Crabtree under 4.5 -115
Wilson under 18.5 -115
Wilson under 47.5 rushing -105
Lynch under 2.5 receptions -130
Baldwin under 49.5 -115